How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Saving private Fox

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_MonkeyKing]

50 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Completely disagree with these three takes. 

First two can be true if we say about 2014-2015. Further we have the same program of NATO training, a separate program of sergeant corps training. Of course, all depends from brigades command attitude and soldiers motivation to learn. Ukrainian training centers had very formal and not enough effective training program, more effective were different alternative programs, implementing with support of high command and NATO training.

But for almost five years we already had enough good sergeant corps and enough trained experienced personnel. Though, as told UKR volunteer Roman Donik, who organized alterrnative training programs for riflemen and squad leaders, combat experience without knowledges how "military machine" should work during combat, leaves this experienced serviceman not as experienced soldier, but anyway as civilian with combat experience and this is two big differences. 

"Prewar UKR military doesn't exist anymore" - we have obviously heavy losses (for Ukrianian scale) in dead and wounded among soldiers, who were in real service in 2022 and among "OR-1 first category" (retired contractors, who participated in ATO/OOS and were mobilized in first months). On 24th Feb 2022 we had only 178 000 of OR-1. How much personnel we really had on 24th Feb I can't say (according to the law about Armed Forces maximum number of pesonnel, including civilian servicemen was 246 000). I can suppose real picture was about 60 % of personnel in Ground Forces units. Taking to account that conscripts were adopting experience from servicemen and mobilized veterans, and taking to account overall number of veterans in about 250 000 at least, we can't say that now we have completely rooky army without "old blood". Again, all depends from brigades and command of brigades and batatlions, more exactly from their wish to be effective unit, or to be Soviet-style formalists, for which paper work and more valuable then effectiveness, or to be Russian-style butchers with moods "if unit has low level of losses, this means the unit fights bad" (alas, during Kherson offensive theer were reports about several battalion commanders, which boasted each before other how much of their personnel was lost during direct assaults as a sign of their "hard fight")

From what I have heard of the NCO discussion, Ukraine is and was pretty far from anything like the US system. And that is what many commentators in the States referred to as being one of the reasons for success. They have/had similar effects as the Western NCO system but the system was fundamentally different. 

 

Only stating the Ukrainian military as it was in 2021 doesn't exist anymore. No matter what you thought it was back then it is not anymore.

Losses, learning, reserve officers, expanding the force, new western training, adaptation in this war, new offensive tasks, and capacities...

[Kinophile]

Oh Trent. 

I guess if it's not circular and encased in inflated rubber then your input signals get all scrambly.

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1669034142061797411?t=IbIIzhGqUWR9_21ThnV9Sw&s=19

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Kinophile

[Beleg85]

Russian with Igła manpad took decision to sit on top of this tower...it is perfect spot to drone him. Another use of precise loitering munitions/drones- eliminating threats such as these.

 

[panzermartin]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by panzermartin
Double

[panzermartin]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

There is a huge difference between coming into a room full of people who are having an informed exchange of ideas and screaming insults about their intelligence, integrity, reasoning skills, etc. and coming into the same room and engaging in the discussion with productive debate behavior.  This is how you started out the whole mess we're sorting through:

" Sometimes I'm surprised by the amount of copium in this forum. "

The thing is, I never expected the forum to take a meme word like Copium so seriously! I personally find it funny, it's unfortunate that this was taken as screaming insults to fellow members or undermining their intelligence, which absolutely is not my intend. It was in a definetely lighter tone, written text cannot convey accurately. 

Maybe in my other words I put some of the everyday pressure and I'm not on the receiving end to realize it. Something to improve I guess. 

 

[Haiduk]

in Bakhmut area HIMARS has struck on one of vehicles of EW complex "Borisoglebsk-2" - for supression of satellite communications and radionavigation systems (near miss, but probably damaged) and artillery radar Zoopark-1 (destroyed - one missile, not shown on video hit nearny aside, the second likely was more accurate)

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Skirmish somewhere on southern front

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

deleted

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by danfrodo
deleted

[panzermartin]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

JUST F-ING DROP IT, JESUS H CRYPTO, JUST STOP you are wasting everyone's time.  It's hard to keep up w the forum without dozens of posts stemming from this.

Hey who's screaming now. It's not my fault I had to reply to 20 posts about copium. I'm out for now. 

Peace. 

[Beleg85]

Some interesting thread with detailed look of Russian fortifications. May be valuable for people writing about breaching lines- it seem we have several masked AT postions here.

