How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[MikeyD]

30 minutes ago, Grigb said:

But UKR EW successfully suppresses  RU drones...

I had been wondering that. They must have plenty of ELINT on what frequencies the Russian tactical drones are using, plus all the unexploded ones picked up. One would expect all they need do is broadcast a 'turn right' command and the drones wouldn't be able to fly straight. But that doesn't sounds like something that gets detailed on civilian chat groups.

[SteelRain]

7 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

 

At least there is some hope that the Russians half assed the developement of the KA 52 too.

 

[Beleg85]

9 hours ago, billbindc said:

If Putin had clearly won this round, there are things you would be seeing and things you wouldn't: 

1. You would be seeing a lot more regime PR folks cheering on the boss and baying for blood. Simonyan, Solovyev, Peskov etc. Instead, most of them are being careful to throw a scrap to Putin but not much more. We would also be seeing folks like Patruschev and other major players being out front with statements, taking steps, making arrests. 

2. The faces at Putin's round table wouldn't have been downcast, exhausted and monosyllabic. The whole point of that exercise was to project strength and they did the opposite. Those are men who still don't know when the music stops. 

3. Putin would not have given multiple speeches and they wouldn't have been in response to Prigozhin's or indicated as the day went on more concessions.

4. Prigozhin would very definitely not have been giving jaunty speeches about the efforts of Wagner for the Motherland and asking that very loaded question "What is to be done?" (See Lenin and Chernyshevky on that one).

All of this screams continued instability and factional deal making with Putin in the center trying to come to grips with his straitened circumstances. If I had to guess from the looks at that table, Putin is trying to order a purge and finding out that he simply can't order it. His flunkies can agree but they don't think the ranks will follow through. And if that happens, a lot of elements will come off the sidelines. 

All very good points. They know they will need to yield, even temporarly, to former zek (another hard pill to swallow). Also worth to note Putin in his speech did not singled out Prigozhin name even once, but said traiors will be punished. Perhaps they will try to find some second-rate figures as extra scapegoats/CIA agents now, who poisoned pure and simple Russian minds of mutineers.

Even if Wagner command is dead in the long term, this is sinificant cut to Putin's authority- judiging by people writing on the net, they often see this as well.

 

[Seedorf81]

Even weirder?

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66023631

 

I took some time to look better at the available footage of the "mutiny" to check if I really saw what I thought I saw.

Compared to every other uprising, coup, mutiny and/or civil unrest I read about, saw pictures or camera-footage of, or heard witnesses/participants talk about, the Wagner-advance seemed to show a remarkable lack of stress, chaos and apprehension.

To me this whole thing looked more like an ADHDfilled teenager-schooltrip, than an "everyone's future and lives are very much at stake" high-stress occurence.

Prigozjin is looking remarkable relaxed throughout, which is quite a change from his earlier recent appearances. He is laying his life on the line, not only because of the "failure means death"-probabilty, but if there would be any resistance against this mutiny, he would be the prime target. But he, and his entourage, are all the time behaving like it is a walk in the park.

And look at the way most of the troops behave. Do they act like they expect enemy fire? Are they using every bit of cover while advancing? Are they nervously looking out for snipers or armor? Does it look like they expect any resistance at all? No, they go for coffee and food, sit very relaxed on parkbenches and cafe-terraces, stroll as if they know there will be no resistance. Very strange, especially when you realise that a lot of those soldiers recently were in combat at heavily contested frontlines, which tends to make anyone pretty anxious and alert in an urban situation where enemy fire can be expected any minute.

 

Every other coup or mutiny (etc) had camera-footage and reports that show chaos, excitement and confusion. People being very nervous/agitated. Adjutants, security-guys, messengers and officers, all running around and looking around and gesticulating and a lot of yelling and shouting going on. A continuous reporting and updating of enemy positions, resistance-levels, progression of advancing friendly units, news from the rest of the country, and so on.

I did not see that on a level that I would expect in a "mutiny" that was so sudden, so big and so powerful as this one. Not at all. While the possible, or likely, enemy force could be enormous.

Even when things were unfolding it almost looked to me as if, at least a big part of, the mutineers knew, or at least suspected, that there would be no real resistance.

Maybe they had perfect intel? Maybe it was Wagner self-confidence? Trusting in being lucky? Or, very possible, is my comparison with other mutinies and uprisings wrong?

I don't know what happend, but the fact that even 'Steve" and "TheCAPT" were uniquely shocked, proofs to me that this was one of the weirdest mutinies, and mutiny-endings, EVER.

