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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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Guys, let's put a stop to the pointless beating of the dead horse.  All logic, all evidence, and all long standing historical precedent says that Russia blew the dam.  Let's not waste time making a better case for "Ukraine did it" than Russia has managed to come up with, eh?  The exact circumstances are still unknown, but for sure Russia blew it up.

If it walks like a duck, flies like a duck, swims like a duck, quack likes a duck, and eats like a duck there is no point exploring the possibility it it might be a moose.

Steve

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https://t.me/strelkovii/5310

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Fierce battles unfolded in Zaporozhye near the city of Orekhov. Nothing more is known yet. One can only assume that after an auxiliary-distracting strike in the Volnovakha-Mariupol direction (as I already wrote - in terms of the number of forces and means brought into battle, the enemy’s attacks were not “pulled” for more than an auxiliary strike) the enemy can inflict the main one on some other direction. (If anyone remembers, this is exactly the scenario I wrote and said: first, sabotage raids (to pull our reserves) to the "old border", then - distracting and auxiliary strikes, and only then - an offensive in the main chosen direction).
Let's see. There is nothing left for us (well, at least for me) for now.

P.S. They write about the use of aviation by the enemy on the Zaporozhye front. Let me remind you that in the area west of Ugledar, the enemy did nothing of the kind in all the past days of his offensive. Indirectly, this may indicate more serious intentions in the Orekhovo region.

 

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1 hour ago, billbindc said:

<psst! Have you seen the American plans to invade Canada yet?>

Again?!  I mean how did Operation Canuck Freedom go last time?  https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/war-of-1812
 

Of course the old adage “History is written by the losers who only remember New Orleans, and left unchallenged by the winners who are too polite to bring it up and still feel bad about burning the White House” applies here.

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Sadly, Russia is all too willing and even eager to disable international organizations from assisting the disaster relief, so I'm unsurprised about lack of ICRC and UN assistance on the occupied side, but I do think the implication of NS1 and NS2 does cause some general unease about strong statements. Also, i do think the refrain from a very strong Western or International response is due to the brazenness of the dam collapse, if indeed Russia opted for such a violation of IHL, a member of the P5, the West needs to get its ducks in order to accuse Russia of such a action, in order to avoid Iraq 2's lack of WMDs and accusations of Western hypocrisy and Russia mounting a strong non-Western aligned PR response. 

 

 

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About situation of civilians- some people, especially elderly are still trapped inside houses. Much worse situation is ofc. on Russian-held shore.

Mailed my friend who is in Odessa, she said some families of refugees now try to despartely go back to Kherson and save whatever/whoever they can. This is also problematic, since military at the peak of crucial offensive naturally do not like to let civilians freely roam around. Fortunatelly it doesn't seem this direction was packed with more military hardware, at least it is not visible on roads.

 

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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Again?!  I mean how did Operation Canuck Freedom go last time?  https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/war-of-1812
 

Of course the old adage “History is written by the losers who only remember New Orleans, and left unchallenged by the winners who are too polite to bring it up and still feel bad about burning the White House” applies here.

Yes, we memory holed our failures in the War of 1812 utterly. I will simply point out that that the rather thorough forgetting has led to two hundred years of extraordinarily harmonious relations between the two countries, which probably makes it the most successful propaganda campaign in written history.  

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Russians unfortunatelly reached IRIS-T radar.

Can't still believe such small flying bugger as Lancet (and similar) is probably single most effective Russian weapon of this war, putting to shame T-90's, ballistic rockets, artillery, EW equipment (50/50 here, maybe) and other stuff they liked to bragg so much before the war.

 

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Sounds like partisans have been doing the most effective thing they can to corrode russia’s rail network: Destroying signal and relay cabinets!

https://old.reddit.com/r/FreedomofRussia/comments/14389r5/this_week_in_partisan_a_summary_of_recent/

The effect won’t be immediate of course, but as with bearing shortages, this will slowly cripple the rail network.

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The orcs really seem to be obsessed with Leopard 2s...

Google translation:

"RUS propaganda, however, are retards, which are not enough.
You know my yesterday's episode about the slaughter of Leopard 2s in Syria? Well, from ISIS videos, Russian brysie bears cut out one of the leons, recolored it and pasted it behind their smashed teciak.
And before that we had the great Zaporozhian John Deer mascara with the Ka-52."

 

 

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33 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Russians unfortunatelly reached IRIS-T radar.

Can't still believe such small flying bugger as Lancet (and similar) is probably single most effective Russian weapon of this war, putting to shame T-90's, ballistic rockets, artillery, EW equipment (50/50 here, maybe) and other stuff they liked to bragg so much before the war.

 

It's Orlan-10, Orlan, always about Orlan. Not sure on Ukraine/NATO side if they have any plan to deal with this threat. 

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4 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

It's Orlan-10, Orlan, always about Orlan. Not sure on Ukraine/NATO side if they have any plan to deal with this threat. 

They bleeping need one, I ranted about this months ago at length.

https://www.facebook.com/RaytheonIntel/videos/890101412410337/

I think every single prototype laser armed Stryker ought to be in Ukraine parked next to things like Iris-T radars

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32 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

The orcs really seem to be obsessed with Leopard 2s...

Google translation:

"RUS propaganda, however, are retards, which are not enough.
You know my yesterday's episode about the slaughter of Leopard 2s in Syria? Well, from ISIS videos, Russian brysie bears cut out one of the leons, recolored it and pasted it behind their smashed teciak.
And before that we had the great Zaporozhian John Deer mascara with the Ka-52."

 

 

When I hear pro-Russians say "both sides lie", I think of things like this.  Consistently throughout this war, ever since 2014, the effort by pro-Russians to fake evidence is decidedly on their shoulders.  Not just about little stuff like a tank or something, but big things.  Oh, say, the circumstances surrounding the shooting down of a civilian airliner for example.

Steve

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