How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

 

4 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

This is pretty ridiculous.

South-Africa changes the law so not to follow the law?!

ttps://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-africa-65361205?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=64761bce3d616e0a28d068a7%26South Africa to change law to stop arrest of Putin%262023-05-30T16%3A30%3A28.324Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:005fa370-a777-409e-bed0-f6ffc7bfd80a&pinned_post_asset_id=64761bce3d616e0a28d068a7&pinned_post_type=share

U.S. relations with south Africa are about to get a frosty.

[Haiduk]

Reportedly idea to conscript convicted to MoD units was bad idea without Wagners disciplne. For several days already third of four news about mass desering of convicts with a wepon. Some Russian blogger says 90 convicts abandoned own positiosn near Svatove and fled.

According to Mashovets, all last news about deserted convicts are about Army, not Wagners. In Army Russians establised some sort of "penalty battalions" of WWII times, but manned by convicts. They organized in companies with a name "Shorm-Z" and attached to assault units "Storm" as "first line meat attackers" 

Edited May 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Seminole]

9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

U.S. relations with south Africa are about to get a frosty.

Kinda funny to get mad at them for refusing to enforce a treaty we refuse to sign. 
 

From NPR:

MARTIN: I do want to point out that Russia also does not recognize the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, but the ICC has already opened investigations into possible war crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine. Can the U.S. help with these investigations, despite not being a member of the court itself?

BELLINGER: Well, it certainly can, and it should, in my view. There are some legal problems because when the court opened in 2002, Congress passed, on a bipartisan basis, a very draconian piece of legislation called the American Service Members Protection Act that strictly limits the U.S. ability to cooperate with the court, with some exceptions. So the Biden administration would have to work its way through these legal restrictions, which would, I think, ultimately allow some support to the court. 

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Seminole said:

Kinda funny to get mad at them for refusing to enforce a treaty we refuse to sign. 
 

From NPR:

MARTIN: I do want to point out that Russia also does not recognize the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, but the ICC has already opened investigations into possible war crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine. Can the U.S. help with these investigations, despite not being a member of the court itself?

BELLINGER: Well, it certainly can, and it should, in my view. There are some legal problems because when the court opened in 2002, Congress passed, on a bipartisan basis, a very draconian piece of legislation called the American Service Members Protection Act that strictly limits the U.S. ability to cooperate with the court, with some exceptions. So the Biden administration would have to work its way through these legal restrictions, which would, I think, ultimately allow some support to the court. 

South Africa just picked a side, the wrong one to be specific. The next time their currency wobbles, or similar, they will be lucky to get the junior assistant to the assistant jr. sub Secretary on the the phone.

Edited May 30, 2023 by dan/california

[Beleg85]

Seems like quite extensive read:

 

[sburke]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

South Africa just picked a side, the wrong one to be specific. The next time their currency wobbles, or similar, they will be lucky to get the junior assistant to the assistant jr. sub Secretary on the the phone.

nah, just get the phone guy to forward incoming calls from the SA gov't to the Russian MOD.  We phone techs are ever so helpful.

Edited May 30, 2023 by sburke

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Interesting that UKR military officials never say about losses after the any strike. And suddenly - "airfield damage, fuel depot in fire, 5 aircraft were taken out". Even some Russian milbloggers wrote own doubts - maybe this is just PsyOps, because weren't any videos even distant with huge smoke over Starikostintyniv airfield. 

PS. Reportedly for Storm Shadows were upgraded Su-24MR 

Thank you. Do we know how many are still operational? Last I heard it was about 20 functional with maybe 6 actually available at any one time/.

Actually, google is my friend:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/01/how-many-su-27-interceptors-does-ukraine-have-left/?sh=127650c4c298

Edited May 30, 2023 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

True, of course. We've seen one strike and we can't be sure about the intended target. So, currently, there is no air campaign at all, terror or otherwise. But if you use that to argue that my comparison is invalid - and that is certainly a legitimate point - then really so is your comparison with Kosovo... and really our little argument here is kind of moot.

Not really.  I see Ukraine trying to mimic the impact of the strikes on Serbia to the extent resources and physics allow, I do not see them trying to recreate a large scale terror campaign even if they had the resources to do so (they do not).

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

This is really the part where I can't honestly agree with. Again, we don't know what the intended target was and I don't claim it was civilians.

You are right, so far there is no terror bombing campaign and if we are only discussing the current situation than there is really no reason for me to make such a fuss about it.

It seems Ukraine mostly went after Russian leadership to send a message that they aren't untouchable.  The legality of such strikes is in a gray area, but there certainly is a sound argument to suggest that it is acceptable according to the Hague.  Here's an interesting discussion of the pros and cons from the US military in the early 1990s:

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA250267.pdf

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

But we are regularly discussing "what if"-scenarios and possible futures. And in such a discussion I am concerned about which direction this conflict might be heading - sorry for being such a foolish idealist. Of course Ukraine has the right to strike back! Ukraine would not, however, have the right to strike back at civilians, neither morally nor legally. The fact that Russia does it, too, wouldn't make it any more right and if we argue otherwise our precious rules based order is worth nothing. So the "if" in your "if it is not deliberately targeting civilians." is the crucial part. Of course Ukraine has to be presumed innocent until proven otherwise and from the current track record they deserve to be given the benefit of the doubt, anyway. So, I will leave it at that.

Sure, I don't condone Ukraine deliberately attacking civilians.  However, I see no evidence they have or that they have any interest in doing so.  Therefore, when I saw the news of the attacks my presumption was that Ukraine is operating within the legal and moral framework.  You, apparently, had a different initial reaction.

