How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

Another report on this story: 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-deputy-minister-dies-suddenly-131412559.html

Kucherenko’s untimely demise is one of many unexpected, high-profile deaths across Russia since the invasion started last year.

While accurate, you have to wonder how the words untimely demise got passed the editor. Definitely an old school way of putting things. 

[FancyCat]

 

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Question for anybody, but especially Haiduk... how sure are we that the RDK/LSR are ethnic Russians?  Some, including Girkin, think it is Kraken as they have not been out promoting their exploits recently.  They were on the forefront of the Kharkiv counter offensive last year, so it wouldn't be surprising to have them lead an attack into Russia.

Steve

I havn't lists of these Russian units, but it's no Kraken obviously. RDK/LSR arn't virtual units, they really were involved, for example, in Bakhmut defense. Yesterday I posted a video with captured BTR-82, filmed by Ilya Bogdanov, former border guard, who defected to Ukraine and fought since 2014 in Right Sector. Here is another video, where Russian opposition account recognized in one of fighters Russian actor Kiril Kanakhin, who left Russia in 2018, when a criminal case was initiated against him for participation in protests.

Of course, in these units can be enlisted some part of Ukrainian citizens for "just in case". But this is the same mirrored game "prove that this our trops"

About Kraken, their last posts in FB show the unit delivers humanitarian aid to inhabitants of Kharkiv oblast, receives the cars, drones and other supply from donators, single combat footage which was posted in late April is Kraken's artillery work on Soledar direction for February/March.

Edited May 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

 

 

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It comes down to whether Putin thinks MoD and security forces can squash the raids quickly enough.  If the answer is yes, it is unlikely forces will be moved from within Ukraine.  If the answer is no, then VDV and other units will be moved from wherever to Belgorod.

I don't see this raid lasting very long.  However, these guys sure did study 2014 very thoroughly before they went in:

I'm not sure how concerned Putin is about his flimsy excuses for invading Ukraine being used against the Russian Federation, but at the very least he has to be burning with rage over being shown up in such a way.  It is like a conman finding someone performing the same con, except by comedians who relish irony.

Here's what ISW has to say about the incursion:

Let's take a step back and look at the big picture:

1. Ukraine can say it's not involved, but we all know that's as untrue as Russia's claims in 2014.
2. The size of the RDK/LSR force is too small to stay in Russia for too long.  Russia has enough forces in the immediate area and in FSB reserve to handle them relatively quickly.  Couple of days maximum before they withdraw, a week if Russian forces are even less capable than I think they are.  For all we know it might already be over.
3. I doubt Ukraine or RDK/LSR can expand in any way that will have an impact on Russian terror attacks on Kyiv.
4. I doubt the RDK/LSR forces believe they really can overthrow Russian authority in the region.  For that there would have to be the equivalent of what Russia orchestrated in Ukraine in 2014, which took years and massive effort to achieve.
5. The RDK/LSR are unlikely to have any notable allies within Russia, which means a sympathetic response by another group at any notable level is highly unlikely.
6. Domestically Putin has a problem, but that problem is not distinctly linked to this one event.  This is just another straw on the already weak back of Putin's camel.  When the back is broken there won't be any single straw that caused it.  Which is to say that this event is survivable for Putin as long as a powerful group doesn't decide this is their moment to act.

What do we think the goals of this incursion are?  Here's what I see in no particular order:

1. Show the Russian people how inept and ill prepared Putin's regime is at defending its borders.
2. Give power blocs within Russia more reasons to make contingency plans and/or fight amongst themselves.
3. Humiliate Russia by using the same 2014 tactics as they used on Ukraine.
4. Cause significant distraction within the Russian chain of command at a critical time.
5. Rattle Russian confidence ahead of the counter offensive even more than it already is.
6. Rob Russia of it's ability to leverage Bakhmut "victory" propaganda.
7. Take out key EW/AD systems that Russia will find very difficult to replace.
8. Draw resources away from the frontlines in Ukraine to shore up the Russian border.

I think they have achieved 1-7 already with #8 unknown to us at this point.

Sometimes the appetizers for a great meal can sometimes be as awesome as the main course.  This might be the case here!

Steve

1+2+3+4+5+6+7 = 8.  

This raid has the hallmarks of strategic shaping, but shaping takes time and effort.  Uncertainty has been projected upon Russia, how much and how intensely remains a question.  Russian intelligence likely has been aware of this troublesome border region for a long time, people do not suddenly decide to become disenfranchised.  But this was an overt attack in broad daylight that is going to create pressures, most of them negative - this raid just undecided the integrity of Russian Ukrainian border, that alone is going to induce a response even if it is below the waterline.

