How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

M113 in the mud

 

[Beleg85]

It seems Russians threw something again on Belgorod. Whoopsie.

Russo-russian conflict raging again. Both sides have atomic weapons.

On other note, interesting article:

https://www.ft.com/content/2f966366-5a5d-4851-bc68-bd735ac871ff

Edited April 22, 2023 by Beleg85

[Letter from Prague]

I remember a video where some guy (Russian I'm pretty sure) talked about Russians' political apathy. He said something like "when Putin started bombing Ukraine, you would have thought that Russians will react in some way but they didn't. But they would not react even if he started bombing Russia."

I didn't expect they would actually do it.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89553

The digital draft notice legislation is the Russian state’s first attempt to introduce elements of digital totalitarianism, but certainly not its last. The right mixture of care and fear, along with clearly delineated dos and don’ts, will allow the authorities to shape any political behavior. At this point, these are still mostly the Kremlin’s plans, but they illustrate how radically politics can be transformed in the digital age. 

 

There is a LOT of other stuff at the same site.

[chuckdyke]

Who should heed the lesson Russia or the Ukraine?

How Long Should Ukrainian Forces Defend Bakhmut? Lessons from Stalingrad - Modern War Institute (usma.edu)

[Battlefront.com]

Two topics in ISW's April 22 report's top section.

The first one is very, very interesting from a military standpoint.  ISW is confirming what we've been seeing bits and pieces of for months now, and that is Ukraine has been establishing positions on the islands and left bank of the Dnepr south of Kherson City.  The new information appears to be that Ukraine has been reinforcing and establishing reliable supply lines for the last few weeks, or perhaps longer.  Unmentioned is the Russian claim of defeating a very large (600+) crossing a week or so ago, which (if it happened) likely was a much smaller force.

Quote

Russian milbloggers have provided enough geolocated footage and textual reports to confirm that Ukrainian forces have established positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast as of April 22 though not at what scale or with what intentions. Geolocated footage published by a Russian milblogger on April 22 shows that Ukrainian forces have established positions on the Dnipro River bank north of Oleshky (7km southwest of Kherson City) and advanced up to the northern outskirts of the settlement on the E97 highway, as well as west of Dachi (10km south of Kherson City).[1] This footage also indicates that Russian forces may not control islands in the Kinka and Chaika rivers less than half a kilometer north of the geolocated Ukrainian positions near the Antonivsky Bridge. Russian milbloggers claimed on April 20 and 22 that Ukrainian forces have maintained positions in east bank Kherson Oblast for weeks, established stable supply lines to these positions, and regularly conduct sorties in the area—all indicating a lack of Russian control over the area.[2] Another milblogger’s battle map claimed that Russian forces do not control some Dnipro River delta islands southwest of Kherson City as of April 22, suggesting possible Ukrainian advances on these islands.[3] Some milbloggers complained that the slow rate of Russian artillery fire due to the over-centralization of the Russian military command allowed Ukrainian forces to land on the east bank.[4] Russian forces may be prioritizing maintaining defenses in urban areas such as Oleshky and Nova Kakhovka, leaving the islands in the Dnipro River delta unmanned. The extent and intent of these Ukrainian positions remain unclear, as does Ukraine’s ability and willingness to maintain sustained positions in this area. ISW is recoding territory on the east bank of the Dnipro River to Ukrainian-held only now because this is the first time ISW has observed reliable geolocated imagery of Ukrainian positions on the east bank along with multi-sourced Russian reports of an enduring Ukrainian presence there.

The thing I don't get is why there hasn't been a concerted effort by Russian forces to push the Ukrainians out or, at the very least, deal with them Anzio style.  As it is neither side has been saying much about the fighting and it seems Russia has not committed itself to getting the Ukrainians off the left bank.  Which doesn't make much sense because this poses a big threat and also theoretically could have served as a propaganda victory if they destroyed the forces there.  What does make sense is not telling the Russian people that Ukraine managed to successfully cross one of the biggest water obstacles in force while Russia couldn't get itself over a glorified stream at Bilohorvika.  Still, you'd think they'd at least try to do something decisive.

The rest of the top section sketches out a theory that the MoD and Prig have temporarily decided to join forces to convince Putin to go on the defensive completely.  More importantly, there are reports that the MoD is sending conscript units to Crimea to free up combat forces to be ready for the coming Ukrainian counter offensive.  The ramifications of this is that presumably sizeable numbers of conscripts will now be in harm's way.

The struggle for determining the military's overall strategy in Ukraine seems to be between the bulk of the fighting forces, including Wagner, and hardcore ultra nationalists who think the only way to win this war is by attacking.  If Ukraine succeeds to cause Russia significant territorial loss and casualties in the coming months, we might see a coup attempt if Putin sticks with the radical war mongers.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

45 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Which doesn't make much sense because this poses a big threat and also theoretically could have served as a propaganda victory if they destroyed the forces there. 