Steve

[Tux]

So many pages of bickering between people who seem to fundamentally agree with each other:

1. Russia’s continuous and deliberate assault upon Ukrainian civilians is a militarily counterproductive war crime.

2. If Ukraine deliberately targeted civilians with their recent attacks on Moscow (which we all think and hope they probably didn’t) that would also be a militarily counterproductive war crime.  That’s true regardless of how morally justified some may think it would be.

3. Very recently we’ve seen some evidence that the Ukrainian strikes may have been a careful message designed to puncture the Muscovite sense of invulnerability and widen any cracks that may exist between Russian socio-economic groups.  The drones may even have been deliberately unarmed or otherwise designed to ensure minimal risk of accidental civilian deaths.  All the better and a clever move, if so.

I agree that oil tanks, mobile phone networks, internet infrastructure and other visible/impactful targets might be more productive in the medium/long term, though. 

[kimbosbread]

14 minutes ago, Tux said:

All the better and a clever move,I agree that oil tanks, mobile phone networks, internet infrastructure and other visible/impactful targets might be more productive in the medium/long term, though. 

To quote our former president, think bigly-er. Take out essentials for happy living: Tires, tampons, vodka, potato decoration stores or whatever Russians like.

Imagine if middle class Muscovite women ran out of tampons.

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Imagine if middle class Muscovite women ran out of tampons.

didn't they already take those for the med kits?

[Fenris]

I think this was posted up thread but it's worth re-iterating.  If this was, I think it probably was, a psyop then it's done it's job.  I don't really think it was an inside job as per the second tweet but having Prig yelling at the management, publicly adds to  the increasing internal tension.

and

 

Edited May 30, 2023 by Fenris

[DesertFox]

Don Don Satire...Goats beware...

 

 

[FancyCat]

33 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Don Don Satire...Goats beware...

 

 

Probably not a "order" anyone intends to follow, but how good would it be for Ukraine if the domestic concern of punishing Ukraine and looking strong to Russians caused another offensive? Oh sure, Russian offensive power is nothing, but bad decision making abounds. Hell, I wonder if Ukraine might not be keen to push these Russian rebels further into Russia, if only to provoke a easy target for Russia to launch a offensive and win.

[Peregrine]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

Imagine if middle class Muscovite women ran out of tampons.

There would be blood in the streets?

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

There would be blood in the streets?

Dude, you almost owed me a monitor

[sburke]

Russia and Saudi Arabia are at odds after a flood of Russian oil supply pushed the commodity's price below a key break-even level needed to fund Saudi projects (yahoo.com)

Russia's pumping of cheap oil into the market is helping put downward pressure on prices for the commodity, and Saudi Arabia isn't happy as oil prices stay below a key break-even level, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal.

The report found that Saudi Arabia's efforts to curtail production and push oil prices higher earlier this year have been undermined by Moscow's flood of cheap oil supply, and that the oil-rich nation has expressed its anger at Russia for not following through on its pledge to throttle production, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter.

"Saudi officials have complained to senior Russian officials and asked them to respect the agreed cuts," the report said.

[paxromana]

41 minutes ago, sburke said:

"Saudi officials have complained to senior Russian officials and asked them to respect the agreed cuts," the report said.

Does anyone in the world give a rat's **** for the 'poor' Saudis?

I mean, Crimea a River ...

[dan/california]

 

 

56 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russia and Saudi Arabia are at odds after a flood of Russian oil supply pushed the commodity's price below a key break-even level needed to fund Saudi projects (yahoo.com)

Russia's pumping of cheap oil into the market is helping put downward pressure on prices for the commodity, and Saudi Arabia isn't happy as oil prices stay below a key break-even level, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal.

The report found that Saudi Arabia's efforts to curtail production and push oil prices higher earlier this year have been undermined by Moscow's flood of cheap oil supply, and that the oil-rich nation has expressed its anger at Russia for not following through on its pledge to throttle production, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter.

"Saudi officials have complained to senior Russian officials and asked them to respect the agreed cuts," the report said.

Quote

 

https://www.statista.com/outlook/mmo/electric-vehicles/united-states#unit-sales

 

One the larger positives happening world wide is that the electric cars are being subsidized/encouraged/more or less mandated in the U.S., China, and the E.U.. Sales are forecast to exceed ten percent of U.S. car sales by ~2026, perhaps sooner. Over the next decade this is going to have a real effect on oil consumption in the more or less developed world. At some point this is going to weigh on oil prices rather heavily. That unhappy conversation between the Russians and the Saudis is just going to get less pleasant every year.

I realize ten percent of sales is not the same as ten percent of the cars of the road, but it does add up over time. And the oil price is very sensitive to the last few million barrels per day of marginal demand and supply.

[Kinophile]

 

 

Edited May 31, 2023 by Kinophile

[dan/california]

 

[dan/california]

 

[MikeyD]

In Russia in 1950 there were 77 men for every 100 women, the greatest gender disparity of any nation involved in WWII. Russia has a special knack for killing off its male population.

[chrisl]

5 hours ago, womble said:

Russia's messaging appears to be a bit all over the place, on the drones:

 

It'd be so sweet of the Western Powers chose to take this admission of guilt as a chance to name Russia at least a State Sponsor of Terrorism. S'pose they'd have to do the same to Ukraine too, though, in that case.

I think the actor (whoever this is) missed a trick though. If the warheads were disarmed or removed, they could have been replaced with leaflets. Or blue and yellow smoke. Or a mix of both.

 

Or spelled out “Surrender, Dorothy!”

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Or spelled out “Surrender, Dorothy!”

@billbindc can testify to that graffiti appearing on a specific bridge on the capitol beltway.

Edited May 31, 2023 by sburke