How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Offshoot]

27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not having listened to the reasoning, I have to scratch my head on this one.  For sure Putin has never truly had a monopoly on violence within Russia any more than the head of a regional organized crime syndicate does.  There's still unauthorized violence that is the result of delegated authority and competing interests.  That said, the goons acting on their own know there are lines that they shouldn't cross and that there will be consequences if they do unless they have influence proportional to the transgression.  Even Mogilevich, considered the most powerful crime boss in the world, knows that if push comes to shove he'll lose.  So, in that sense Putin is absolutely at the top.

For context, the statement about having a monopoly on violence in the video I linked pertains to a comment by a Communist Party member of the Duma who had a spat with Prigozhin: "[The state] must possess an absolute monopoly over the formation, development and use of military force. There can be no private military companies."

So I think "violence" in this case applies primarily to warfare and not to off-book assassinations or general state thuggery.
By having Wagner fight in Ukraine, at least the illusion of a state monopoly is broken.

[Battlefront.com]

Report of another big explosion in Belgorod at least 6 hours ago:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13nc6sd/belgorod_region_cotton/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

For context, the statement about having a monopoly on violence in the video I linked pertains to a comment by a Communist Party member of the Duma who had a spat with Prigozhin: "[The state] must possess an absolute monopoly over the formation, development and use of military force. There can be no private military companies."

So I think "violence" in this case applies primarily to warfare and not to off-book assassinations or general state thuggery.
By having Wagner fight in Ukraine, at least the illusion of a state monopoly is broken.

Depends on perspective.  PMCs were always an extension of Russian government policy and therefore under its control this whole time.  Can't break an illusion if it was never there

Steve

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Literally the only exceptions of any note to Putin’s monopoly on violence have been the Dugin assassination, the drone attack on the Kremlin and the Ukrainian attacks in Belgogrod, etc. In other words, acts of war not breakdowns in civil control.

However Putin has had to kill as many as several dozen prominent people to maintain his hold. Falling out a window has become an euphemism for an extra judicial execution for a reason. Like so many others powers and prerogatives, they work far better when you don't have to use them too often, or too publicly. There may be a limit to the extent Putin can pull back the curtain on the way things actually work, he won't enjoy finding out he has exceeded it.

[chuckdyke]

12 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Speaking of China, Here is how Zelensky made it to Japan from the KSA.

Did not know Zelensky was travelling on a French Air Force plane, or as I should now say French Air and Space Force.

You know what the Chinese say? If you are not at the table it means you are on the menu.

[JonS]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

a flair up

 

 

Edited May 21, 2023 by JonS

[JonS]

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

It is a big internet there are all sorts of sites that will appeal to where you are coming from - good ol folksie wisdom and hard workin practical experience that “tells it like it is” in simple easily digestible one liners that will make you feel all sorts of clever. They distill the complexity of human conflict to 140 characters and offer easy answers to this scary complex old world.  You can learn all about “Elitist this and globalist that” and will no doubt hear all sorts of down home simple solutions that are so obvious.

One of my more favoured aphorisms is "for every complex problem there is a solution that is simple, obvious, and wrong."

Words to remember, words to live by. It's a complex old world out there, and dumbing it down doesn't help anyone.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

One of my more favoured aphorisms is "for every complex problem there is a solution that is simple, obvious, and wrong."

Words to remember, words to live by. It's a complex old world out there, and dumbing it down doesn't help anyone.

It is uncertainty, which is toxic to humans.  We mostly do one of two things with uncertainty, we push out and explore to remove it, or we pretend it does not exist.  

We were never apex predators in nature, middle of the food chain in reality.  However we had a big enough brain to be aware of where we sat in the food chain which created fear.  We then leveraged that to survive and evolve.  The fuel for a lot of our fear is uncertainty, the unknowns because in nature those unknowns could easily kill us for food.

So we will work very hard to remove uncertainty, it is a primary impulse.  To over simplify and dumb thins down, particularly when faced with highly complex unknowns is a very old human strategy.  One of the first things we did was to try and use substances to cope - alcohol, narcotics etc.  Than when we constructed faith and religion.  And now we have whatever the hell this era has produced with echo chambers and ideologies that embrace obtuse and willful ignorance as dogma.  Better to embrace safe lies and face unknowable truths.  And to be fair there is also a caloric strategy at play here as well. Brain chews up a lot of calories so in one embraces dogma one can stop burning calories on worrying about unknowns.

