How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

 

 

[DesertFox]

Seems like we have a "Fun" week ahead. Popcorn galore...

 

 

[DesertFox]

First hints, that RA is deploying its operational reserve(s)

 

 

[Pete Wenman]

Excuse the language - but this is funny and perhaps surprisingly accurate

 

P

[DesertFox]

Slow but steady...Rivnopil taken. Novosilka Axis

 

 

[chuckdyke]

If you make it to Moscow. 

[Teufel]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Shoigu and Gerasimov are likely under a form of house arrest or they are sitting in the basement of some nasty place where fates are often unpleasant.  The fact that Wagner stood down means the MoD is not likely going to do anything.  If there was a threat of the MoD doing something, we'd see videos of Wagnerites in Moscow or at least camped out around it.

Steve

Plenty of interesting angles discussed past few days and I agree that most are plausible scenarios. MoD keeping low profile possibly because GRU rather than FSB are having their hands full. One might argue that FSB is on this or not, no proof of either as mentioned before.
GRU on the other hand I would be hard pressed to believe had anything to do with this.

Could possibly be so that while all focus is on Prigozjin, Wagner and public debate the GRU is turning the MoD upside down. Everyone is suspect by endemic paranoia by Putin and Russians in general. During Cold War, (not so) secret services, primarily the military intelligence was hunting what my father to this day labels “the invisible enemy within”. Why are family anecdotes at all important? Well as enemy of the state, one was forced into service in the most inhospitable environments. They rather keep an eye on you from up close than have you freely roam the general public.

To put it frankly, he would know thing or two of being accused of being collaborator with western governments. Methods through which they requested information were per quote “colorful” and “creative”. Seldom tried to force confessions, rather names of other (to them claimed known) collaborators, plans of the enemy, means of communication with enemy, etc.

If GRU is still the same let put it mildly “psycho circus” it once was - they are cracking down on the MoD. Who they answer to is impossible to know, perhaps none other than Putin but could also be plain and simply Igor Kostyukov. In contrast to many other agencies elsewhere the GRU also comprises of special forces under own command, that actually seen action in Syria not long ago.

Add one last detail to this, in 2022 Admiral Kostyukov suffered from “heartburn” after having some spicy food for dinner. Who prepared that dinner in March 2022 don’t really matter. My point is that treatment for paranoia wasn’t administered simultaneously when treated for heartburn.

Nothing has changed within the so called modernized Russian military, what is going on we can’t know. Probably never will, but if there is one thing I will put my money on it is that while we are all looking at the public circus that is unfolding. The GRU’s invisible enemy is quite possibly real this time. To find that or those individuals the agency is inviting all and everyone to come see the show that is now playing out at the psycho circus.

Edited June 26, 2023 by Teufel

[Bulletpoint]

I don't think Prigozhyn cared about removing Shoigu and Gerasimov at all.

He just used the frustration of his troops to build their loyalty as the sensible commander who wanted to spare them from being shoved into the meatgrinder.

Then he used their loyalty to march them towards Moscow in order to present a credible coup threat to Putin, but it was only because he knew that he would receive a generous counteroffer to call off the rebellion. Then he cashed in on that.

Prig knows that he is now a target for Putin's revenge, but he believes Putin will not be in power too much longer.

[chuckdyke]

Himmler makes the analogy of the assassination of Churchill with an event on the Crimea.

 

[Eddy]

Interesting read from Jack Watling at RUSI. Will only take a few minutes to read and well worth it

Wagner’s March on Moscow Left Unresolved Challenges in its Wake | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

 

[kraze]

48 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

He just used the frustration of his troops to build their loyalty as the sensible commander who wanted to spare them from being shoved into the meatgrinder.

Unless it's Bakhmut.

[Bulletpoint]

11 minutes ago, kraze said:

Unless it's Bakhmut.

Yeah I know, but not talking about what he did, but about the image he wanted to project. Starting with those videos where he hypocritically ranted about not getting enough ammunition, causing his men to die, no fault of his own of course.