 

Edited June 27, 2023 by Seedorf81

[FancyCat]

 

[cesmonkey]

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

RU exaggerate their efforts. Rag tag unit that tried to counter attack UKR position was smacked hard with arty. UKR control with arty all approaches to foothold. So, RU actually unable to do anything with ground forces for fear being smacked again. Their current plan is level everything with suicide drones and bombs. But UKR EW successfully suppresses  RU drones and it seems VKS is very reluctant to fly close to he bridge and only toss bomb from a far hoping that eventual they would land close to the target.

On other hand UKR did not put significant forces there yet. At the moment it is more like distraction (or they are waiting for something) 

I would expect that the Ukrainians can hold on to their foothold, if they choose to do so. Still, I wouldn't want to be one of those soldiers tasked with hunkering down to withstand the incoming artillery fire.

Another update on the situation from Russian telegrammer Two Majors:
https://t.me/dva_majors/19563
 

Quote

Antonovsky bridge Kherson region, our coast. Dacha area.
Kherson direction at 11:00
27:06

After aerial reconnaissance reveals the movement of the enemy, we regularly work with cannon artillery and MLRS in the designated area.

The enemy dispersed over buildings and shelters in the amount of about 120 personnel.

The task of knocking the devils out of their positions is complicated by the fact that the enemy is regularly covered by artillery from the right bank of the Dnieper.

 

[FancyCat]

 

[cesmonkey]

Another biting criticism of the Russian leadership from Girkin:
https://t.me/strelkovii/5760
 

Quote

According to the pseudo-press secretary of the pseudo-president, the pseudo-state power has pseudo-strengthened.

 

[FancyCat]

 

[DesertFox]

6 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

Clownshow...

[DesertFox]

LOL! All a big clownshow for the standard Orc that didn't even know Prig was in Rostov and Wagner was marching on Moscow.

 

[pintere]

 

I wonder, where are all those tanks/artillery gonna come from? They’re already struggling to supply enough to the army in Ukraine, and even all the ones Wagner had won’t be nearly enough.
 

On the other hand, this does increase the probability we‘ll finally see a T-34 operational once again

 

[DesertFox]

UR-77 against dug in position with follow up assault by mech plt

 

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[DesertFox]

Everything back to normal with the bunker clown

 

 

[kevinkin]

ISW:

Belarus will not offer Prigozhin or Wagner fighters a true haven if the Kremlin pressures Belarus, however. Putin may be presenting Belarus as a haven for Wagner fighters as a trap. The Kremlin will likely regard the Wagner Group personnel who follow Prigozhin to Belarus as traitors whether or not it takes immediate action against them. Putin notably stated in his June 26 speech that Wagner Group fighters are permitted to go to Belarus and that Putin will keep his unspecified “promise” about Wagner fighters who choose to do so.[9] Putin’s acknowledgement that he made a personal promise, presumably that Wagner personnel who went to Belarus would be safe there, was remarkable. The long-term value of that promise, Putin’s speech notwithstanding, is questionable. Wagner Group personnel in Belarus are unlikely to remain safe from Russian extradition orders if Putin reneges and charges them with treason. Lukashenko previously turned over 33 Belarusian-detained Wagner personnel to Moscow after using them as leverage against the Kremlin in 2020, and there is no apparent reason why he would not do so again.[10]

Sky News:

Lukashenko orders Belarusian army to be at 'full combat readiness'
In the last few moments, Alexander Lukashenko has started speaking to journalists about the Wagner Group's 24-hour mutiny in Russia.

After the events took place, the Belarusian president says he gave all the orders to bring the army to full combat readiness and all forces, including the police, were placed on full alert. 

 

"I said: in any case, do not make a hero out of me, neither of me nor of Putin nor of Prigozhin, because we let the situation slip from our hands, and then we thought that it would resolve itself, but it did not," he says. 

"And two people who were fighting at the front collided. There are no heroes in this case."

More moving parts than a Swiss watch. Yikes. If this isn't a distraction for the Russian system, what else could be?  Ah maybe a faint toward Crimea. 

[Seedorf81]

10 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Everything back to normal with the bunker clown

 

 

The acting is fascinating, but should they get Oscars or "Razzies"?!

 

[A Canadian Cat]

11 hours ago, The_Capt said:

it is a storm that must happen….to be continued

OMG I love it. This thread has been many things over the year or so its been active and how we have serial smut. Fantastic. We offer everything here.

[cesmonkey]

Quote

KEYFACTS
Combat vehicles for Ukraine: Rheinmetall supplying 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks
Jointly financed by the Netherlands and Denmark
Contract worth a figure in the lower three-digitmillion-euro range; delivery to take place in 2024
Denmark and the Netherlands are part of the international tank coalition providing support for Ukraine

 

[Jr Buck Private]

Important milestone for Ukraine.  They have taken land in and around Krasnohorivka.   According to the BBC that's the first time they have retaken land that was stolen back in 2014.