Also some nice link there about creation of permanent Ahmat troops to fight in  regular war- curiously, it is largely made now from Russian volunteers trained in Chechnya, but not Chechens themselves, who don't like this very serious conflict in Ukraine. Highly recommended is original (albeit short) article in Russian: https://www.svoboda.org/a/chechenskiy-ahmat-pervym-podpisal-kontrakt-s-minoborony-/32455205.html

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Beleg85

[danfrodo]

That's my point.  You did NOT have to reply to everything.  That is called dropping it.  watch how it's done.  You will, invariably, reply to this.  I will be silent.  No matter what you say.  You have wasted a damn bunch of my time and I don't appreciate it.  I read (nearly) every post out of respect to this forum and this stream was just page after page of clutter.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

We had seen this around Svatove and Kreminna and Russians indeed managed to "extinguish" attacking striving of UKR forces. Though, we hadn't ebough strike fists on this direction and likely afetr Balakliya operation we hadn't any resourses to continue the offensive

This is an important thing to note.  The Kharkiv counter offensive was already at its natural point of exhaustion and Ukraine did not have sufficient reserves to take over the fight.  The constant Russian counter attacks were enough to stop the advance, but not enough to regain ground.

Right now we are seeing the Russians trying to exhaust the beginning of a counter offensive in the south conducted by a fraction of Ukraine's combat power that we assume (and there is that word!) is allocated to the south.  If Russia exhausts itself before now, at the beginning, what will it have left to stop the Ukrainians from rolling right to Azov?

So far Ukraine is managing the pace of fighting very well as far as I can tell.  I don't see how Russia can compensate for it.

Steve

[cesmonkey]

Or maybe not?
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/47371
 

Quote

Shooting in Novaya Kakhovka is not a battle
The shooting was already an hour ago, since then it has been quiet for a long time.
There is no anxiety in the city. Automatic weapons were fired into the air - apparently - at drones. Also, on the opposite bank, the movement of the enemy seemed to be noticed. For warning, they also shot there. In fact, no battle or attempted landings were recorded.
Such shooting from positions on the coast occurs regularly, they saw movement from the other side in the thermal imager and open fire, this cannot be called a battle.

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by cesmonkey

[Haiduk]

Hm... Russians claim about street fighting in Nova Kakhovka and attempt of UKR troops to land on left bank. No any info, on the video sounds of intensive shooting is heard

 

[Huba]

Looks like the operational pause is over an Ukrainians are on the move again. There are reports of heavy shelling by UA artillery in Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Novosilka and Tokmak directions. More interestingly, multiple RU Telgrams report fighting in Nova Kakhovka where reportedly UA amphibious landing is taking place. To be taken with a huge grain of salt of course, but something is definitely going on:

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

From what I have heard of the NCO discussion, Ukraine is and was pretty far from anything like the US system. And that is what many commentators in the States referred to as being one of the reasons for success. They have/had similar effects as the Western NCO system but the system was fundamentally different. 

 

Only stating the Ukrainian military as it was in 2021 doesn't exist anymore. No matter what you thought it was back then it is not anymore.

Losses, learning, reserve officers, expanding the force, new western training, adaptation in this war, new offensive tasks, and capacities...

I think Haiduk's point that it's not as simple as what Kofman wrote.  It's more unit specific, where one unit might still have a strong cadre of long serving professionals with good NCOs.  Not US standard, but still very different than Soviet style.  Then in another unit you might have all conscripts with mobilized officers who are hung up in the old ways with NCOs that were rushed through training.

This inconsistency is in and of itself a problem.  It makes swapping around units a much more difficult task than it should be.  The Germans had to deal with this on a massive scale especially after 1943.  All divisions had a quality rating which the general staff used to determine which units could do what tasks.  As the war went on they had fewer and fewer units that could do the full range of military tasks.  The Russians seem to be facing this same problem, but I think it is likely true to a lesser degree with Ukrainian forces.

Within the Ukrainian forces we have theoretically two tiers of units; Territorial Defense and regular military (I can't say Army because there are the Marines!).  But within each there are some TD units that are effectively as good as regular Army, some that are glorified base security.  Similarly, the regular army has some units that can do anything asked of it and more, others not so much.

The good thing I think I've seen over time is that the regular army's units have generally increased in overall quality, despite losses and conscription.  I think we can all remember incidents in the Spring of 2022 when units simply picked up and retreated without orders and without telling neighboring units.  Some of the units doing this had a history of quality problems.  I could be mistaken, but I don't think we've seen that sort of poor performance this year.

Steve

[Centurian52]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

This whole war happened because of unclear communication, and Putin thought he could get away with it. The red line around that nuke plant needs to be visible from nearby star systems.

Agreed. We should make it absolutely clear, right now, that if Russia blows up a nuclear power plant we will directly intervene with conventional forces. I believe we have already drawn that red line for tactical nukes, and blowing up a nuclear power plant isn't much better.

[cesmonkey]

Rybar thinks Orekhovo is about to get hot again:
https://t.me/s/rybar/48553

Quote

Situation in the Orekhovsky sector

In the morning, Ukrainian formations carried out reconnaissance in battle near Orekhovo : they are operating in small groups with the support of armored vehicles and artillery in the sector from Rabotino to Novopokrovka .

️Tank battles started again an hour ago.

