How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Another "Spring is Coming" video.  Most of the footage is pretty recent, but not all.  Good reminder, though incomplete, of what Ukraine has in its hands already.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/12p31fj/calm_before_the_storm/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

An article in FP Magazine that reminds me I should think about renewing my subscription.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/17/the-west-is-preparing-for-russias-disintegration/

If someone here has a paid account it would be great to have your take on what the article is about.  I'm curious to know if particular trigger points are discussed and other things like that.

Steve

[Kinophile]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

To be fair, I am sure Prig was thinking the same thing   Personally, I thought Prig had too much importance to just be snuffed out UNLESS he did something akin to a coup attempt.  The humbling he got was probably intended to head it off.

That said, I did not think Putin would turn the support tap on so quickly and suddenly.  My guess is Putin gave the MoD a little time to prove they could do what Prig couldn't, and that didn't work out so well.  Putin doesn't have many options, so the tap to Wagner was turned back on.

This gets back to discussions we've had since the war started.  Autocrats always need a force to keep the military in line.  Prig seems to be fulfilling that role so he likely stays as long as Putin stays.

Steve

Exactly. Putin needs a counter to every major player. 

Another thing I keep in mind is that Putin operates in a very filtered world. Prig was able to yell about capturing the admin building in Bahkmut, with photos of flags and guys standing in the ruins. MoD had nothing comparable.

My bet is that photos and looking at a map carry a lot of weight with an OG like Putin. Actually military analysis and understanding the tactical context is not something he does. So Priggy Boi had something "concrete" to point to, but  Gerasimov had Vuhledar hanging around his neck. One guy can squawk about "success" while the other can only keep shtumm.

[Kinophile]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another "Spring is Coming" video.  Most of the footage is pretty recent, but not all.  Good reminder, though incomplete, of what Ukraine has in its hands already.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/12p31fj/calm_before_the_storm/

Steve

Lots of good ground stuff, but man, the UAF is lagging behind.

I'd suspect Zaluzhni is waiting for the Patriots to be up and running before he attempts anything.

[Battlefront.com]

Yesterday or the day before I reposted video/images of Russia sending "Scooby Doo" vans into Ukraine.  Apparently Ukraine is already blowing them up:

 

[Ithikial_AU]

53 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

An article in FP Magazine that reminds me I should think about renewing my subscription.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/17/the-west-is-preparing-for-russias-disintegration/

If someone here has a paid account it would be great to have your take on what the article is about.  I'm curious to know if particular trigger points are discussed and other things like that.

Steve

Check your PMs.

[holoween]

8 hours ago, dan/california said:

I have this vision of several trainees digging latrines for an entire division. At least if they are driving them hard enough to break one they are really training.

With all im hearing from the training in germany it less them training hard rather than incompetence and lack of care.

[Kraft]

Drone video/interview with subtitles from a soldier who was shot 3 times during an assault on a Russian trench near Bakhmut

 

 

 

Edited April 18, 2023 by Kraft

[DesertFox]

4 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

In other words, it was two leopards mating and it went horribly wrong.   

Yep, something like that. The tank tilted and got his turret partly dislodged. That turret is weighing about 16tons. Also look at the damage of the smoke extractor, which is made from carbofibres.

[Yet]

4 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

 The rear deck of the backing up tank got under the barrel and the barrel acted like a massive pry bar, pulling the turret off to it current position.

In other words, it was two leopards mating and it went horribly wrong.   

Someone tell the UKies that this ritual doesnt work to make more tanks. 

[chuckdyke]

In nine months, the Germans have a cute little tank called the Lynx. 

[Tux]

18 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

In nine months, the Germans have a cute little tank called the Lynx. 

Let’s hope it has its mother’s turret. 

[JonS]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

That said, I did not think Putin would turn the support tap on so quickly and suddenly.  My guess is Putin gave the MoD a little time to prove they could do what Prig couldn't, and that didn't work out so well.  Putin doesn't have many options, so the tap to Wagner was turned back on.

