How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

So, what we expected...is happening. ERA bricks are start to be seen as buff to Leo's armours. I am curious if they use it for other vehicles as well.

2 hours ago, Seminole said:

think Smedley Butler had it right, in that you could stop war if capital was subject to conscription.  If the oligarchs in any society saw their wealth subject to immediate confiscation and liquidation to fund the war we'd probably find a different way to solve most problems we try to solve with bombs today.

But I think there's no chance of seeing this implemented (at home, or anywhere abroad).

Butler could have it partially right only in his very, very narrow viewpoint of living in US in its imperial phase of very late XIX/early XX cent.. But overall limiting such inherently human endevour as warfare to wims of some "oligarchs" (term never sufficenty explained and extremely malleable, depending whom you ask, btw.) is completely ahistoric. There were, and are, numerous examples of elites investing-and loosing-  literally everything in war they threw their lots in. Organized violence, sometimes in quite sophisticated forms, was part of societal fabric long before "oligarchs" or "capital" started to appear in human societies (or any form of complex social stratification, for that matter). Quite possibly before even homo sapiens  got its shapes. Sorry, as much as I disagree with V.D. Hanson on most topics, he is right that war is "father of us all"- it was always there.

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Melitopol hit by something,

Power substation also was hit in railway depo area. Most part of Melitopol and several villages around were without electricity. I don't know what is situation now.

On LostArmor local collaborant from Melitopol writes about 12 impacts. Likely two packets of HIMARS. 

 

[Haiduk]

Some UKR mech.brigade somewere... No western vehicles, though.

 

Edited March 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, akd said:

TOW Bunker Buster RF in Ukraine:

 

I think we can be pretty sure the timing of delivering these TOWs is not coincidental   These will be very useful tackling Russian prefab bunkers.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Very rare Russian armored utility vehcile GAZ-3937 "Vodnik" - only 54 in service of Rosgvardiya. One was captured and now in UKR service. 

This vehicle was designed for transportation of personnel, ammunition, fuel, military cargo in hard terrain conditions. 

[Haiduk]

Probably on 25th of March UKR troops of 110th mech.brigade repelled Russian assault of recon company of 10th tank regiment (I dunno either this some Russian territorial troops unit or renamed unit of DPR forces) and conducted own counter-attack, seizing lost UKR positions near Spartak settlement south from Avdiivka. Later Russians wrote all their attempts to push off Ukrainians back failed. 

 Two videos of this fight:

Russian tank was hit by Javelin (?)

Russian armor attack and seizing of Russian trenches (video speed up)

[Battlefront.com]

13 hours ago, Ithikial_AU said:

It's always been questionable in my mind that some economists and commentators reckon that globalisation is a force that prevents war. It adds a layer to the decision making but trade as an absolute block on major powers not going into conflict due to economic loss? Seems like economic study/dark arts trying rationalise human decision making, that wealth is all that matters to everybody, especially at a time of violent crisis?

If I cast my mind back to my Uni days about 20 years ago (I'm old now), you have three primary causes for conflict to break out:

- Nationalism / Territorial - "I disagree with you owning that piece of land"

- Ideological - "I disagree with the way you think and do things"

- Ethnic - "I disagree with your religion, language, upbringing, race... I disagree with who you are."

The idea was conflict in 19th and early 20th century was primarily driven by the first point. This switched over to ideological in the run up to WW2 and the Cold War. The post Cold War era has been focused more on Ethnic issues driving conflicts. Now they are generalisations and it's pretty easy to argue that for many conflicts there are more than one driver in play or one is in play while others are used as political smoke screen by political elites to justify entering a conflict. Not to mention outliers or the belligerent sides having different perceptions on what is driving the conflict.

There was no reason not to think ethnic driven issues would continue to be the primary driver most conflict into the 2020's but I think the dangling of the idea of USA pullback/isolationism during the Trump years emboldened a bunch of other global players to start pushing against the west as the 'world cop' was potentially off the beat. Nationalism and Ideology (latter a smokescreen?) have been able to pop up again as a result. If we find ourselves in another 1939 situation but this time the world opts to let it happen because, "we want our trade numbers to stay strong", I think is a bigger cross against humanity and our political systems. The fallout of not responding to unwarranted aggression is also likely to have a bigger impact on global stability.

Mark Twain may have been right all along... "The more I learn about people, the more I like my dog."

I was driving around today after reading your post and I listened to a good report on the deepening economic relationship between the US and Vietnam.  China was mentioned explicitly several times, with Vietnam trying to keep as low a profile as possible so as to not ratchet up problems with their massive neighbor.

