How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Yet]

53 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I think they both might be right.  And they both sound a lot smarter than we were back in the day.  Good gawd we were a lost generation back in the 80s.

there are always people that care about others/the world and the ones that care about themselves. It frightens me that a generation of the ones that care about themselves works in finance, it scares me to hell when they start to work in tech and silicon valley. I get horrified and actually start to loose hope when these start to work at farms.

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Renewed rumblings within Europe over commitment to Ukraine:

https://news.usni.org/2023/04/14/france-germany-not-doing-enough-to-support-ukraine-says-polands-pm?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

Morawiecki called the relationship between Moscow and Beijing “the key to the future of the world” because both are aggressively warring or threatening their neighbors if they don’t meet their demands on territory and trade.

China steps in and we have all the makings of a Global proxy war centered in eastern Ukraine. And Macron didn't scare anyone. 

Meanwhile Morawiecki called upon the United States to unveil a new Marshall Plan for Ukraine and for Europe to reaffirm its commitment and foster closer relations economically and militarily as Washington did after World War II in Europe.

Poland is spending 4 percent of its gross domestic product on security, modernizing its forces with M1A1 tanks, ordering F-35 Lightning II Strike Fighters and hosting U.S. F-22s, positioning air defense and long-range rocket artillery systems, Morawiecki said. It has also established a garrison post for rotating American forces.

Warsaw is also crossing over to nuclear energy to further distance itself from dependence on Moscow for natural gas and petroleum To modernize its digital infrastructure, Poland is working with Microsoft and Google, Morawiecki said.

Not surprising Poland would love to be the major benefIactor of this new new "Marshall Plan".

After two or three decades in the sandbox with no booze, I can only imagine how happy a bunch of grizzled sergeants are to be stationed somewhere with the amenities Poland has.

[Beleg85]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

After two or three decades in the sandbox with no booze, I can only imagine how happy a bunch of grizzled sergeants are to be stationed somewhere with the amenities Poland has.

This is all part of PiS campaign rhetoric, don't take all of this too seriously, especially grandour narrations of "New Marshall plan", "PL-UA Union" etc. This is the same bonkers as Macron's "Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok", Scholz "Zeitenwende" and similar. Politicians playing their dirty games to score some domestic points or pretending to formulate some kind of coherent vision, they are everywhere roughly the same.

Elections are in November, but already campaign is in full swing, very dirty and brutal. Especially close to finish we can witness increased Russian infuence, too; for example lately main military commentators noticed they are subject of very vigorous attacks by what looks like entire trolls farms. Expect scandals, more leaks of documents, bots working heavily on social division etc. It's already very bad in this respect and every month it gets worse.

[Fenris]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

First Ukrainian Leopard tango down...fortunatelly, on training grounds only- reportedly crew got unharmed. What caused this is subject of debates, perhaps somebody tried  to push ERA bricks too forcefully .

 

 

Looking at the visible damage, did the barrel collide with another vehicle?

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

First Ukrainian Leopard tango down...fortunatelly, on training grounds only- reportedly crew got unharmed. What caused this is subject of debates, perhaps somebody tried  to push ERA bricks too forcefully .

 

Oh dear, this is not from explosive damage as far a I can see.  Collision and maybe a partial flip.  One helluva on to knock that turret up and out.  Back to 4th line likely.  Going to happen, especially with new trainees on a compressed timeline.  Luckily no one got killed

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Oh dear, this is not from explosive damage as far a I can see.  Collision and maybe a partial flip.  One helluva on to knock that turret up and out.  Back to 4th line likely.  Going to happen, especially with new trainees on a compressed timeline.  Luckily no one got killed

I have this vision of several trainees digging latrines for an entire division. At least if they are driving them hard enough to break one they are really training.

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

youngsters!  Why when they rolled out the horseless carriage, I warned folks of the evil of climate change and vehicle exhaust but would anyone listen to me?!  Noooo they just said my horse Rusty was a worse polluter than their car!

Why, next you know, they’ll be claiming MOON landings! And forcing Chuck Berry on us, on the telly thing. Let alone Lordy Lordy & God Save the Queen, Little Richard!!

 

[quakerparrot67]

4 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Why, next you know, they’ll be claiming MOON landings! And forcing Chuck Berry on us, on the telly thing. Let alone Lordy Lordy & God Save the Queen, Little Richard!!