Def Mon mentioned something about this a few days ago.

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Two topics in ISW's April 22 report's top section.

The first one is very, very interesting from a military standpoint.  ISW is confirming what we've been seeing bits and pieces of for months now, and that is Ukraine has been establishing positions on the islands and left bank of the Dnepr south of Kherson City.  The new information appears to be that Ukraine has been reinforcing and establishing reliable supply lines for the last few weeks, or perhaps longer.  Unmentioned is the Russian claim of defeating a very large (600+) crossing a week or so ago, which (if it happened) likely was a much smaller force.

The thing I don't get is why there hasn't been a concerted effort by Russian forces to push the Ukrainians out or, at the very least, deal with them Anzio style.  As it is neither side has been saying much about the fighting and it seems Russia has not committed itself to getting the Ukrainians off the left bank.  Which doesn't make much sense because this poses a big threat and also theoretically could have served as a propaganda victory if they destroyed the forces there.  What does make sense is not telling the Russian people that Ukraine managed to successfully cross one of the biggest water obstacles in force while Russia couldn't get itself over a glorified stream at Bilohorvika.  Still, you'd think they'd at least try to do something decisive.

The rest of the top section sketches out a theory that the MoD and Prig have temporarily decided to join forces to convince Putin to go on the defensive completely.  More importantly, there are reports that the MoD is sending conscript units to Crimea to free up combat forces to be ready for the coming Ukrainian counter offensive.  The ramifications of this is that presumably sizeable numbers of conscripts will now be in harm's way.

The struggle for determining the military's overall strategy in Ukraine seems to be between the bulk of the fighting forces, including Wagner, and hardcore ultra nationalists who think the only way to win this war is by attacking.  If Ukraine succeeds to cause Russia significant territorial loss and casualties in the coming months, we might see a coup attempt if Putin sticks with the radical war mongers.

Steve

Putin has zealously pursued a strategy of not allowing anyone to get to his right, and attack him from that side. I would argue that has been his play since 2/24/2022, if not well before. Among other things that is the only conceivable reason he turned down the rather good offer Zelensky made him March 2022. His ever more obvious problem is that this leaves ~80% of the country to his left stewing in the ever greater dissatisfaction and misery that Putin's disastrous, ruinous, and lost war is inflicting on them.  Even with a totalitarian system that makes Orwell look like an optimist that might matter eventually.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-22-2023

One Russian milblogger claimed that heavy rains washed out Ukrainian controlled dirt roads into Bakhmut making withdrawals from the city impossible.[43] Another Russian milblogger continued to claim that heavy rains are preventing wheeled vehicles from using field roads but asserted that Ukrainian forces are able to use tracked vehicles along these roads into Bakhmut.

 

The other thing strongly implied in todays ISW is that the ground is still bottomless bog, and we are therefore at least a week out from the Ukrainians kicking off for real.

[kluge]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Unmentioned is the Russian claim of defeating a very large (600+) crossing a week or so ago, which (if it happened) likely was a much smaller force.

The footage that ISW linked to supporting the Russian claims of a crossing shows a much, much smaller force of a lone inflatable boat with two persons onboard. Quite the armada.

[Yet]

1 hour ago, kluge said:

The footage that ISW linked to supporting the Russian claims of a crossing shows a much, much smaller force of a lone inflatable boat with two persons onboard. Quite the armada.

not the 'evidence', but it also doesnt mean that it isnt true. RU doesnt make these kind of claims in a daily basis. 

the claim they made that UKR speciaal forces tried to take the nuclear power plant also turned out to be more true than some of us here expected.

[kluge]

1 hour ago, Yet said:

not the 'evidence', but it also doesnt mean that it isnt true. RU doesnt make these kind of claims in a daily basis. 

the claim they made that UKR speciaal forces tried to take the nuclear power plant also turned out to be more true than some of us here expected.

Ah, I didn't mean to imply that it was false. It's clear that UKR has some degree of control over that particular part of the left bank.

What I'm surmising is that the density of UKR forces is too low to present an economical target for a full fledged response, but still high enough to unnerve the Russians in that area.

[Haiduk]

Drone unit Code 9.2 of 3rd mech.battalion of 92nd mech. brigade eliminates Russians with high precise bombing during the fight for position near Khromove

Soldiers of 92nd brigade claen up probably the same trench 

 

[Kraft]

Russians have been testing anti-thermal imager clothing.

[Haiduk]

13 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Russians have been testing anti-thermal imager clothing.

I've seen original tweet about this. In comments one soldier told this clothes doesn't prevent thermal spotting, but can blur figure outline from distance.

