How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Sako i Vancetti village

no way! I hope everyone in this village is a hardcore anarchist to this day.

[Anon052]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

Is it just me, or does Lukashenko look rather less than well in this picture?

Perhaps he had a very special cup of tea?

 

Edited May 9, 2023 by Anon052

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Anon052 said:

Perhaps he had a very special tea?

 

On the off chance he drops dead does the Belarusan opposition hav enough left to create a real uprising? Or does Putin just complete his annexation of Belarus in short order? I find almost any result in between to be very unlikely. There just isn't much middle ground left. I also seem to recall one of Lukashenko's stronger subordinates having a heart attack some months ago. No one seemed to think that pork fat and vodka were the primary culprits either.

[womble]

Given the relatively minor role of air power (due to airspace denial) in the Russian Genocidal Misadventure and its inherent mobility, the lack of a flypast speaks of something curtailing Russian options for the parade. Birds wouldn't even need to rebase, they could probably sortie from their operational stations and make a round trip to Moscow for a quick linear formation run. Maybe the Kremlin was nervous that Ukraine would choose May 9 to start kicking in doors, and wanted their air frames ready to scramble for CAS and its CAP, rather than flouncing about in the skies above the capital.

Were there flybys at any of the parades at cities other than Moscow?

[Haiduk]

This morning we had Russian missile attack again. 35 cruise missiles were launched (29 Kh-101/555, 6 Kalibr), 33 shot down. About 15 of them were shot down on approaches to Kyiv (two of them likley were interceped inside over the city outskirts, because two loud explosions were heard)  

Remains of missile shot down in SW part of Kyiv - it has spoiled a strawberry garden bed

And this homestead in some village or town near Kyiv was really lucky

Edited May 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

23 minutes ago, billbindc said:

And Peng shall judge.

Edited May 9, 2023 by Kinophile

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Remains of missile shot down in SW part of Kyiv - it has spoiled a strawberry garden bed

Hey, someone worked very hard on that strawberry patch. In other sad news Ghirkin is VERY unhappy.

 

[Kinophile]

LMAO "Inhabitants of the Planet of The Pink Ponies (PRP)"...

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, akd said:

no way! I hope everyone in this village is a hardcore anarchist to this day.

This village already before war was dead and existed only on paper - it had 3 settlers in 2001. Probably because of that reason its name "forgot" to decommunize. But this his historical name, because it appeared in 20th-30th years of 20th century.   

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/05/09/thousands-of-ukrainian-soldiers-are-missing-in-action

 

Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are missing in action

It is hard for families to get information or help

 

Ukraine is apparently being less than brilliant at this. Zelensky needs to put someone in charge of fixing it with enough political pull to move the needle.

https://www.instagram.com/alishamisha/?hl=en comes immediately to mind. I am sure there are many others who could do it effectively if it was made their only job.

Edit: The quality of her instagram page is exhibit A.

Edited May 9, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

On the off chance he drops dead does the Belarusan opposition hav enough left to create a real uprising?

No. Real Belarusian opposition, able for uprising fights in several Belarusian volunteer units, fighting on Ukraine side:

regiment named after Kostus' Kalinovskiy - in Armed Forces of Ukraine

special purpose regiment "Pogonia" - part of Foreign Legion (subordianbtion unclear, probably SOF Command/GUR)

Belarusian Volunteer Corps (most known unit - battalion "Terror") - in GUR 

 

[Battlefront.com]

42 minutes ago, akd said:

no way! I hope everyone in this village is a hardcore anarchist to this day.

Heh... I got that, but it took me 2 times and thinking back to my school days.  Nicely played!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This village already before war was dead and existed only on paper - it had 3 settlers in 2001. Probably because of that reason its name "forgot" to decommunize. But this his historical name, because it appeared in 20th-30th years of 20th century.   

This is good information, but of course you did not get AKD's obscure reference.

Village Name = Sako i Vancetti

Famous American Anarchists = Nicola Sacco and Bartolomeo Vanzetti

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sacco_and_Vanzetti

It seems some village names were influenced by more than New York

Steve

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is good information, but of course you did not get AKD's obscure reference.

I read recently about this pair, being made a heroes by commies ), but I have knew them only in this year when the name of this village appeared in news )    

[Jiggathebauce]

56 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I read recently about this pair, being made a heroes by commies ), but I have knew them only in this year when the name of this village appeared in news )    

If anyone made them heroes it was the state,they targeted them for a crime they didn't commit and persecuted them for their beliefs and for being immigrants, in gross violation of the values of a free country.  

Edited May 9, 2023 by Jiggathebauce
Clarity

[Beleg85]

Perhaps a video showing running Russian soldiers from 72 MotBg., the ones Prigozhin talked about. Reportedly lost 150 personnell.

