How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

None of this makes a lick of sense.  Wagner owned the M4 up to 200kms of Moscow.  They basically were holding Rostov.  And now “sorry, just a temper tantrum?  Got a bit Hangry before lunch”. Prig retires to Belarus, Wagner basically dissolved and Putin goes back to meetings for the summer Corn Festival?

He retires to Belarus, or he is Lukashenko's successor? The Wagner guys were tired of being killed by Ukrainian PGMs, but they can handle the Belarusian military before lunch. It would actually make Prig more of a problem for NATO, lots of other implications.

Edit: Fancy_Cat got there first.

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by dan/california

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

  

I am never going to say that I know what is going on as this is off the charts the most bizarre coup I know of, but the one thing I'm very certain of is that this is NOT over.

Prig is most likely pulling a Putin... say he's standing down, make it look like he's getting ready to leave, and then don't leave.  Why?  To buy some time?  To establish credibility for being the "adult in the room"?  No clue.  I just don't think this is over.

[Edit for this update from Grigb]

Leaving Rostov to go where and to do what once they get there?

If this *is* over then it is because something much larger and more fundamental happened that we don't have any evidence of yet.  Which effectively means, from our perspective, it isn't over.

The fat lady has not sung!

Steve

The big question is:

1.) are they cheerring for Prig, or

2.) are they cheering because Wagner is leaving?

[FancyCat]

Recall our discussions about potential breakup scenarios for Russia? For example, the slow decline and continued allegiance to Moscow/Putin/central government yet just continued fracturing under the surface?

Random commentor, but my point is that ruling Russia requires a lot of alliances and agreements made with the right people, and Prig probably isn't able to make them being who he is, he's just likely to end up the puppet of some Moscow faction, get pushed into a vulnerable corner where they get to stab him in the back.

 

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by FancyCat

[sburke]

11 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Recall our discussions about potential breakup scenarios for Russia? For example, the slow decline and continued allegiance to Moscow/Putin/central government yet just continued fracturing under the surface?

Random commentor, but my point is that ruling Russia requires a lot of alliances and agreements made with the right people, and Prig probably isn't able to make them being who he is, he's just likely to end up the puppet of some Moscow faction, get pushed into a vulnerable corner where they get to stab him in the back.

 

 

perhaps.  Maybe even Prig was shocked at how weak Moscow turned out to be.  it is as believable as anything else right now.

[kevinkin]

29 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Could this stranger than strange day have underlying motives like these..

 

Someone once said that it's not real in Russia unless their are a lot bodies. This is a very odd coup. 

[DesertFox]

We saw these already, but not in the closeup. Losses from 7th June in and around the minefield.

 

 

[kevinkin]

TV News Report:

Erdoğan calls Putin. Willing to help with a peaceful resolution of - well - everything I guess. 

https://www.aol.com/news/turkeys-erdogan-urges-russias-putin-150703738.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9zZWFyY2gueWFob28uY29tLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAA1FGtRtC8nI1E_twj9NJEtx76IFwrEWkw2BEzTQFPhJRmWBee_oRPuqDfLyxIh8M_8LC0Epr5V0JD0RxRrpx3G7IRMySMWHNZB0gKp5VncDBqtD9Gc3xSPNo15kyXBfZRQfx3gdJpYJQdt1uz78d9vJ5OG9nsVDaQ6w5rr3IW2g

Edited June 24, 2023 by kevinkin

[sburke]

so I am struggling to understand what the Wagner troops got out of this.  The revolt was partly about MoD forcing PMCs to sign contracts and what they got out of the deal is contracts.  So they risked everything to get what they already had?

This stinks worse than the pot the kids smoke these days.

[kevinkin]

Nothing like a road trip to clear your head of the thinking about death everyday. 

[FancyCat]

31 minutes ago, sburke said:

so I am struggling to understand what the Wagner troops got out of this.  The revolt was partly about MoD forcing PMCs to sign contracts and what they got out of the deal is contracts.  So they risked everything to get what they already had?

This stinks worse than the pot the kids smoke these days.

I think they get to choose, sign contracts with MoD to stay in Ukraine or stay with Wagner and be deployed to one of Wagner's other missions. Originally it was sign contracts with MoD to stay in Ukraine?

[Doc844]

Did not see this curveball coming.  So Prig basically gives Putin a political slap, like back of the hand slap, in front of the whole world, is on the verge of 'winning' then says, only joking.  This smells rotten.  Plus why would Lukashenko broker a deal that basically puts Prig on his couch.  A man who is hanging onto power literally invites the whole pack of wolves in to his house, nope, doesn't make sense.  This thing, whatever it is now still has some yards to run  . 

