How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sross112]

36 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

A specific example of the tidy unit position was the guy that used a stick to pick up the (hot) spent casing to get it out of the way.  I've noticed a lot of sloppy piles of casings around the breach in many videos, for both sides, since the start of the war.  Granted these guys are firing single shots so it's easy to keep up with the casings, I should think if the unit was lazy this is exactly the time for seeing them pile up.  "Yeah, I'll get that later" attitude.

These guys keeping it clean can also be a contributing factor to them not being as easily spotted by the Russian drones. A position with trash around it stands out and points to where the people are. Just another possible addition to the otherwise noted reasons why they have been able to stay in position that long. 

There has also been mention recently in some of the interviews posted on here about the Russians getting better field craft. I've noticed that in several of the drone perspective videos and trench assaults that there is a lack of trash in the Russian positions in comparison to what we have seen in the past. I'm sure it isn't completely gone everywhere, but it is a sign that they recognize this gives away their positions and are trying to conceal themselves better. 

[Peregrine]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

They are carrying personal weapons at all times, which struck me as odd. Could be for the cameras, or could be because of the local ground threat.

I noticed and thought for cameras then maybe is it for drones?

[Sequoia]

Just a thought. We're thinking Xi is going to make the best move for China. We saw a year ago a supposedly shrewd dictator make a disastrous move for his country, and have blamed it on Putin surrounding himself by yes men after many years of accumulating power. How certain are we Xi isn't prone to the same flaw?

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, sross112 said:

If Putin refuses that, what is the best end state of Russia for China? Dead. Broken up and non-threatening. A China with an independent Yakutsk and Siberia with military guarantees for their security in exchange for access to their mineral and oil resources gives them the "gas station" that they need without the ball and chain of Russia dragging them down. China is very good at expanding infrastructure quickly and would be able to develop a lot of energy and resource independence in a short time. 

This is the crux of the decision that China has to make.  If it props up Russia in a substantial way, it gets the West super pissed off and that will hurt China directly in some way while, probably, only delaying the inevitable Russian defeat in Ukraine.  If it doesn't prop up Russia then its defeat will happen sooner without the West going after China specifically.

Here are some constants for either option:

1. Russia won't be a threat to the West in any non-nuclear way for a LONG time, effectively taking Russia out of the strategic global strategy for China in the near term.
2. China will get good deals on Russian resources because Russia will remain under sanctions for a long time and Russia needs money.
3. Russia is headed towards economic collapse no matter what China does.  I doubt China is either willing or able to float Russia the sort of money it would take to change the equation any.
4. if Russia splits up, now or later, China will likely control a lot of Russia's valuable minerals/oil for itself, most likely through proxy arrangements.  Something that it has a lot of experience and success with.
5. the sooner things quiet down in Ukraine the clearer China's options are for the near future.  The longer the war drags out the more uncertainty there is.
6. China has some significant domestic problems that are bad now and will be made much worse if the West downgrades its economic relationship with it.
7. the war SHOULD be causing China to reevaluate its military capabilities.  It will take many years to implement any significant improvements.
8. the West is gearing up for a war with China and will continue to do so, though it could gear up faster if China is seen as trying to prop up Russia's war.
9. Russia is likely to sell military know-how to China sooner rather than later for one or another reason.

I dunno.  Looks pretty clear cut to me that a meaningful move to support Russia's war in Ukraine is a really, really, really bad move for China.  The upside potential is very small and narrow, but the downside potential (economic war with the West) is potentially a threat to China's internal stability.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Sequoia said:

Just a thought. We're thinking Xi is going to make the best move for China. We saw a year ago a supposedly shrewd dictator make a disastrous move for his country, and have blamed it on Putin surrounding himself by yes men after many years of accumulating power. How certain are we Xi isn't prone to the same flaw?

This is a HUGE question that I don't know the answer to.  However, your overall point indicates something we already do know.  Russia wanted China to throw its weight behind this war since very early on.  China declines.  Hard.  Now that the war is going even worse, perhaps being over by the end of this year, what incentive does China have to change its policy?  Especially if it thinks Russia is going to collapse anyway (see above post).