PS. it's good for not hot weather, when temperature will grow up to 20+ to move in this "thermos" will be a torture

Edited April 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Taranis]

15 hours ago, Haiduk said:

M113 in the mud

 

seems coming from 3rd Assault Brigade 'Azov'

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

I've seen original tweet about this. In comments one soldier told this clothes doesn't prevent thermal spotting, but can blur figure outline from distance.

PS. it's good for not hot weather, when temperature will grow up to 20+ to move in this "thermos" will be a torture

They have been talking about this for years.  Beyond cooking one’s own soldiers in their own juices, its practical application on the battlefield is really limited.  SOF and elements of recon maybe, but large infantry units become unpractical very quickly and gain little advantage for the cost.  NVGs and radars still work to pick up large bodies of infantry and the logistics of keeping a bunch of soldiers in space suits is just crazy.

And it does nothing for the real targets of thermal, vehicles.

[kevinkin]

Sobering recap for the start of a new week:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-the-brutal-wait-for-ukraines-counteroffensive

An article on the Sudan rescue mission is also there. 

[panzermartin]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Drone unit Code 9.2 of 3rd mech.battalion of 92nd mech. brigade eliminates Russians with high precise bombing during the fight for position near Khromove

Soldiers of 92nd brigade claen up probably the same trench 

 

Intense and disturbing footage. You can see mutilated and beheaded soldiers, the drones were very accurate (or artillery before them). 

I wonder, are these trenches dug in by Ukrainian army? Or did Russians really had the time to dug in so extensively in a fluid and exposed environment on the western Bakhmut outskirts. 

I'm again not surprised by how little support russian forward troops receive some times. They seem to get hammered for quite some time, and then left to die without arty/aviation /drone /armor relief in an area that's supposed to be of reach for the numerous russian assets in the area. Must be that Wagner dug in and die "technique" or completely cut off troops. 

 

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I wonder, are these trenches dug in by Ukrainian army? Or did Russians really had the time to dug in so extensively in a fluid and exposed environment on the western Bakhmut outskirts. 

Ukrainian, of course. If Wagners dig something long-term, they do this is own close and far rear. Close to the enemy Wagners either use natural terrain cover or dig deep and often multiple foxholes for one-two persons, where they can take cover from artillery shelling or await for burst on UKR positions. Because of this Madyar called them "khrobaky" - "worms", which became one more names for enemy. 

[DesertFox]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Drone unit Code 9.2 of 3rd mech.battalion of 92nd mech. brigade eliminates Russians with high precise bombing during the fight for position near Khromove

Soldiers of 92nd brigade claen up probably the same trench 

 

Excellent footage, as always. Reoccuring theme is that the orcs absolutely do not seem to give a flying flamingo about their wounded. Absolutely disgusting!

[Harmon Rabb]

My favorite Polish Youtube geopolitical analyst, has released a trilogy of videos dealing with the potential collapse of the Russian Federation. Nothing that has not been discussed here over the last 2000+ pages, but I'm a visual learner and I enjoy his presentation style.

By GTBT's own admission he got a lot of his information for these videos from a book written by a British political scientist named Janusz Bugajski, who wrote the book Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. A book you can download for free here.

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Haiduk]

UKR soldier uses satchel charge to blow up the enemy in blindage (he put HE in usual supermarket packet). There was other video several days ago how 3rd assault brigade trains to use sathcel charges in trench assault, but I can't find it. So, this not single usage, but "old but gold" series %)

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

On background of story how GUR planned to attack Wagner's base in Syria, interesting news from Mali. Some fighters attacked military base near Sevare town, where Wagners are deployed. There are three car-bombs were exploded, then armed fighters attacked the base. Local officials initially said about at least 10 killed and about  60 wounded. Other source says already about 29 KIA. It's unknown about who exactly were killed during this attack.

 

 

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Drone unit Code 9.2 of 3rd mech.battalion of 92nd mech. brigade eliminates Russians with high precise bombing during the fight for position near Khromove

Soldiers of 92nd brigade claen up probably the same trench 

 

Good Lord, that is some cold blooded warfare. Looked like an entire platoon wiped out by drone grenades.

On the Kherson crossing rumors Steve mentioned above, I can see how this makes sense for UKR.  Maybe it's just feints but maybe UKR has decided this area is so weak it's worth the risk of the river supply line (I doubt this).  But if it causes RU to shift some forces over here to counter nothing, that's great.  If they don't shift forces maybe UKR can get a foothold from which it can raid and cut supply lines.  Would be great to start offensive toward Tokmak/Meltipol and then  if RU pulls forces out of the kherson river area to actually make a beachhead to cause some RU panic.  This is all amateur-hour stuff on my part, but there's definitely a lot more choices on the UKR side than on the RU side.  Just the fear of the counteroffensive helps UKR to be able to cause RU to react where UKR wants RU to react.