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

So far

• The CT protocol in Moscow and Voronezh has been stopped
• Announcement that Dumin (supposed to replace Shoigu) remains in Tula today
• No changes in RU MOD so far (supposed to be already announced)
• The RU Nats are confused, but largely hopeful that it is just cunning plan

Putin is attempting to renege on the deal. Wow.

[Grigb]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Random commentor but I think Grigb might agree, messaging to keep RU Nats from exploding with anger?

Yes. Kremlin is in damage control mode now. Their prop-bots are sending a lot of different messages to minimize RU Nat anger. This one is one of them. 

[Yet]

my hands have been aching for the best part of 2 days, lots of talk but 2 huge questions havent been asked nor answered. 

- Do we know that Putin is alive and in good health?

- FSB is the current leading clan, do we have any idea who their prince to the throne would be in case of an (natural) emergency with Putin? 

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

I don't think Prigozhyn cared about removing Shoigu and Gerasimov at all.

He just used the frustration of his troops to build their loyalty as the sensible commander who wanted to spare them from being shoved into the meatgrinder.

Then he used their loyalty to march them towards Moscow in order to present a credible coup threat to Putin, but it was only because he knew that he would receive a generous counteroffer to call off the rebellion. Then he cashed in on that.

Prig knows that he is now a target for Putin's revenge, but he believes Putin will not be in power too much longer.

I wanted to talk about what Prig actually gained from that incredibly risky performance. Not a lot, at first glance. However, he did receive something intriguing:

• He is now known as the Kremlin's actual de facto opponent. Whatever happens, he is no longer at risk of being accused of being a member of the Ancien Régime.
• Even if he is exiled, this exile is a farce. It is comparable to relocating from one RU region to another. Also it is safer from any assassination attempts because of Luka's stricter security measures, and Misk is just 8 hours away from Moscow by car (AFAIR, 5-6 if you drive fast).

AFU is advancing relentlessly through the forward zone of RU, making the situation on the front worse and worse. Additionally, AFU has a foothold at Antonovsky Bridge, and the RU army appears helpless to stop it (reserves are fighting at Zaporozhye). RU fFrontline soldiers are saying that regrouping from Kherson and Zaporozhye is now a real possibility.

What would you do as a servant of the Ancien Régime if you knew the Regime's days were numbered?

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, Yet said:

my hands have been aching for the best part of 2 days, lots of talk but 2 huge questions havent been asked nor answered. 

- Do we know that Putin is alive and in good health?

- FSB is the current leading clan, do we have any idea who their prince to the throne would be in case of an (natural) emergency with Putin? 

• We do not know. We have no idea if he is still alive or healthy. It's Putin. To keep people from examining his poop, he even has a poop collector that follows him around. All we can conclude is that he or his doppelganger is most likely still alive. Additionally, his health is at good-enough-to-prevent-heritage-war level.
• Nikolai Patrushev. Rumored to be number 2 in RU. His issue is that the RU public hardly knows him as a leader. He is also viewed as being equivalent to Putin. Politically, for instance, he would be easily defeated by Prig.

[cesmonkey]

Interesting summary from Russian Telegrammer Two Majors about Russia's challenges for the counter-battery fight:
 

Quote

And again about the counter-battery fight.

Having summarized some information from the fronts, we will draw our subjective conclusion.

1. It's hard. Guess what, you have to learn it. Shoot from an artillery gun. This is an extremely difficult process, especially if the enemy is also hitting you. Judging by the number of requests for "shooting tables" from front-line soldiers for different types of guns from all sectors of the front, not all artillerymen have the required level of training, which does not negate their prowess and contribution to the SVO. Firing tables can be found at the Secretariat of the Two Majors, and EVACU is strength. And all the other artillery schools, so vehemently reduced first by Serdyukov, and then by Shoigu.

2. We need appropriate counter-battery firing systems.We have "Zoos", but not very many yet. They are expensive. The enemy has many American ones.