The combination of these things got me thinking that people are wrong to look at the influence of economic ties in a binary way.  Like so many things the two extremes exist, but there's a lot inbetween.  In this case I think the influence of economic relationships between autocratic and democratic countries softens the positions and policies of both sides.  Communist China has moderated a lot of its bad policies because they realize it's good for business by the elites, while in the West good policies towards Human Rights and regional stability are weakened because they are deemed good for business by the elites.  The deeming modification of behavior patterns as an across the board failure is, therefore, overly simplistic.

What I think we can conclude is that trade between the two extremes has some natural limits for both sides.  The autocracies will avoid things that fundamentally threaten their power, the democracies will put their foot down if their own interests are overtly threatened.

A reasonable conclusion, therefore, is that trade alone will not convert a nation from one political extreme to the other.  Each will compromise only as much as needed to get financial rewards.  Therefore, if the goal is to moderate bad behavior then trade can be a good way to do that.  To go further than that requires a population that is vocally in support of change.  Most of the former Warsaw Pact countries can attest to this.

Russia's big mistake was thinking that trade with the West would fundamentally change the West's ideals and tolerance to bad behavior.  For sure Russia was able to weaken the West's resolve to challenge its bad behavior, but it pushed too hard and found out that it didn't weaken it nearly enough to matter.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Despite General Staff reported the number of enemy attacks is reducing and was 57 for last day, but in Bakhmut Russians continue own desperate assaults and even increased number of artillery fire. So all talks about "shell hunger" is BS, PsyOps of some inner political tensions. Soldiers say Wagners increased number of own "core" troops in assaults

According to today evening report of General Staff, Russians again had "partial success" on Bakhmut direction 

Edited March 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

New ATGM in UKR service. Silent support of Sweden.

PS. This system is out of service in Sveden since 2013. Wire-controlled missiile with magnetic and optical sensors. Tandem warhead, activating on 1 m aboove the target and striking hollow charge stream under angle of 30 degrees, so the stream need shorter way to penetrate glacis armor. Estimate penetration beyond ERA is about 550 mm 

 

Edited March 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Despite General Staff reported the number of enemy attacks is reducing and was 57 for last day, but in Bakhmut Russians continue own desperate assaults and even increased number of artillery fire. So all talks about "shell hunger" is BS, PsyOps of some inner political tensions. Soldiers say Wagners increased number of own "core" troops in assaults

According to today evening report of General Staff, Russians again had "partial success" on Bakhmut direction 

I think there is enough evidence to support the position that Russia is suffering shell shortages relative to last year.  However, that means very little for any one sector of front.

A good analogy of this is the various shortages the Germans experienced as the war came to an end.  Fuel, ammo of all types, small arms, vehicles, etc.  In one sector the Allies might meet up with a bunch of kids with little more than outdated captured weapons and a couple of rounds of ammunition, but on another sector run into veteran troops armed with the full array of top line combined arms.  Someone facing the latter might call "BS" on intel reports that the German war machine was crumbling, but that would be incorrect.

What I think we are having trouble with right now is determining how broad the Russian shortages are.  It is still very unclear even if it is clear that they've shot through much of what they started the war with and production will not keep up with demand.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

But those WMDs still belong to Russia, or is this guy admitting that Belarus is no longer a sovereign state?

By this logic Turkey and Italy are also nuclear powers.

Edited March 29, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[kevinkin]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

What I think we are having trouble with right now is determining how broad the Russian shortages are.

That might be one of the initial goals of the coming UA offensive. Recon, not just by outgoing fire, but also by observing incoming fire - its type and volume. The ideal strategic direction might be well covered leaving other less juicy directions open for exploitation. But that's OK.  "You can't always get what you want But if you try sometime you'll find You get what you need."

Edited March 29, 2023 by kevinkin

[Seminole]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Butler could have it partially right only in his very, very narrow viewpoint of living in US in its imperial phase of very late XIX/early XX cent..

I’d argue America is still in an ‘imperial phase’.  I’m not sure when you’d consider it to have ended.  
It’s nakedly acknowledged that the US still acts as a hegemon with NATO providing the imprimatur of ‘international assent’ for domestic consumption.  
It’s why a ‘defensive alliance’ is leveraged to compel an ethnic partition (Kosovo) or regime change (Libya).  

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

But overall limiting such inherently human endevour as warfare to wims of some "oligarchs" (term never sufficenty explained and extremely malleable, depending whom you ask, btw.) is completely ahistoric.

I’m using oligarch in the dictionary definition sense:

a very rich business leader with a great deal of political influence

Historically, I’m not sure there has been something like our modern billionaire class that didn’t operate directly from the halls of power already.  It takes vast wealth to create a disparity of this scale.  
Did the Patricians of Rome enjoy the proportionate share of wealth that the elite today control?  My gut leans toward ‘no’, but I don’t pretend to know.  
 

