How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[hcrof]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Correct, but these are not purpose built loitering munitions   These have the ability to "return to base" if they don't find something to smash into.  Provided, of course, the drone doesn't exceed it's return range, which was the case for the video I pointed to.  Either the operator presumed (or assumed) there was something juicy to hit, and made do with a tractor, or they had enough of these lying around that committing to targeting a tractor was deemed worth doing.

Steve

Not sure I want a quadcopter with an armed PG7 round duct taped to it landing anywhere near me!

[Seminole]

On 4/19/2023 at 11:58 AM, Butschi said:

You do realize that you two are talking about different 'we's, right?

[dan/california]

37 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Correct, but these are not purpose built loitering munitions   These have the ability to "return to base" if they don't find something to smash into.  Provided, of course, the drone doesn't exceed it's return range, which was the case for the video I pointed to.  Either the operator presumed (or assumed) there was something juicy to hit, and made do with a tractor, or they had enough of these lying around that committing to targeting a tractor was deemed worth doing.

Steve

 

34 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Not sure I want a quadcopter with an armed PG7 round duct taped to it landing anywhere near me!

This , once armed these improvised FPV drones might be way too dangerous to bring back for recovery. Since they are improvised I am sure there are forty different ways a dozen different shell, rockets and grenades are fiddled with to ensure the go off when the drone hits its target, but I am guessing just about all of them make them less safe to handle. With drones you lose the ability to use the very high Gs of being launched/fired as the primary arming step for the fuse. Far better to send them after almost any Russian target, or even a suspected Russian target. Although both sides seem to employ the kamikaze drones with higher flying recon only drones when possible.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

 

This , once armed these improvised FPV drones might be way too dangerous to bring back for recovery. Since they are improvised I am sure there are forty different ways a dozen different shell, rockets and grenades are fiddled with to ensure the go off when the drone hits its target, but I am guessing just about all of them make them less safe to handle. With drones you lose the ability to use the very high Gs of being launched/fired as the primary arming step for the fuse. Far better to send them after almost any Russian target, or even a suspected Russian target. Although both sides seem to employ the kamikaze drones with higher flying recon only drones when possible.

Nah, not with an RPG round.  Very stable and require significant force to detonate.  Quad copters can be literally plucked out of the air, but out of excessive caution landing it in an open field solves the problem.

The benefit of being low tech is that it's low tech

Steve

[kluge]

51 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Not sure I want a quadcopter with an armed PG7 round duct taped to it landing anywhere near me!

Indeed, a primed to detonate jury rigged munition has Murphy's Law written all over it.

[chrisl]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Nah, not with an RPG round.  Very stable and require significant force to detonate.  Quad copters can be literally plucked out of the air, but out of excessive caution landing it in an open field solves the problem.

The benefit of being low tech is that it's low tech

Steve

They're also normally armed by the propellant explosion, so to be useful on the drone they have to be pre-armed somehow before takeoff.  I don't think I'd want an armed RPG coming back to me.

[Armorgunner]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is a point that often gets missed by the tech minded and laymen commentators alike.  While it is important to recognize the relative benefit of newer tech vs. older tech, there needs to be more emphasis on "good enough" tech vs. "not good enough tech".  Hearing someone say "yeah, but we're only giving Ukrainians 1990s or 2000s tech, which was very good for its day" really misses the point when the Russians are increasingly relying upon 1960s and 1970s tech that wasn't good even when it was new.

I once heard a US battalion commander make fun of his own rifleman for sticking pounds and pounds of tech onto their rifles.  He said he could hit targets in combat situations sufficiently without all the "bling" weighing him down.  The relevant point here is that at some point a system is sufficiently lethal enough to do the job it needs to do.  Improving it is desirable, of course, but if you already overmatch your opponent then it's headed towards a point of diminishing returns to the extent that the enemy isn't keeping up with its improvements. 

This is the difference between Russia today in this war and China in a possible future conflict.  Russia is overmatched by aging NATO equipment, China probably isn't.  Ukraine can win with older tech.

Steve

All the Swedish CV90 upp to, the "C" modell, is the Mk 0. Even If improved, from the "A" modell, and then onwards. But the thermals, on the Swedish modells, have not been touched on any of the A,B, or C uppgrades.

Norwegians are wining about bad thermals, on their Mk 1 too. The Mk 2, and Mk 3 shhould be good. And the new Mk 4, in the spec we intendend to buy. With the Akeron MP-ATGM in dual configuration. Has a range of 5km, with LOAL, and NLOS. 