[Bulletpoint]

So much is unknown about this situation that it's impossible to really analyse it from the outside.

Just a wild guess, but I wonder if Ukraine is also pulling some strings here?

When Prigozhyn saw that the war was not going well, probably he started to look for alternative options.

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

None of this makes a lick of sense.  Wagner owned the M4 up to 200kms of Moscow.  They basically were holding Rostov.  And now “sorry, just a temper tantrum?  Got a bit Hangry before lunch”. Prig retires to Belarus, Wagner basically dissolved and Putin goes back to meetings for the summer Corn Festival?

I think it's obvious that Prigozhin represented a faction and that faction got what it wanted so they ended it.

Some things to note: 

1. They have to have been a very strong in the FSB and MoD. There's simply no other way this stays quiet through months of planning and 100's of participants. There's no other way so many elements simply stood aside. 

2. While the war in Ukraine is still ongoing, taking Putin's place is a poisoned chalice. The hard right will punish anyone who ends it. So...you force Putin to the table, you make him give you large concessions in the background and you have a gun to his head since virtually any 10,000 troops can take him out with some luck and planning. But you keep him there to own the loss when it inevitably arrives. 

If you look at things that way, I think it makes quite a bit of sense.

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

You think they Gorbachev-ed him?  Will need to see it to believe it.  Putin is way too dangerous to keep alive and in Russia - too many connections and strings.  Prig (of whoever) will be watching over their shoulder for years.  Unless Putin dies of natural causes quickly and quietly after the transfer of power.

Yup, unlikely somebody like Putin give away. His tasrist spell is broken, he was challanged, humilaiated and neded to parle with a thug from a prison. Steve is also on point, he must be neutralized somehow sooner or later.

Excellent analysis and good questions posted in last pages. While coup clearly showed mafia character of Russian state and marked Prig as (perhaps reluctant) winner, I wouldn't write off Putin- he may treat it as just first round. He may prepare better now against possible coup, if he still holds direct power. Note we don't know know what is happening inside Kremlin walls, perhaps they have more heated discussion now as what next, than during entire Wagner ride to Moscow itself.

If rumours of Wagner being stationed in Belarus now along the borders with Ukraine and NATO (not good sign) come true, it creates very intersting set of questions for Lukashenka himself. Crucial is issue of logistics of this force and its size and equipment. If Prig will have it at least half independent, he can now be rightly viewed as basically a strongmen, perhaps very vital potential ally for Luka in future power struggles. Bulbenfuhrer play it nicely again and came on top.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Beleg85

[billbindc]

26 minutes ago, Doc844 said:

Did not see this curveball coming.  So Prig basically gives Putin a political slap, like back of the hand slap, in front of the whole world, is on the verge of 'winning' then says, only joking.  This smells rotten.  Plus why would Lukashenko broker a deal that basically puts Prig on his couch.  A man who is hanging onto power literally invites the whole pack of wolves in to his house, nope, doesn't make sense.  This thing, whatever it is now still has some yards to run  . 

Prigozhin could really use 5000 hard *** Russian soldiers who have no local ties and no allegiance to Moscow when/if things get uglier in Belarus. They can't run Belarus on their own either. The old bastard is cannier than I expected.

[pintere]

Best theory of what happened that I’ve heard (though I disagree about the Chechens):

"Verdict from some official news sources as to the about-face is apparently that Prigozhin had been counting on public and some high-level support for his coup, but not enough materialised even with the defections, while a force capable of dislodging him in Rostov in the form of the Chechens was appearing to his south.

Perhaps Prigozhin realised he might not take Moscow even if he got there, and even if he took Moscow he can't hope to hold it. So when Lukashenko called to cut a deal where he and his forces could get out alive without charges, he took it. The coup was well-planned, but circumstances beyond his control prevent him from succeeding."

[billbindc]

9 minutes ago, pintere said:

Best theory of what happened that I’ve heard (though I disagree about the Chechens):

"Verdict from some official news sources as to the about-face is apparently that Prigozhin had been counting on public and some high-level support for his coup, but not enough materialised even with the defections, while a force capable of dislodging him in Rostov in the form of the Chechens was appearing to his south.

Perhaps Prigozhin realised he might not take Moscow even if he got there, and even if he took Moscow he can't hope to hold it. So when Lukashenko called to cut a deal where he and his forces could get out alive without charges, he took it. The coup was well-planned, but circumstances beyond his control prevent him from succeeding."