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

There were, and are, numerous examples of elites investing-and loosing-  literally everything in war they threw their lots in. Organized violence, sometimes in quite sophisticated forms, was part of societal fabric long before "oligarchs" or "capital" started to appear in human societies (or any form of complex social stratification, for that matter). Quite possibly before even homo sapiens  got its shapes. Sorry, as much as I disagree with V.D. Hanson on most topics, he is right that war is "father of us all"- it was always there.

Agree we’re more like Chimps than Bonobos when it comes to conflict.  Shame really, Bonobos seem to have it figured out…

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Among the other tasks that Major General Kulinich is alleged to have received from the FSB through Sivkovich was to exert influence on the higher political leadership of Ukraine to convince it of the need to abandon the course of joining NATO and to adopt a neutral status just prior to the invasion.30 Refusal to join NATO, according to the Russian special services’ plan, along with other Ukrainian concessions to Russia, should have been the impetus for anti-government protests, similar to the Revolution of Dignity in 2014, when President Yanukovych refused to integrate Ukraine into the EU. Mass protests were intended to simplify the task of the Russian special services to destabilise Ukraine internally and paralyse the system of state and military administration, providing the conditions for a Russian military invasion.

https://static.rusi.org/202303-SR-Unconventional-Operations-Russo-Ukrainian-War-web-final.pdf.pdf  (pg 9).  So when your opponent is working this hard to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and EU...we should probably do exactly that.  Further this piece is presenting a lot of evidence that Russia was going to do this thing one way or the other.  Once does not defensively build decades old networks and cells aimed at the level of general political buggery happening here - and even if it could be sold as defensive, one normally waits for an actual crisis before pulling the trigger, not a Tues in Feb because "reasons".

It has been widely understood on the the thread that the invasion was designed to support a coup, as opposed to being a fully formed military operation of its own. What the report makes clear is that coup had failed, or at least was nowhere close to succeeding, and the Russians launched the invasion anyway. They have been doubling down on failure ever since. 

[Vanir Ausf B]

I don't make much of it but I do wonder what he's referring to.

________

Ukrainian soldiers have received training in the U.S. since January on how to use the Patriot system, but it hasn’t yet been deployed in Ukraine.

Ukraine needs 20 Patriot batteries to protect against Russian missiles, and even that may not be enough “as no country in the world was attacked with so many ballistic rockets,” Zelenskyy said.

Zelenskyy added that a European nation sent another air defense system to Ukraine, but it didn’t work and they “had to change it again and again.” He did not name the country.

________

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-zelenskyy-russia-putin-war-78f55fbf4fb7e57711c2fadaf914fd45

[kevinkin]

A brief and interesting read. Russia losing its touch everywhere:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/he-came-to-dc-as-a-brazilian-student-the-us-says-he-was-a-russian-spy/ar-AA19cK0x

The revelations have also exposed serious lapses in Russian tradecraft. Authorities have mined Cherkasov’s computer and other devices and found a trove of evidence, according to court records and security officials, including emails to his Russian handlers, details about “dead drops” where messages could be left, records of illicit money transfers, and an error-strewn personal history that he appears to have composed while trying to memorize details of his fictitious life.

His arrest last April came at the outset of an ongoing roll-up of Russian intelligence networks across Europe, a crackdown launched after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that officials say has inflicted greater damage on Kremlin spy agencies than any other effort since the end of the Cold War.

Not sure what the writer is basing that opinion on. Let's hope it's not wishful thinking. But it does make sense the the west would go on the offensive behind the scenes. 

Edited March 29, 2023 by kevinkin

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Seminole said:

I’d argue America is still in an ‘imperial phase’.  I’m not sure when you’d consider it to have ended.  

Butler was specific about phase of aggressive interventions in South America, if I recall. It is ugly, but only part of US hegemonic legacy. This thinking applied consequently goes to US isolationism, which would lead to tragedy of the world order. There are other imperialistic countries waiting to unleash their ambitions (if one call America imperialistic, which is highly debatable) and all of them are much, much worse option.

I assume you prefer Putin massacring Ukrainians, Kosovian Albanians to be ethnically cleansed en masse or- again applying this thinking consequently- certain moustached Austrian geting his highway to Danzig? Well, sorry mate, I don't buy this mentality. There are cold-hearted bastards in this world that will kill millions if Western countries show slightest signs of weakening or appeasment, and that's why pacifism is immoral in the end.

2 hours ago, Seminole said:

Historically, I’m not sure there has been something like our modern billionaire class that didn’t operate directly from the halls of power already.  It takes vast wealth to create a disparity of this scale.  
Did the Patricians of Rome enjoy the proportionate share of wealth that the elite today control?  My gut leans toward ‘no’, but I don’t pretend to know.  

