How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

Mind you, there is a delayed time period seemingly, images that filtered into videos that were blurry then better video, etc. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

Footage of the Bradley battle UKR POV:
 

 

source (I cropped it): https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/145l0wp/same_battler_from_0806_from_afu_bradley_pow/

[kevinkin]

28 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

The final question is - will the Russians defend more actively? Do they have the capacity? 

Good questions. If active defense means deploying mobile reserves, the RA might wait to understand the main axis of the UA advance and only use those reserves if the UA breaks into the clear. But Putin has a only bad cards to play. If Ukraine can bring those forces out from cover into the open the theory is that NATO training and equipment will cut them to pieces. The idea is to expose the Russians to firepower while minimizing the firepower against Ukraine. Russia should never have been allowed to dig in and set-up. I am not sure what others think, but Russian artillery seems to be a critical thing to strike... and strike and strike again. 

Edited June 10, 2023 by kevinkin

[FancyCat]

43 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

The final question is - will the Russians defend more actively? Do they have the capacity? 

We can safely assume NATO ISR is good enough to detect that no? If so, then hopefully Ukraine is able to make the right decisions to best capitalize on a offensive. 

[FancyCat]

I'm hoping we see a combined push by the West to punish Russia for this soon.

 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Really nice interactive map of satellite located Russian fortifications:

https://nrg800.users.earthengine.app/view/russianfortifications

HINT = upper right allows toggling off sat images.  They load slowly and make it harder to see the strategic picture, but of course are great for looking in close.

Steve

I myself find this one the best:
The War in Ukraine : Scribble Maps

 

just click here to see the fortifications: 

[Battlefront.com]

56 minutes ago, Fenris said:

My thinking currently though is that RU channels have been making a lot of the the 2 KO'd Leo 2's + Bradley's but that seems to be about it... Ergo, this is the only clear defensive success they've had. 

With the Russians it is as important to note what they AREN'T talking about as what they are.  For two solid days it's been about one incident that we've already picked apart here and found to be within acceptable boundaries for even a Western breaching operation.

The reporting delay does not apply to the Russians.  They post this sort of stuff within minutes of the footage getting to someone for uploading.  Minutes.  If there was another large scale incident, and it had any footage associated with it (and it would, believe me!), then we'd see it all over the place.  Ergo, there has been no similar large scale incident.

What we are far less sure about is what's going on with the Russian forces.  The best we've seen so far is some footage of Russian soldiers fleeing.  That fits into the same category as the Brad/Leo footage... it's to be expected.  Ukraine is hitting Russia's most forward positions, there's no reason to think they are all going to hold.  And where they don't hold, there's going to be fleeing Russians. 

Ukraine will eventually start to announce settlements that have been liberated.  That will be a better, but delayed, indicator of progress.  We've had none so far, officially, but it does seem that Lobkove is in Ukraine's hands now.

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 hours ago, Simcoe said:

Per the Russians it sounds like even larger attacks happening right now. Really fascinating to see Ukraine facing the same issues with FASCAM mines as the Russians did at Uhledar. 

Also, seems like there was a lot of footage of Russian lancet drones hitting air defense systems this past month. I wonder if the attacks on Kiev and attrition at the front are hampering their ability to provide AA cover.

With both of those in mind. How the hell do you get through a regenerating minefield and no AA cover?

 

RUS sources stated these attacks were (again) repulsed with significant casualties

I think we have had a reliable indicator of RUS milblog net panicking if there is any Ukrainian success. We are still to see it in these actions.

 

Edited June 10, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[kimbosbread]

The idea of UAVs as an aerial minefield is an interesting way of thinking about framing how we think about employing them. If your minefield can be deployed at a moments notice, that is pretty cool. Do some of the principles of clearing minefields also apply to clearing an area of drones?

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I myself find this one the best:
The War in Ukraine : Scribble Maps

 

just click here to see the fortifications: 

Sheesh... you Finns stick together, don't you

Thanks for the pointer!  I've got his map open already, but I missed the defensive layer.  It's toggled ON now thanks to you.

The other one I linked to, however, does have the benefit of better micro terrain analysis.  Unfortunately without the topos or map features overlayed.

If anybody finds defenses data that can be imported into GoogleEarth Pro, please let me know.

Steve

[Simcoe]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Could be. While I take it with a massive heap of salt, Rybar said as much.

 

The lancet seems to be the single most dangerous weapon in the MoD forces. The Russians seem to have figured out their drone defense. I've seen several NATO reports that Ukrainian drones are dropping like flies while lancet are everywhere.

Anyone know what made the difference?

[Battlefront.com]

1.  Girkin is kinda freaking out in his own way:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1667288527099314179

2.  Wow!  Looks like Russia used its missiles to attack an actual military target AND managed to hit it.  Damaged an airfield, but apparently (thankfully) nobody was hurt:

3.  Ukraine targeted something (likely military housing) pm tje Arabat Spit:

Steve

[Kinophile]

35 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I myself find this one the best:
The War in Ukraine : Scribble Maps

 

just click here to see the fortifications: 

The more I look at that Zaporizhia defense works, the less I'm convinced this will be where the ZSU hammer blow falls. It's a lot of work. A lot. 

[Kraft]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Absolutely this was not the fuster cluck it initially looked like.  Thanks to subsequent RUSSIAN videos posted, it is clear that the Ukrainians didn't so anything outstanding in the stupid department.

