How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

59 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Hilarious thought I had of Putin calling everyone he knows and no one will post bail. 

Putin calling everyone he knows and no one answers.    Putin:"G*dd@mni1!  Voicemail again!!!!"

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

Presumes the ‘investor’ wants ‘the whole damn car’. 
If your goal was wrecking the Russian military, who cares if the car only has two wheels?  It’s just bait.  You never planned to drive it anywhere anyway.    
Admittedly, a cynical view.

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Well if the UA loses the ability to deny air space then Russia will likely fall back on "airplanes = artillery" doctrine and start using that a lot more.  That said though, as far as I can tell Russian airpower is not what one could call a highly integrated and precision force.  When they say "artillery" they mean Soviet artillery.  Pick a grid square and hammer it.  This will be problematic as the UA tends to disperse up and take advantage of Russian ISR asymmetry.  It could definitely effect the UAs ability to concentrate and attempt a breakout battle.  Assuming that Russia can glue together a better integration of air and land power, which has not really been that great.

Now as to what "Ukrainian air defenses get degraded" well I suspect that is a spectrum.  It may free up higher altitudes, but the lower one goes MANPADs start to kick in, and below that UAS space.  So sure more high altitude strikes, likely low precision but massed much like we saw the use of artillery last summer.  But the Russians are likely going to be pretty cautious.  Aircraft are really expensive and hard/long to replace.  Russia has a big sky problem and cannot lose too much in Ukraine or risk holes in their ability to control their own airspaces. I guess we will have to see if the Ukrainian air defenses really do start to fold- and if they do shame on us.  It would be like investing in a car with only two wheels.  I mean you buy the whole damn car or what is the point? 

I mean we COULD send Ukraine and a 150 ATACMS, stand up a new version of the Flying Tigers to get f-16s in the fight in a month, and win the bleeping war but it seems we would rather draw it out. If Russia hasn't figured it out in year as bad as the last one, what exactly are we waiting for, besides Putin dying of natural causes?

Edited May 2, 2023 by dan/california

[Joe982]

I think the oil fire in Sebastopol, is to deny fuel to the Russian navy. Otherwise the navy could interfere in ground operations in Crimea.

So, I think the attack will be to the south. Get near to the coast and then start bombing The kerch bridge.

They will take the shortest route to the coast which is Melitopol. If the Russians perform badly the Ukranians might get to the east of Berdyansk.

The road from Mariupol, runs north to heavily defended Donetsk so the Ukranians will stop west of Mariupol and then form a line back to Ukranian territory. Such a line will 1,000k long and hard to defend.

With the bridge destroyed the Ukranians will threaten Sebastopol and at that point offer to negotiate.

 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Another aspect of dedicated drone operators is that with bombers and kamikazes they can act on opportunities without having to coordinate with other units or wait for assets to become available.  In this video an observation drone spots a bunch of Russians running into a basement.  The observer monitors the situation as a kamikaze drone is launched and flown to the target area and right into the basement.  Based on other videos we have watched, it is highly probable that the observer and kamikaze drone operators are physically seated next to each other.  Talk about integrated operations!

Steve

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Occupied Zaporizhzhia oblast. Typical behavior of "liberators". Old women was kicked in jump with two legs in her back

 

They really are just scum. 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/defense-aerospace-report/id1228868129?i=1000611344540

 

Quote

 

https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/aaaa/2023/04/27/armys-future-attack-helicopter-analysis-unlikely-to-alter-program/

 

The U.S. Army apparently still thinks manned recon helicopters are thing, and are prepared to proceed with the program. I have doubts...

[Vanir Ausf B]

7 hours ago, Huba said:

Perhaps he meant the whole Donbas - in any case, these numbers are staggering.

 

Apparently those numbers were supposed to be for the whole war since December.

[chuckdyke]

Excellent Website. Modern War Institute - (usma.edu)

[Battlefront.com]

51 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Apparently those numbers were supposed to be for the whole war since December.

Cool, that jibes.  50k Wagner alone, which would be Bakhmut.  Non-Wagner units have been fighting and getting slaughtered in Bakhmut as well, so the number for Bakhmut alone is likely much higher.  My guess of 80k at Bakhmut and 20k with Avdiivka taking the lead followed by the collective battles between Svatove-Kreminna, and of course Vuhledar.  Smattering of casualties here and there.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Good article in Politico that sheds some light on how the 40 member Ukraine Defense Contract Group figures out its donations to keep Ukraine equipped:

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/01/austin-defense-meetings-weapons-ukraine-00089946

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Reports that Ukraine hit Tokmak and Mykhailivka targets yesterday:

Edit to add that these do seem to be prep for the launch of the counter offensive and that they are both located in the sector that I favor as the primary attack vector.  Which means nothing as this could be distraction or just coincidental opportunity.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

More examples of how Russia continues to waste manpower by forming units that are bound to be slaughtered:

These convicts received no training and no qualified leadership.  They were organized hastily and sent to the front to perform combat missions.  It appears their orders came from a civilian volunteer who wasn't physical capable of being in the military!  Incredible.

Steve

[Fenris]

Perhaps they're making room in the prison system for "malcontents" that are soon to be rounded up, hastily sentenced and after a month or two in jail moved to the front to sign contracts.

Rinse, repeat. Conscript mercenaries with no rights or benefits under the russian military system.