War is communication and Ukraine just signalled that it is willing to support back door resistance within Russia, and it was very likely backed, at least indirectly, by western powers - does anyone think we did not know this was in motion?  Communication, once received and processed, shapes perception. Perception drives action/reaction.  War is also certainty, so communication and certainty are in constant tension with perception in between.

And Russia has a lot of back doors.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

12 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

The best part is, since they aren't officially part of the MoD, hunting them isn't technically an act of war against the Russian government!

I am sorry to spoil the almost perfect argument, but attacking a country's citizens who are not currently serving in its armed forces is also a casus belli....

[Maciej Zwolinski]

17 hours ago, sross112 said:

My thoughts about them holing up in the bunkers is that they are afraid of the bomber drones.

Probably this. If the drones are the cause, then this is a very important observation. In trench warfare there is the phenomenon of "race to the parapet", i.e. the attacker tries to suppress the defender with artillery, but the barrage has to lift some time, and then whoever is first at the parapet of the trench either bombs the defender emerging from his dugouts with grenades, or shoots the attackers in the open. If the defender can be driven away from the trenches and into shelters by drones, the race is unwinnable for him. As opposed to artillery barrage, the drones can stop lobbing grenades into the trench when the attackers are just a few metres from it. And there is no need to spend thousands of artillery shells to achieve this!

[Maciej Zwolinski]

4 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

The quote about mortar ammunition provides an interesting new angle to the discussion why the Ukrainians decided against retreating from Bakhmut and whether it was worth it. Perhaps it was not about attrition of personnel and achieving a favourable casualty ratio as much as about making RUS burn through ammunition before the offensive. The ammo expenditure ratios must have been been much bigger among RUS. According to the reports from the last stage of the siege, they reverted to house by house demolition by artillery and glide bombs, using up ammunition without any constraints.

BTW, the Ukrainians are reporting crazy numbers of destroyed RUS artillery. Yesterday it was 40/day or something similar. It used to be 1/10th of that number earlier in this war. Any ideas what happened and if those figures are  at all reliable?

 

[Beleg85]

9 hours ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Perhaps the pressure of the continuous raids will push him adopt a "brilliant idea" that he believes can simultaneously alleviate political pressure and meet military needs in further south, that is another round of mobilization (good luck with that).

It is worth to remember that "silent mobilization" is actively ongoing all the time in Russia from late fall last year. I heard very different estimates as to numbers of mobiks raised that way, and none seem very credbile tbf. Threshold of 20-30k a month doesn't seem out of reality. Plus they have their annual conscription, a factor we usually omitt in our discussions, which is eligible to stay on Russian terriotory (btw. in theory that now involves Kherson...Muscovia and its imperialistic schizophrenia).

Thus they could theoretically plunge the border with them while continuing training- but of course that brings danger of fires unleashed on them from Ukrainian territory.

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Of course, in these units can be enlisted some part of Ukrainian citizens for "just in case". But this is the same mirrored game "prove that this our trops"

This interviewed volunteer I mentioned claimed that there are many ethnic Ukrainians who lived in Russia in this unit, who after going back to fight for native country via Western Europe/Turkey had problems with admission to AFU due to possible conflict of loyalties and formally having Russian citizenship. So they preferred sticking to Russian units, which is anyway tightly controlled by UA services and often separated from other international volunteers, especially RVC.

 

It seems Free Russians still hold several villages this afternoon and there are some gossips they have reinforcements from Shop With Reinforcements (could be psyops). What a humiliation for Kremlin.

 

Edited May 23, 2023 by Beleg85

[Huba]

It looks like the freedom fighters of Bilhorod Peoples Republic are continuing their offensive and liberating more and more settlements from the Muscovite yoke. If they manage to connect their positions, the newly created frontline will be almost 40km long. 
Seriously though, it seems that this hilariousness will continue until Russians bring in some meaningful forces.

Edited May 23, 2023 by Huba

[Huba]

It took a week from Britain's "we will start training UA pilots on trainer aircraft in the summer" to "UA pilots are already flying F-16s in Poland".  There will be zero surprise on my end if it turns out that UA pilots are so talented that they manage to finish their training in a month or two from now, just in time to participate in offensive against the Russian land bridge.

 

Edited May 23, 2023 by Huba

[Ts4EVER]

36 minutes ago, Huba said:

It looks like the freedom fighters of Bilhorod Peoples Republic are continuing their offensive and liberating more and more settlements from the Muscovite yoke. If they manage to connect their positions, the newly created frontline will be almost 40km long. 
Seriously though, it seems that this hilariousness will continue until Russians bring in some meaningful forces.

That kind of seems like an exposed position though, surely they don't have enough forces to hold this kind of territory?

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Ts4EVER said:

That kind of seems like an exposed position though, surely they don't have enough forces to hold this kind of territory?