Certainty and uncertainty are also central to warfare.  I describe all warfare as a violent collision of human certainties.  It creates enormous uncertainty as social structures are fractured.  Uncertainty is a weapon in itself and can be projected onto an opponent.  We have been wrestling with uncertainty since 23 Feb 22.  We have all created mental frameworks that aid us in reasserting certainty - I know I definitely have.  This is not a bad thing so long as those frameworks remain on speaking terms with reality and the facts on the ground.  If the space between my mental certainty framework and reality becomes too wide, I am in an unreality space and that is when decisions get really shaky.

Now for any 8th graders out there.  We are afraid of the dark because we can imagine all the bad within it.  So we can either build flashlights or cover our heads and pretend it is daytime until the sun does come up.

[womble]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

We were never apex predators in nature, middle of the food chain in reality.  However we had a big enough brain to be aware of where we sat in the food chain which created fear.  We then leveraged that to survive and evolve.  The fuel for a lot of our fear is uncertainty, the unknowns because in nature those unknowns could easily kill us for food.

We were also social, and invented revenge as a survival tactic: if a predator kills one of your troop, you get the troop together and kill all the predators of that type anywhere near you that hang around/fall into your traps. Then we applied it to other troops of humans...

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

If the space between my mental certainty framework and reality becomes too wide, I am in an unreality space and that is when decisions get really shaky.

And that is apparently where Putin sits in his Master Strategist chair... 

[Bulletpoint]

18 hours ago, akd said:

3rd Assault Brigade attacking up a forested gully outside Bakhmut:

https://twitter.com/INTobservers/status/1659584773910667264?s=20

Is this one of the alleged neo nazi units? If no, then why are they using Nazi symbolism?

I know the Wolfsangel was also used in medieval heraldry, but today, it's strongly associated with the SS. Ukraine could do better than this.

[billbindc]

6 hours ago, dan/california said:

However Putin has had to kill as many as several dozen prominent people to maintain his hold. Falling out a window has become an euphemism for an extra judicial execution for a reason. Like so many others powers and prerogatives, they work far better when you don't have to use them too often, or too publicly. There may be a limit to the extent Putin can pull back the curtain on the way things actually work, he won't enjoy finding out he has exceeded it.

I'm not too sure Stalin would agree with the thesis that Russian authoritarian states suffer much from stretching the limits of the monopoly of violence to maintain domestic control.

[JM Stuff]

31 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Is this one of the alleged neo nazi units? If no, then why are they using Nazi symbolism?

I know the Wolfsangel was also used in medieval heraldry, but today, it's strongly associated with the SS. Ukraine could do better than this.

just a good opportunity to fuel Putin's propaganda !

[billbindc]

The F-16 is not a panacea thread: 

 

 

Edited May 21, 2023 by billbindc

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

Is this one of the alleged neo nazi units? If no, then why are they using Nazi symbolism?

I know the Wolfsangel was also used in medieval heraldry, but today, it's strongly associated with the SS. Ukraine could do better than this.

This is not wolfshungel (it looks similar, but original symbol has otehr direction), this is nomogram I.N.  - Idea of Nation - which appeared in environment of young nationalists in early 90th, which later founded Social-National Party of Ukraine (SNPU). Author of symbol and its sense filling was Nestor Proniuk, PR-comissioner of SNPU. Gradually political platform of this party had been drifting from radical far-right to national-social-conservatism and since 2004 SNPU was transformed to party "Svoboda" (leader Oleh Tiahnybok). "Idea of Nation" symbol remained in use only among some marginal far-right movements, which formed a core of first "Azov" volunteer battalion in 2014. First commander of Azov was Andriy Biletskyi, former member of SNPU, which struggled against "party liberalisation" line of Oleh Tiahnybok, but lost and left "Svoboda", founding new organization "Patriot of Ukraine" with HQ in Kharkiv - second with such name, because first one was a youth wing of SNPU and it was disbanded by Oleh Tiahnybok. So, when "Azov" was founded, "IN" symbol became a symbol of battalion. And later because of good results and bright PR, "IN" became a "brand" of "Azov". Since 2019-20, when there was some criticism about "wolfshungel", this symbol was transformed to diagonal "IN", like three lines, striking from above. But old "IN" still in use to on some brigade's elements patches 

Edited May 21, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, JM Stuff said:

just a good opportunity to fuel Putin's propaganda !

