How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

I don't know what these HIMARS are being fired at, but I sure as Hell wouldn't want to be anywhere near there.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1668292626875834368

Nice drone footage of Ukrainian infantry taking Storozheve.  If you look really closely at the 0:50 mark you'll see a 6x6 truck that was shown from the ground all shot up by small arms fire and maybe something a little larger:

https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1668209124415291392

Steve

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, this is where the theory of the 6.8 and the reality don't play nice together.  All the trialed 6.8 rifles were heavier than the 5.56 rifles by quite a bit.  Then there's the number of rounds the average grunt can carry plus the reduced magazine capacity.  Lastly, now there's 3 ammo types (plus variants) to keep track of.

It's almost like the Army completely forgot why they moved from 7.62 to 5.56 in the first place.

That said, the 6.8 could wind up replacing the 7.62 weapons.

Steve

There is a severe confirmation bias with the ammo/stopping power discussion. The times where a reasonably well aimed bullet doesn't stop some one quickly make an extremely strong impression on the soldier involved, and spectacular click bait video. The millions, literally millions, of rounds fired in the general direction of the bad guys to suppress them, not to mention the several million more fired at innocent trees, bushes, and sheds, just to be really sure, don't. All those millions of rounds have to be manufactured, shipped, brought to the front, and then carried around. And someone on the board a while back made the point that Afghanistan is really unique case. The rifle for there is not the rifle for everywhere.

4 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

I'm gonna on record and say 6.8x51mm is fine for dmr, but is a bad idea and won't happen for your standard infantry rifle or squad mg for a bunch of reasons:

• Barrel life is going to suck, horribly. SIG claims 12k rounds; that's overly optimistic, 2k is more likely
• The round is heavier, so less ammunition carried per soldier
• The round suppresses less well, which makes it unsuitable for general purpose combat, which includes CQB and shooting from vehicles
• Recoil is higher

I think a more promising direction for small arms is going further in the direction of smart munitions- heat seeking grenade/drones, 40mm grenades that can be guided by drone, miniature missiles/drones where a soldier can carry a bunch of these, and they can seek out enemies behind cover at distances of 5m to 5km.

I also agree with this, the infantry have a great deal of stuff to carry besides rifle ammo, and they are inventing more by the minute, and you have to carry the batteries to run it all. A bigger heavier round/rifle has a high burden of proof. There was great British study posted on the the board years ago that made a good case for a SMALLER round. I think that case has only gotten stronger since then.

Edited June 13, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

Not sure if this was posted yet.  Apparently Wargonzo has a pound of optimism for every ounce of reality he reports:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's June 12th report gives some high level information about the Russian counter attack to retake Makarivka:

Quote

Russian forces reportedly launched a counterattack on June 12 in western Donetsk Oblast following Ukrainian tactical gains near the Vremivka salient on June 11. Russian sources reported that elements of the Russian 127th Motorized Rifle Division (5th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District) launched a large counterattack against Ukrainian forces in the Vremivka salient on June 12.[7] Russian forces have made no confirmed territorial gains in these counterattacks as of this publication, though some Russian sources reported that Russian forces recaptured Makarivka (5km south of Velyka Novosilka).[8] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces still control Makarivka as of June 12.[9] A Russian source reported that fighting in the Vremivka salient as ongoing and that the results of the battle are unclear.[10] Ardent nationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin claimed that, if true, these reports confirm the success of Russian flexible defense tactics in the area and that the Russian military command cares more about wearing down Ukrainian forces than regaining territory.[11] Girkin claimed that the typical defense of Russian forces is to retreat to rear areas to draw Ukrainian infantry out from Ukrainian air defense and electronic warfare coverage. Girkin claimed that Russian forces then attack the area with tank and air defense support in order to prevent the Ukrainian forces from deploying air defense elements forward to newly gained areas.

I am not inclined to disbelieve something based on nothing but faith, but I am willing to do it based on past history.