Unless they start handing out passports of the Bilhorod Peoples Republic to the Ukrainians  

But seriously, I think we all agree that this is only a diversion and UA won't be reinforcing it too much. Russia has to counter It though, and it looks like local militia won't be enough for that, they will need some mobile mechanised force to stop the incursions. Or a buttload of mobik infantry. Both of which seem to be in rather short supply, at least in the immediate vicinity of Bilhorod.

[chrisl]

47 minutes ago, Huba said:

It took a week from Britain's "we will start training UA pilots on trainer aircraft in the summer" to "UA pilots are already flying F-16s in Poland".  There will be zero surprise on my end if it turns out that UA pilots are so talented that they manage to finish their training in a month or two from now, just in time to participate in offensive against the Russian land bridge.

 

It would also be no surprise to me if UA pilots had started training months ago and it was only announced because some indication got out that it was happening.

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I havn't lists of these Russian units, but it's no Kraken obviously. RDK/LSR arn't virtual units, they really were involved, for example, in Bakhmut defense. Yesterday I posted a video with captured BTR-82, filmed by Ilya Bogdanov, former border guard, who defected to Ukraine and fought since 2014 in Right Sector. Here is another video, where Russian opposition account recognized in one of fighters Russian actor Kiril Kanakhin, who left Russia in 2018, when a criminal case was initiated against him for participation in protests.

Of course, in these units can be enlisted some part of Ukrainian citizens for "just in case". But this is the same mirrored game "prove that this our trops"

About Kraken, their last posts in FB show the unit delivers humanitarian aid to inhabitants of Kharkiv oblast, receives the cars, drones and other supply from donators, single combat footage which was posted in late April is Kraken's artillery work on Soledar direction for February/March.

Thanks!  OK, so it is as I thought.  For sure the unit exists and is separate from other units, though it is likely fairly small (100s and not 1000s).  If it has been enlarged, then it likely was enlarged with Ukrainians.  Which is fine, because Putin obviously thinks this is how insurrections work

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

41 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

That kind of seems like an exposed position though, surely they don't have enough forces to hold this kind of territory?

I think they are only trying to provoke the Russians enough to make them redeploy substantial forces to deal with the problem, and then Ukraine will launch its offensive in the south. Even if the Russians rush back south to counter it, it takes time to move troops and equipment.

[Seminole]

42 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

That kind of seems like an exposed position though, surely they don't have enough forces to hold this kind of territory?

Trying to hold anything there, at this point, would be counterproductive.

Much better to stay moving, raising hell, and forcing the Russians to commit more resources (military and political) to actually tie them down or evict them.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Probably this. If the drones are the cause, then this is a very important observation. In trench warfare there is the phenomenon of "race to the parapet", i.e. the attacker tries to suppress the defender with artillery, but the barrage has to lift some time, and then whoever is first at the parapet of the trench either bombs the defender emerging from his dugouts with grenades, or shoots the attackers in the open. If the defender can be driven away from the trenches and into shelters by drones, the race is unwinnable for him. As opposed to artillery barrage, the drones can stop lobbing grenades into the trench when the attackers are just a few metres from it. And there is no need to spend thousands of artillery shells to achieve this!

Let's also not forget that all forms artillery "announce themselves".  Experienced soldiers know when a round is incoming and if they need to duck.  They also know when it is time to get under better cover.

PGMs have already distorted this a little bit because with dumb artillery the chances of the first round hitting you specifically is quite low.  Especially if you keep your head down below the top of the trench.  But with a PGM you have to consider the possibility that it is being directed into the trench and specifically at you.  Which means when you hear there is a shell incoming there's a lot more reason to seek better cover immediately.

Drones, of course, give no warning until they are right in the immediate area.  If there is any background noise, including a significant wind, and the drone operator knows what he is doing, the chances of hearing it are minimal.  And even if you hear a drone it is difficult to know if it is friend or foe or where it is.  You also have no idea if it is armed or not.  Once a drone attack has happened you don't know if the drone has a second bomb or if there is a second armed drone, either already there or on its way.

Life without drone defenses has got to be exceptionally miserable.

Steve

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, chrisl said:

It would also be no surprise to me if UA pilots had started training months ago and it was only announced because some indication got out that it was happening.

Yup, that's what I was hinting at. There were so many little leaks and rumours about it during past year that it is hard no to treat the developments from last week as some kind of a theatre. What's interesting is that there were also explicit mentions of not only F-16s, but also "other aircraft" that Ukrainians are training for. Mirage 2000 seem like an obvious choice, but I still keep my fingers crossed for these Tranche1 Eurofighters from the UK. There are interesting times ahead of us.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

Yup, that's what I was hinting at. There were so many little leaks and rumours about it during past year that it is hard no to treat the developments from last week as some kind of a theatre. What's interesting is that there were also explicit mentions of not only F-16s, but also "other aircraft" that Ukrainians are training for. Mirage 2000 seem like an obvious choice, but I still keep my fingers crossed for these Tranche1 Eurofighters from the UK. There are interesting times ahead of us.