From the RUSI doc by Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds, published last month:

Quote

Despite this tendency to revert under pressure to established forms and methods, there is considerable dynamism and entrepreneurialism among Russia’s special services. As demonstrated by Wagner or the restructuring of the GRU’s clandestine capabilities while in contact, the services are quick to seize on opportunities and have the policies and permissions to do so. This is exacerbated by the political dynamic behind their employment, which is perhaps best captured in Ian Kershaw’s phrase describing the animation of the Hitlerite state as ‘working towards the Fuhrer’.[118] The special services are encouraged to develop operations consistent with their understanding of Putin’s intent and, depending upon which is closest to his will and is more successful, there flows resource and attention. This kind of internal competition also allows Putin to reward or punish service chiefs and officials without their ever feeling truly secure. These dynamics make the special services highly active and willing to accept risk. It also distorts analysis, encouraging exaggeration of both their prospects in reporting and a catastrophism in ascribing failure to the scale of adversary efforts. It encourages blame shifting internally, limiting accurate after-action reviews. The upshot is that, while the Russian services may have failed in Ukraine, this is unlikely to prevent their being central to the coercive activities of the Russian state in the future, and countering them will remain no less important.

page 35
 

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

An article in FP Magazine that reminds me I should think about renewing my subscription.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/17/the-west-is-preparing-for-russias-disintegration/

If someone here has a paid account it would be great to have your take on what the article is about.  I'm curious to know if particular trigger points are discussed and other things like that.

Steve

Nothing we have not discussed here, in fact we could have probably written it.  Looks at both sides of a Russia post-war collapse.  One side argues that there is real risk in a nuclear armed fractured Russia.  Further some say the West should see it as opportunity to exploit, others as a nightmare security scenario.  Others point to the risk of another strongman replacing Putin who could ride a wave of populist nationalism to wonderful new crappiness.

My read is that “victory” means being able to engineer a defeat Russian can live with without totally overreacting one way or the other.  Tricky.

[Ales Dvorak]

14 hours ago, beardiebloke said:

Well it seems to start out just a little eccentric but gets progressively weirder.  The gist of it is that US/NATO pushed Ukraine into a ware with Russia so that they could use the crisis to accelerate digitisation of the UKR government and then use Google/Azure/Amazon tech to control the country.  Also that Covid wasn't really that bad and governments were scaremongering to control citizens.  Sure, UKR gov't uses cloud services but so do lots of companies and governments, that doesn't mean these tech giants cooperate to undermine democracy or that UKR is no longer sovereign as a result.  They also say that Zelensky banned all opposition parties, not just some Russian-linked ones.

I thought the presenter's style sounded a bit Tucker Carlson and guess what, he's an ex-Fox presenter and ex-real estate investor/promoter.  The channel even states that it's not presenting news but entertainment.

Beardiebloke, thanks for reply. ( I gave you like )

I noticed that conspiracy theory for one country may become truth for another. For example;"Also that Covid wasn't really that bad and governments were scaremongering to control citizens". In my country Covid was bad and our goverment scaremongering to control citizens. Trust me, been there, saw that. "The gist of it is that US/NATO pushed Ukraine into a ware with Russia so that they could use the crisis to accelerate digitisation of the UKR government and then use Google/Azure/Amazon tech to control the country". Yeah, it sounds crazy. But when I noticed Blackrock and Monsanto presence in Ukraine ,I not so sure anymore. Wasn't there a case when american company has big banana plantations (don't remember which country), but they have problem with authorities, so CIA made a little coup (maybe this was also a conspiracy theory). I know Zelensky banned Russian-linked parties, but yesterday I checked opposition parties in Ukraine and I couldn't find any solid information abut them ( I know, I'm lazy ).

My friend always says that 65% of conspiracy theory in the end become official theory.