The Russians have shown no aptitude for attacking, not to mention counter attacking, since this war started.  Their successes after restarting their offensive in the Spring 2022 were limited and mostly due to obliterating Ukrainian positions with artillery.  Even then it was a slow process.

For the last 6+ months we have seen Russia make some limited tactical gains, a little here and a little there, but only after extensive fighting for the same ground.  In the case of Bakhmut, generally with massive casualties.  There's been very few examples of a coordinated attack, even on light defenses, that has gone favorably for Russia.  Attacks have also generally, nearly always in fact, been very small scale with minimal coordination with other arms or supporting units.

Now all of a sudden we're supposed to believe that Russia is capable of mounting a large scale counter attack right into the teeth of fresh, well armed Ukrainian forces in the beginning of a major counter offensive?  These Ukrainian forces are not being supported by a single 120mm mortar with 10 rounds for the day like some of the TD units Russia could barely make a dent in.

So what I'm thinking here is that Russia's counter attack got the stuffing knocked out of it and that, not the weather, is why they didn't secure their objective.

And even if Russia takes back a village from Ukrainian forces, it's going to be like the 6th SS Panzer Army taking a Hungarian village in the Spring of 1945.  Not really a game changer.

I'll happily revise my thinking of Russian offensive capabilities when I have solid proof that they are doing something militarily significant.

Steve

[MikeyD]

I had assumed the 6.8x51 round/rifle had been entirely driven by the presence of body armor in the field. 5.56's advantages are negated if they're not piercing walls or bodies. In Iraq (and in CMBS) we saw a proliferation of 7.62 specialist rifles in infantry squads to do what 5.56 can't do (I'd jokingly call them modern B.A.Rs). And in CMBS we got to test out their impact in tactical engagements.

Edited June 13, 2023 by MikeyD

[kevinkin]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not really a game changer.

I'll happily revise my thinking of Russian offensive capabilities when I have solid proof that they are doing something militarily significant.

Well said. Once again, can a well motivated and trained technically driven armed force defeat a force of greater numbers in entrenched positions. No, not without massive losses. The UA must maneuver the RA out of those positions where is no cover and nor concealment. Given the correlation of forces, it's about producing a mindset in the RA there is no hope since their logistic and medical support is in shambles. Imagine watching a friend bleed out over 48 hours because your nation did that to them. 

[Battlefront.com]

Just red Ben Hodges thoughts on the counter offensive and, surprise surprise, nothing but agreement from me   One thing he makes a big point about is how many vehicles are contained within a single Ukrainian Brigade.  He points out that until we see evidence of HUNDREDS of armored vehicles committed to a single area, then the real counter offensive hasn't started.  Which is why it's so laughable that the Russians got all excited about a dozen or so vehicles destroyed. 

As exotic and/or technically important those specific vehicles might be, there's still a lot more that haven't been committed.  Further, the Russians should remember that they have been getting their arses KICKED for the past year with mostly Soviet legacy equipment.  So losing some Leopards, Bradleys, and what not isn't really an indicator of what is yet to come.

And then there's the manpower.  Here's a Ukrainian propaganda video taken some time ago.  I'm reposting it now to simply remind everybody that when we see a video of a half dozen Ukrainian soldiers taking a strong point, or even a platoon sized action in progress, this is but a tiny fraction of what Ukraine has at its disposal in ONE brigade, not to mention 10-12 new ones + what's already at the front:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14838p5/just_warming_up/

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/12/world/africa/south-africa-russia-us-lawmakers.html

U.S. Lawmakers Ask White House to Punish South Africa for Supporting Russia

South Africa is accused of helping supply Russia with weapons for the Ukraine war, a charge that South Africa denies.

 

I do hope the Chinese Finance Ministry picks up the phone the next time they have a crisis.

•  

[The_MonkeyKing]

14 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

"I reconstructed and geolocated the route and losses of one of the two columns of the 47th mechanized brigade. Of course, I also used the work of other OSINT people, but many of the given locations were inaccurate and the place of the destruction of M2 and L2A6 was wrong. Freeze frames from movies added to the orientation of what was where.