The two? Ukrainian pilots that went to the US (Texas) to train, and apparently test the concept, are most definitely ready to engage in operations or act as trainers for other pilots.

This is showing itself to be similar to HARM and Storm Shadow.  By the time the weaponry was announced it was already largely ready for action because months of work had been done ahead of time outside of the public eye.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, Seminole said:

Trying to hold anything there, at this point, would be counterproductive.

Much better to stay moving, raising hell, and forcing the Russians to commit more resources (military and political) to actually tie them down or evict them.

Exactly.  A HUGE amount of PR damage can be done by announcing "liberated" towns even if, in reality, they move on right after taking selfies next to landmarks.

Some estimates of the initial incursion were under 200.  I don't think that can be ruled out.  So even if they doubled their size that is still a tiny force to occupy even one or two settlements against a determined counter attack, but it is an excellent sized force to run around "liberating" towns.

Contrast the preparedness of the Russian border area with that of Ukraine February 2022.  The Russians went in with 10s of thousands of heavily armed forces and the Ukrainians cut them to pieces almost as soon as they came over the border.  Russia?  I wouldn't be surprised if these guys could drive all the way to Moscow.

Basically, the assumptions Russia made about Ukrainians not defending their territory in 2022 were false, but the assumptions made about the Russians defending their own land seems to be spot on

I will say this... Russia's continues to surprise even me with how incompetent they are.  This is not the first border incursion, and yet there appears to be NO plan to deal with what Ukraine is doing to them now.  None.  Either that or they did have s solid plan in place, but like so many other things Russian, it completely collapsed the first time it was needed.

Steve

[Beleg85]

11 hours ago, Seminole said:

Dovetails interestingly with this news I saw earlier today:

A Belarusian opposition activist arrested after his Ryanair flight was forced to land in the capital Minsk has said he has been pardoned.

Roman Protasevich was hauled off his flight and arrested on charges of inciting unrest in May 2021.

Just to reitorate on topic- Protasevich, one of founders of Nexta, was broken by Lukashenka many months ago, so his pardon now is just formality with little international value, sending signall to opposition they can "go back" if repent and support regime. His girlfirend, Sofia Sapega was in turn much more heavily persecuted by Belarussian KGB, barely able to see family and lawyers and now is to be extradited to Russia as citizen of this country, under charge of treason.

Gives you glimps of methods bulbernfuhrer uses to keep people in check and break their spines.

Btw. this act of de facto air piracy from 2021, as well as Lukashenka still sending waves of emigrants on Polish and Lithuanian borders, are almost certainly insipired and coordinated by Russian FSB/GRU as part of larger hybrid warfare effort. Belarussian regime was not bold enough by themselves to provoke such scandals.

[dan/california]

12 hours ago, Seminole said:

Dovetails interestingly with this news I saw earlier today:

 

A Belarusian opposition activist arrested after his Ryanair flight was forced to land in the capital Minsk has said he has been pardoned.

Roman Protasevich was hauled off his flight and arrested on charges of inciting unrest in May 2021.

Earlier this month, he was sentenced to eight years in prison.

He thanked authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko for the pardon, amid questions as to whether he was forced to make pro-regime statements.

 

In a video released by state news agency Belta, Mr Protasevich said he had just signed "appropriate documents" for his pardon.

 

 

36 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Just to reitorate on topic- Protasevich, one of founders of Nexta, was broken by Lukashenka many months ago, so his pardon now is just formality with little international value, sending signall to opposition they can "go back" if repent and support regime. His girlfirend, Sofia Sapega was in turn much more heavily persecuted by Belarussian KGB, barely able to see family and lawyers and now is to be extradited to Russia as citizen of this country, under charge of treason.

Gives you glimps of methods bulbernfuhrer uses to keep people in check and break their spines.

Btw. this act of de facto air piracy from 2021, as well as Lukashenka still sending waves of emigrants on Polish and Lithuanian borders, are almost certainly insipired and coordinated by Russian FSB/GRU as part of larger hybrid warfare effort. Belarussian regime was not bold enough by themselves to provoke such scandals.

Actual Justice for the upper layers of the Russian and Belarusian governments would involve a lot of hangings.

[Harmon Rabb]

Zelensky informed about the creation of the Marine Corps in Ukraine (babel.ua)

Interesting, but I have to correct the author of the article a little. The USMC is its own service branch and not part of the U.S. Army.

Edited May 23, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Splinty]

11 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Zelensky informed about the creation of the Marine Corps in Ukraine (babel.ua)

Interesting, but I have to correct the author of the article a little. The USMC is its own service branch and not part of the U.S. Army.

Actually the US Marines are technically part of the US Navy, but generally are treated as their own branch.