[chuckdyke]

6 hours ago, dan/california said:

Is this picture of the Bren carrier real, and from today?

I don't know, I think it may be a regional celebration. 

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'd bet all future CM development revenues that it was a decision they felt they HAD to do rather than WANTED to do. 

The actual factual reasons for the Kremlin's decisions are not really relevant, though fun to speculate upon.  We should be focused on the result and not the cause.

Here I agree, however, why they felt they HAD to is where I think the rub may be.  I think they had constraints because of the war but they were likely more closely tied to the internal audience narratives and perception than hard resources.

I do think they are relevant as they hint at the constraints and restraints that an opponent finds themselves within.  These will likely impact their decision making and options spaces as the war continues and may lead to other indicators and signals.  The tough part is trying to see what are real constraints and restraints along with their causes.

As to result.  Well looks like a pretty subdued outing which could be read as solemn and respectful to those still in combat and those lost.  Or it could be read as the gasps of a regime that may be slipping.  It will hardly go down in history as a defining moment in this war one way or the other.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Perhaps a video showing running Russian soldiers from 72 MotBg., the ones Prigozhin talked about. Reportedly lost 150 personnell.

Ride them down!

[Battlefront.com]

31 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Here I agree, however, why they felt they HAD to is where I think the rub may be.  I think they had constraints because of the war but they were likely more closely tied to the internal audience narratives and perception than hard resources.

I do think they are relevant as they hint at the constraints and restraints that an opponent finds themselves within.  These will likely impact their decision making and options spaces as the war continues and may lead to other indicators and signals.  The tough part is trying to see what are real constraints and restraints along with their causes.

As to result.  Well looks like a pretty subdued outing which could be read as solemn and respectful to those still in combat and those lost.  Or it could be read as the gasps of a regime that may be slipping.  It will hardly go down in history as a defining moment in this war one way or the other.

It is also important that we acknowledge that as much as Putin had this targeting his domestic audience, it sent a strong message to the world audience.  It projects an image of weakness which the misplaced criticism of the lack of armor only enhances.

It is also important that these parades used to be as much for foreign as dometic audiences.  The huge show of military force marching in sync was supposed to make EVERYBODY quiver in fear, home and abroad, with a dual message to local would-be troublemakers that the Kremlin is all powerful.  The only people that got the warm and fuzzies this year are the brainwashed locals who want to believe in Kremlin power.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Perhaps a video showing running Russian soldiers from 72 MotBg., the ones Prigozhin talked about. Reportedly lost 150 personnell.

Hard to tell, but it looks like a serious route.  The first bit shows lots of Russians running away without their rifles.  I don't know what to make of the BMPs that were shown, whether they were sent to evacuate or reinforce the position (assuming it was the same engagement).

Steve

[Lethaface]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is also important that we acknowledge that as much as Putin had this targeting his domestic audience, it sent a strong message to the world audience.  It projects an image of weakness which the misplaced criticism of the lack of armor only enhances.

It is also important that these parades used to be as much for foreign as dometic audiences.  The huge show of military force marching in sync was supposed to make EVERYBODY quiver in fear, home and abroad, with a dual message to local would-be troublemakers that the Kremlin is all powerful.  The only people that got the warm and fuzzies this year are the brainwashed locals who want to believe in Kremlin power.

Steve

One talking head I heard today was smirking (as well) and made a reference to 1941: even while the battle of Moscow raged rather close, Stalin held a grand Oktober military parade in Moscow.

I thought it was very fair to do so given how Russia likes it's historical references ;-).

[quakerparrot67]

5 hours ago, sburke said:

what could possibly go wrong when among your friends?

 

i'm prolly an idiot, but who are those goons? they gotta be the cast of something 'cosa nostra' oriented on cable, right.....?

riiiiiight...? 

 EDIT-          

ok- DOH!!!  just noticed someone jooking like gandolfini sitting there.  never actually seen the show.  heard it's good.  prolly give it a try soon. 

never mind.

 

cheers,

rob

 

Edited May 9, 2023 by quakerparrot67

[quakerparrot67]

delete

 

Edited May 9, 2023 by quakerparrot67

[Harmon Rabb]

33 minutes ago, quakerparrot67 said:

i'm prolly an idiot, but who are those goons? they gotta be the cast of something 'cosa nostra' oriented on cable, right.....?

riiiiiight...?

 

cheers,

rob

 

Cosa Nostra? Na...They are a group of Opera singers. There is no Mafia!

 

@Anonymous_Jonze

Edited May 10, 2023 by Harmon Rabb