In their eyes we "fascists" anyway and forever. So, we are not inetersting how much more horns they will paint to us. More they name us "fascists", more white crosses will apeear on our vehicles in German WW2 style, more other mocking-up things, which will set fire their ***...les. I see, it's hard to understand to enough rational westerners, but this war is not only war of weapon, ideiologies and lifestiles, this is also a war of emotions, hidden senses, and memes. I already wrote about this, that mockery and humulitation of enemy by laugh is an old feature of Ukrainian mentality, worked out in continuos wars and hard life on their frontier. 

[Beleg85]

36 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I see, it's hard to understand to enough rational westerners, but this war is not only war of weapon, ideiologies and lifestiles, this is also a war of emotions, hidden senses, and memes. I already wrote about this, that mockery and humulitation of enemy by laugh is an old feature of Ukrainian mentality, worked out in continuos wars and hard life on their frontier. 

Yes, we did discuss this, and as I udnerstand your position I think you wrong here mate- it's not issue of Russian feelings (who cares what they think) nor Ukrainians' traditions of "mockery" (if indeed it is mockery, and not hidden far-right activism like in case of Azov movement), but public opinion of the West at stake here. Which directly translates how much money, eqiupment, training and crucially political support you get from us. Remind you- Ukraine is basically crowdfunding its war at this stage.

If we tell you there is taboo on nationalism/nazism symbolic and ideas, it is for a reason- we are serious about it. Ukrainians are harming their own war effort and people that way. *

* I personally know a person who get very involved in helping UA initially, collecting thousands of zloty for drones, bandages, tactical vests etc for your guys....until it visited frontlines herself and was perplexed by amount of nazi/nationalistic s...t going there. She gave up on helping almost entirely, except limited humanitarian one. This equipment could save lives of your folks at frontlines, but no- jokes are more important... Btw. send regards to 28th Brigade and Odessa ultras.

Edited May 21, 2023 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

Result of yesterday strike with at least 2 Storm Shadows on Mariupol western outskirts (though locals said about four explosions)

This place was former UKR AD radar unit and had big bunker. Reportedly in this bunker could be large command center established, locals also write on this site periodically Russian AD assets concentrated. On day before Russian media shared a video how Shoigu visited some comamnd center in Zaporizhzhia oblast. It's unclear could he visit this center near Mariupol or other, but the bunker was hit and results now can be seen on the map:

  Before: 

Now (huge crater on presumably bunker place)

Damaged "Tigr", which was evacuated, was spotted yesterday in Mariuapol, probably from that site

City mayor advisor Petro Andriushchenko (UKR) told 24 occupant were killed during the strike and 37 wounded. Of course, it's can't be verified. Maybe most important victims appeared soon at Necromancer account.

Edited May 21, 2023 by Haiduk

[chris talpas]

Latest Perun video.  Fits in nicely with the recent thread discussion on anti satellite weapons.

 

[JM Stuff]

To me this is really understanding and I approve your point of view !
The world look us and not only Putin and Putin friends, I think this is a bad picture that we present to the rest of europe and to the rest of the world, do we need absolutly to present us in this way, when we give millions milliards to keep a good fight but also for pretended good things, that the citizens recieve only a drop of this lake, in the world we dont really reconize who is who both blocs have a agressive attitude and dont let any places more to feelings.

This is the reallity that would had to open ours eyes in the past the first time when Putin was entering in Georgia who "almost nobody" was really taking attention to this far away country from europa, couple of years later, repeting a similar action in Crimea, also with stupefaction but not really actions... now europe is awake and try to close the eyes again, and imagine is only a dream, but a dream with heavy concequences when the eyes are open again.

[womble]

7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yes, we did discuss this, and as I udnerstand your position I think you wrong here mate- it's not issue of Russian feelings (who cares what they think) nor Ukrainians' traditions of "mockery" (if indeed it is mockery, and not hidden far-right activism like in case of Azov movement), but public opinion of the West at stake here. Which directly translates how much money, eqiupment, training and crucially political support you get from us. Remind you- Ukraine is basically crowdfunding its war at this stage.

