How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

More evidence that Ukraine is far more focused on grinding down Russia's forces than it is taking territory.  This is the correct strategy!  We've been saying over and over again that Russia's lines are thin and reinforcements at any scale unavailable.  Yet a relatively small number of defenders can be a real problem with all those mines and fixed emplacements.  Mines and fixed emplacements without capable defenders, though, are a different thing

So it looks like Russia is stuck.  They have to stay in their positions and there's very little it can do about the attrition.  Attempts to counter attack are just going to make it worse.  And if there's one thing the Russians are consistently good at doing is taking a bad situation and making it worse!

The big question, then, is how long will Ukraine keep this grinding up before it makes major moves forward?  We have no idea how weak Russia's forces are and how weak Ukraine wants them to be.  This means we could see the second phase of the counter offensive start at any time, either weeks, a month +, or before I hit "Submit" to this post.  My gut tells me 2 weeks max, with some interesting preludes before then.

Yes, have the same feeling. 

 

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

As for the Prig rant, it seems that he is still an outlier in terms of Kremlin messaging.  He's still out there saying everything is going to Hell in a handbasket and soon, despite many of the others falling into line.  Interesting.

Steve

I have some time, so let's discuss Prig and Girkin's inability to adhere to non-bad news policy.

Prig is from the FSB clan, while the no-bad-news policy is more or less RU MOD policy. But what is key is the Prig overall strategy to blame everything on the RU MOD (for the sake of the FSB) in order to undermine the RU MOD's power over the army. He kept silent for two weeks to see how the situation would develop, but as it became evident that the situation was dire for RU MOD, he decided to use it for his own advantage. Backlash is unavoidable, and he intends to ride on it.

Girkin, on the other hand, complies not because he was intimidated, but because his ego and determination to do everything it takes to save the Motherland are widely known. It is commonly known that if he feels it would rescue Motherland, you can persuade him into doing anything. So he was most likely told that the situation is disastrous and that Motherland does not want him to aggravate it.

He is not, however, foolish, and his obedience is not blind. He determines what truly harms and benefits Motherland. He appears to be willing to cooperate in specifics but not in evaluating the broader situation. Also we should not forget that he also want to ride on the wave of backlash.

 

[dan/california]

 

[Grigb]

10 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

Ukrainian strategy seems more reminiscent of the "bite and hold" strategy used by the Entente in the latter half of WW1 than it does of the sweeping armored maneuvers of WW2.

Fun fact: Because of the RU military's supposed racial superiority over inferior westerners, the RU military has no institutional knowledge of the West's military experience in both World Wars. They would never consider such an Entente strategy.

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Dmitiry already translated Prig comments about real situation. Here is confirmation that situation for RU is very difficult - from "agent" Thirteen (infamous RU soldier in Kherson-Zaporozhye area)

[EDIT] For those who do not want to spend time listening to Prig here are main points:

• Pyatikhatka is under AFU control [is not new for us]
• The northern section of Robotne is under AFU control [is new for us]
• Urozhaine is under AFU control [is not new for us]
• Prig concludes that the UKR controls huge areas of land
• AFU unit (50-10) is located near Tormak in the Sadove village [is new for us]
• RU MOD has no control over anything [is not new for us]
• Total shortage of weaponry and ammunition (including anti-tank weapons) [is not new for us]
• AFU advances [implying successfully] toward Molochny Lyman [village on the Azov seashore south of Melitopol - if AFU reaches it, the RU grouping will be split in half]. [is new for us]
• AFU begins crossing the Dniepr - there were recon parties at Hola Prystan [a town south-west of Kherson] and now the main troops begin to arrive [is new for us]
• RU suffers casualties but no reinforcement [is not new for us]
• RU units are understaffed by 50-60% [is not new for us]
• Everything up there has been hidden from everybody. The Russian military command is fooling Putin and the Russian people [is not new for us]
• Disparaging Shoigy and the RU MOD,  concludes the Russian army is being destroyed [is not new for us]
• The UKR counter-offensive causes significant losses for RU, which is not being acknowledged [is not new for us]
• Bla-Bla-Bla [is not new for us]

 

 

[sburke]

22 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Perhaps I'm being excessively cynical, but 3 days ago youtube channel War Archive did a video on the opening of the battle for Kyiv (linked a few pages back, and I'll link it again below), which included a lot of information on the Ukrainian air force actions in the opening days,  most of which I'd never seen before (and certainly not gathered in one place). Sounds to me like someone watched the video,  took notes and called that "research" for their article,  when War Archive was the one who put in the hours of the actual research .

probably not being excessive.  I didn't watch the video yet.  

[sburke]

Doubts over Russian soldier given award for destroying German Leopard 2 tank (yahoo.com)

[Maciej Zwolinski]

23 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

.

25 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

Ukrainian strategy seems more reminiscent of the "bite and hold" strategy used by the Entente in the latter half of WW1 than it does of the sweeping armored maneuvers of WW2.