Seems like the offensive has picked up a little steam lately.

 

[cesmonkey]

A Russian helicopter pilot writes in telegram how they choose targets:
https://t.me/milhelipilot/1266

Quote

Dear Romanov, I have been reading your channel for a long time and also love the truth, so I want to clarify one point. If the turntables “work out” the equipment that has already been knocked out, this means that the enemy is trying to pull it out.

It’s just that they won’t let them “work out” the damaged equipment, and the pilots themselves do not decide which equipment to knock out and which not. All work is carried out according to the given coordinates through coordination with the PAN (advanced aviation gunner) and KP (command post) in real time.
Not once have I personally heard about the ban on work on the damaged equipment found at the coordinates (I didn’t see another, the Ka-52 operator, at that moment, at the given coordinates)and there were also cases about work on an already lined one, tk. The APU tried to evacuate her. No one records such a technique “twice”. In the direction where you are, for sure.
If there are no such single targets, then either the NARs will work out the area, or they will “leave” until the targets are identified and the coordinates are clarified.

@milhelipilot

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Carolus said:

My apologies for rambling.

None needed   For sure drones are the thing that everybody is studying in every military and non-state armed group (rebels and terrorists alike).  They are the defining weapon going forward.

6 hours ago, Carolus said:

Coming back to Ukraine, based on the probes (which I truly believe were just probes or recon in force attempts so far - which may very well be the entirety of corrosive warfare; an endless series of probes), what could the West do that really helps?

Mine clearing seems to be a huge issue.

Can mines be detonated by cluster ammunition? Or classic impact artillery? Is it reliable or cost-effective to blast a path down the minefield with a rolling barrage? Does that ruin the field for tracked vehicles? 

Here's the primary problem with mine clearing... to effectively breach a minefield you need to be sure you have effectively breached the minefield.  That might be a silly way to put it, but I think it gets the job done pointing out that the degree of uncertainty a lane is cleared is the degree the minefield is not in fact breached.  Even dedicated mineclearing techniques have a chance of missing some mines, but systems not designed for clearing are assured of missing many mines.

Artillery will only possibly detonate the ones they directly come into contact with.  Close doesn't cut it.  And I'm sure that some amount of mines tossed up by an artillery blast will defy the odds and remain active.  The shell crater itself might be free (stress on might), but getting to it won't be.

6 hours ago, Carolus said:

Mine-clearing vehicles seem to be vulnerable to being targeted since they need to be present at the position and are crewed by people. 

AT- Mines are usually triggered by weight and magnetics. Weight prevents the idea of using a lot of small remote controlled vehicles, since they would not trigger. Using heavy remote controlled vehicles seems expensive.

Correct on all of this.  The weight triggers are a distinct problem for detonation based clearing techniques such as rollers and flails.  Those types of systems require big vehicles making a lot of noise.  They are easy targets.  Smaller unmanned vehicles can only be useful against surface laid mines, and in a field you can never be sure some aren't buried.  In fact, that's a standard technique. 

I don't know the suggested ratio, but something like burying 1 in 4 mines makes sowing the field much quicker and easier to lay down, yet the enemy can't assume the field is potentially visible.  So he has to proceed as he would a minefield that was 100% buried.

Which is the the thing about minefields that is so effective.  The implied threat from mines is enough to shape the enemy's actions.  The defender can bluff and the attacker (if he cares about his forces) can't afford to take changes.

6 hours ago, Carolus said:

What could the West provide that is timely and effective? A hundred old Ford SUVs and ye olde brick on the gas pedal? Would that just create a barrier of scrap metal once the mine field is cleared? Can they be pushed aside with tanks that roll through next?

It has provided pretty much all the weaponry that the West currently has available to it.  The problem seems to be in the execution.  Breaching a well laid out and defended minefield is to the attack what a retrograde action in contact with the enemy is for the defense.  One tiny thing goes wrong and it can go very wrong.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

A Russian helicopter pilot writes in telegram how they choose targets:
https://t.me/milhelipilot/1266

 

So someone was saying that RU pilots are forbidden from hitting damaged equipment for some reason (save ammo?) and an alleged pilot comes in and says it's not so.  That they in fact do exactly that if there is something in their assigned attack zone and there's no active equipment to strike?

Steve

[DesertFox]

Not that anyone had any doubts, but it is good to hear that russia spoke it out in front of the world. Wagner is the state terror organization of russia. So all atrocities of Wagner are atrocities committed by the russian state.

 

 

[kevinkin]

3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Not that anyone had any doubts, but it is good to hear that russia spoke it out in front of the world. Wagner is the state terror organization of russia. So all atrocities of Wagner are atrocities committed by the russian state.

 

“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.”