Steve

[chuckdyke]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

what incentive does China have to change its policy?

Kazakhstan Joining NATO. It won't stop with Ukraine all central Asia may join or have their own military alliances.

[Peregrine]

14 minutes ago, Sequoia said:

Just a thought. We're thinking Xi is going to make the best move for China. We saw a year ago a supposedly shrewd dictator make a disastrous move for his country, and have blamed it on Putin surrounding himself by yes men after many years of accumulating power. How certain are we Xi isn't prone to the same flaw?

Xi is starting to look the same in many ways. He is now looking like leader for life when he probably shouldn't be. Strong vote result in his favor, 2952 - 0.

The ruling party is littered with loyalists. Personal loyalty is the most important trait. Competence is left by the wayside. No contest of ideas.

At the same time they are repeating the same mistakes dictatorships everywhere make. Manufacturing internal and external enemies even when they don't really exist. Do this often enough and it becomes reality that is acted upon.

Only problem for the rest of the world is that when they go nuts internally or externally 1.4 billion people will be involved.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Kazakhstan Joining NATO. It won't stop with Ukraine all central Asia may join or have their own military alliances.

Right, but Russia is already failing to keep these republics under its thumb and China has an incentive to keep it that way.  China has been working hard to become the new benefactor in the region and already it seems the main competition is with the West and not Russia.  Propping up Russia undermines its own goals for the region.

In fact, this should be a constant in my list above:

10. China is already competing with the West for alliances in the former Soviet Central Asian sphere.  A weaker Russia may make it easier for China to rack up some gains.

Steve

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

1. One guy mentioned that they keep someone awake on the radio at night so they can respond to a call within 2-3 minutes.  But he also said they need to keep guys outside to guard against "diversion" attacks.  Which is definitely something the Russians love to attempt, so it seems very prudent to always have their small arms handy.
2. When the crew went under cover they said if Russia responded it could take up to 10-15 minutes, so they go underground and wait it out.  They also said that response can come right away or none at all.
3. The guy manning the radio for the battery commander said he is normally a driver, but as the unit is static he doesn't drive much (resupply missions, likely) so he makes himself useful.  Another sign of a disciplined unit.

Right, not on my phone any more.

1. Yeah, radio stag is a thing, and has been since radios were a thing. The bad guys don't just work 9-5, which means support has to be on call 24/7.

2. Which, ironically, is a pretty cute CB effect.

3. Yeah, there is always the need to more warm bodies to spread the load so everyone can get a bit more shuteye. And that's aside from keeping Driver Snooks wandering off the reservation through sheer boredom.

[chuckdyke]

President Xi looked like a Chesire Cat playing with a mouse.

 

[chuckdyke]

Banger is only a word. It depends on who you are a Russian or a K-9. Hope all people get it. It is informal English.

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is the crux of the decision that China has to make.  If it props up Russia in a substantial way, it gets the West super pissed off and that will hurt China directly in some way while, probably, only delaying the inevitable Russian defeat in Ukraine.  If it doesn't prop up Russia then its defeat will happen sooner without the West going after China specifically.

Here are some constants for either option:

1. Russia won't be a threat to the West in any non-nuclear way for a LONG time, effectively taking Russia out of the strategic global strategy for China in the near term.
2. China will get good deals on Russian resources because Russia will remain under sanctions for a long time and Russia needs money.
3. Russia is headed towards economic collapse no matter what China does.  I doubt China is either willing or able to float Russia the sort of money it would take to change the equation any.
4. if Russia splits up, now or later, China will likely control a lot of Russia's valuable minerals/oil for itself, most likely through proxy arrangements.  Something that it has a lot of experience and success with.
5. the sooner things quiet down in Ukraine the clearer China's options are for the near future.  The longer the war drags out the more uncertainty there is.
6. China has some significant domestic problems that are bad now and will be made much worse if the West downgrades its economic relationship with it.
7. the war SHOULD be causing China to reevaluate its military capabilities.  It will take many years to implement any significant improvements.
8. the West is gearing up for a war with China and will continue to do so, though it could gear up faster if China is seen as trying to prop up Russia's war.
9. Russia is likely to sell military know-how to China sooner rather than later for one or another reason.