Just hopes it workes better than French Cars, witch on paper seems good like a good deal. But breaks down all the time IRL. But you in the USA dont know about French Cars, since they are not sold in the USA

Edited April 20, 2023 by Armorgunner

[Haiduk]

Situaion in Bakhmut

Russians could push off UKR forces slightly south from some parts of Rose Alley in northern part of city. Heavy skirmishes around grain elevator, which still under UKR control. 

One of two streets, which UKR troops have recaptured yesreday, again was seized by Russians. 

On southern flank, as became knowingly from Russian sources, UKR forces on 18th of April have retaken positions around old quarry between Stupochky and Klishchiivka

Edited April 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

This is the video I was thinking of, these guys give every possible indication that they would rather not drop that grenade.  

 

 

This an example of a defense contractor trying to build an armed military drone from scratch. I would definitely classify this as a "heavy" model. But it gives an idea of what is floating around out there in development. Interestingly it mentions collaboration with Turkish partners. 

[Haiduk]

Very extreme low altitude flight %)

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

They're also normally armed by the propellant explosion, so to be useful on the drone they have to be pre-armed somehow before takeoff.  I don't think I'd want an armed RPG coming back to me.

Why not?  Land it in a field where nobody is around.  You'll know pretty quickly if it is going to explode

I will come back to the point I made that keeps getting lost.  The purpose built loitering "kamikaze" type drones, such as Switchblade, either strike a target or get self destructed.  They can not come back home to be used again no matter what.  The homemade type quad copters have the option of returning home if a mission fails.  The benefit is, obviously, the opportunity to use the drone again instead of wasting it.

This is no different than an improvised drone bomber returning without having found anything to bomb.  Pins get put back into grenades and bingo... all set for another mission.  While I certainly wouldn't love the idea of rearming a drone like this, it's not a big risk if you know what you're doing.

Steve

[NamEndedAllen]

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Did US forces in combat see their “murder aversion” change over time? Warfare throughout history demonstrates that it gets pretty normal to kill, pretty fast.  

Yep. Jim, my longtime mentor, enlisted at 17. He was the youngest guy and the Gunny in a 10th Mtn weapons platoon during Kesselring’s defense of Italy. But Sully made him the platoon leader because…Jim stayed very calm. He only began talking about it in the last ten years of his life, during our long weekly Tuesday coffee sessions. His First Time -  he sees the young German soldier, who also sees him. Jim fires first.  Looked at the kid’s face later and thought, “Doesn’t look much different than me.” But next day, and the next day and the next: no hesitation, no remorse…simply kill or be killed.  End of story.

[Battlefront.com]

41 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

 

This an example of a defense contractor trying to build an armed military drone from scratch. I would definitely classify this as a "heavy" model. But it gives an idea of what is floating around out there in development. Interestingly it mentions collaboration with Turkish partners. 

This type of drone has a lot of practical applications, but I think as an air defense platform it has a lot of potential.  A unit can get a headsup from a radar unit that a fixed or rotary wing aircraft is inbound on its positions.  Launch one of these suckers with Air to Air missiles and position them in the path of the oncoming aircraft.  The enemy aircraft MIGHT detect them on radar, and if so that gives them a pretty good incentive to go bother someone else.   If they aren't detected then they might find a missile coming right for them with less warning than if ground launched.

Obviously this would be great for killing tanks.  But so isn't everything else these days

Steve

[Kinophile]

Hodges is very bullish on Crimea falling.. 

But it's a long way from Kherson/Odessa to Sebastaopol and Ukraine does not have even air parity and little operationally effective naval presence. 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

They're also normally armed by the propellant explosion, so to be useful on the drone they have to be pre-armed somehow before takeoff.  I don't think I'd want an armed RPG coming back to me.

Worst RTB order ever. 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Very extreme low altitude flight %)

Ukrainians should start to erect road signs with Mi-24 along highways.

 

In Belgorod something exploded. Could be S-300 falling. Or giant mole.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

19 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Hodges is very bullish on Crimea falling.. 

But it's a long way from Kherson/Odessa to Sebastaopol and Ukraine does not have even air parity and little operationally effective naval presence. 

He sees Crimea as an island that can be isolated and the Russian position there made untenable over time. He is not betting on air/navy actions, landings and suchs

[BlackMoria]

4 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Good points and I have asked myself some of these questions. We had bloody merciless war since ancient times, with soldiers ripping the guts of people with pointy things, have we really changed at all? I try to resist the idea that war is implemented in human nature, but sometimes I can't find a good counter argument. 

Still, I admit I dont feel very comfortable with the edited morbid videos, the music even if I understand its for raising morale or propaganda. Apart from the smiling Nazis posing after executions, I don't think there was a lot of intention from each side to ridicule their victims or glorify the kill back then. Or perhaps it deliberately went less documented.  