This is very true. The presence, or even suggestion, of neo-Nazis in the ranks, and accepted there, allowed the Russians to poison Western opinion against intervention back in '14. It matters not whether "Azov"s philosophy was widespread, its existence opened the door to some sort of credibility for aninterventionists finger-pointing.

Maybe your national psyche needs, or at least finds it helpful in morale terms, to mock the enemy, but there are other ways which don't hand the Russian-apologists out here beyond the hot borders of the conflict easy ammo to shoot you in the foot with.

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

2 Storm Shadows on Mariupol western outskirts (though locals said about four explosions)

Storm Shadow has a tandem warhead. Don't know whether a human listener would be able to distinguish the shaped charge detonation from the bursting charge, though.

[Kraft]

please deleate

Edited May 21, 2023 by Kraft

[Haiduk]

40 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

If we tell you there is taboo on nationalism/nazism symbolic and ideas, it is for a reason- we are serious about it. Ukrainians are harming their own war effort and people that way. *

* I personally know a person who get very involved in helping UA initially, collecting thousands of zloty for drones, bandages, tactical vests etc for your guys....until it visited frontlines herself and was perplexed by amount of nazi/nationalistic s...t going there. She gave up on helping, except limited humanitarian one.

National idea is that, which makes fighters moral high and gives more understanding for what they fight. As you can see, more tough units, are those, which have some ideology in own circle. We fihgt not for abstract "bright future", not for "EU membership" and even not for "western liberal values". We fight for own survival first of all. Like a state and like nation. All other - membership, values, "shield of Europe" maybe also important too, but secondary. So, either somebody want this or not, in this war of senses we will use our senses and symbols, which will inspire and which will cause propagandists madness of our enemies. I think, 1,5 years was enough to see who is who and who is real nazi. 

Edited May 21, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, womble said:

This is very true. The presence, or even suggestion, of neo-Nazis in the ranks, and accepted there, allowed the Russians to poison Western opinion against intervention back in '14. It matters not whether "Azov"s philosophy was widespread, its existence opened the door to some sort of credibility for aninterventionists finger-pointing.

Maybe your national psyche needs, or at least finds it helpful in morale terms, to mock the enemy, but there are other ways which don't hand the Russian-apologists out here beyond the hot borders of the conflict easy ammo to shoot you in the foot with.

Yes.  We've had this discussion before and to me it is akin to all the people in the US that use the Confederate flag as a symbol for "freedom", when in fact it is a symbol of traitors who waged a war in order to continue an economy based on slavery.  As a result several hundred thousand Americans were killed (friend and foe) and the traitors lost the war, but continued it's racial subjugation for generations right up to the present day.  Including watering down or banning the truth from being taught in schools.

So yeah... symbol of "freedom" to some, symbol of hate, murder, rape, torture, enslavement, and overall brutality to many others.  The United States is still grappling with this, with active resistance coming from the same rotten place in the Human Soul that produced the Confederacy in the first place.

Because I do not like to be a hypocrite, I look at Ukraine's unhealthy attraction to and (at a minimum) embrace of Fascist symbology with concern and disapproval.  But I am not so naive to think it isn't a massive social problem within my own country.  Despite its major flaws, I love and support my country and I do my part to try and make it better.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, womble said:

Storm Shadow has a tandem warhead. Don't know whether a human listener would be able to distinguish the shaped charge detonation from the bursting charge, though.

The time delay between initial impact and deep penetration detonation *might* be enough for the ear to hear two separate explosions.  They would also have different sound profiles which would increase the chances of being perceived as distinct from each other.

In any case, it's pretty clear that Ukraine found a nice target for its new Shadow Storm bunker buster

Steve

[Haiduk]

42 minutes ago, womble said:

allowed the Russians to poison Western opinion

Sometime I watch western twiterrs, so as most of people usually take firmly position of one of sides and very rarely their opinion can be changed. Those who support Ukraine (or just consider Russia like existential opponent and have position "enemy of my enemy is my ally") will support despite some things, which modern left-liberal ideology tought them to consider as "prohibited" (I'm not so much about symbols, like about national-oriented ideology). Those, who consider that aid for Ukriane is wasting of money, or "there is no war in Ukriane, this is TV-fake", or "western friends of Russia, with brains poisoned recently by RT" - they still with own opinion too. So, on current stage Russian propaganda already hasn't this huge strenght, as it was before a war. 

Edited May 21, 2023 by Haiduk