 

i believe that's one queen who was saved, at least at times....lol. no judgement or negatives, i just always thought he was a true original.

 

cheers,

rob

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by quakerparrot67

[paxromana]

6 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Not surprising Poland would love to be the major benefactor of this new new "Marshall Plan".

Spend a buck (with the US) to get a buck ...

The Poles are demonstrating a 'can do' attitude unlike Germany's 'can't do' and France's 'don't wanna do ...'

(Yes, I know ... somewhat unfair, but perceptions are what perceptions are and Scholz and Macron haven't [and aren't] doing their countries any favours ... heck, here in Australia our government has been more openly supportive in many ways\ ... and we really don't have any skin in the game to the extent they do.)

Edited April 17, 2023 by paxromana

[Vet 0369]

On 4/15/2023 at 11:48 PM, sburke said:

Yeah but I still don't think they will.

One never knows what they will or won’t do. When you kick a pile of garbage, you don’t know what might hiding in it, and what might come scrambling out. This young airman undoubtably has Senior NCOs and Officers above him, and at least in the U.S.M.C., the ranking NCOs and Officers can be held responsible for their subordinates actions where or not they are there with them.

[kevinkin]

4 hours ago, JonS said:

Maybe Poland could stop huffing all that sweet sweet Russian gas first?

And then be the benefactors of comparatively higher growth in eastern Europe? So be it. 

"Warsaw is also crossing over to nuclear energy to further distance itself from dependence on Moscow for natural gas and petroleum"

Only time will tell. Maybe it's just positioning. Anyway, Poland does not want to remain a buffer for the rest NATO forever. And I don't see any pushback from Germany or France on those recent statements by Morawiecki. 

 

[Vet 0369]

On 4/16/2023 at 6:50 AM, Ultradave said:

My dept. manager had to certify I needed access and include the letter (e-mail) appointing me to the review team. Legitimate need for access, and I had more than enough security clearance, just until then, did not have the need-to-know.

This is how it's SUPPOSED to work. IMO something at that ANG organization is quite lax and I would guess that's being looked into. We aren't the only ones realizing this.

 

 

This!!! I held security clearances at two major Corporations that made aircraft /engines for the U.S. Military. At one plant, the color of the numbers on your badge designated your clearance (white being no clearance). If you were caught in a secure area for which you didn’t have the required clearance, you and the supervisor of that area were fired on the spot. I also held a clearance while I worked for the FAA, but never saw a document for which I didn’t have the need to know.

[Vanir Ausf B]

 

[Butschi]

46 minutes ago, paxromana said:

Spend a buck (with the US) to get a buck ...

The Poles are demonstrating a 'can do' attitude unlike Germany's 'can't do' and France's 'don't wanna do ...'

(Yes, I know ... somewhat unfair, but perceptions are what perceptions are and Scholz and Macron haven't [and aren't] doing their countries any favours ... heck, here in Australia our government has been more openly supportive in many ways\ ... and we really don't have any skin in the game to the extent they do.)

There is so much going the wrong way in Germany that I don't even know where to begin and indeed finding reasons why we can't do something is quite popular these days - military spending is really the least of my worries.

But since we are being somewhat unfair: It is easy to demonstrate a 'can do' attitude when you blame everything you 'can't do' on someone else and the things you 'can do' is in no small part actually paid by (that same) someone else...

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

Looking at the visible damage, did the barrel collide with another vehicle?

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Oh dear, this is not from explosive damage as far a I can see.  Collision and maybe a partial flip.  One helluva on to knock that turret up and out.  Back to 4th line likely.  Going to happen, especially with new trainees on a compressed timeline.  Luckily no one got killed

No comments from officials, just pictures appeared from some training grounds. It was definitelly no explosion and ground on the poligon seems rather levelled. Otherwise, rumours are training of Ukrainian crews on Leos went rather smooth, but it could be official version.

[Gpig]

In the pics You can see the dirt tracks left behind from some other tracked vehicle on the top deck of the front hull of the damaged tank. Something rolled right up and knocked into the turret

 

barrel was likely impacted in that same collision 

Edited April 18, 2023 by Gpig

[Beleg85]

Small riverine boat this time stuck by bloody Lancet, could be older video as reportedly place is far from frontlines.