I'm not sure I buy that. The Chechens attacking Prigozhin and Wagner could have had quite intense ethnic and political consequences in Russia. It would immediately let Wagner claim to be defending the motherland against the hated Muslims and would sorely tempt the regular army to intervene to teach the TikTok warriors a lesson. Kadyrov has certainly given the Russian army cause to hate him. 

Of note, the Chechens also didn't seem to be all that ready to fight. There' is a school of thought that moving on Rostov was more about being positioned to go immediately back to Chechnya if things went sideways.

[The_Capt]

24 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I think it's obvious that Prigozhin represented a faction and that faction got what it wanted so they ended it.

Some things to note: 

1. They have to have been a very strong in the FSB and MoD. There's simply no other way this stays quiet through months of planning and 100's of participants. There's no other way so many elements simply stood aside. 

2. While the war in Ukraine is still ongoing, taking Putin's place is a poisoned chalice. The hard right will punish anyone who ends it. So...you force Putin to the table, you make him give you large concessions in the background and you have a gun to his head since virtually any 10,000 troops can take him out with some luck and planning. But you keep him there to own the loss when it inevitably arrives. 

If you look at things that way, I think it makes quite a bit of sense.

Maybe, but what faction?  This may be the missing piece.  One thing is damn sure, Russia is not more stable than it was last Wed, in fact likely quite the opposite.  Putin has been shown to have feet of clay to the world…and he ran.  This might just be the opening moves in a larger game, but whoever is behind this just had their bishop do a thunder run that nearly tossed the entire board.

As to Wagner in Belarus - so now his base of power is 350km from Moscow instead of 1000…how is this a good thing for Putin?  Also didn’t Prig publicly call this entire war BS and outed the actual numbers of dead?  Not sure how he walks back from that and leads a northern offensive conveniently wearing down the forces he has left so he becomes more vulnerable….but it has been a freakin weird day, so there is that.

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I'm not sure I buy that. The Chechens attacking Prigozhin and Wagner could have had quite intense ethnic and political consequences in Russia. It would immediately let Wagner claim to be defending the motherland against the hated Muslims and would sorely tempt the regular army to intervene to teach the TikTok warriors a lesson. Kadyrov has certainly given the Russian army cause to hate him. 

I also don't buy this theory about Wagnerites fearing Chechens.  For all its many, many faults, relative to the rest of Russia's security forces... Wagner are elites.  They are also egomaniacs that likely view Kadyrov's TikTokers as frauds.  They would expect, probably even relish, the chance to mow them down in large numbers. 

Regardless, Kadyrov would pull them back to Chechnya the second he thought things were out of Putin's control to fix.  Kadyrov knows he has to protect his home turf above all else.  So no, I think the "threat" from Kadyrovites is not something that tipped the balance.

9 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Of note, the Chechens also didn't seem to be all that ready to fight. There' is a school of thought that moving on Rostov was more about being positioned to go immediately back to Chechnya if things went sideways.

I hadn't thought of that, but oh boy does that make sense.  There would be zero (and I mean zero) opposition for Kadyrov withdrawing from there and the entire withdrawal would take maybe 1 day.

However, it could also be that was the most logical place for Kadyrovites to be located.  Close to their bases of support, not near Moscow (which would be alarming to the locals), and also where regular MoD forces are extremely thin.

Steve

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I'm not sure I buy that. The Chechens attacking Prigozhin and Wagner could have had quite intense ethnic and political consequences in Russia. It would immediately let Wagner claim to be defending the motherland against the hated Muslims and would sorely tempt the regular army to intervene to teach the TikTok warriors a lesson. Kadyrov has certainly given the Russian army cause to hate him. 

Of note, the Chechens also didn't seem to be all that ready to fight. There' is a school of thought that moving on Rostov was more about being positioned to go immediately back to Chechnya if things went sideways.

Given the entire encyclopedia of unknown unknowns at the heart of this thing right now, we should perhaps get back to thinking about how Ukraine wins this war regardless?

[kluge]

25 minutes ago, pintere said:

Best theory of what happened that I’ve heard (though I disagree about the Chechens):

"Verdict from some official news sources as to the about-face is apparently that Prigozhin had been counting on public and some high-level support for his coup, but not enough materialised even with the defections, while a force capable of dislodging him in Rostov in the form of the Chechens was appearing to his south.

