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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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25 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Rumor mill now is that two Wagner convoys heading towards Rostov and the Interior Ministry troops let them through. Wagner Telegram just post "It Begins". If that all checks, it's a bigger thing than we yet know and it has support in Moscow. The move to Rostov is intelligent too. Prigozhin likely thinks the units there will be swayed to his side. If he can get that ball rolling who knows where it stops.

did most of Russias logistics just disappear?

 

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11 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Someone want to translate this video?
https://t.me/sashakots/40560
 

Appeal of the First Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff, Lieutenant General Vladimir Stepanovich Alekseev, to the fighters of the PMC Wagner.

Aleksieyev, and somebody probably very loudly drinking tea in the background, in the same room as Surovikin, both of which are in oddly depressed mood...both of them were close to Wagner, just saying.

Generally similar to Surovikin, he says former comradeships, that only president can appoint military leaders, that Wagner should not start a coup or take this kind of risk. And openly warns about civil war...

I have strong failed Turkey coup vibes about this, frankly.

Edited by Beleg85
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https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-23-23/index.html
 

Quote

Russian state TV channel interrupts news program to refute Wagner chief's claims
From CNN's Anna Chernova

State news TV channel Russia 24 interrupted the broadcast of a program Friday night to read out a message from the Russian Ministry of Defense, stating the claims made by Wagner mercenary group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin "do not correspond to reality."

The interruption came during the broadcast of the International Overview program. The anchor announced the following:

"We are interrupting the program [...] to deliver a message from the Russian Ministry of Defense: All messages and videos circulating on social media, attributed to Yevgeny Prigozhin, regarding alleged attacks by the Russian Defense Ministry on Wagner PMC rear camps, do not correspond to reality and are intended to misinform."

 

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ahhhhh, so maybe there is a plan. 

Go to Rostov, take all the army supplies there.  Having gone on tirade a couple days ago about the war being a lie, maybe his next move will be to say to MOD troops "side w me and you can go home".  That's gotta play well w the mobiks.  There are no words for how happy I am right now.  This is all quite lovely for UKR so far.

And maybe, as stated by folks above, he has some co-consipirators in Moscow?  But how does that all play out considering he's as far from Moscow as possible inside RU.

Of course, Putin probably has tons of spies in wagner so gonna be interesting....

Edited by danfrodo
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Nah Turkey was the Generals harking back for lost power. They were put of touch and didn't prep the population. 

Priggy has very much prepped the sections of population favourable to him,  he's built a clear political identity,  base and enemies, all the makings of an ideology. 

He has a fighting chance if achieving true independence from the MoD.  Taking the Kremlin is a different deal,  but he can definitely carve out his own geographic fiefdom. 

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4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Good insights, probably show will be over soon, unless Prig has some trump card in the sleeve.

 

It will at least cause disruption that will help UKR, I would think.  And maybe Prig somehow has some powerful co-conspirators in Moscow -- seems rather far-fetched but like TheCapt said, dictatorships all seems invulnerable until very suddenly  not.

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10 minutes ago, Pablius said:

Somewhat ironic that a group called Wagner is trying to pull a operation Valkyrie

You're not the only one that noticed. Here is the pro-Wagner telegram channel Grey Zone
https://t.me/grey_zone/19268
 

Quote

Gotterdammerung: Trauermarsch
Richard Wagner, Orchestra Philharmonique Royal de Liège, Evgeny Nikitin…
Death of the Gods | Götterdämmerung

A musical drama by Richard Wagner in three acts with a prologue that concludes the Ring of the Nibelung tetralogy.

— Act three: Near the river, Siegfried meets the daughters of the Rhine. They ask the hero to return the ring to them, when he refuses, they predict his death. Gunther and Hagen return from the hunt, offering Siegfried a drink that brings back his memory. The hero recalls his life, love for Brunnhilde (“Mime hieb ein murrischer Zwerg”; “Once upon a time there was Mime, a quarrelsome dwarf”). When he turns his back on Hagen, he spears him. Siegfried's last words are addressed to his beloved (“Brunhilde! Heilige Braut!”; “Brunhilde! Bride of the gods!”).

Night descends. The body of the deceased is carried to the castle in a solemn procession. Hagen and Gunther argue over the ring. Hagen mortally wounds Gunther, but when he tries to remove the ring from Siegfried's finger, the dead man's hand rises menacingly, and Hagen retreats in horror. Brunnhilde, tormented by remorse, removes the ring from Siegfried's hand in order to return it to the daughters of the Rhine. Then, jumping on a horse, she rushes into the fire, on which Siegfried's body is burned, blaming Wotan for his death ("Wie Sonne lauter"; "Like the sun, the beneficent face is clear").

The fire flares up, engulfing the castle. Hagen perishes in the waves of the overflowing Rhine. Fire reaches the heavens, Valhalla burns, the gods perish in flames. Evil redeemed. The Rhine returns to its shores. Mermaids frolic in its calm waves, playing with the ring.
 

 

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29 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

ahhhhh, so maybe there is a plan. 

Go to Rostov, take all the army supplies there.  Having gone on tirade a couple days ago about the war being a lie, maybe his next move will be to say to MOD troops "side w me and you can go home".  That's gotta play well w the mobiks.  There are no words for how happy I am right now.  This is all quite lovely for UKR so far.

And maybe, as stated by folks above, he has some co-consipirators in Moscow?  But how does that all play out considering he's as far from Moscow as possible inside RU.

Of course, Putin probably has tons of spies in wagner so gonna be interesting....

You know a guy named Lenin made a deal exactly like that with the Russian Army once upon a time. Whatever happened to him?

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Valkyrie was an assassination coup. There's zero chance of Prig getting to Putin.

I suspect that this is a fight for survival by Prig,  to consolidate his forces on something vital to the war (sitting on The logistics tail is a good angle,  above) and bury himself in layers of protection, then demand formal concessions that further isolate him from future attack. 

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