How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[TheVulture]

BBC report of interview Zelensky has given to a Japanese newspaper: No Ukraine offensive without more weapons – Zelensky. As always, it's open season on guessing how much of this is true, how much deliberate misinformation, and who it is aimed at.

Quote

President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Ukraine's counter-offensive against Russia cannot start until Western allies send more military support.

He told a Japanese newspaper he would not send his troops to the frontlines without more tanks, artillery and Himars rocket launchers.

In an interview with Yomiuri Shimbun, he said the situation in eastern Ukraine was "not good".

"We are waiting for ammunition to arrive from our partners," he said.

And when asked about the expected counter-offensive, he said: "We can't start yet, we can't send our brave soldiers to the front line without tanks, artillery and long-range rockets."

He added: "If you have the political will, you can find a way to help us. We are at war and can't wait."

There has been talk for some weeks of Ukraine launching a spring offensive against Russian forces. Ukrainian commanders have hinted it might be imminent. Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine's ground forces, said this week it might come "very soon".

Some analysts say Ukraine's military is talking up the idea of a counter-offensive to discomfit their Russian counterparts. They want Russian commanders to spread their forces thinly along the front lines, ready for any attack, rather than concentrate them in particular places, such as the eastern city of Bakhmut.

Other analysts believe a counter-offensive is possible soon. A US-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War, last week suggested that Russia's own offensive was potentially losing momentum and concluded: "Ukraine is therefore well positioned to regain the initiative and launch counter-offensives in critical sectors of the current frontline."

But President Zelensky is more pessimistic. He has often warned that the war could drag on for years unless Western allies speeded up the delivery of weapons. But this is the first time he has actually said the counter-offensive itself might be delayed by the lack of Western equipment.

His remarks reflect not only his desire to encourage more speed, but also his frustration at what he sees as the lack of haste.

Ukraine's allies have promised more tanks, artillery and longer-range missile systems. But some countries are struggling to deliver what they pledged, while others are taking more time than expected to get the equipment to Ukraine.

Western officials say military support is arriving, but admit training and planning is taking time. They also point to other factors such as muddy terrain making it hard for any army to start manoeuvring easily and break through frontlines.

Such is the speculation about Ukraine's counter-offensive - in particular, when and where it might come - that the defence ministry has urged people to stop discussing potential plans.

Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar claimed on social media that only three people had the right to disclose military plans publicly - the president, the minister of defence, and the commander in chief.

"All others can only quote them," she wrote. "Please stop asking experts questions about a counter-offensive on the air, please stop writing blogs and posts on this topic, please stop publicly discussing the military plans of our army."

 

[dan/california]

42 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

BBC report of interview Zelensky has given to a Japanese newspaper: No Ukraine offensive without more weapons – Zelensky. As always, it's open season on guessing how much of this is true, how much deliberate misinformation, and who it is aimed at.

 

The only thing I am sure of is that he ground isn't dry yet. Beyond that there is proof that Ukraine and its backers will try to disguise what is going on, as they should.

[danfrodo]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The only thing I am sure of is that he ground isn't dry yet. Beyond that there is proof that Ukraine and its backers will try to disguise what is going on, as they should.

I suspect UKR will be putting out lots of messages, but will start to coalesce around some main theme.  Lots of noise outside the theme in order to keep RU guessing.  But RU won't know if the main theme is real or a feint and UKR will probably have flexible plan to attack where RU doesn't expect.  I still suspect UKR will try to get RU reserves to the far left or right of the front and then attack other extreme.

[Seedorf81]

Don't know if this has been mentioned earlier, but..

 

Dutch national newssite just now:

Putin will deploy tactical nukes in Belarussia. Storagefacility should be ready 1st of July.

(He said it in tv-interview on Belarussian state tv.)

Edited March 25, 2023 by Seedorf81
additional info

[NamEndedAllen]

Another triumphant Putin victory! (sarcasm)

“To better cope with threats emanating from Russia, the countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden have created a unified Nordic air defense alliance, pooling the resources of their air forces. They have upwards of 300 fighter jets between them as well as training, transport and surveillance fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters.

Those four nations on Friday announced they signed the first Nordic Air Commanders' Intent last week during a meeting at Ramstein Air Base in Germany’.  https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/nordic-air-defense-pact-combines-forces-of-hundreds-of-fighter-aircraft

Edited March 25, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[chuckdyke]

The letter Z makes no sense. Just like Red Uniforms with White Crossed Bandoliers during the first Boer War.

 

[chuckdyke]

I found this an interesting channel.

 

 

[chuckdyke]

Here the link to their videos. 

(3) My Global issues - YouTube

 

[Harmon Rabb]

MTV cribs AFU edition.

Looks cozy.