This column had a difficult fate: it was surrounded by drone-corrected artillery 3x, it defeated 2 groups of mines, and finally, while overcoming the second one, it fell under the fire of Ka-52's Wihr ATGMs and ATGMs as well as artillery. Really KUDOS to the soldiers of this battalion because they went through hell that day.

P.S. location and slides from the second (west) column will be uploaded later. This is the one whose end was supposedly photoshopped."

Going 7 kilometers under drone-corrected artillery through two minefields and then getting waked by Ka-52s

source: https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros/status/1668251143552606214

 

 

More info on the battle and how the footage ties into it. Russians managed to milk a lot of information war material out of this <battalion sized action. 

source: https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros?s=20

 

[kevinkin]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

He points out that until we see evidence of HUNDREDS of armored vehicles committed to a single area, then the real counter offensive hasn't started.  Which is why it's so laughable that the Russians got all excited about a dozen or so vehicles destroyed. 

Another analogy is the well known wolfpack sub tactics. Stay dispersed until intel informs you to concentrate. Get the job done, disperse, and wash and repeat. Without close air support, (saying power) this will be the UA mode of operations. They have no other choice. Corrosive is the term in vogue now. But it's really Hutier tactics in 2023. 

Edited June 13, 2023 by kevinkin

[DesertFox]

4 hours ago, pintere said:

Didn’t Ukraine get like 40 Wisent 1 mineclearing tanks from Germany? They may not be as capable as mineclearing Leos, but they should surely be up for the task in most situations.

Yep. 42 are scheduled for Ukraine. They are mine clearing Leos. Chassis is Leo 1.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/western-companies-to-provide-ukraine-with-wisent-1-mc-to-break-minefields/

[DesertFox]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

More info on the battle and how the footage ties into it. Russians managed to milk a lot of information war material out of this <battalion sized action. 

source: https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros?s=20

 

Thanks that helps with understanding. However, what I totally don't get is, why on earth the Btl. CO decided 2 times to have his Btl. move transverse in front of enemy lines. Big NO NO and I guess he, if at present still in charge, would have had a small "discussion" with Brig. CO about that. Well maybe we learn over time why this Btl. acted as it did. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

38 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Thanks that helps with understanding. However, what I totally don't get is, why on earth the Btl. CO decided 2 times to have his Btl. move transverse in front of enemy lines. Big NO NO and I guess he, if at present still in charge, would have had a small "discussion" with Brig. CO about that. Well maybe we learn over time why this Btl. acted as it did. 

I think we are way too far away to make judgments on this battle.

Sometimes in war, battalions just get waked even when no nobody makes a mistake.

[DesertFox]

46 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I think we are way too far away to make judgments on this battle.

Sometimes in war, battalions just get waked even when no nobody makes a mistake.

Yep, we don't even know if it was the deliberate decision of the Btl.CO or if he was ordered to change direction. To many unknowns to make a judgement.

However the unlucky result is, that Ivan now can take a closer look at the 2A6 and will use it for his propaganda.

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1668543398268084224?s=20

 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yep, we don't even know if it was the deliberate decision of the Btl.CO or if he was ordered to change direction. To many unknowns to make a judgement.

However the unlucky result is, that Ivan now can take a closer look at the 2A6 and will use it for his propaganda.

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1668543398268084224?s=20

 

 

For sure the Russians cannot capture and evac them but destroy them for sure.

[panzermartin]

Russians don't have the means to recover a 64 ton Leopard 2 tank right? Or combined engineer vehicles can do the job. 

[Offshoot]

First they would have to go through their own minefields.

[DesertFox]

11 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Russians don't have the means to recover a 64 ton Leopard 2 tank right? Or combined engineer vehicles can do the job. 

Very unlikely. They would have to demine their own minefield for that first.

