How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[pintere]

6 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Not that I had any doubt, but now we have proof. Storm Shadow for the win!

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1657323371812601858?s=20

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1657020349479809025?s=20

 

RIP Russian logistics officers

[DesertFox]

Love the spirit! 

 

 

[Beleg85]

8 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Not that I had any doubt, but now we have proof. Storm Shadow for the win!

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1657323371812601858?s=20

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1657020349479809025?s=20

 

Russians just lost 3 aviation pieces within minutes, deep into own territory. Could be some special teams with manpads, but is not impossible Russian AA get crazy cause of new danger of Storm Shadow. Very interesting development.

Maybe some rague AI captured their systems.

[Huba]

Now there's also a Su-25 being mentioned, on top of the 2 MI-8 and Su-34.

Edit:
Rybar says that it was a Su-35, not Su-25, which makes it even worse. He suggests an ambush by AIM-120 equipped  UA fighters as the reason for this carnage (or saboteurs with MANPADS).

Edited May 13, 2023 by Huba

[DesertFox]

10 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Russians just lost 3 aviation pieces within minutes, deep into own territory. Could be some special teams with manpads, but is not impossible Russian AA get crazy cause of new danger of Storm Shadow. Very interesting development.

Maybe some rague AI captured their systems.

Perhaps 4 and the day isn´t over yet. Maybe someone hacked their IFF System. Who knows?

 

 

Edited May 13, 2023 by DesertFox

[Beleg85]

2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Perhaps 4 and the day isn´t over yet. Maybe someone hacked their IFF System. Who knows?

Isn't "triger" in these systems always pulled ultimatelly by human? They could feed them wrong tracking data (somehow), but there is officer at place.

Some connect it to these new MALD's and possibility of installing IFF spoofing devices.

[TheVulture]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Russians just lost 3 aviation pieces within minutes, deep into own territory. Could be some special teams with manpads, but is not impossible Russian AA get crazy cause of new danger of Storm Shadow. Very interesting development.

Maybe some rague AI captured their systems.

There was an Mi-8 (not sure I'm remembering correctly) that crashed in Crimea yesterday killing both crew.  As a one off,  not massively significant. And possibly a coincidence. But also possibly a shoot-down rather than a crash and part of an increased anti-air operation for the anticipated offensive.

 

EDIT Just checked and it was an Mi-28 - the one Haiduk has given more details on below.

Edited May 13, 2023 by TheVulture

[Haiduk]

23 minutes ago, Huba said:

He suggests an ambush by AIM-120 equipped  UA fighters as the reason for this carnage

I also have suspicious about AIM-120. Revenge for KAB strikes. 

Inetersesting, yesterday Russians lost Mi-28 near Dzhankoy. Crew lost. Initially was claimed about accident. Today already they say allegedly during trainig flight, group of UKR UAVs were spotted in Crimean airspace and because of S-300 prepared to engage them, missile warning was anounced for crews with order return to base immediately. But one helicopter wasted a time and was targeted by S-300 missile. It has broken on two parts after hit. So, either friendly fire, or... AIM-120 too?  

[Nastypastie]

Or the above pictured Sparrows. Or just firing off their reserve stocks of R-77 and the like now that they have alternative western supplies and seemingly the means to use them.

[Huba]

There is even more good news today -it  seems that the Swiss will finally lift ban on delivery of their weapons to Ukraine! It means ammunition for Gepards, but more importantly Aspide/ Spada/ SkyGuard SHORADs from Italy and Spain can finally be sent too. These are quite numerous and slated for replacement anyway - just a thing to announce during Zelensky's visit in Rome today  
https://de.euronews.com/2023/05/12/schweiz-waffenlieferungen

Edited May 13, 2023 by Huba

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I also have suspicious about AIM-120. Revenge for KAB strikes. 

Inetersesting, yesterday Russians lost Mi-28 near Dzhankoy. Crew lost. Initially was claimed about accident. Today already they say allegedly during trainig flight, group of UKR UAVs were spotted in Crimean airspace and because of S-300 prepared to engage them, missile warning was anounced for crews with order return to base immediately. But one helicopter wasted a time and was targeted by S-300 missile. It has broken on two parts after hit. So, either friendly fire, or... AIM-120 too?  

I'd really like to know what modifications were made on these Polish and Slovakian MiG-29s. It took a year to send them, I'm absolutely positive these weren't send there "naked". Thought to make use of the AIM-120 would require fitting and integrating a new radar, a daunting task for sure. All the "skunk works" going on with UA aircraft during this war absolutely deserves a book or two.

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, Huba said:

I'd really like to know what modifications were made on these Polish and Slovakian MiG-29s. It took a year to send them, I'm absolutely positive these weren't send there "naked". Thought to make use of the AIM-120 would require fitting and integrating a new radar, a daunting task for sure. All the "skunk works" going on with UA aircraft during this war absolutely deserves a book or two.

After yesterday ADM-160 launches, someone noted, that current launching platforms for this missile is B-52 and F-16 only. Sooooo.... Maybe we already have F-16? from Netherlands %)

Russians write (lower post):

Our aviation group was ambushed. Ethernal flight to our guys, and those who was responsible for border [covering] - a [shovel] handle in their as....oles

And yes, they launced missiles from Chernihiv oblast, coming almost closely to the border

 

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, Nastypastie said:

Or the above pictured Sparrows. Or just firing off their reserve stocks of R-77 and the like now that they have alternative western supplies and seemingly the means to use them.

We hadn't R-77

[Der Zeitgeist]

You may all think  this was a great day for Ukraine already. Just wait until they win the second ESC in a row tonight. 

[Peregrine]

Picture wasn't Sparrow. It was HARM (non-pointy tailfins) or a non-western weapon.