My take after 6 months peacekeeping in Bosnia in '93 -  Savagery is baked into human beings.  Sorry, there is no 'better angels of our nature'  My time in Bosnia dispelled that myth real quick.  The 'better angels of our nature' happens because we employ the frontal cortex to govern ourselves.  But warfare is very primal and hits the primitive emotional centers of our brains first.   Once that happens, the excesses of violence humans are capable of know no bounds.  Which is why in the 22nd century in the future, historians and people will be examining the genocides of the 21st century and asking the same questions.

[Kinophile]

14 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

He sees Crimea as an island that can be isolated and the Russian position there made untenable over time. He is not betting on air/navy actions, landings and suchs

That's a big ask. There are a lot of ways for Russia to resupply,  and we haven't seen Ukraine build the kind of massive inventory and resupply capacity of long range fires which that plan would require.  That would put a Crimea offensive at minimum a year away. 

And someone will still need to walk onto Crimea,  on foot. There is a lot Russia can do, even under a sustained long range fires campaign, to make that a hellish job for any assault infantry. 

Edited April 20, 2023 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

He sees Crimea as an island that can be isolated and the Russian position there made untenable over time. He is not betting on air/navy actions, landings and suchs

I have read many of Hodges posts on the subject and heard him in many interviews.  My view is the same as yours... he's talking longer term than this summer.  But I think he keeps his time tables deliberately vague to bolster support for Ukraine and to make Russians squirm.

Did I mention I like Hodges quite a bit?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

My take after 6 months peacekeeping in Bosnia in '93 -  Savagery is baked into human beings.  Sorry, there is no 'better angels of our nature'  My time in Bosnia dispelled that myth real quick.  The 'better angels of our nature' happens because we employ the frontal cortex to govern ourselves.  But warfare is very primal and hits the primitive emotional centers of our brains first.   Once that happens, the excesses of violence humans are capable of know no bounds.  Which is why in the 22nd century in the future, historians and people will be examining the genocides of the 21st century and asking the same questions.

My perspective as a historian (of sorts) is that society's general attitude towards life dictates its approach to war.  The more lawless and brutal the society, the more barbaric the behavior on the battlefield.  Exhibit A right now is, of course, Russia.

What is already in the mind of the soldier makes matters worse.  If the soldier is violent and disrespectful of others in civilian life, then he's primed to do horrible things in war.  Exhibit B is Wagner.

It is important for people to understand that Einsatzgruppen were not random samplings of Reich society (remember the members were not just Germans).  Instead the men manning these murder units were, by and large, the mental misfits that served no positive role in society even under the best conditions.  They were given uniforms, weapons, and instructions to be who they really were.  I have the same sense about Arkan's Tigers, which drew from pre-war violent criminal elements.

This is why political and/or religious extremist movements are so dangerous.  Even before a conflict they have already discarded most of the things which keep people from being violent towards each other.  They also disproportionally draw from the same pools of recruits as Einsatzgruppen, Ustaše, Arkan's Tigers, Wagner, etc.  Unfortunately, this is timeless.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have read many of Hodges posts on the subject and heard him in many interviews.  My view is the same as yours... he's talking longer term than this summer.  But I think he keeps his time tables deliberately vague to bolster support for Ukraine and to make Russians squirm.

He actually does have a fairly specific time table, contingent on weapon deliveries.

 

Edited April 20, 2023 by Vanir Ausf B

[Haiduk]

Russian milbloggers alarm that UKR forces already two week ago crossed Dnipro and seized positions in dachas on left bank oppose to Antonivka village (Antonivskyi bridge there), Kherson suburb - red square is as if UKR-controlled land. As if local Russian command didn't do anything to throw down UKR forces in the river, so Ukrainians almost without counter-actions can supply own bridgehead garrison by boats, also they actively use heavy dron-bomber, which bring many troubles. As if only now command noticed in time to organize counter-attack, but UKR already have there good positions, so they beg to drop in this place some guided bombs.

[Harmon Rabb]

Ukraine planned attacks on Russian forces in Syria, leaked document shows (The Washington Post)

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Ukrainians should start to erect road signs with Mi-24 along highways.

 

In Belgorod something exploded. Could be S-300 falling. Or giant mole.

 

Before this explosion in Russian TG there were anounced Russian jets with KAB-1500 are on route to bomb Ukraine. Maybe one bomb missed %) Though not enough damage around, but the bomb could went deep to the ground before to explode...

Here is street camera - on 0:07 whistle is heard and on 0:26 the sound of explosion

 

 

Edited April 20, 2023 by Haiduk