(Sorry for my limited vocabulary)

 

Edited April 18, 2023 by Ales Dvorak

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:

Beardiebloke, thanks for reply. ( I gave you like )

I noticed that conspiracy theory for one country may become truth for another. For example;"Also that Covid wasn't really that bad and governments were scaremongering to control citizens". In my country Covid was bad and our goverment scaremongering to control citizens. Trust me, been there, saw that. "The gist of it is that US/NATO pushed Ukraine into a ware with Russia so that they could use the crisis to accelerate digitisation of the UKR government and then use Google/Azure/Amazon tech to control the country". Yeah, it sounds crazy. But when I noticed Blackrock and Monsanto presence in Ukraine ,I not so sure anymore. Wasn't there a case when american company has big banana plantations (don't remember which country), but they have problem with authorities, so CIA made a little coup (maybe this was also a conspiracy theory). I know Zelensky banned Russian-linked parties, but yesterday I checked opposition parties in Ukraine and I couldn't find any solid information abut them ( I know, I'm lazy ).

My friend always says that 65% of conspiracy theory in the end become official theory.

(Sorry for my limited vocabulary)

 

Not touching the COVID one.  However, it is really a bit of a myth that the US or any western nation has standing policies where the use of military conflict is considered a tool for economic expansion.  The famous action you are talking about was this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Fruit_Company

Which built on these:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_Wars

However these were 1) 80 years ago which in North American terms may as well have been the Middle Ages, 2) really did not turn out well as the next 80 years demonstrated in spades and 3) never were conducted on a nuclear superpowers doorstep…for very good reasons. During the Cold War a lot of proxy actions did happen but these were more about containment of the Soviet sphere of influence while outcompeting which was the US primary strategy…and it worked.

US reliance on contractors happens for many reasons but I have seen no proof that their “need for employment” is so influential that the US would start a war over them.  And before anyone brings up Iraq 03 - I call BS and Hollywood myth again. That whole mess along with Afghanistan did more harm than good to the US in the end. In fact China and Russia have better access to Iraqi oil now than they did 20 years ago.  I am sure Halliburton and Blackwater got well but the idea that they managed to convince US political leadership to conduct these ill-conceived ventures does not match up with the facts of the day.

The major problem we have with strategic narratives in countries with weaker democracies is that they tend to see US actions through their own lens.  As you note, your government did exploit misinformation and likely has levels of corruption. The US is not immune but the checks and balances of good old fashion bureaucracy are much tighter.  That and a free press (such as it is) makes engineering something like we have seen in Ukraine pretty hard and very risky.  Unfortunately the political divisions within the US are so stark right now that extreme ends of that spectrum will construct fantasies to explain reality to vilify the other side and justify their own.  

[kevinkin]

Wall Street Journal: Putin Makes Rare Trip to Russian-Occupied Areas of Ukraine
- Visit near the front lines comes as Kyiv gears up for offensive to drive back Moscow’s forces -

Nothing else new so I will add: Putin is so inspiring he would make the Kentucky Derby favorite run backwards the first Saturday in May. All the the while showing off their perfect metaphor for Vlad, a horses ***. 

[DesertFox]

32 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Wall Street Journal: Putin Makes Rare Trip to Russian-Occupied Areas of Ukraine

Which one of the several doubles made the trip?

[Ales Dvorak]

@The_Capt, thanks for Fruit Company link. Yes, you're right. ( Monsanto is a little different player )

I agree with what you wrote.

Except :"The major problem we have with strategic narratives in countries with weaker democracies is that they tend to see US actions through their own lens"

Sure, they see through their own lens, just like America sees from hers. Looks like  more America's problem (lens).

I noticed the lack of transparency is an early call for conspiracy.

Edited April 18, 2023 by Ales Dvorak

[kevinkin]

5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Which one of the several doubles made the trip?

The other one. 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Ales Dvorak said:

@The_Capt, thanks for Fruit Company link. Yes, you're right. ( Monsanto is a little different player )

I agree with what you wrote.

Except :"The major problem we have with strategic narratives in countries with weaker democracies is that they tend to see US actions through their own lens"

Sure, they see through their own lens, just like America sees from hers. Looks like  more America's problem (lens).