Exactly. This suggests that Ukrainians think that the pendulum has swung towards ascendance of the defence, like in WW I and their armoured brigades will have a role more similar to the cavalry of WWI rather than tanks of that time - i.e. they have to have the breaktrough made for them by artillery and infantry.

 

[DesertFox]

Nice precision hits on two 2S19. See vid.

 

 

[cesmonkey]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Dmitiry already translated Prig comments about real situation. Here is confirmation that situation for RU is very difficult - from "agent" Thirteen (infamous RU soldier in Kherson-Zaporozhye area)

[EDIT] For those who do not want to spend time listening to Prig here are main points:

• Pyatikhatka is under AFU control [is not new for us]
• The northern section of Robotne is under AFU control [is new for us]
• Urozhaine is under AFU control [is not new for us]
• Prig concludes that the UKR controls huge areas of land
• AFU unit (50-10) is located near Tormak in the Sadove village [is new for us]
• RU MOD has no control over anything [is not new for us]
• Total shortage of weaponry and ammunition (including anti-tank weapons) [is not new for us]
• AFU advances [implying successfully] toward Molochny Lyman [village on the Azov seashore south of Melitopol - if AFU reaches it, the RU grouping will be split in half]. [is new for us]
• AFU begins crossing the Dniepr - there were recon parties at Hola Prystan [a town south-west of Kherson] and now the main troops begin to arrive [is new for us]
• RU suffers casualties but no reinforcement [is not new for us]
• RU units are understaffed by 50-60% [is not new for us]
• Everything up there has been hidden from everybody. The Russian military command is fooling Putin and the Russian people [is not new for us]
• Disparaging Shoigy and the RU MOD,  concludes the Russian army is being destroyed [is not new for us]
• The UKR counter-offensive causes significant losses for RU, which is not being acknowledged [is not new for us]
• Bla-Bla-Bla [is not new for us]

I appreciate the summary of Prig's comments. Then I watched the video in order to see the translation in real-time.
Wow, did he really lay into the MOD!

[Jr Buck Private]

3 hours ago, sburke said:

Well thank god they didn't set the value of what backing Ukraine is truly worth... PRICELESS.

Or the value of gutting Russia's military capability.   It's the bargain of the century.  I've seen the USA send arms over the years to people who just wouldn't fight the way you hoped.  Not so with the Ukrainians.   You give them a hunting rifle, they go hunting ...  

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Jr Buck Private said:

Or the value of gutting Russia's military capability.   It's the bargain of the century.  I've seen the USA send arms over the years to people who just wouldn't fight the way you hoped.  Not so with the Ukrainians.   You give them a hunting rifle, they go hunting ...  

And figure out how to knock out a tank with it.

For decades I've loved kidding with the Finns about how inventive and effective they were during the Winter War.  Back in the CMBB days the common joke was about Finns figuring out how to use toothpicks to destroy tanks.  Move over Finns, because there's a new kid in town

At the start of this war, when it was abundantly clear Russia was getting slaughtered by a supposedly inferior foe, there were some that drew parallels to the Winter War.  As long as one didn't get too deep into the analogy, it was (and still is) a good pairing to make.  The comparisons between the Soviet Red Army and the RF Armed Forces is definitely more similar than dissimilar, as is comparing the inherent capabilities of the Finns and the Ukrainians is.  I think Ukraine will end this war better off than Finland did, but that's yet to be seen.

Steve

[Jr Buck Private]

Not sure what to think of Prig's comments.   I think he's exaggerating to the negative to make it seem worse then it is for Russia.   I figure I'll take what the Kremlin says, add Prig's comments, then divide by two to get a more accurate Russian assessment.    So somewhere between those two assessments .....

Edited June 21, 2023 by Jr Buck Private
spelling

[Kinophile]

The Finns and UKR are like Civ3 Spearmen vs Russian Tanks.

 

 

Edited June 21, 2023 by Kinophile

[DesertFox]

 

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Nice precision hits on two 2S19. See vid.

 

 

So imagine being in that third vehicle driving along in the back of the frame. You watch two SPGs go up like they were smacked by Thor's own hammer, and you probably need new pants. So do you call the Ukrainian surrender hotline? Start walking home and take your chances with the blocking troops? Or just curl up in hole with ALL the vodka, and hope it doesn't hurt much when the hammer comes for you?

[cesmonkey]

More details on what Biden said at a campaign event earlier this week. I'll paste in the parts in some way related to Ukraine:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/06/19/remarks-by-president-biden-at-a-campaign-reception-atherton-ca/
 

Quote

And so, we spent a lot of time trying to figure out where this relationship was going to go, not only with China but with Russia.  You may remember, when I became president, I checked with the intelligence community to see if I could — without any — hurting any one individual, to let — let the world know that for the first time since World War Two, 135,000 people were going to invade another country. 

And I said and I predicted — and I told — I told — at the time, it was cleared.  And I told the Ukrainians that they were going to be invaded.  They didn’t believe it either.  But for the first time, we had — ever — no one contemplated the notion that there would be a Russian army that would invade another country with a hundred- — it ended up being 185,000 people.

