How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

53 minutes ago, dan/california said:

What I want to know is what was in the trench that was worth risking a SOF team for? Or at least what they thought was in it? A SOF team seems like too high value an asset to risk just to eliminate some random mobiks. 

RU/Soviet army tend to crete a large number of SF units. And everyone wants to see some action. As a result, they are frequently do elite light infantry jobs (like the 75th Rangers). They infiltrate and attack critical defensive positions from behind.

[dan/california]

And after the Ukrainian example no one will ever give up nukes again. U.S./NATO just didn't give that enough weight early.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://news.yahoo.com/hungary-continues-hold-11-ukrainian-150500735.html

Hungary continues to hold 11 Ukrainian POWs incommunicado, claims Ukrainian Foreign Ministry

 

I honestly quite figure out what is goin on here, but every explanation I can come up with leads to the same conclusion. The Orban problems needs to go from something unpleasant we ignore, to something that gets fixed.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Been wondering the same thing myself.  I am guessing it is a bit of a recency effect in the face of some high profile videos of UA losses.  How is Russia learning exactly?

The NYT article linked to above doesn't tell us anything new, nor does it establish what I would call "learning" in a significant way.  Here's a quote:

Quote

American officials acknowledge that Russian tactics have improved. But those officials believe, based on battlefield intelligence reports, that the success in Bakhmut was largely because of Wagner’s willingness to throw prisoners into the fight, no matter the cost in lives.

This is the big mistake some are making.  Units 1-9 are all crap and fight with the same blunt idiocy that has been the hallmark of this whole war.  Then Unit 10, which has some special circumstances (Wagner, Spetsnaz, VDV, etc.) does something akin to modern fighting techniques, and suddenly the Russians have "learned".

The major issue is that Russia is now OBLIGATED to fight on the defense from prepared positions on a large scale.  This means a lot of the "before" stuff doesn't really apply because defense is inherently different than offense.  Ukraine has always had difficulty making progress through Russian prepared defenses, especially in Kherson.  I don't see any evidence that Russia is doing much of anything inherently different than they've done anywhere else where Ukraine is attacking them.  Some positions fall relatively easily because Units 1-9 are there, some positions don't because Unit 10 is there.

Other observations like rushing large columns of armor at Ukrainian defenses is mostly over because Russia has lost so much of its mobility.  Especially if one is comparing today's fighting with Feb/Mar 2022.

For sure Russia is learning and applying some lessons at the tactical level.  Unevenly because of the unit quality problems, but still there's no doubt some amount of knowledge being passed around.  But if strategic and operational commands still make units do stupid things for dumb reasons, poking around with a drone ahead of time isn't really going to change the picture much.

In some other aspects, the lesson Russia learned is "Ukrainians shoot back" and "maybe we should follow doctrine more than bravado".  Polite golf clap for them learning that.

Steve

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Their hands were in front of them but I'm not sure they were surrendering.  They were rushing forward.  I think they were blindly fleeing.  If they were surrendering I'd expect them to come forward slowly.  Hard to say. 

My opinion is that the first three guys did not try to surrender. The first guy immidiatly starts shouting like a warning cyka, blyat and tries to shout something specific to warn comrades. He is clearly shocked but very aggressive at this point and tries to hide inside the observation post while shouting. His hands were seen as if extended forwards becasue he was already hit and extended them to protect body from bullets and also, as he was falling, to instinctively to protect body from fall. He was trying to swear till the end. 

The other two guys were rushing to the first guy to ask what happened. They just did not expect UKR guys inside. The first guy (the second by kill count) clearly had something in right hand similar to how RU soldier tend to carry AKs in close quarters when not in danger.   

[Battlefront.com]

40 minutes ago, Grigb said:

This post is RU propaganda narrative they all are spewing now.

I'm definitely seeing the pattern you have been drawing our attention to.  I think it goes something like this...

1. draw attention away from areas of obvious problems, especially the south
2. do not mention deep strikes (HQs, ammo, bridges, whatever) at all
3. invent large Ukrainian losses without any evidence
4. speak of the steadfastness and determination of Russian forces, even green units
5. attempt to add credibility by admitting things are difficult, green units make mistakes, loss of some "minor" positions (which are usually "regained"), but offer no details
6. do not criticize any level of Russian leadership, supply deficiency, inferior weapons, etc.

