How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Hapless]

Quick TLDR:

Inundation is an ancient defensive measure- if the Russians are worried about Ukrainians crossing the Dnieper in the south then it makes sense to make improve the river as an obstacle. This obviously works below the damn because of rising levels, but also above in the Khakovka reservoir because as the water level drops it's going to make it potentially less navigable (ie. anyone crossing now has to worry about running into silt beds, rocks, wrecks etc that are now closer to the surface).

If the lack of water for the nuclear power plant makes a melt down more likely then, well, bonus. The risk might encourage Ukraine to be more cautious around the plant and an actual (if particualrly catastrophic) melt down might make the area a real no-go zone and secure the Dnieper flank even more.

What's really interesting is that Russia has only now blown up a major dam. It could be that dams are such chunky hardened structures (and that Russian stand-off precision weapons are not precise enough) that sneaking in overnight and packing the interior of the dam with explosives is the only way to blow one up.

The Dnieper has plenty of dams with an awful lot of water behind them all the way up to Kyiv. If the Kyiv reservoir is opened up, the mass of water might (big might, I don't know how the dams are rated) be enough to overwhelm the dams downstream, resulting in sequential dam failures all the way to Black Sea. That would not only obviously be an atrocious ecological and human disaster, but cut the country in half and sever Ukrainian logistics. Oh, and if that's not bad enough there are layers of radioactive sediment in the bottom of especially the northern reservoirs that could get churned up and added into the mix to make things even worse.

So I assume the Russians haven't done that because they can't... and hopefully it wonudl never work because all the dams along the Dnieper are massively overengineered Sovet megaprojects.

[FancyCat]

8 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Oh my, they are all leading themselves to a wider self annihilation each passing day. I hope at least the nuclear plant stays safe. 

If the Russians had planned to blow up the dam, there must have been a months long preparation to secure water supply in Crimea, especially since summer is here?

 

https://tass.com/russia/1535583

Enough water for 2 years.

[FancyCat]

You can plant explosives underwater right? Wouldn't that mitigate visible damage?

 

[Bulletpoint]

While I'm not a dam engineer either, I am pretty sure such structures are engineered to be strong enough that they won't break even if the dam is at full capacity.

It seems bizarre that it would have been in operation for so many years and then suddenly collapse just as the Ukrainian counteroffensive is imminent.

Ukraine would have no incentive to blow up the dam either, so the arrow clearly points to Russian sabotage on this one.

[Butschi]

56 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Exactly. Would have been a strange coincidence if it collapsed "naturally". 

 

 

If Visegrad 24 says it was the Russians it has to be true, of course.

Seriously, though, of course the Russians are perfectly capable of blowing the dam and certainly aren't troubled with too many moral scruples.

That's not evidence, though, and absolutely doesn't rule out catastrophic failure, right?

I mean, we aren't in church here, no need to show faith. I for one will sit back and wait until we know more.

 

Edited June 6, 2023 by Butschi

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, Butschi said:

If Visegrad 24 says it was the Russians it has to be true, of course.

Of course the Russians are perfectly capable of blowing the dam and certainly aren't troubled with too many moral scruples.

That's not evidence, though, and absolutely doesn't rule out catastrophic failure.

We aren't in church here, no need to show faith. I for one will sit back and wait until we know more.

 

That is of course always a sensible position, but maybe also overly cautious in this case.

I'm also one of the contrarians here, but I think that this time, we can safely assume as a "working hypothesis" that it was the Russians unless we see proof to the contrary.

[DesertFox]

8 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

While I'm not a dam engineer either, I am pretty sure such structures are engineered to be strong enough that they won't break even if the dam is at full capacity.

It seems bizarre that it would have been in operation for so many years and then suddenly collapse just as the Ukrainian counteroffensive is imminent.

Ukraine would have no incentive to blow up the dam either, so the arrow clearly points to Russian sabotage on this one.

Quite obvious. They now can shift troops eastwards. However they shot themselves in the foot. They basically gave up water supply for Crimea. They will pay the price.

 

 

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

And that's why this thread is so great, the scope of available expertise is off the charts!

Given the scale of destruction and the timing alone, I'm firmly in the "Russians did it!" camp. It will obviously stop any Ukrainian attack across the Dnipro, for now... But summer is only about to start, I wonder if in a few months it won't open a whole new section of the front? There's a quite big artificial reservoir near where I live, which is being completely drained every few years and apart from the old riverbed itself, it is perfectly possible to walk on it's bottom after it dries up a bit, which I did personally multiple times. It is even more true in winter when the mud just freezes over. 