[pintere]

*deleted*

Edited March 26, 2023 by pintere

[danfrodo]

Summary from this feller today.  Not a lot new but it's a slow day on the forum so here it is.  Has bar chart showing # of RU attacks per day starting March first.  Trend is most definitely down.  We'll see if this continues, but like I mentioned in earlier post we don't know the size of the attacks.  Could be same average size, could be getting smaller (most likely).  If the bars were also weighted by size of the attacks then I bet we'd see even great trend downward.  Be fun to also see RU shells fired per day.  Re-reports the story of RU tank factories shut down due to electronic parts shortages.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/25/2160121/-Ukraine-Update-Russian-assaults-appear-to-be-declining-as-wind-runs-out-of-Russian-offensive

 

[chrisl]

I don't think I've seen this NYT article linked here yet - it's about the difficulty the US DOD/MIC is having in ramping up to supply Ukraine while also maintaining enough in stock to protect Taiwan.  Shouldn't be much of a surprised to anybody here, given how much it's been discussed, but it's getting higher visibility.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/24/us/politics/military-weapons-ukraine-war.html?smid=url-share

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

Don't know if this has been mentioned earlier, but..

 

Dutch national newssite just now:

Putin will deploy tactical nukes in Belarussia. Storagefacility should be ready 1st of July.

(He said it in tv-interview on Belarussian state tv.)

Hadn't seen that yet, but it certainly is something Putin has been itching to do for quite some time now.  The old Lukashenko didn't like the idea.

It will be interesting to see if it actually happens.  Nothing stopping Putin from doing it.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

This is to scare President Biden.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Misc. links...

1.  Trolling Russians... video of WW1/WW2 era stuff "going to Ukraine" (obviously it's older footage of prepping for a parade):

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/1221auh/russian_is_moving_ww2_equipment_towards_the/

2.  Newsweek article about Russia's elites, both pro and anti-war, realize things are really bad, however they are unlikely to do anything about it.  None of them can picture an alternative to Putin, so they either hide from reality or they try and gain what they can for themselves.  This fits in nicely with the report that the ICC charges against Putin are making the elites squirm as they might be realizing that Putin is truly a deadend:

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-elite-knows-something-wrong-putin-boris-bondarev-1790121

3.  Cats on keyboards and in front of computer monitors can be cute and annoying, but this Ukrainian soldier is even more challenged:

https://imgur.com/gallery/9lByA7t

4.  Russia loves to give Ukraine symbols to rally behind.  Check out this painting of Oleksandr Matsyievskyi, the soldier who Russian executed for saying "Slava Ukraini":

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/120lncz/mural_of_oleksandr_matsyievskyi_who_was_killed_by/Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

Looks like Ukraine's efforts to destroy critical and expensive equipment keeps producing results.  R330-Zhitel EW system destroyed:

Took a couple of shots, but the results speak for themselves.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Speaking of Mick Ryan, here's an article he just published about the coming year entitled "Timing Is Everything":

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-coming-ukrainian-offensives

I think Mick would feel right at home here   He points out that Ukraine is likely to go with another two sector offensive with one possibly being a feint.  He discusses the differences between now and last Summer/Fall, both good (imbalance of equipment in Ukraine's favor) and bad (Russians have dug in and they have shown some skill in this).  And other stuff.

Steve

[Huba]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looks like Ukraine's efforts to destroy critical and expensive equipment keeps producing results.  R330-Zhitel EW system destroyed:

Took a couple of shots, but the results speak for themselves.

Steve

The UAV being used in this video is WB Electronics FlyeEye (at least according to the WB spokesman who shared this video). A great illustration of the advantage dedicated military drones hold over the commercial ones - the devil is in the datalink robustness.

[Haiduk]

 In this day, year ago, on 26th of March 2022  UKR army successfully completed first offensive operation and liberated Trostianets' town of Sumy oblast (about 20 000 of population). 

Russians appeared on outskirts of Trostistianets' as far as on 24th of Feb, but their columns were advancing further to their priority objectives - Chernihiv and Kyiv. They just set some chekpoints around the town and made probes, which were repelling by local DFTG forces (Volunteer Formations of Territorial Communities - irregular add-ons to Territorial Defense Troops) - Trostianets' hadn't own Territorial Defense battalion and small unit of 93rd mech.brigade. But since 27th of Feb 2022 Russians entered to the town with large forces and up to 1st of March 2022 completely captured it. After Russian troops were unable to capture Sumy and Konotop, they established own HQ and transport hub in Trostianets'

DFTG unit became partisans and informators for 93rd brigade, which established defense line not far from the town. Formally operation of town liberation began on 21st of March, but during previous week UKR forces destroyed several columns, moving west and since 16th of March conducted several successful artillery strikes on Russian artillery positions. Also was hit command center of 96th recon brigade, which with units of 13th tank regiment of 4th "Kantemirovskaya" guard tank division were main forces, holding Trostianet's and it outskirts. 