10 minutes ago, Gpig said:

n the pics You can see the dirt tracks left behind from some other tracked vehicle on the top deck of the front hull of the damaged tank. Something rolled right up and knocked into the turret

 

barrel was likely impacted in that same collision

Tomorrow perhaps we will know more details. At least they have occassion to train vehicle evacuation. Terrain on this poligon is very flat, so it must have been mighty crash.

[Vet 0369]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Since Vet 0369 is obviously just catching up, I'll restate that we're trying to move on from the security stuff.

Steve

Yes Sir! You are absolutely correct. You know us old folks are a lot slower than you young whippersnappers!

[Battlefront.com]

We have lots of traditions here.  One is bashing Germany for not doing the right thing, the other is reminding us of how dangerous it is to smoke in Russia.  Since we've already gotten today's German tradition out of the way, I bring you the other one:

(you Germans know I kid out of love )

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

ISW report for April 17th spent the first section focused mostly on Prig apparently getting backing from Putin to reverse the MoD's sabotage of Wagner.  This includes getting VDV to support it, allowing Wagner to create "3 Brigades" of mobiks to command, and getting artillery ammo that had recently been throttled.

This flip-flopping infighting is a typical part of an autocratic system of government and does not necessarily signal anything out of the ordinary.  Putin may have even authorized the actions against Prig in an attempt to humble him a bit, then ended the treatment when he felt mission accomplished.

Steve

[BlackMoria]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Oh dear, this is not from explosive damage as far a I can see.  Collision and maybe a partial flip.  One helluva on to knock that turret up and out.  Back to 4th line likely.  Going to happen, especially with new trainees on a compressed timeline.  Luckily no one got killed

It looks like, from the dirt with a track pattern on it on the fore deck of the damaged tank, that another tank back into this vehicle, treads gained purchase and it back up onto the front deck of the damaged tank.  The rear deck of the backing up tank got under the barrel and the barrel acted like a massive pry bar, pulling the turret off to it current position.

In other words, it was two leopards mating and it went horribly wrong.   

Edited April 18, 2023 by BlackMoria

[Kinophile]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

ISW report for April 17th spent the first section focused mostly on Prig apparently getting backing from Putin to reverse the MoD's sabotage of Wagner.  This includes getting VDV to support it, allowing Wagner to create "3 Brigades" of mobiks to command, and getting artillery ammo that had recently been throttled.

This flip-flopping infighting is a typical part of an autocratic system of government and does not necessarily signal anything out of the ordinary.  Putin may have even authorized the actions against Prig in an attempt to humble him a bit, then ended the treatment when he felt mission accomplished.

Steve

I seem to remember a whole posse of posters saying Prig was a gonner, stick a fork in 'em and flip him over, he's done...  

Just teasing, the Prig deserves a long painful death. But a cunning little **** like him doesn't get to where he is and get taken down by the Russian MoD, of all people. 

Edited April 18, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

19 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

It looks like, from the dirt with a track pattern on it on the fore deck of the damaged tank, that another tank back into this vehicle, treads gained purchase and it back up onto the front deck of the damaged tank.  The rear deck of the backing up tank got under the barrel and the barrel acted like a massive pry bar, pulling the turret off to it current position.

In other words, it was two leopards mating and it went horribly wrong.   

Yah that's what I read yesterday. One tank drove onto another. Holy crap the crew in the victim tank must have completely brownied their shorts, lol

[MeatEtr]

37 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

In other words, it was two leopards mating and it went horribly wrong.   

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I seem to remember a whole posse of posters saying Prig was a gonner, stick a fork in 'em and flip him over, he's done...

To be fair, I am sure Prig was thinking the same thing   Personally, I thought Prig had too much importance to just be snuffed out UNLESS he did something akin to a coup attempt.  The humbling he got was probably intended to head it off.

That said, I did not think Putin would turn the support tap on so quickly and suddenly.  My guess is Putin gave the MoD a little time to prove they could do what Prig couldn't, and that didn't work out so well.  Putin doesn't have many options, so the tap to Wagner was turned back on.

This gets back to discussions we've had since the war started.  Autocrats always need a force to keep the military in line.  Prig seems to be fulfilling that role so he likely stays as long as Putin stays.

Steve