This largely echoes the ISW assessment from yesterday- which was put out before it was apparent that Wagner would take Rostov without facing serious opposition. Will be interesting to hear what they have to say about all this once today's report finally comes out.

[The_Capt]

31 minutes ago, pintere said:

Best theory of what happened that I’ve heard (though I disagree about the Chechens):

"Verdict from some official news sources as to the about-face is apparently that Prigozhin had been counting on public and some high-level support for his coup, but not enough materialised even with the defections, while a force capable of dislodging him in Rostov in the form of the Chechens was appearing to his south.

Perhaps Prigozhin realised he might not take Moscow even if he got there, and even if he took Moscow he can't hope to hold it. So when Lukashenko called to cut a deal where he and his forces could get out alive without charges, he took it. The coup was well-planned, but circumstances beyond his control prevent him from succeeding."

That is a helluva theory.  “A force capable of dislodging him from Rostov”.  That is an urban area of 1.1 million.  If he decided to dig in even with a few thousand he could have Fallujah-ed it likely for weeks.  He had enough troops to insurgency things for months while controlling the freakin RA logistical backfield.  Wagner not only had the means, they had the position…they were dominating the RAs interior lines largely unopposed. 

I do not think it was threat of military force that backed him down, he already crossed that threshold when they started shooting down RUAF assets.  The guy had the southern theatre HQ and likely the critical node in the RA C4ISR backbone - even threatening to blow that all to hell would get people thinking twice.

Whelp, I guess in ten years we can have a Hot Thread reunion and all go “remember that weekend in Jun 23?”

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Given the entire encyclopedia of unknown unknowns at the heart of this thing right now, we should perhaps get back to thinking about how Ukraine wins this war regardless?

Go back to attacking.  The RA has been further cognitively and conatively shaped.  Every RA unit has to be asking the same as us “what the hell happened?”  While wondering who is actually in charge.  Good time to put some pressure on.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Recall our discussions about potential breakup scenarios for Russia? For example, the slow decline and continued allegiance to Moscow/Putin/central government yet just continued fracturing under the surface?

Random commentor, but my point is that ruling Russia requires a lot of alliances and agreements made with the right people, and Prig probably isn't able to make them being who he is, he's just likely to end up the puppet of some Moscow faction, get pushed into a vulnerable corner where they get to stab him in the back.

 

 

The above is, I think, probably part of what happened.

There's no chance AT ALL that this was all Prig.  We've discussed this at length since Prig became a regular facet of this war, especially after he started challenging the status quo.  Alone he just isn't connected enough to be able to pull of a successful coup.  I also doubt that he managed to get FSB and MOD personnel to join him.  My thinking is it was the other way around.

Let's reexamine the underlying reason for this coup, which is the war is lost unless there's some dramatic change in military strategy.  Putin isn't willing to listen to alternatives, the MoD doesn't seem capable of changing on its own.  Those who understand this reality eventually get to the point of trying to do something about it.  Pretty much any autocratic government fighting a losing war has this dynamic.

So over many, many months there's been a coalition formed within the MoD, FSB, elites, and Wagner to (initially) gripe about things.  Griping turns to thinking of alternatives, thinking turns to planning, and in this case planning into action.  But Prig has always been a means of achieving change, not being the one to be in charge of that change.

The conspirators decide the time is right to act.  Conspirators within the MoD make resources available to Prig, such as AD and tank transporters.  The FSB keeps Putin in the dark and readies to keep Prig's channels of communications open during the coup when they could, and should, shut them down.  The elites start making concrete political plans to take political control (mind you, it COULD be with Putin as a figurehead).  Prig, of course, starts mouthing off in calculated ways and keeping his forces intact and concentrated in the Donbas.  And all the while everybody keeps this sort of information away from those that might tell Putin.

Prig goes about his takeover of Rostov and march on Moscow with the active assistance of the conspirators.  They succeed wildly.  Maybe too much or too fast.  Something behind the scenes goes wrong or a key member gets a better offer.  Prig realizes that he's either going to topple Putin and be stuck with the results or he's going to be hung out to dry.  Prig cuts a deal for himself and, to some extent, Wagner.  The coup fails.

Maybe this whole thing fell apart precisely because Wagner are mercenaries and can not be relied upon.  If these were MoD of FSB forces with this sort of advantage, they probably would have pressed on thinking they could rule if they succeeded.

 

Lots of speculation here, but basically I think "something behind the scenes defeated the Coup" is more likely than "Putin caved and we just don't know it yet".

Steve