[Battlefront.com]

Very interesting and detailed document (promoted by Kofman) getting at the events and timeline for Putin deciding to go to war in February 2022.  The article goes all the way back to the early 2000s and moves to the present time.  Here is the Google translated version from the original Ukrainian:

https://verstka-media.translate.goog/kak-putin-pridumal-voynu?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

One very interesting point made is that Putin felt humiliated by Zelensky at the 2020 "Normandy" talks.  Basically, Putin went thinking he would going to own the situation and come out with what he wanted, which was the implementation of the Minsk Agreement the way Russia wanted it.  Instead, Zelensky not only turned him down flat, but even suggested rewriting it to be more favorable to Ukraine.  That might have been what got Zelensky put at the top of Putin's kill list.

My sense of when Putin made the decision that an invasion was the only way to get what he wanted out of Ukraine seems to have been spot on.  Sometime in 2020 or 2021.  The article seems to pin it down more specifically to February 2021, which was Ukraine shutting down the pro-Russian media channels and then, finally, going after Medvedchuk.  At this point Putin concluded that his long game of taking over power in Ukraine by proxy was effectively destroyed.  Maybe if he was 50 or 60 years old he could have rebuilt it, but it was unlikely that he'd see it happen in his lifetime.

Interesting.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/corruption-in-russian-army-under-scrutiny-after-commander-arrested-for-selling-tank-engines/ss-AA1aCxJr?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a6abf5f403734f3d94f6197667cce673&ei=12

Not bad Free Enterprise Entrepreneur.

 

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

More examples of how Russia continues to waste manpower by forming units that are bound to be slaughtered:

These convicts received no training and no qualified leadership.  They were organized hastily and sent to the front to perform combat missions.  It appears their orders came from a civilian volunteer who wasn't physical capable of being in the military!  Incredible.

Steve

 

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Apparently those numbers were supposed to be for the whole war since December.

So that is about 833 casualties per day, Jan-Apr 23.  That is approx half of the daily rate of WW1 on the western front when things got going.  That is double all the KIA in 80s Afghanistan in 4 months.

What we do not know is how much of this was cannon fodder and how much as enablers and operational level capabilities.  

[kevinkin]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/massive-shockwave-from-russian-strike-may-have-been-a-rocket-storage-facility-detonating

If this was a high value target, 15/18 is not good enough. Would be interesting to know what type of missile defense was nearby and how it could be improved. 

[Bearstronaut]

7 hours ago, Fenris said:

Perhaps they're making room in the prison system for "malcontents" that are soon to be rounded up, hastily sentenced and after a month or two in jail moved to the front to sign contracts.

Rinse, repeat. Conscript mercenaries with no rights or benefits under the russian military system.

God, that's some really evil, dystopian s**t. 

[Harmon Rabb]

Two men trying to remind folks why Ukraine retaking Crimea is not optional but necessary.

Something tells me Ben Hodges and Jan Lipavský would get along just fine.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Bearstronaut said:

God, that's some really evil, dystopian s**t. 

And yet, it is mostly exactly what is happening.  Russia needs bodies for the front, bodies are on ice in prison, prison (even Russian Gulag style) costs the state money, so it's a win-win to have them go to the front.  If they survive and stay out of trouble, they freed up a costly prison cell while also getting manpower at the front.  If they die, they freed up a costly prison cell while also getting manpower at the front.  Either way, the Russian state "wins".  That much is all pretty clear, so it's only the part about them doing this with restocking the jail with "malcontents" that isn't known.  That said, pretty hard to imagine it hadn't crossed some Kremlin minds.

Of course there's precedent for what Russia did.  Not surprisingly the Gulags were emptied in WW2 to provide manpower for the front.  I found this article on a credible looking Russian website:

https://www.rbth.com/history/330280-how-criminals-became-soviet-heroes

Reading this article reminded me of how much smarter the Soviets were about warfare.  Instead of throwing prisoners into homogeneous units with no training, in WW2 they were simply fed into the replacement system just like anybody else.  The result being that a released prisoner was just as useful to the war effort as someone conscripted out of a city or rural village.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting video of a Russian tank being hit.  Seems to have been a Javelin that marginally hit the right rear, tank then tried to get away, then wound up in a ditch.  Something hit it again and it suffered a catastrophic explosion.

Another example of why it's so dangerous to operate a tank out in the open is with the modern weaponry around.

Steve

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting video of a Russian tank being hit.  Seems to have been a Javelin that marginally hit the right rear, tank then tried to get away, then wound up in a ditch.  Something hit it again and it suffered a catastrophic explosion.

Another example of why it's so dangerous to operate a tank out in the open is with the modern weaponry around.

Steve

Kinda looks like they were trying to pull into low ground, which is the standard old drill - won't do much for NLOS or even a Javelin that gets a lock because it just carries that lock with it at altitude.

[dan/california]

16 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another aspect of dedicated drone operators is that with bombers and kamikazes they can act on opportunities without having to coordinate with other units or wait for assets to become available.  In this video an observation drone spots a bunch of Russians running into a basement.  The observer monitors the situation as a kamikaze drone is launched and flown to the target area and right into the basement.  Based on other videos we have watched, it is highly probable that the observer and kamikaze drone operators are physically seated next to each other.  Talk about integrated operations!

Steve

Next year the kamikaze drone won't even need an operator. The recon drone can pass the gps of the target, and in a high jamming environment an terrain matching map automatically recorded by the recon drone. Any number of systems are already capable of pattern matching the picture of the basement opening for terminal guidance. Maybe the recon operator, or his assistant needs to pencil in the desired final attack vector in a 3d map view. There is no reason a two man team of drone operators couldn't dispatch an appropriately targeted kamikaze drone every thirty seconds in a target rich environment. And this is before someone wades into it with real AI. 

[sburke]

Explosion in Melitopol: Russians claim it was attempted assassination of Russian Internal Affairs top-official (yahoo.com)