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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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15 minutes ago, womble said:

Having seized the SMO (and thus the regime) by the jugular in Rostov, it makes no sense that they send a "flying column" north, unsupported, unless they have cast-iron certainty that they won't be opposed or cut off. For me, this signals that Prig is confident he has friends in high places. Stalling them at a river crossing and blocking them from withdrawal, reinforcement or resupply shouldn't be beyond even Shoigu and Gerasimov's limited conceptual and physical resources, which seems to still include the RU air force, and definitely includes more artillery and shells than the flying column could possibly be carrying alongwith themselves. 

I think there's simply no army left in Russia to stop them. Remember the disgraceful "Victory Day" with a single T34? It's that simple.

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17:15

https://t.me/cmiye/11344

Wagner is presumably driving in four columns. They will separate off before the bridges in the Moscow area. Stupino, Ozera, and Kolomna have bridges. They will go to Kolomna via Venev. The Central Ring Road is located behind it.

17:24

https://t.me/Separ13_13/15529

Video claim: Rostov:  Wagnerites are arresting chechens (we do not know if it is truly chechens)

https://t.me/notes_veterans/10531

The Wagner forward patrols are attempting to seize control of the bridges in their columns' path. With the assistance of trucks, police personnel are attempting to obstruct traffic on the motorways going to Moscow. They do not engage PMCs.

17:29

https://t.me/Separ13_13/15532

Meanwhile Wagnerites at Rostov…

https://t.me/dva_majors/19144

RT suspects there are Wagnerites in civilian clothes near Rostov HQ. it is calm but tense. A lot of civilians around

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35 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Funny. Can't say the Wagnerites have no support by civilians.

Wagners have big popularity among Russians, especially among teens and young people. Wagners media skillfully created aureola of "tough, but brave and fair warriors" led by successful businessman, which directly says sharp true, using obscent lexic. On background of fails, rigidity and total corruption of Putin's officials, created caste neo-feudalism, Prigozhyn managment system, directing for maximum effectiveness and creation of social lifts for all, who proved own effect in team work, considers as "story of success" and it just fasionable. Enough of people, even who position themeselves as "liberals" willingly buy different merch with Wagner attributes and images of Prigozyn (on t-shirts, for example).

Also Prigozhyn, who was convicted has popularity also because he stick to so-called "poniatiya" (in Russian jail slang is means "notions" - very tough codex of criminal life). For the nation with very big number of people, who were convicted, where even among teens is very popular convicts sub-cilture A.U.E. his behavior and his "criminal code of honor" is very close and more corresponds to notions of justice than official authotities. 

He also attractive for older (and younger) people, following to left ideas, due to his sharp anti-oligarch rhetoric (though he is oligarch himself) 

Putin's regime is failing in expectation of Russians, willing "tough ruling hand" and "we can repeat", so when new strong "alfa-male" appeared on horizon, many Russians will be glad to piss off their old "alfa-idol"  

Edited by Haiduk
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6 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Imagine being a dictator of a nuclear armed country and having this pitiful joke as protection against armed rebellion that aims at ending you...

Edited by Huba
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26 minutes ago, Huba said:

If legit, it is I think a first such declaration from an army unit:

 

429th regiment of 19th MRD (Northern Osetia), which now on positions near Melitopol, claimed own support of Prigoizhyn

Also in TG of 205th motor-rifle brigade, deployed in Kherson oblast teher are talks theya are ready to leave own position and go to help Wagners if this need. 

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23 hours ago, sross112 said:

Just my thoughts. I think Prig is working to save Putin and in doing so creating further opportunity for himself. He is telling the people that Putin was lied to by the FSB and MOD. This gives Putin the out that he needs. When stuff is terminally sideways Putin can ruthlessly purge the MOD and any rogue FSB elements left as well as anyone else he wants to tie to the conspiracy. Then he can pull what is left of the RA back into Russia and announce how he was misled and fooled by the bad actors he just had shot against the Kremlin walls. How they were responsible and did it because of whatever reason (greed, hate, or even a planned military failure that would dethrone him) and that he figured it out and is now, once again, saving the Russian people from a horrible mistake. 

