How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Sojourner]

10 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Sturdy little bastard. It is the identical MRAP MaxxPro that we saw being pushed back by the T72 14 days ago (vid within the thread). Both vehicles look as if they can be repaired.

 

 

Seems a little late in the year for AFV mating season. I'm not an expert but I think they might be doing it wrong.

 

(sorry, it's kind of a slow day)

[Kinophile]

https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1671425587615768578?t=QgbOZu11FFh_NzbYgbS-Eg&s=19

 

Edited June 21, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Huba]

3 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Nice precision hits on two 2S19. See vid.

 

 

M30A1 seems to be doing quite OK against lightly armoured vehicles, but I still wonder if DPICM isn't the way going forward? Being able to straight out kill (as opposed to just disabling/ damaging) modern tanks and IFVs has to be worth something, especially for weapons which soon will have a range of 150km, or even up to 1000 as in case of PrSM. Maximising lethality against armoured area targets sounds like a no-brainer to me, given that conventional warfare is again back on the agenda. A "smart" cluster warhead with something like BONUS munitions might be an alternative, but rather an expensive one, and not near as universal as DPICM warhead is.

47 minutes ago, dan/california said:

So the Russians claim to have retaken it and lost it again once. I wonder how many more times they will claim to take and lose it while the actual front slowly moves south.

 

I was about to make the same comment. Pics or it didn't happen, without evidence it's just morale boosting propaganda.

Edited June 21, 2023 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

 

That was a good summary of where things are at right now.  There was one very funny thing said:

"For the time being, progress is scarce. A few tens of square kilometers have been liberated. "

Talk about completely different standards, depending on who is viewing it!  From the west a few tens of square KMs taken back is not a big deal.  If Russia took this amount of land they would be saying that their next stop is Berlin!

Funny stuff.

Steve

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

M30A1 seems to be doing quite OK against lightly armoured vehicles, but I still wonder if DPICM isn't the way going forward? Being able to straight on kill (as opposed to just disabling/ damaging) modern tanks and IFVs has to be worth something, especially for weapons which soon will have a range of 150km, or even up to 1000 as in case of PrSM. Maximising lethality against armoured area targets sounds like a no-brainer to me, given that conventional warfare is again back on the agenda.

The anti land mine people have targeted DPICM as well. The U.S. is currently holding to a standard for dud limitation that no manufacturer can meet. So we are probably looking at some combination of tungsten balls, and the smart sub munitions like one that the German 155 deploys. The one with the parachute. I fully expect that would all be out the window in a matter of minutes if it was U.S. soldiers dying to hold back the orcs. It takes time to rearrange the manufacturing though, of course. Then there will be this huge investigation by Congress about not the best ammo for the troops and so on. It is as irritating as it is inevitable.

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, Huba said:

I was about to make the same comment. Pics or it didn't happen, without evidence it's just morale boosting propaganda.

This is a pattern we saw with various other battles throughout the war.  Claims of difficult, but unverified gains made without any evidence.  When it's proven that they did not make the gains, they then claim they were pushed out in hard fighting leaving behind heaps of dead Ukrainians.  It is so easy to do and the Russian believers are gullible, so why not?

I'm going to try this for us pro-Ukrainians and see how if I have any success...

 

"Today the glorious forces of Ukraine liberated parts of Moscow from the tyranny of Russian fascists!  This victory today spells the end of the Russian regime and soon we will once again be back to living in peace."

<tomorrow someone shows evidence that Moscow is calm and no signs of Ukrainian forces>

"Over night the fascist hordes pushed our glorious Ukrainians fighters to the outskirts of Moscow.  But it cost them 255,055 dead and wounded, 352 Armata tanks, and 16 sharks with frik'n lasers on their heads.  It was a difficult fight, but they don't care about losses and we do, so the wise move was to temporarily pull back and let them have their useless city.  We didn't want it anyway".

 

There, now I'm just like a Russian propagandist!

Steve

[panzermartin]

Speaking of the quality or mentality of the Russian troops in Ukraine...I'm trying to figure an explanation why we are seeing less and less russian prisoners, and the ones in the video prefer to die than surrender/retreat. It's like Stalin not one step back 1941 again? What's going on. 

We literally saw Ukraine SF begging them to surrender but still didn't work...