Difficult to compare, there was no globalization then. It depends when. Roman Republic was highly oligarchic, but this was political oligarchy, rather inclusive on standards of the time. In First Punic War and during Second it literally ruined itself to field ships, equipment, recruits etc. The same was for classical Athens (who financed those trieras that beat Persians at Salamina?), Carthage, and many other ancient state structures.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/euergetism

Participation in political decision-making (and subsequent responsibility) was always cornerstone of values of ancient Mediterranean civic elites, to some extent only broken by adoption of Christianity. Our post-enlightment state structres are also generally builded similarly, but on very different scale. There is a lot of inequalities and very concerning processess in global economies, but in the end political power prevails over financial one. This war proves that, among other things- I am certain there was a hell lot of squeal in those tall towers in business centers around the globe on 24.II.2022, but ultimately they seem to get in line when Big Brother "asks". As it should be.

2 hours ago, Seminole said:

Agree we’re more like Chimps than Bonobos when it comes to conflict.  Shame really, Bonobos seem to have it figured out…

Yup, evolutionary sophistication comes with hell lot of footnotes.

Edited March 29, 2023 by Beleg85

[chuckdyke]

The truth is about every country had their being a**h*le eras. The next a**h*le use it as an excuse for being an a**h*le.

[Battlefront.com]

Article on new Ukrainian UAV Strike Companies:

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/first-uav-strike-companies-established-in-armed-forces/

Quote

The project is distinguished by a completely new approach to the management, training and doctrine of the use of drones.

Well, that will be interesting to pick apart once it there's enough OSINT to dig into  

Steve

[Ithikial_AU]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I was driving around today after reading your post and I listened to a good report on the deepening economic relationship between the US and Vietnam.  China was mentioned explicitly several times, with Vietnam trying to keep as low a profile as possible so as to not ratchet up problems with their massive neighbor.

The combination of these things got me thinking that people are wrong to look at the influence of economic ties in a binary way.  Like so many things the two extremes exist, but there's a lot inbetween.  In this case I think the influence of economic relationships between autocratic and democratic countries softens the positions and policies of both sides.  Communist China has moderated a lot of its bad policies because they realize it's good for business by the elites, while in the West good policies towards Human Rights and regional stability are weakened because they are deemed good for business by the elites.  The deeming modification of behavior patterns as an across the board failure is, therefore, overly simplistic.

What I think we can conclude is that trade between the two extremes has some natural limits for both sides.  The autocracies will avoid things that fundamentally threaten their power, the democracies will put their foot down if their own interests are overtly threatened.

Agreed. It does mean there's more complexity and things to think about before pushing the button but it's never a full preventative measure. Countries will know they will lose out economically at different times based on the circumstances they are presented with, but they take courses of action anyway whether it is going to war or responding to pandemic.

The question is where is that line and are there multiple lines depending on the assessed severity of an action and longer term ramifications. Historically and reinforced more recently with Ukraine, the open defiance of sovereign borders still appears to be a line most of the world won't tolerate and will do something in response regardless of economic and trade impact. That something may vary however.

Side note: Who is Taiwan's biggest trading partner? China. China also exports a lot to Taiwan. Is this going to stop them possibly going to war if China decides it's in their interest to bring the wayward province 'back into line'? Wouldn't think so. One thing about markets is they tend to spring back after any market driven or political action downturn. Again... post pandemic. Money will find it's way into every crevice of an economy hunting value - even after wars.

As for China and Vietnam... GMT's Next War: Vietnam is still a hex based wargame on my to do list.  

[FancyCat]

This is in response to awareness to that Pavel Filatyev, a paratrooper who fled to France with Gulagu’s assistance, was aware of Russian war crimes, yet did not include it in his book, nor mention it to the organization.

 

[Thomm]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Article on new Ukrainian UAV Strike Companies:

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/first-uav-strike-companies-established-in-armed-forces/

Well, that will be interesting to pick apart once it there's enough OSINT to dig into  

Steve

The key question is:
Do you intend to add drones as 3D objects to the CM world?

In other words, without abstractions?

If yes, how will the current LOS system support them?

If no, will dropped grenades just spawn in the middle of the air?

I am curious how you will handle this!

[kraze]

8 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

The truth is about every country had their being a**h*le eras. The next a**h*le use it as an excuse for being an a**h*le.

russian era has not taken a breather since they were first formed as Golden Horde's ulus

[Anon052]

A story on how some officers in the russian army treat their own female medics.  What a disgrace.  Hope this will  seriously impede the flow of new medics into the army and be a factor that helps with a systemic collapse.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-officers-used-female-medics-as-sex-slaves-solider-says-2023-3

Edited March 30, 2023 by Anon052

[paxromana]

20 minutes ago, Anon052 said:

A story on how some officers in the russian army treat their own female medics.  What a disgrace.  Hope this will  seriously impede the flow of new medics into the army and be a factor that helps with a systemic collapse.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-officers-used-female-medics-as-sex-slaves-solider-says-2023-3

As I understand it this has always been the case since at least WW2 and probably even WW1 and under the Tsars