How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/01/world/europe/ukraine-kyiv-air-defense-russia.html

Essentially a chat with a mounted stinger crew, but interesting. 

@Haiduk what do you do? Do you head to a shelter or stay at home? 

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, JonS said:

Hobart's Funnies ride again.

Hobart's funnies saved a lot of lives the first time around, at least according to every thing I ever read about them.

 

[Armorgunner]

When is the M1A1 expected to arrive in Ukraine?

Edited June 1, 2023 by Armorgunner

[Armorgunner]

On 2/24/2022 at 8:52 PM, Armorgunner said:

The most interesting part. Is that the Russian Armys Elite: The 1st Guards Tank Army, containing: 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Order of Lenin Red Banner Tank Division, 2nd Guards M. I. Kalinin Taman Motor Rifle Division, 6th Separate Tank Brigade, and 27th Separate Guards Sevastopol Red Banner Motor Rifle Brigade. Attacking Charkiw, has been halted by dead hard resistance!!! Can Ukrainian troops stop the 1st Guards Tank Army, they can stop everything Russia can throw at them 

 

On 2/24/2022 at 8:55 PM, Aragorn2002 said:

I don't think that's realistic. This will be over in a couple of weeks. 

Hello 

[Kinophile]

13 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

When is the M1A1 expected to arrive in Ukraine?

Late Autumn at earliest,apparently. Make sense,  considering the Offensive will be peaking around September.  Any earlier with the Abrams and theyd just be stressing an already busy logistics system.

[kimbosbread]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I have a weird sense about that western axis.  Most are writing it off because of the river crossing requirement but there are a lot of pluses for doing the big shove here

I like it for all the reasons you said and because it’s the express route to Crimea. I’ll absolutely wager as six pack of extremely hipster beer that they’ll cross the river in force.

UA were to build several pontoon bridges + ferry, does Russia have any weapons they could use to target it with a high degree of success? It doesn’t seem like their missiles are very precise, Lancet has too small a warhead, and increased SAM coverage makes an aerial attack much riskier.

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

A successful push over the river even just to Perekop would effectively cut off the Crimean peninsula and a follow on offensive to Berdiansk or Mariupol might just bag most of the Russian army to the west of that point. Russian GLOC are based on a few main roads and singular rail lines across the front. It would be audacious but that sort of operation solves some big complications and plays against Russian vulnerabilities. 

 

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Result of night attack - 7 Iskander-M and 3 Iskander-K are intercepted, but large fragments of misiles, damaged several buildings and cars. Most of damages are in NE districts of Kyiv. 

Tragical incident happened when people tried to come in shelter located in polyclinic. Drunken security rejected to open the door and in this moment either was air explosion or large fragment of intercepted missile hit at this place - two women and 9-year girl were killed, 12 were wounded. The security is arrested now, probably investigation will be opened against head physician of polyclinic, which probably has ordered security to reject passing of people. 

This is not firsr accident, where during air raids people either encountered with closed shelters or owners of private facilities or residentioal complexes rejected a passing for "not-residents"

SInce morning two more air raids alarms of ballistic manace, but both times there were EW imitations of launches. 

On the photo - polyclinic building, damaged this night and some unknown building ruined by fragment of missile

 

In a war the size of this one I am sure there is some suitably awful task these cretins can be set to.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Mostly correct,  but the columns were not rebuilt, just the decks were replaced. 

The fun part of these photos is that those are vertical cracks, extending from base to top. You can bet a billion rubles those fractures extend further down. These seem like compressive failure cracks in the concrete,  which could be caused by the concrete itself being of shoddy manufacture and/or casting,  the rebar inside twisting or shifting (crap steel,  bad arrangement of rebar, insufficient rebar) or (and we know this to be the structural history of previous bridges in the area) the foundations are on the ****ty side of a stress curve. The ground below the bridge is notoriously unreliable in different and separate ways. 

The extent and consistency of the fractures implies internal failure within the columns extending down to the base, which itself doesn't show cracking,  that we can see.