Is it the misery of war that has taken all sense and desire for life, is it the NKVD squad waiting in the woods behind, is it drugs, is it brainwashing, has the mutual hate crossed the point of no return, or we don't see enough of what's happening to pows (from both sides) ?

 

[kevinkin]

Blinken received assurances on lethal aid however Xi is no choir boy:

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-russias-vast-sanctions-evasion-secures-us-european-tech-weapons-1807939

"Export controls always work imperfectly. Period. But they don't have to work perfectly to be effective," said Fried, who served as U.S. ambassador to Poland under former President Bill Clinton. "An imperfect, leaky sanctions regime nevertheless imposes a cost on the Russian economy, and the military in particular."

However, 

Between March and December of 2022, Moscow imported 72 percent of the total value of its critical components from China, an increase from just 22 percent during the same period the previous year, according to the Russian trade data.

Companies based in the U.S. produced 64 percent of the dual-use goods—components that can be used for military purposes, as well as for consumer products such as automobiles and household appliances—that Russia imported between March and December of 2022, according to the Russian trade data.

"We're at the point now where the export controls should start having an impact. But Russia is adapting," Kilcrease said. "We've taken the big swing we could take. Now it's really about enforcement."

Well that is sort of like trying to catch a moth on the windy night. 

[Harmon Rabb]

Our friend Tatarigami_UA made it to the big leagues, just they did not want to credit his work. 

Thought this was kind of interesting because I started my dive into following many different OSINT Twitter accounts (never had a Twitter account before this war). When I discovered they were in many cases doing a better job, than major media outlets in covering this war.

[DesertFox]

Fresh and shiny, straight from the factory

 

Rostov on Don

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1671569835971559424?s=20

 

[DesertFox]

6 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Speaking of the quality or mentality of the Russian troops in Ukraine...I'm trying to figure an explanation why we are seeing less and less russian prisoners, and the ones in the video prefer to die than surrender/retreat. It's like Stalin not one step back 1941 again? What's going on. 

We literally saw Ukraine SF begging them to surrender but still didn't work...

Is it the misery of war that has taken all sense and desire for life, is it the NKVD squad waiting in the woods behind, is it drugs, is it brainwashing, has the mutual hate crossed the point of no return, or we don't see enough of what's happening to pows (from both sides) ?

 

Speaking of POWs, this one is worth a watch. 4 of em without firing a shot.

 

 

[panzermartin]

6 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Speaking of POWs, this one is worth a watch. 4 of em without firing a shot.

 

 

Haven't seen one for a while, guess some still want to live! 

Edited June 21, 2023 by panzermartin

[Kinophile]

Im curious, for our Ukrainian friends - despite the war have you noticed an improvement in government services, beaurocratic attitudes/process,  police honesty,  etc? 

I assume it's a patchwork...? 

[DesertFox]

Lets see where we end up with this. IMHO they should have supplied these yesterday.

 

 

[Jr Buck Private]

The more humane Ukraine is with treating and accepting surrender the more likely they get more and more prisoners.   Way better then having to waste ammo and lives.   They should be using social media so their buddies in the trenches  can see them smiling and eating well.   Maybe even show them partying at a strip club in Berlin or something.   Just thinking out loud ...

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Speaking of the quality or mentality of the Russian troops in Ukraine...I'm trying to figure an explanation why we are seeing less and less russian prisoners, and the ones in the video prefer to die than surrender/retreat. It's like Stalin not one step back 1941 again? What's going on. 

We literally saw Ukraine SF begging them to surrender but still didn't work...

Is it the misery of war that has taken all sense and desire for life, is it the NKVD squad waiting in the woods behind, is it drugs, is it brainwashing, has the mutual hate crossed the point of no return, or we don't see enough of what's happening to pows (from both sides) ?

 

I'd say I've seen more, and larger, capture videos in the last two weeks than several months before.  As for Russians not surrendering even when it's their only option other than death... we've seen that since the start.  Nothing new.  Lots and lots of videos of Ukrainians yelling for guys to come out of their hideyholes, refusing, then getting a grenade.

For sure Russian "barrier units" are in action.  We've heard lots of this from Russian POWs, but a week or so ago we saw a drone video of Russians shooting Russians.  So yes, there is fear of retreating and fear of surrendering.  Some are simply not smart enough to have made up their minds that they've got a better chance of living if they surrender than they do retreating.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Jr Buck Private said:

The more humane Ukraine is with treating and accepting surrender the more likely they get more and more prisoners.   Way better then having to waste ammo and lives.   They should be using social media so their buddies in the trenches  can see them smiling and eating well.   Maybe even show them partying at a strip club in Berlin or something.   Just thinking out loud ...