Does that include sending in a 2nd batch of Bradleys, to just drive straight around the first group with 0 mineclearing vehicles?

[FancyCat]

Ukraine needs more equipment!

 

[chrisl]

4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

The more I look at that Zaporizhia defense works, the less I'm convinced this will be where the ZSU hammer blow falls. It's a lot of work. A lot. 

But do you know where it could fall in a couple weeks?

Through the former reservoir bed that Russia decided to drain, and around the flanks of the RU defenses.  There won't be any defensive works there, and Russia probably doesn't have the resources right now to extend defensive positions into that space under fire and while it's still muddy.  But depending on what's on the bottom, if the UA can suppress Russian fire within range of it, it could provide access for a rapid flanking move.

[The_MonkeyKing]

4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

The more I look at that Zaporizhia defense works, the less I'm convinced this will be where the ZSU hammer blow falls. It's a lot of work. A lot. 

Also, it is the terrain that needs the fortifications the most. Might also mean Russia has less capability manning them.

So we cannot really jump to any conclusions based on the fortifications alone

[cesmonkey]

On a somewhat positive note:

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Also, it is the terrain that needs the fortifications the most. Might also mean Russia has less capability manning them.

So we cannot really jump to any conclusions based on the fortifications alone

Correct.  It is more than likely that most of those fortifications away from the front have very few, if any, troops manning them.  Instead the subsequent trenches are "fallback" positions.  The more Russia loses in the first belts, the less it has to pull back to man subsequent ones.

Steve

[FancyCat]

17 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

The more I look at that Zaporizhia defense works, the less I'm convinced this will be where the ZSU hammer blow falls. It's a lot of work. A lot. 

Sure, but like many have stated, take Melitopol, you unhinge the kherson front, you unhinge the rest of the front to Donetsk, you gain a sea presence in the Azov, vital to cutting off sea access to Crimea, you open huge avenues for Ukraine to conduct further offensive operations. Heavy defenses cause Russia knows that if they lose it, their position declines hugely.

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Does that include sending in a 2nd batch of Bradleys, to just drive straight around the first group with 0 mineclearing vehicles?

See my revised assessment of what happened:

The footage from the Ukrainian Brad backs up what I wrote above, even though it was posted after.

The initial Russian drone and the Ukrainian Brad footage shows there were many more Ukrainian vehicles in the fight than were left disabled on the battlefield.  Which means as large as the losses were for the unit, it wasn't total destruction.

Steve

[Kinophile]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Correct.  It is more than likely that most of those fortifications away from the front have very few, if any, troops manning them.  Instead the subsequent trenches are "fallback" positions.  The more Russia loses in the first belts, the less it has to pull back to man subsequent ones.

Steve

Absolutely. But theres not much so far (yes early days, so really only in 5 days as I posited before) to suggest the Russians are cracking in anything more than very localized engagements. They could very well have their crap together in this area, lord knows theyve had time and opportunity. 

It just seems like an area that could easily develop into a Kherson style steady grind forward. The terrain is not great for defense, certainly, but it sure as heck isnt good for the Offence either. 

Essentially, I'm not convinced this is where the ZSU will break the front. Dent, salient, threaten Melitopol, sure. But a lot has to wrong for the Ivan for a breakthrough.

This could, though, be a fixing op to pin the Russians into place, commit their reserves (because theyll only do so to an actual heavy assault) then instead cut down towards Mariupol...

Edited June 10, 2023 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, FancyCat said:

Sure, but like many have stated, take Melitopol, you unhinge the kherson front, you unhinge the rest of the front to Donetsk, you gain a sea presence in the Azov, vital to cutting off sea access to Crimea, you open huge avenues for Ukraine to conduct further offensive operations. Heavy defenses cause Russia knows that if they lose it, their position declines hugely.

For sure.  I keep saying over and over again... Russians do NOT like being surrounded.  They will abandon all of their trenches, in a heartbeat, if they think they're going to be cut off from retreat.

The counter offensive I envisioned months ago counts on this in that goal isn't to take all the trenches, it's to get through somewhere and cut in behind to the left and/or right, obligate the Russians to retreat, and move on to something else.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

June 9th ISW report says that Russia claimed it defeated some localized Ukrainian counter attacks in the northern Donbas front.  This is the first time in a while we've seen such reports.  We'd expect Ukraine to say nothing about it, so it could very well be true.  Such a thing is likely to happen in various parts of the front periodically to keep Russian forces distracted.  Unlike the stupid and constant small attacks Russia made since last year, I expect these will be selective and carefully crafted for maximum noise and minimum casualties.

Steve

 

[Anon052]

4 hours ago, Simcoe said:

Also, seems like there was a lot of footage of Russian lancet drones hitting air defense systems this past month. I wonder if the attacks on Kiev and attrition at the front are hampering their ability to provide AA cover.

With both of those in mind. How the hell do you get through a regenerating minefield and no AA cover?

 

 

There was a video that showed a loitering munition hit on an IRIS-T SLS mounted radar near the southern front.

My question to those more knowledgable than me. How many of those radars are in a single IRIS-T SLS system? One? Does the loss of the radar take the entire system out of the game?

I have read that the IRIS-T SLS proved to be very effective near the front in bakhmut earlier this year, where it took down several aircraft. How important do you think in the wider context is the loss  of one system (there  were 2 systems sent  to ukraine at the moment I think)? Especially for the southern offensive. The positioning near the front means  that it was used to cover  the spearheads?

Edited June 10, 2023 by Anon052