Does that seem about right to you?  This stuff has been consistent with the blatant propagandists, but several of these points (especially #6) have not been a part of the ardent RU Nat military bloggers.

Steve

[sburke]

so was that big meeting with all the bloggers just to show them the big freakin window Putin has prepared if they don't toe the line?  Sounds about his speed.

[kevinkin]

ISW:

Head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center Colonel Margo Grosberg stated on June 16 that he assesses "we won't see an offensive over the next seven days.”[7]The Wall Street Journal similarly reported on June 17 that Ukrainian forces “have mostly paused their advances in recent days” as Ukrainian command reexamines tactics.

This was brought up this morning or last night. Is this an attempt to head off any Russian propaganda related to "stopping" the UA? Seems it would somewhat secret even if western organizations like ISW observe the pause via open sources explain to the public it's normal.   

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

My opinion is that the first three guys did not try to surrender. The first guy immidiatly starts shouting like a warning cyka, blyat and tries to shout something specific to warn comrades. He is clearly shocked but very aggressive at this point and tries to hide inside the observation post while shouting. His hands were seen as if extended forwards becasue he was already hit and extended them to protect body from bullets and also, as he was falling, to instinctively to protect body from fall. He was trying to swear till the end. 

The other two guys were rushing to the first guy to ask what happened. They just did not expect UKR guys inside. The first guy (the second by kill count) clearly had something in right hand similar to how RU soldier tend to carry AKs in close quarters when not in danger.   

Thanks for adding more details.  The inability to understand language used is a big hindrance to understanding videos like this.  Even understanding one word and how it was said can change perception.

For me, I didn't see guys trying to surrender.  I saw guys moving about without a clue that they were about to get shot.  Nobody, not even the dumbest man on Earth, RUNS at a source of death if they are intending to surrender.  Staying in place, shouting intentions, etc. is the universal reaction.  So much so that responding to enemy commands to come out are suppressed by fear and might well wind up getting them killed.

A universal element of these trench videos is the horrible lack of situational awareness for anybody in them.  A disciplined soldier operating as part of a coherent unit makes a huge difference.  Running right past a junction somewhere in the vicinity of shouting and shooting Ukrainians is a "rookie mistake".  Given that guy (4th) has almost no signs of a military uniform, I think these guys were likely "rookies".  My guess is they were guarding something in the rear, like a weapon system or checkpoint.

Steve

 

[sburke]

Counteroffensive underway: ‘We overestimated Russians and underestimated ourselves’ (yahoo.com)

[Huba]

Rybar offers some interesting comment on that trench-clearing video:

 

[Grigb]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm definitely seeing the pattern you have been drawing our attention to.  I think it goes something like this...

1. draw attention away from areas of obvious problems, especially the south
2. do not mention deep strikes (HQs, ammo, bridges, whatever) at all
3. invent large Ukrainian losses without any evidence
4. speak of the steadfastness and determination of Russian forces, even green units
5. attempt to add credibility by admitting things are difficult, green units make mistakes, loss of some "minor" positions (which are usually "regained"), but offer no details
6. do not criticize any level of Russian leadership, supply deficiency, inferior weapons, etc.

Does that seem about right to you?  This stuff has been consistent with the blatant propagandists, but several of these points (especially #6) have not been a part of the ardent RU Nat military bloggers.

Steve

Yes, it is exactly what I am talking about.  

[Grigb]

17 minutes ago, sburke said:

so was that big meeting with all the bloggers just to show them the big freakin window Putin has prepared if they don't toe the line?  Sounds about his speed.

Stick and carrot policy - act nicely and you will be officially recognized and elevated to the status of RU elite close to Putin. Or else.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/06/18/frances-top-general-on-lessons-from-the-battlefield

If lethality depends increasingly on technology, yet modern war is also waged on a grand scale, with massive consumption of ammunition and high rates of attrition, then how do medium-sized armies balance between quality and quantity? The priority, says General Burkhard, is integrating platforms together: “We have to be able to have five drones in the air linked to an artillery battery, three missile-launchers, a tank and in fact have enough agility to decide what we want to do with what we see.” Having lots of things is useless if they cannot talk to each other. “Coherence…must precede mass.”

 

They seem to be asking most of the right questions, I am less convinced about their answers.