Out of all the statistics in this war that we haven't seen released by Ukraine, the number of Russian POWs taken is the one I'd peek at if allowed to peek at one and only one number.  Yes, I'm more curious about that than KIA and WIA for either side.

Steve

[Artkin]

I had my doubts in the worth of the MRAPs but they continue to impress me. Considering the apparent low density of ATGM's at this stage of the war they keep troops safe. I'm really surprised it's holding up half the weight of a 46 ton T-72.

[Jr Buck Private]

The fact that the US hasn't made available ATACMS is nonsense.   Russia can fire missiles and kill civilians in Kiev but Ukraine is not allowed to use western weapons to fire at anything inside Russia?  That's BS to me.   Besides, I think by now Ukraine has proven that they can trusted to follow directions and only use them within Ukraine (Crimea).  Biden should promise Putin that if one them goes off target and wipes out a block in Moscow that he'll give Zelensky a good talking too.

But no apologies.  It's war after all.

 

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Jr Buck Private said:

The fact that the US hasn't made available ATACMS is nonsense.   Russia can fire missiles and kill civilians in Kiev but Ukraine is not allowed to use western weapons to fire at anything inside Russia?  That's BS to me.   Besides, I think by now Ukraine has proven that they can trusted to follow directions and only use them within Ukraine (Crimea).  Biden should promise Putin that if one them goes off target and wipes out a block in Moscow that he'll give Zelensky a good talking too.

But no apologies.  It's war after all.

 

Well, in case od ATACMS specifically, my suspicion is that there's some kind of a deal in place, where neither US nor Iran are supplying SRBMs to the belligerents. It might or might not be to UA advantage, but would explain the current status quo.

[kevinkin]

I remember early on, there was reporting on how the UA was utilizing the females in the defense against. I have not seen much on this lately. So how are the RA and UA using 50% of their adults? Is Russia using them at all? Will finding roles for females provide an advantage over Russia? I am not suggesting storming trenches. Perhaps part of UAV teams. Just curious on how this factors into the war or if it does at all in a meaningful way. 

[FancyCat]

 

 

[panzermartin]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'd say I've seen more, and larger, capture videos in the last two weeks than several months before.  As for Russians not surrendering even when it's their only option other than death... we've seen that since the start.  Nothing new.  Lots and lots of videos of Ukrainians yelling for guys to come out of their hideyholes, refusing, then getting a grenade.

For sure Russian "barrier units" are in action.  We've heard lots of this from Russian POWs, but a week or so ago we saw a drone video of Russians shooting Russians.  So yes, there is fear of retreating and fear of surrendering.  Some are simply not smart enough to have made up their minds that they've got a better chance of living if they surrender than they do retreating.

Steve

Maybe I missed those videos. That lead me to the impression that the en masse surrender or abandonment of equipment of the early weeks of the war are no longer. I think the addition of barrier units were introduced later to counter these. Still shocking these are still employed like it's the 40s again.... 

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Maybe I missed those videos. That lead me to the impression that the en masse surrender or abandonment of equipment of the early weeks of the war are no longer. I think the addition of barrier units were introduced later to counter these. Still shocking these are still employed like it's the 40s again.... 

For sure the number captured in any one action is not large because whole Russian units aren't surrendering while they are intact.  They are still more likely to retreat.

I just finished watching a 1/2 hour video from 80th Air Assault Brigade where a platoon sized operation in the usual thick bush "plantings" netted them 3 prisoners.  They reported that the rest ran away.  This is pretty typical of a successful operation where some die, most retreat, some get captured.  The previous video with the clever trick to get Russians to surrender was similar, except was saw a bunch of dead Russians in the process.

Since most of these actions are at the platoon level, with high levels of lethality and generally good opportunities to run away, a handful of prisoners is about all that can be expected.

As I've been saying since the start of this war, the only way we're going to see large numbers of Russians surrendering in one place at one time is a) systemic and catastrophic sector wide collapse or b) surrounded.  Neither situation has happened in the entire war for Ukraine so far.  Kherson was the best opportunity for it, but the Russians were smart and capable enough to retreat before couldn't.

Steve