The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will develop in two directions: Orekhov - Danilovka and Orekhov - Tokmachka . According to radio interception, it is planned to use the surviving units of the 47th Ombre and 65th Ombre of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in two waves in the next attack (the total number is up to 20,000 people).

Let's be honest: we have little faith in 20k people at the Orekhovsky site. Most likely, this is a calculation for the entire front. On our part, the RF Armed Forces are ready for attacks and are looking forward to the battle, and now they are successfully resisting the offensive.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Russian with Igła manpad took decision to sit on top of this tower...it is perfect spot to drone him. Another use of precise loitering munitions/drones- eliminating threats such as these.

 

Reminds me of the famous Monty Python skit about how to not be seen.  "Unfortunately, Private Pavel of 134 Komrade Street in Moscow, chose a rather obvious location".

Steve

[Haiduk]

About allegedle landing operation in Nova Kakhovka... I've watched today a video named "Russian batery fled from battlefield" in one of western twitter accounts. Alas, I can't find it now. There two UKR soldiers lays in the grass in 100-150 m from the road and count passing SP-howitzers and trucks.

More interesting was a writing on video: "14th of June, 2023. Lepetykha"

Lepetykha is a village in Mykolaiv oblast, but Russians never were there -probably soldier wrote incorrect name. We have only two other villages with similar names - Mala Lepetykha and Velyka Lepetykha. Both are situate each near other... on lefft bank of Dnipro on the shore in 60 km SE from Nova Kakhovka. 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

The thing is, I never expected the forum to take a meme word like Copium so seriously! I personally find it funny, it's unfortunate that this was taken as screaming insults to fellow members or undermining their intelligence, which absolutely is not my intend. It was in a definetely lighter tone, written text cannot convey accurately. 

Maybe in my other words I put some of the everyday pressure and I'm not on the receiving end to realize it. Something to improve I guess. 

It wasn't just the word "copium", it was the attitude that came across in your first post and the subsequent ones.  You didn't help things by expressing naive opinions of Russian's relationship with the truth as part of defending your positions.

If you are going to be a contrarian you could improve how you express it.  You're not a dumb or uninformed guy generally speaking, so you at least have something to build off of 

Steve

[Centurian52]

3 hours ago, danfrodo said:

I just read that UKR putting more of it's elite units onto the 'novo' offensive area.  This one leads toward Mariupol.  Here on the forum it was generally thought that an offensive like this leaves two exposed flanks while moving along the Dnieper only leaves one.  But Mariupol direction does have the advantage, if successful, of cutting off the entire land bridge at once from eastern supply lines.  This line of advance is less well defended, though RU reinforcements would be on interior lines from both sides.

Not saying this push is going to happen, but it is on the table of options. 

If I were one of those billionaire guys I would give UKR $100M just to sit in the general staff planning meetings, even if it meant I couldn't have any contact w outside world for a month or two.

If you're taking bets, my money's on the Novosilka to Mariupol direction being the main effort. Gets around the toughest defenses, traps more Russians, liberates a famous early-war battlefield, still cuts the land bridge and clears out all Russian air defenses between Ukraine's Storm Shadows and the Kerch bridge.

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, Huba said:

Looks like the operational pause is over an Ukrainians are on the move again. There are reports of heavy shelling by UA artillery in Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Novosilka and Tokmak directions. More interestingly, multiple RU Telgrams report fighting in Nova Kakhovka where reportedly UA amphibious landing is taking place. To be taken with a huge grain of salt of course, but something is definitely going on:

Good!  It appears that the initial attacks (excepting Bakhmut) were, as we speculated here, probing and/or feints designed to establish where to attack next and also to confuse the Russians.  We should expect that by now Ukraine has determined what it wants to do with this information and is now going to proceed based on it.  If so we should see a minimum of 3-5 days of intense combat.

I'm wondering if Ukraine will continue this sort of pattern.  Push in a few spots for a few days, pause, then for a few days more push harder in some places and keep the others quiet.  Then repeat this process over several weeks, introducing new units into the fight as little as possible.  Of course, if something dramatic develops I would fully expect this strategy to shift.

I have no idea if this is what they are planning on doing, but if they are I think it has the potential for improving over the performance of Kherson where it seems they started out with a more traditional "select a place and stick to it" plan.

Steve

[kevinkin]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm wondering if Ukraine will continue this sort of pattern.  Push in a few spots for a few days, pause, then for a few days more push harder in some places and keep the others quiet.  Then repeat this process over several weeks, introducing new units into the fight as little as possible.  Of course, if something dramatic develops I would fully expect this strategy to shift.

I agree totally with this type of operational method. It works with the UA strengths and against RA weaknesses. I don't think Ukraine really cares where the RA collapses; they want to make it happen somewhere. "Get inside" the enemy decision cycle and gain the advantage. Then let water flow downhill naturally. However, these probes need secure bases to operate from and that may in part explain their directions.