 

[Grigb]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 Running right past a junction somewhere in the vicinity of shouting and shooting Ukrainians is a "rookie mistake".  Given that guy (4th) has almost no signs of a military uniform, I think these guys were likely "rookies".  My guess is they were guarding something in the rear, like a weapon system or checkpoint.

Steve

The fourth guy's clothes are a bit too good for a poor rookie in my opinion. I would say he is a civilian paramilitary logistic guy that happened to be in the trench. But no doubt they are sort of smobiks (bit too old) somewhere in the rear. 

[Grigb]

21 minutes ago, Huba said:

Rybar offers some interesting comment on that trench-clearing video:

 

I think he is lying to sweeten up the video. UKR guys are at the entrance. There is no space for weapon boxes that are covered from elements and also supposed to be accessible by multiple people at once. Even if RU guys had weapons boxes, they were in the main sleeping bunker from where other guys were coming from.   

[Beleg85]

There are some developments in N-E sector of the front...both in Kreminna there are abnormal fires, and in Kupyanks there are some reportedly muscovite advances. But apart from Ms. Malyar statements and traces of fires, there is very little info what is happening in the north and east. Perhaps somebopdy here have better sources?

Btw. where is 1st Guard Tank Army?

 

Edited June 19, 2023 by Beleg85

[cesmonkey]

21 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There are some developments in N_W sector of the front...both in Kreminna there are abnormal fires, and in Kupyanks there are some reportedly muscovite advances. But apart from Ms. Malyar statements and traces of fires, there is very little info what is happening in the north and east. Perhaps somebopdy here have better sources?

Btw. where is 1st Guard Tank Army?

 

I did find this:

https://t.me/notes_veterans/10433
 

Quote

The Svatovsko-Kremensky front came to life. There are serious fights going on.

https://t.me/epoddubny/16447
 

Quote

The enemy has stepped up operations in the north of the North-Eastern Military District. The units of the 42nd, 63rd and 67th brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to break into our defense line near Kremennaya. There were about 10 attacks, all repulsed. Our paratroopers and infantry greeted the guests with beauty. Regime formations have suffered casualties, been pushed back, and are now regrouping. Part of the personnel of the enemy units, in order not to take part in the meat grinder, surrendered.

 

Edited June 19, 2023 by cesmonkey

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, landser said:

The most CQ B we've seen yet.

First guy didn't have his hands up,  giving up, that was him emerging from a narrow trench, possibly stunned or confused. Certainly not surrendering or asking for quarter. 

 

[Kinophile]

Btw,  have there been any CV90 committed yet? 

 

[DesertFox]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Btw,  have there been any CV90 committed yet? 

 

Haven't seen any footage in the field yet. Just this one on transport:

 

 

[womble]

31 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There are some developments in N_W sector of the front...both in Kreminna there are abnormal fires, and in Kupyanks there are some reportedly muscovite advances. But apart from Ms. Malyar statements and traces of fires, there is very little info what is happening in the north and east. Perhaps somebopdy here have better sources?

 

It might have been clever of the Russians to keep a "plausible" hammer ready to fall on a pre-planned sector of the front once the UKR offensive started for real. Would provide a distraction and potential siphon for UKR reserve formations that were supposed to be poised for breakout. Might even offer some actual territorial gains to crow about, if it catches UKR off-guard.

 

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, womble said:

It might have been clever of the Russians to keep a "plausible" hammer ready to fall on a pre-planned sector of the front once the UKR offensive started for real. Would provide a distraction and potential siphon for UKR reserve formations that were supposed to be poised for breakout. Might even offer some actual territorial gains to crow about, if it catches UKR off-guard.

 

Given the overall level of ISR and intelligence collection on the Ukrainian side I find it extremely unlikely that the Russians managed to pull together enough forces to do anything serious undetected. And Russians are a lot easier to kill attacking than they are when the burying into their holes like some sort of particularly unpleasant mole, so my bar for worrying about this is pretty high.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

Given the overall level of ISR and intelligence collection on the Ukrainian side I find it extremely unlikely that the Russians managed to pull together enough forces to do anything serious undetected

They were detected. Some UKR bloggers (Mashovets for example) have been reporting RUS concentration in the north east, including the reconstituted 1st Guards Tank Army. They thought the purpose of those troops is to attack somewhere around Kupyansk when the Ukrainians are committed in the south. So a counterattack near Kupyansk was a known possibility. 

[dan/california]

I am developing a deep interest in the soil conditions in that reservoir, no reason, just curious.