The columns are not clad so this isn't external damage to a system separate from the primary structure -  this is the primary structure.

Also,  the visual proof its happening in both columns and showing similar patterning implies similar causation and propagation. Because the columns were built in identical fashion this makes sense.

That also proves that it is not a single point failure, but a systemic or area failure affecting both columns. 

I'm curious if these columns are near or below the blast zone. That would help explain how the cracking started, which combined with any of the factors above would start a slow but sure, internal failure cascade. It could also just be a **** build. 

Further visible development of the failure would be bulging, sections/plates of concrete falling off and exposing the rebar,  warping or twisting of the columns proper and fracturing at the connection zone where the columns meet the base. 

Hard to know the timeline,  it comes down to just how bad is the construction,  how heavy and constant is the live load,  if any repairs or additional support added (unlikely to stop it  and short term at best)  and weathering. Six months to failure?  

An army and foreign population trying to evacuate would stress everything nicely... 

A storm shadow to the base of this arrangement would be ideal. 

Over to you,  @chrisl... 

Yeah, those cracks are weird and they don't quite make sense.  

Concrete (at least well made concrete) is super strong in compression and weak in tension - that's why it has rebar in it.  The steel rebar is strong in tension and weak in compression.  Together they make well-made reinforced concrete extremely tough.  

Those cracks are weird because they're parallel to the load, long, and consistent from column to column.  And they may be deep.  My best guess is that they're from thermal expansion, and the rebar structures inside them were built by guys who even the FL condo industry wouldn't take.  They look like the internal rebar structures were made in halves that were supposed to be tied together with lengths of rebar that extend from each half into the other half and are tied to the opposing structure. Except they weren't tied.  And the lengths that are supposed to extend across may not extend across.  So when the concrete temperature cycles, it develops cracks on the part that's not reinforced. The way the cracks jump back and forth at close to right angles seems to support that - it may have been weakly tied and those are the lines along which the ties were weak or missing.

Also note that those two pics are different structures - one of them has the smaller base atop the square base and the other doesn't.  Especially weird is that the smaller base doesn't appear to show any cracking at all - the cracks coming down the pillars should have extended into that, at least a little, unless it's a completely separate pour and we can't see the lines because of the photo resolution.  It might also be my imagination that you can see separate pour sections in each of the columns (sometimes the cracks zig at what appear to be the boundaries) so there could be a lot of variation in the concrete quality.  I'd guess it's mostly not too terrible, since we don't see a lot of spalling or horizontal cracks around the circumference at the points where it looks like the different pours are.

In the one that doesn't have a smaller base across the square pier, there's a little line of discoloration that might be a sign of a crack partway between the columns, or it may be nothing, it's hard to tell from the resolution.  The bases generally look structurally separate, since the cracks didn't propagate into them.  That's probably not a good thing because it could be easy separation points.

All the cracks look relatively new, since we don't see a lot (or really any) of rust around them that would indicate corrosion from exposure of the rebar to the salt water.  There are non-corroding kinds of rebar, and coatings for steel rebar to keep it from corroding, but I would have expected them to cheap out on something that's invisible in the bridge.

eta: those vertical cracks aren't a new thing, and RU may have been adding things for years to try to mitigate them:

 

Edited June 1, 2023 by chrisl

[Haiduk]

56 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:

From Wiki: The greeting "Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!" later became the official slogan of Stepan Bandera's wing of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, the OUN-B, in April 1941

And what? They also used blue-and-yellow flag. So, our flag also "fascist symbol", according to this logic

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Ales Dvorak]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

And what? They also used blue-and-yellow flag. So, our flag also "fascist symbol", according to this logic

Don't know. Ask Milanović.

[poesel]

4 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Gepard is a special beast, very well liked all around it seems...Who would have thought of that? It went into retirement 2012.