3. Drones are needed to track the results in each artillery regiment and art unit. Realizing that 90 percent of the wounded and killed in this war - as a result of artillery actions, we help artillery regiments and subunits with drones. There is also Romanov's instruction on how to quickly get stitched good and even large drones from the Ministry of Defense. But it is necessary to push through the command (they are afraid to sign).

4. Wear of trunks.When the gun barrel wears out, it starts to hit inaccurately. It is necessary to make new guns, barrels, repair old ones. And do not lie that this should not be done.

5. Precision munitions . They say that Krasnopol is worth its weight in gold. And where they say from the TV that it was "Krasnopol" - it was not them. And a bunch of regular ones. They just show the final frame, without a long transformation of the area into a lunar landscape.

6. Range of guns. In terms of performance characteristics, it is higher for NATO guns. The same M777 hit further and more accurately.

In general terms, yes. Ask the opinion of the gods of war in the smoking room. In smoking rooms, they usually learn a lot. And the lesson plan is bull****.

 

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I don't think Prigozhyn cared about removing Shoigu and Gerasimov at all.

He just used the frustration of his troops to build their loyalty as the sensible commander who wanted to spare them from being shoved into the meatgrinder.

Then he used their loyalty to march them towards Moscow in order to present a credible coup threat to Putin, but it was only because he knew that he would receive a generous counteroffer to call off the rebellion. Then he cashed in on that.

Prig knows that he is now a target for Putin's revenge, but he believes Putin will not be in power too much longer.

During the heat of "battle" I thought something along the same lines. The deal: retain, rest and re-fit his troops while placing them in operational reserve for a while. The last part is really the wild card since we are unsure what the true goal of the thunder run was e.g. a real coup or a flamboyant bargaining chip that allows some to save face and other to lose it. 

[Yet]

33 minutes ago, Grigb said:

• We do not know. We have no idea if he is still alive or healthy. It's Putin. To keep people from examining his poop, he even has a poop collector that follows him around. All we can conclude is that he or his doppelganger is most likely still alive. Additionally, his health is at good-enough-to-prevent-heritage-war level.
• Nikolai Patrushev. Rumored to be number 2 in RU. His issue is that the RU public hardly knows him as a leader. He is also viewed as being equivalent to Putin. Politically, for instance, he would be easily defeated by Prig.

Patrusev is also 70+. Dyumin is also FSB, GRU and now Mod right? 

maybe we have to keep an eye open how any of these (or other) are being staged. Might be RU needs true glue or a real hero to be staged to prevent a fallout. 

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Harmon Rabb]

LOL!

[cesmonkey]

From a few weeks ago, a look at the impact and popularity of Wagner's propaganda films:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/general-news/russia-wagner-group-prigozhin-propaganda-movies-1235507691/

[akd]

3rd Assault Brigade clearing more trenches:

 

[Beleg85]

7 hours ago, Grigb said:

So far

• The CT protocol in Moscow and Voronezh has been stopped
• Announcement that Dumin (supposed to replace Shoigu) remains in Tula today
• No changes in RU MOD so far (supposed to be already announced)
• The RU Nats are confused, but largely hopeful that it is just cunning plan

Worth to introduce to large audience the person of Aleksey Dyumin. This is background persona of this drama for now, but long ago some russologists viewed him as good candidate for Putin successor/replacement.

Guy has excellent history, not that different than Putin's own in early stage. Was the deputy head of SBP (one of personal security agencies), later deputy chief of GRU, one of chiefs of successfull and almost bloodless (see some paralells...?) takeover of Crimea. Was briefly chief of staff of Army, now serve as governor of Tula. So he served in intelligence, military and as civilian governor, very "Roman" career. And realtively neutral, too.

He was always well groomed in political terms of Putinist Russia, loyal and not overly ambitious (or not showing it), but that supposed neutrality and bleakness was the case also with young Putin- and may play huge role if bulldogs start to tear the rug. Not saying he put any strings in this show by himself, but since power at Kremlin is visibly shaken now, worth to read some more about him, and several other big fishes o this tank.

Edited June 26, 2023 by Beleg85