[photon]

It really seems like Russia has decided to speed run the Japanese strategy in the Pacific, and that the Ukranians have learned well from the American counter-strategy. The Russian strategy at Bakhmut mirrors the Japanese in the Solomons (a brutal attritional campaign for territory that was of very limited strategic value once the idea of a blitz was off the table), and the Ukranians, like the Americans, held on while simultaneously developing a second fighting force off the line.

The recent actions perhaps portend something like the Battle of the Philippine Sea, where the results of American corrosive warfare (both in the Solomons and the underwater blockade) became obvious for the first time.

In particular, the battle revealed the different first derivatives of pilot training and quality. It also revealed the effects of American ISR dominance, which increased the second derivative of the difference in pilot training and quality.

That battle collapsed the Japanese perception of their own option space, as it revealed the inability of their naval air arm to effect any strategic results. As the Americans realized this, the Big Gray Ball was free to maneuver strategically and force the sort of hard choices about dislocation on the Japanese that the Ukranians seem to be forcing on the Russians.

[Beleg85]

There is quite extensive inteview with gen. Zaluzhny made by Ukrainian tv. English subs, so ready to watch; some interesting tidbits especially regarding early phase of the war:

 

Edited May 13, 2023 by Beleg85

[Huba]

Here's something interesting:

And here's more RU stuff burning:

 

 

Edited May 13, 2023 by Huba

[DesertFox]

Some heck of smoking going on beneath that bridge...

 

Edited May 13, 2023 by DesertFox

[Haiduk]

Interesting post of one blogger, but it enough good reflects deep Russian mentality - to seek a new master if old one didn't live up to expectations.

 

I will not translate all - main take is next:

Russia has started conflict, having total superiority in all military branches, especially in aviation, long-range missiles and fleet. Russia had own ammunition production, when Ukriane hadn't. First three months allies didn't give to Ukraine nothing significant, only in June first 4 HIMARSes were aarived. And we managed to be fu...d on all northern front. Khokhols after this are highest race, than we are!!!! Fu..k, who else would stand against such advantage?! And now they gor modern equipment in that time we take old T-55 from storages. Now we will die on frontline and Tadjiks will come to our cities, Kadyrov call Russians to reproduce, in order he has someone "to millk" for money and subventions. What the fu..h sh..t?! Let khokhols capture us, they even look like us, they are highest race relatively us, if we after collapse of USSR reached the point where Tuvian fu..d fool [Shoigu] rules over us, and mountain sheep-fu...r [Kadyrov] compels all to excuse on video. This is total crash. Khokhols, we are ready to wear "sharovary" (Turkish-fasion trousers, popular among Cossacs since end of 17th centure, which became one of stereotype of Ukrainians), to make Ukrainian language as a state language and I already ordered "vyshyvanka" (traditional Ukrianian embroidered shirt) on Ali-Express. Forgive us, we recognize your superiority, we don't be slaves of "churkas" (snooty Russian name for all Middle-Asian and Caucasian nations) and Tuvians, protect us! 

[Haiduk]

21 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There is quite extensive inteview with gen. Zaluzhny made by Ukrainian tv. English subs, so ready to watch; some interesting tidbits especially regarding early phase of the war:

 

Russian PsyOps two days ago threw in our information space news as if Zaluzhnyi and some other top-commanders were eliminated in strike. Proofs? Because Zaluzhnyi didn't appear on planned meeting with NATO officials, even via video-conference. Alas, many of our "hissterical-squirrels" (especially Poroshenko-fololowers) became spread this news, adding own conspiracy based on fictional conflict between Zaluzhnyi and "Russian agents" Zelenskiy and Yermak. 

By the way in parallel reality of Poroshenko-followers, the war against Russia conducts only Zaluzhnyi, in that time when evil Yermak and his stupid puppet Zelenskiy try to betray and capitiulate, so Zaluzhnyi gives to the one plans of war, but in real realizes completely different one, because he knows, if they know real plans, they habded over it to Russia. Yes, this is Ukraine...  

Edited May 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[mosuri]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Now there's also a Su-25 being mentioned, on top of the 2 MI-8 and Su-34.

Edit:
Rybar says that it was a Su-35, not Su-25, which makes it even worse. He suggests an ambush by AIM-120 equipped  UA fighters as the reason for this carnage (or saboteurs with MANPADS).

We finally know what air defense doing!

[Haiduk]

Reportesly crews of all four shot down helicopters and jets didn't survive

[Holien]

29 minutes ago, photon said:

It really seems like Russia has decided to speed run the Japanese strategy in the Pacific, and that the Ukranians have learned well from the American counter-strategy. The Russian strategy at Bakhmut mirrors the Japanese in the Solomons (a brutal attritional campaign for territory that was of very limited strategic value once the idea of a blitz was off the table), and the Ukranians, like the Americans, held on while simultaneously developing a second fighting force off the line.

The recent actions perhaps portend something like the Battle of the Philippine Sea, where the results of American corrosive warfare (both in the Solomons and the underwater blockade) became obvious for the first time.

In particular, the battle revealed the different first derivatives of pilot training and quality. It also revealed the effects of American ISR dominance, which increased the second derivative of the difference in pilot training and quality.

That battle collapsed the Japanese perception of their own option space, as it revealed the inability of their naval air arm to effect any strategic results. As the Americans realized this, the Big Gray Ball was free to maneuver strategically and force the sort of hard choices about dislocation on the Japanese that the Ukranians seem to be forcing on the Russians.

Nice to read this. Thanks 

[DesertFox]

Rare Mi-8 and now even more rare...BTW if understood that correctly then the location of the Mi-8 crashsite is about 50km distance from the ukrainian border. Makes you wonder what got him?