Global Military Products Inc,* Tampa, Florida, was awarded an $118,375,740 firm-fixed-price contract for the purchase and delivery of Gepard 35 mm air defense systems. Bids were solicited via the internet with one received. Work will be performed in Amman, Jordan, with an estimated completion date of May 30, 2024. Fiscal 2010 Foreign Military Sales (Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative) funds in the amount of $118,375,740 were obligated at the time of the award. Army Contracting Command, Newark, New Jersey, is the contracting activity (W15QKN-23-C-0012). 

> U.S. Department of Defense > Contract

 

 

This is also an upgraded version from the Netherlands, which has a better radar:

 

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, poesel said:

This is also an upgraded version from the Netherlands, which has a better radar:

 

Yep, thats why the US make the deal with Jordan. "Gepard Deluxe" so to speak or Cheetah CA3. I had the pleasure to climb over one in Todendorf when we were with our Leos in Putlos some 30 years ago. Do we have any hint how many vehicles Jordan has for sale?

[Armorgunner]

33 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Late Autumn at earliest,apparently. Make sense,  considering the Offensive will be peaking around September.  Any earlier with the Abrams and theyd just be stressing an already busy logistics system.

Sad that they wont arrive earlier, but its understandable.

 

Is there any country in the world right now, with more different models of Artillery, Tanks, and AFV´s in their arsenal, than Ukraine? Even smallarms.

Edited June 1, 2023 by Armorgunner

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/01/world/europe/ukraine-kyiv-air-defense-russia.html

Essentially a chat with a mounted stinger crew, but interesting. 

@Haiduk what do you do? Do you head to a shelter or stay at home? 

Currently I'm in subway, coming home from the work ) We haven't shelters in our quarter and because ballistic missile comes to Kyiv through 5-6 minutes after the launch, we can only "in God and AD trust" )

[Kraft]

18 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:

Don't know. Ask Milanović.

Arent you the one bringing his arguments forward?

 

[Ales Dvorak]

19 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Arent you the one bringing his arguments forward?

 

No, I said maybe. Do you have any better argument / idea why Milanović said that?

Edited June 1, 2023 by Ales Dvorak

[Huba]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

I like it for all the reasons you said and because it’s the express route to Crimea. I’ll absolutely wager as six pack of extremely hipster beer that they’ll cross the river in force.

UA were to build several pontoon bridges + ferry, does Russia have any weapons they could use to target it with a high degree of success? It doesn’t seem like their missiles are very precise, Lancet has too small a warhead, and increased SAM coverage makes an aerial attack much riskier.

That is at least 500m of river to bridge though - I'd love if UA could pull that off, but it sounds like quite a challenge. Do they even have enough equipment to attempt that, say in at least 3 points? 
Given the fate of Bilohorivka crossing, probably plain old artillery would be the biggest threat. Is it realistic to expect UA counter-battery to be good enough to protect against that, until large enough bridgehead is established? OTOH I think that UA has enough AD assets to protect the crossing against airborne threats, be it ballistic or cruise missiles or guided bombs or drones, as proven by defence of Kyiv.
Another major threat to this plan would be Russians blowing up the Kakhovka dam - if they manage that, not only would existing crossings be destroyed, but further attempts stopped in their tracks, for a month at least. Capturing the whole dam area would be a pre-requisite for any bridging operation.

In other news, the summit in Moldova might bring some very important developments:

 

Edited June 1, 2023 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

No way they will be used as Wagnerovtsy were. Except maybe 2 battalions of personal guard, it's still more tribal militia than regular army. VERY susceptible to casualties, quite possibly largely untrained in advanced tactics. If they will be indeed kept in trenches to hold the line it will be problematic enough for Russian command. Not metioning, they hate to actually dig those trenches or performing any manual labour (this was also confirmed by some Russian milbloggers early in the war).

Yup, which is why I'm thinking this is an act of desperation.  Up until now it seems Kadyrov has been able to keep his precious TikTokers out of serious fighting, even when Russia was desperate in Fall 2022.  We've heard Kadyrov brag about his guys being deployed to the front, including some really funny videos of them in trenches in the forests of Luhansk late last year.