Prig and Kadryov are close supporters of Putin and both have been naysaying the MOD for awhile now. My vote for the main scape goat is the MOD with a splash of FSB. I could see this all happening as a play to save Crimea, so possibly this summer. Putin announces withdrawal from Donetsk and Luhansk as well as any other occupied territories, except Crimea. He will use all his tankies to put pressure on the west and therefore Ukraine to cease hostilities. If we see an uptick in the propaganda when the RA really starts losing it will be a good sign that something along these lines is being prepared. 

His hopes are that the Russian people will believe his lies and he will remain in power, his well funded supporters in the west will parrot his lies and have a cooling affect on Ukraine, and that his apology for the schemes of others, not him, will allow the war to end with Crimea still Russian. 

So who strikes first? Putin or the MOD? The MOD have to realize they are the in the cross hairs and if they don't act first it will be all over. Will it happen after the first large scale collapse, or will it be when the RA has totally collapsed? 

I didn't see Prig being the catalyst, I just thought he was setting the stage for the coming events between Putin and the MOD. He states that Wagner is still loyal to Putin and only after the MOD, and the only power that the MOD can use to stop him is the Army. Considering the Army is either dead or in Ukraine, the taking of the LOCs from Rostov and Voronezh neuters the MOD. There will be no tanks at the Kremlin that don't belong to Putin and Wagner. 

Putin's speech condemning Prig's actions had to happen for the internal consumption. Putin is still playing the role of being deceived. Just like in a poor B movie script, the heroes (Wagner) will ride into town and deliver the irrefutable evidence to the king who will then understand that his inner circle have been against him feeding him lies and that the rebels are actually loyal servants. 

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Ah, so that's the explanation. The whole thng is just a mis-understanding between patriotic Russians set up by those subtle, cunning, rulers of the universe at British Intelligence!  Would be entertaining if HMG actually had the powers the Russians seem to ascribe to it.

 

 

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17:36

https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/26856

Rumor - forward Wagnerites units have reach Moscow region

17:37

https://t.me/cmiye/11346

RU soldiers mood

What pleases me immensely  now is the general position of the fighters who are at the front. They are geting ready for events in the rear:

– We are not ready to shoot at our own. Whatever the order is. We all came out of the same hell.

This is from both the Wagnerians, that from the loyal units.

The common desire of the fighters is a political settlement of the conflict, not a forceful one.

And certainly not a one-sided punishment of the rebels. It would be unfair, in their opinion.

https://t.me/Separ13_13/15536

Storm-Z unit (most likely zeks) supports Prig

17:40

https://t.me/dva_majors/19154

Local police reports forward Wagnerite units are in Moscow region

17:55

https://t.me/strelkovii/5689

Girkin

According to eyewitnesses, columns of rebellious Wagnerians (sounds like something out of ancient Rome) entered the Moscow region and passed through the village of Barabanovo (Kashir location 54.716279, 38.162652). Moscow is about a two-hour drive away. @oreshkina The Okas River is the final major obstacle...

 

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Got to love the sense of humor:

Speaking to BBC World Service Newshour, Saks says just before Russia began its 2022 attack on Ukraine the world thought Russia had “the second most powerful army in the world”.

“Yesterday everybody knew that Russia was the second most powerful army in Ukraine and today we're seeing how... the Russian army is becoming the second most powerful army in Russia."

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Wagners on march ))) 

As a background very popular in Russia song about Wagners "Summer and arbalets' - one of many parts, assembled "cool image" of Wagners through mass-culture.

Summer and arbalets

Now Wagners will drive up

Somewhere, where a jingle of coin

"Ikhtamnety" are dancing 

Ikhtamniety - initially Ukrainian meme, appropriated by Russians like and "orcs" too (like we appropriated their "fascists", folowing this with German crosses on armor). Derived from Putin answer in 2014 is it true, that Russian troops involved in developments on Donbas. He said "ikh tam niet" literally "no them there", but Russian sounding create a playword similar to ancient Egyptian style name "Ikhtamniet" (plural "ikhtamniety") and this became a meme, describing "soldiers, operating in other country, when aggressor-side know about this, but still deny" 


 

Edited by Haiduk
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