I noticed the lack of transparency is an early call for conspiracy.

The other big thing about this war is that no one thought it would go this way.  Even if Big Mil Contracting had the ability to stage such manoeuvres the community of expertise that could make a prediction that this war would turn out as it did, with high accuracy, is almost non-existent.  In fact, most of the experts - both mil and academic - were predicting a pretty short sharp  "Russian-win" affair and long insurgency; we definitely saw it through our own lens of experiences over the last 20 years.

So unless this profiteering cabal was somehow hooked into some serious counter-thinking, and were willing to bet the political capital they would need to spend on that, well the idea kind of falls apart.  It would have been an extremely high risk wager that Ukraine would somehow be a larger western market after a Russian intervention.  That gets pretty "out there" very fast.  I mean if a company has that level of accurate predictive analytics, why go through the bother of a war?  They basically could own any market they want already.

No, this was a sad scared little man with way too much power and no real feedback loops.  He decided that for "reasons" the time was right to show that he was a still a "big boy" and talked himself into a really bad plan - he has been "digging upward" ever since.  His military ran headlong into 21st century warfare, even though this is really a very early version of it, and got crushed pretty badly.  It is now all about simply trying to stay in power and staying alive.

No star chambers or CIA plots, just people doing "people".

[Haiduk]

Situation in Bakhmut

Last night and morning

Fierce fights on 1000 x 1000 m quadrate. Wagner all pulled to the center. They can't pass. It's not possible to shove endless number of troops in 1 km of front. Only, establishing reserves in close rear, being shelled by artillery. Northern and southern flanks without changes.

Mid day

We have stabilized railroad for now. The city is not encircled, we repelled them near Ivanivske and Khromove. Mother....rs ran down into the "Rose alley", but we knocked out them back, though they have there small gains. 

2 hours ago. 

Aviation, artillery of mother..rs is working heavy, they assault from the north very tough, all very hard.

 

Edited April 18, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Kinophile]

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Situation in Bakhmut

Last night and morning

Fierce fights on 1000 x 1000 m quadrate. Wagner all pulled to the center. They can't pass. It's not possible to shove endless number of troops in 1 km of front. Only, establishing reserves in close rear, being shelled by artillery. Northern and southern flanks without changes.

Mid day

We have stabilized railroad for now. The city is not encircled, we repelled them near Ivanivske and Khromove. Mother....rs ran down into the "Rose alley", but we knocked out them back, though they have there small gains. 

2 hours ago. 

Aviation, artillery of mother..rs is working heavy, they assault from the north very tough, all very hard.

 

Really sounds like the Ivan is going all in.  They smell victory. 

That's ok,  because they're now burning through the VDV-alt troops. 

[Ales Dvorak]

36 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The other big thing about this war is that no one thought it would go this way.  Even if Big Mil Contracting had the ability to stage such manoeuvres the community of expertise that could make a prediction that this war would turn out as it did, with high accuracy, is almost non-existent.  In fact, most of the experts - both mil and academic - were predicting a pretty short sharp  "Russian-win" affair and long insurgency; we definitely saw it through our own lens of experiences over the last 20 years.

So unless this profiteering cabal was somehow hooked into some serious counter-thinking, and were willing to bet the political capital they would need to spend on that, well the idea kind of falls apart.  It would have been an extremely high risk wager that Ukraine would somehow be a larger western market after a Russian intervention.  That gets pretty "out there" very fast.  I mean if a company has that level of accurate predictive analytics, why go through the bother of a war?  They basically could own any market they want already.

No, this was a sad scared little man with way too much power and no real feedback loops.  He decided that for "reasons" the time was right to show that he was a still a "big boy" and talked himself into a really bad plan - he has been "digging upward" ever since.  His military ran headlong into 21st century warfare, even though this is really a very early version of it, and got crushed pretty badly.  It is now all about simply trying to stay in power and staying alive.

No star chambers or CIA plots, just people doing "people".

I don't want to derail this thread, so I send you p.m.