5 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

I suspect Kadyrov is bragging and most will be (again, traditionally) used in a role of "small NKVD".

For sure it could be like previous times where Kadyrov brags and yet they deploy well to the rear or not at all.  That said, this time feels different for some reason I can't quite put my finger on.  Time will tell.

Whatever the case might be, I agree with you that it is highly unlikely Kadyrovites will be used like Wagnerites (i.e. wasteful assaults).  I'm thinking defensive only.  If they are used offensively it will likely be short lived before that practice is stopped.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Always good for a laugh...

 

 

This is not surprising at all.  The bridge itself was originally constructed with great haste by Russians (i.e. corrupt and prone to half assing).  The repairs were also done with great haste and by Russians.  This particular section appears to have been one damaged during the explosion, but it was not replaced as it should have been.  That would have cost more time and money, so they probably tried sealing the cracks and leaving it as it was.  That won't work.  Once rebar has been exposed to salt it keeps deteriorating (from what I understand).

However, this sort of damage is probably not fatal for many years.  Therefore, it's more a source for humor than it is structural failure.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I have a weird sense about that western axis.  Most are writing it off because of the river crossing requirement but there are a lot of pluses for doing the big shove here

- Russian force strength are weakest in this area because they also think the river will make it too hard

- Right flank is the Black Sea as opposed to double flanks just about everywhere else.

- Bottle up the RA in Crimea and then push left towards Melitopol makes a lot of sense.

- several MSR options that could support at least 3 axis of advance

If the UA could get across that river in several locations and sustain it, they could crash in on that front, and then do a push down from the north in the center simultaneously it would likely paralyze the RA.  

When I looked at this in detail some months ago I became convinced that Ukraine would do one of two things:

1. Make it look like a major crossing is part of the counter offensive, but not really do much with it in fact.  More or less a feint designed to tie down Russian resources that can be cut off by the main effort coming from the north.
2. Time some form of river crossing to coincide with the main effort coming down from the north, both as a distraction and as a real threat of getting in behind Russian forces defending against the main attack.

Either as a distraction or a well timed flank attack, Ukraine doesn't have to do a massive opposed river crossing to have an operational impact on Russia's defenses.  Russia must presume the river is under real threat and act accordingly.

Personally I don't see any reason why Ukraine would want to put too much emphasis on a river crossing.  It's highly prone to failure or, at a minimum, stalling.  This is not something Ukraine should be flirting with.  An offensive coming from existing positions on the left bank is far more certain in terms of outcome.  Posing a threat, real or perceived, of crossing the river enhances the probable main effort.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

The dam being blown is certainly a risk- ferries seem like they’d more flexible taking that scenario into account. If you ferried across a dozen or two humvees and amx10s (100L and 500L fuel capacity respectively) and a fuel truck or two (7000L capacity) you’d have some signficiant raiding potential if they don’t get bogged down on the first defenses they find. That kind of force seems very ferryable in short order.

[Battlefront.com]

More from the Russian liberation groups they are, once again, on Russian Federation territory.  Specifically, Shebekino:
 

https://www.newsweek.com/tanks-russia-ukraine-belgorod-freedom-legion-volunteer-corps-border-1803756

Videos uploaded from the RVK documenting the latest incursion:

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/LoveForUkraine/comments/13xet8t/breaking_the_monokrystal_factory_in_shebekino_is/

Steve

[Seedorf81]

Just now:

Dutch government wants to buy dozens of extra Leopard1-tanks for Ukraine.

Problem is that they wanna buy 'm from a Swiss company, and the Swiss government needs to approve the buy. The well-known "neutrality-stance" from the Swiss can cause delay or a "NO".

To be continued..

 

[A Canadian Cat]

16 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Wasn’t a stronger and more photogenic Chamberlain, Churchill?

Only to Canadian photographers:

https://karsh.org/photographs/winston-churchill/