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

Not surprising. Where on earth could they find enough 25mm, 105mm, and 120mm ext. for the hundreds and hundreds of IFVs and MBTs other than the stockpiles of Depleted Uranium shell in the US and elsewhere.

Also, the 105mm guns are going to seriously need these shells in terms of penetration. 

Edited June 13, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[Beleg85]

About casualties of 47th.

[Grigb]

Guys, there is good chance that the main party would start soon - UKR Mashovets just posted

Quote

The command of the enemy troops in the Southern Operational Zone started to deploy some of their main reserves...

Not everything... and in a little "moronic" [way]... but this is a good indication...

Just in case, please bear in mind that the UKR is not fighting to breach RU defenses, but rather to attrit them enough to cause the deployment of main reserves. And, if we trust Mashovets (and I have no reason not to), RU just started doing so.

 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Guys, there is good chance that the main party would start soon - UKR Mashovets just posted

Just in case, please bear in mind that the UKR is not fighting to breach RU defenses, but rather to attrit them enough to cause the deployment of main reserves. And, if we trust Mashovets (and I have no reason not to), RU just started doing so.

 

 

 

Thanks for chiming in!  We have already had some indications that Russia has been obligated to commit its main reserves.  Now seeing the same thing from Mashovets gives me more confidence that this is indeed the case.

As we've been discussing, this is expected as Russia doesn't have all that much at the front or in reserve and, contrary to doom sayers on the Ukraine side and Zzombies on the other side, the Russian forces in contact and behind the lines are suffering significant casualties.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I think we are way too far away to make judgments on this battle.

Sometimes in war, battalions just get waked even when no nobody makes a mistake.

The more info I see on this battle (thanks for links) the more it seems that they were hit hard by Russian attack helicopters.  Unfortunately, an ideal situation for the Russians and the worst case for the Ukrainians.  As we've said many times, an "elite" NATO force could have wound up in exactly the same situation if it lacked air cover.

From one of the videos I counted 4 dead Ukrainian soldiers, 2 of which were burned very badly.  Unfortunately, as noted above, the Russians were close by and had an opportunity to get up close to the destruction (one Brad's engine was still running).  It's a pretty good guess that none of these vehicles are recoverable any longer.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Another example of why Russia is in trouble... 35th Marine Brigade is apparently the unit that liberated Makarivka.  This is not one of the new brigades, yet it is a lead element in this counter offensive.  Think about what it means that Ukraine can make as much progress as it is with a fairly minimal injection of fresh forces and then think about what will happen when the main weight is committed.

For example, in just this one video I see 8 captured Russians.  I've seen many others with similar and smaller counts.  This bolsters Ukrainian accounts that the Russians are taking heavy losses.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/148bkif/pows_meanwhile_in_one_of_the_directions_the_fund/

Steve

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The more info I see on this battle (thanks for links) the more it seems that they were hit hard by Russian attack helicopters.  Unfortunately, an ideal situation for the Russians and the worst case for the Ukrainians.  As we've said many times, an "elite" NATO force could have wound up in exactly the same situation if it lacked air cover.

From one of the videos I counted 4 dead Ukrainian soldiers, 2 of which were burned very badly.  Unfortunately, as noted above, the Russians were close by and had an opportunity to get up close to the destruction (one Brad's engine was still running).  It's a pretty good guess that none of these vehicles are recoverable any longer.

Steve

This single action has really been beat to death.  It looks like a Cbt Tm breach (still does not look like a major assault to me as there was a single lane and no explosives).  It runs into an attack helicopter/ATGMs and then loses vehicles to mines in the extraction.

And still after all the videos, I have yet to see a significant RA artillery/indirect fire response countering the minefield breach.  Everyone is too busy freaking out on the fact that western gear is allergic to explosives as Russian stuff; however, the lack of RA indirect fire support is far more interesting.

If RA artillery capability has been, or is being eroded then the impact on their defence is going to be significant.  We may also see a slower more infantry-based offence from Ukraine.  Not surprisingly western gear is also big, hot and visible so one needs to establish conditions before one can really get mileage from it.