Edit:

A map of the Kakhovsky Reservoir area before the dam was build:

There's similar around here in the San Gabriel River.  They hold the water in a series of dams in the mountains and have major releases when they need to make space for winter rains or spring melt.  There's a section that turns into an off highway vehicle rec area when it's drained.  This is likely a temporary help to Russia at best, and potentially makes things worse for them when the water settles.

[FancyCat]

Meh, if you think the offensive is going to be successful, then Ukraine was gonna retake the dam and the canal soon enough anyway so water supply to Crimea was gonna stop soon enough anyway. That road would have been key to supplying forces on the left bank.

 

[chrisl]

46 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

https://tass.com/russia/1535583

Enough water for 2 years.

Right above an article that says that Russian forces destroyed 1500 Ukrainian troops, 8 leopard tanks, and 10^9 other armored vehicles.  There are satellite assets that can give the water levels of all the reservoirs pretty accurately - there will probably be some geospatial hydrology grogs posting on twitter in a few days.

[Bulletpoint]

Another potential reason for the dam breach: It might have been rigged to explode but the explosives were triggered by some kind of technical malfunction or mistake.

[Butschi]

14 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think that this time, we can safely assume as a "working hypothesis" that it was the Russians unless we see proof to the contrary.

Sure. And I certainly have a strong suspicion who the culprit is, too.

[DesertFox]

 

 

 

[DesertFox]

19 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Another potential reason for the dam breach: It might have been rigged to explode but the explosives were triggered by some kind of technical malfunction or mistake.

The malfunction were the orcs blowing stuff up. It's scorched earth policy they are known for.

 

 

Edited June 6, 2023 by DesertFox

[Kinophile]

 

 

Edited June 6, 2023 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

Level of water in Kakhovka reservoir. Russians artifically extremaly increased level of water. It's hard to say only this caused ruining of dam section or additionally turbine facility were blown up to. Dam already had partial damage from UKR fire (but even several 155 mm and HIMARSes for such construction is like a shot for elefant) and Russian partial blowing after they left Kherson. Since this time Russians were dropping the water in controlled way, but now they during two month kept the gate locked.    

 

Flooding zone. Left bank, occupied by Russia will be more affected. Reportedly UKR garrisons retreated from islands and small bridgehead on left bank. "Ukrhydroenergo" representative made assesment that "big water" will pass during four days.

  

Alas, I can't find now a video, on which is visible reducing the level of water in Northern-Crimean canal. So, Crimea lety be ready to be with limeted water supply during hot summer

[DesertFox]

Crimean canal is now flowing backwards

 

 

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Haiduk]

Result of this night strike 35 Kh-101/555 missiles launched, 35 intercepted. Among them 20 over Kyiv and suburbs (yes, again wake up at 3:15 %) )

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

 

It can be old video. Other night video is sharing now with huge explosion on the dam, but it of November of 2022.

[Haiduk]

UN now. This useless couple of bureacrats should be dismissed. 

 

[cesmonkey]

Rybar admits Ukraine made somewhat of a breakthrough to the north of Bakhmut:

https://t.me/rybar/48094

Google translation:

Quote

After the withdrawal of PMC assault groups, the entire burden of defense fell on regular troops. Using shortcomings in the organization of communication between units and formations of the RF Armed Forces, Ukrainian formations wedged into the defense and cut off Russian positions piece by piece.

 

[chuckdyke]

An all different level.

 

 

[Huba]

Interestingly, some RU Telegram channels seem to be worried that the flooding might in fact help facilitate UA landings by disorganising Russian defence lines. A long call of course, but perhaps this might in fact be a great opportunity for UA to establish themselves at the Kinburn Spit? Any Russian forces there are probably going to be cut off for some time at least.

 

Edit: It appears that Girkin thinks the same:

 

 

Edited June 6, 2023 by Huba

[Bulletpoint]

56 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

The malfunction were the orcs blowing stuff up. It's scorched earth policy they are known for.

 

 

The Russians are not only known for scorched earth policy, but also for a staggering level of incompetence.

Here in Denmark, we had several of cases of drunk Russian captains zig-zagging through our waters, and crashing their ships into our bridges, harbours, etc.

As I wrote before, I'm pretty convinced they blew up the dam on purpose, but just to be fair, I'm ready to also believe that it was a Russian falling asleep on the red button.