21st of March partisans were in role of pass conductors - they, knowing terrain, brought to the town multiple small assault groups of 93rd mech.brigade, bypassing Russian checkpoints. In this day UKR troops couldn't liberate the town and they withdrew - clashes with Russian troops were lasting on outskirts of Trostianets' up to 24-25th of March, when 93rd brigade entered the town again. Russians couldn't stand and in the night from 25th to 26th of March abandoned the town. Allegedly commander of Russian 13th tank regiment shot himself, being unable to keep thіs crucial point. His regiment also lost many armor in this battle destroyed and abandoned. 

There are no more detailed information of this operation and number of losses of both sides. UKR side approximately lost about 50 KIA. 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[cesmonkey]

Interesting spin on Putin's meeting with China's Xi Jinping this past week:

https://ria.ru/20230326/peregovory-1860729863.html
Peskov said that negotiations between Putin and Xi Jinping dragged on unexpectedly

https://tass.ru/politika/17371755
Peskov: long talks between Putin and Xi Jinping at the beginning of the visit speak of their attitude

Quote

"Of course, these are unexpectedly protracted events. But this speaks of the mood of the two leaders, of the spirit of trust and the content of their communication," the Kremlin spokesman said, answering a question from journalist Pavel Zarubin. Peskov stressed that it was not originally planned that the informal communication between Putin and Xi Jinping on the first day of the visit would be so long.

On Monday, March 20, on the first day of the Chinese President's state visit to Russia, Putin and Xi Jinping talked informally. In total, their conversation lasted almost 4.5 hours. Later, Putin said that after a working lunch, as a friend, he invited his Chinese colleague to his Kremlin apartment, and there they, "sitting by the fireplace and drinking tea, talked about everything slowly."

 

[akd]

Part 2 (we actually saw part of this earlier with UKR tank and BMP catching Russians fleeing back down tree line):

 

Edited March 26, 2023 by akd

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, akd said:

Part 2 (we actually saw part of this earlier with UKR tank and BMP catching Russians fleeing back down tree line):

 

Writings at the end of video "Despite of heroical resistance we lost this position in next night attack. But it was turned back again during next days by K-2 battalion. Watch our next videos"

[Anon052]

13 minutes ago, akd said:

Part 2 (we actually saw part of this earlier with UKR tank and BMP catching Russians fleeing back down tree line):

 

Brutal. At the  beginning there was a very close assault on  the  ukrainian trench. The combats only a few meters  apart. It seems to  have failed after one russian got shot  and direkt artillery hit. But there is a  cut. Seems to be that  the  russians got away?

Would  be interessting to  know how big the  casulties  where  here. Later in the  tank  attack everything is blurred.

 

Edited March 26, 2023 by Anon052

[Butschi]

19 hours ago, Anon052 said:

There is  a new story about the northstream  sabotage in german Focus.

I did  find the article only in german: https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/neue-spur-fuehrt-nach-russland-mit-greifarm-u-boot-steuerten-russische-militaerschiffe-nord-stream-pipelines-an_id_189278264.html

This new story is much more plausible then the sailing yacht story. The article states  that on september 19 there  were bigger maneuvers of the russian baltic fleet. It seems at least  3 russian ships (the article states that there could be  6 russian ships in all, all six  ships were named  in the article) used those maneuvers as cover to reach  the location of the bombings and were active there. This activity was detected by different swedish  and danish patrolships. The russian ships had specialised equipment like cranes and submersibles and there were espionage  ships that covered the  activity.

I myself work a lot in the port of Hamburg in explosive ordance  disposal of ww2 ordnance from specialised ships. This yacht story seemed like a  bad joke to me. I can't imagine how they handled the explosive from a yacht without a  crane.

Sorry, but this article in focus is based on an article by "t-online" which... is not nearly in the same league as ARD + SWR + Zeit. Their "research" is looking at public satellite data and speculating what Russian ships could have been involved. Several Russian military vessels, at least a frigate, a corvette, a submarine and possibly several others planting explosives in the Baltic Sea (comparatively small body of water surrounded by NATO countries and those who want to join) without anyone noticing? During a NATO naval exercise? At a time where nobody would be particularly shy of presenting evidence against Russia?

I don't say the other theory is much better but that doesn't make this one any more plausible, really. Disinformation is a thing but so is confirmation bias.

[The_Capt]

16 minutes ago, akd said:

Part 2 (we actually saw part of this earlier with UKR tank and BMP catching Russians fleeing back down tree line):

 

Well they really, really wanted that trench.  A whole lot going wrong for the Russian assaulters, not to mention some pretty basic errors and missing pieces (e.g. No fire base I could see - did not “win the fire fight”, bunched up on the advance - which went bad when mortars came in, no indirect fire support of their own, no AFV or Armor support, likely little to no ISR support, big losses and not much to show for it).  This little action looks like it could represent the entire Russian Winter offensive.