 

Quote

And so I had two jobs you elected me to do.  First was to reestablish American leadership in the world, not so we could beat our chests — because if we don’t do it, no one gets it done.  No one has the influence, the power, the consequence, or the history to get it done.  Nobody.  It doesn’t mean we’re better than anybody else.  It means — but we are more unique than anybo- — than another country.

You know, there’s a — every other country in the world is based on their — their — their — their country, as a consequence of ethnicity, religion, geography — or something other than — other than geography.  And we’re the only country in the world that we’re united based on an idea.  That’s what — and that’s not hyperbole, that’s a fact.  Think about it.  The only country organized based on an idea — that we hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men and women are created equal, endowed by their Creator with certain rights, et cetera, et cetera.

We’ve never lived up to it, but we never walked away from it completely.  And we’ve been the — we’ve been the linchpin that most democracies around the world look to to keep things moving.  Madeleine Albright was right when she said we’re the essential nation.

And so, the point I’m trying to make here is that we had an obligation to try to reunite the world.  I have spent, because of your help — I haven’t been able — I’ve spent over now, they tell me, about 180 hours with European heads of state and allies, including the Japanese as well, who have come along — come along a big way.  And in terms of pulling these countries together.

If you notice, Putin was certain when he in- — virtually certain when he invaded that he was going to split NATO, that NATO would ne- — never stay together.  NATO is more united than it’s ever been in an entire history of NATO, because we’ve worked together.  And it’s critically important, and that was the job that I had.

I’m going to say something outrageous.  I think I know as much about American foreign policy as anybody living, including Dr. Kissinger.  That’s what I’ve done my whole life — for the last 270 years.  (Laughter and applause.)

Quote

When I was out here about three years ago saying I worried about the Colorado River drying up, everybody looked at me like I was crazy.  They looked at me like when I said I worried about Putin using tactical nuclear weapons. 

It’s real. 

 

[kraze]

30 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

"No Russian Soldiers want to be in Ukraine"

does he or anyone really believe that at this point? Pretty sure if someone doesn't want to be somewhere and he's also armed with really really big guns - he will be elsewhere.

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

The Finns and UKR are like Civ3 Spearmen vs Russian Tanks.

 

 

Javelin is a spear

[sburke]

18 minutes ago, kraze said:

"No Russian Soldiers want to be in Ukraine"

does he or anyone really believe that at this point? Pretty sure if a rational someone, with a brain not pickled in vodka and with a deliberately stunted thinking process, doesn't want to be somewhere and he's also armed with really really big guns - he will be elsewhere.

There, maybe that will help.  

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, kraze said:

"No Russian Soldiers want to be in Ukraine"

does he or anyone really believe that at this point? Pretty sure if someone doesn't want to be somewhere and he's also armed with really really big guns - he will be elsewhere.

Well, I just posted some info on what happens to Russians who are armed who say they don't want to be in Ukraine any more.  They get shoved into a hole until they've had a change of heart.

For the most part the single biggest motivator for Russians being in Ukraine now is fear of the alternatives.  Money is another huge motivator, but if the Kremlin were paying people that much money to stand on their heads in the middle of Siberia they probably would.  So the money isn't making them want to be in Ukraine specifically.  Convicts?  Same thing, they want to be out of jail, the place is not relevant.  The alpha male types, such as the Kadyrovites, want to be somewhere that they can earn money and brag about how big their balls are.  They would most likely prefer that NOT be Ukraine, since they know that their balls are really small and a Ukrainian sniper is perfectly able to shoot them off.  The loudmouths that say they are all about ridding Ukraine of Nazis are mostly bullies and cowards at heart, so they would prefer to beat up tourists or behead puppies on VK instead of getting killed.

I really don't believe there are many Russians that truly want to be in Ukraine fighting this war.  Which is, in a way, much worse because it shows how zombified the Russian male population is that so many willing go to die there for no reason.

Steve

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

https://t.me/wargonzo/13399

Quote

WarGonzo
️Urgently️The situation in the Pyatikhatok area at 23:00 Moscow time️

At the cost of huge losses, the Armed Forces of Ukraine again occupied several houses in the village of Pyatikhatki.

 

[dan/california]

29 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

https://t.me/wargonzo/13399

 

So the Russians claim to have retaken it and lost it again once. I wonder how many more times they will claim to take and lose it while the actual front slowly moves south.

 

[DesertFox]

Sturdy little bastard. It is the identical MRAP MaxxPro that we saw being pushed back by the T72 14 days ago (vid within the thread). Both vehicles look as if they can be repaired.

 

 

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Sturdy little bastard. It is the identical MRAP MaxxPro that we saw being pushed back by the T72 14 days ago (vid within the thread). Both vehicles look as if they can be repaired.

 

 

At least one person is currently digging the worlds largest latrine....

Also, is really that hard to put a back up camera on a tank?

Edited June 21, 2023 by dan/california