I dunno.  Looks pretty clear cut to me that a meaningful move to support Russia's war in Ukraine is a really, really, really bad move for China.  The upside potential is very small and narrow, but the downside potential (economic war with the West) is potentially a threat to China's internal stability.

Steve

Chinas problem is that it is likely going to have to fight the next Cold/Tepid/Warm War shackled to a corpse.  It is trying to figure out what that looks like in a way where they get what they need to challenge the west but don’t let Russia drag them down with them.

And we didn’t have to do anything, Putin put this mess in motion all on his lonesome.

[Haiduk]

9 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Armata related to armed? Here it is cannon according to the subtitle.

"Harmata" in Ukrainian means "cannon" common name for all barrel artillery assets.

In more narrow sense it means exactly "gun", not "howitzer" (ukr. "haubytsia")

But in this case "harmata!" is a command, which gives after charging of gun before the shoot. After this command a crew have to stand on own positions and to be ready to repeat charging routine after the shoot. In Russian the same command sounds like "orudiye!"

When after "harmata!" command a crew had been prepared for shoot, a commander gives "vohon' !" ("fire!") command

Often before salvo shoot, especially on camera, for bigger "immersion effect" ), commander instead "vohon' !", commands "Trysta! Trydtsiat' !! Try!!!" ("300! 30!! 3 !!!"). This is Soviet code command for arty fire, some sort of "ready-steady-fire"

Edited March 21, 2023 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/20/xi-jinping-vladimir-putin-moscow-ukraine-war

A picture worth 1000 PGMs. 

I know it's for show, but this relationship is a little too cheeky for me. Xi didn't have to accept a state visit - but he did. Maybe Vlad fears leaving Russia and/or using electronic comms. 

---

Is there a worse mental state than insanity?:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/russia-threatens-bomb-hague-xi-kremlin

"I’m afraid, gentlemen, everyone is answerable to God and missiles,” Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev, who held the title of Russian presidency under Putin from 2008 to 2012, said on Monday. “It’s quite possible to imagine how a hypersonic Oniks fired from a Russian warship in the North Sea strikes the court building in The Hague. It can’t be shot down, I’m afraid.”

 

[DesertFox]

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Is there a worse mental state than insanity?:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/russia-threatens-bomb-hague-xi-kremlin

"I’m afraid, gentlemen, everyone is answerable to God and missiles,” Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev, who held the title of Russian presidency under Putin from 2008 to 2012, said on Monday. “It’s quite possible to imagine how a hypersonic Oniks fired from a Russian warship in the North Sea strikes the court building in The Hague. It can’t be shot down, I’m afraid.”

 

That guy is beyond hope. Needs to be put in a straitjacket in a nuthouse.

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

That guy is beyond hope. Needs to be put in a straitjacket in a nuthouse.

I am still surprised/amused by Medvedev.  When he was temporarily keeping Putin's presidential seat warm I don't recall him being nutty in the least.  Granted there wasn't a lot going on at the time, but still my impression of him wasn't bad in that way.  I've had more reason to doubt the sanity of some Western leaders than Medvedev.  Now he has been turned loose as a rabid attack dog by Putin, because there's no way he could be like this without Putin's approval.

Steve

[Halmbarte]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am still surprised/amused by Medvedev.  When he was temporarily keeping Putin's presidential seat warm I don't recall him being nutty in the least.  Granted there wasn't a lot going on at the time, but still my impression of him wasn't bad in that way.  I've had more reason to doubt the sanity of some Western leaders than Medvedev.  Now he has been turned loose as a rabid attack dog by Putin, because there's no way he could be like this without Putin's approval.

Steve

It's all about the the party (Putin Party) line. You must repeat what the Maximum Leader wants to hear and strive to outdo the others in the Inner Party to show your loyalty. If you don't you're liable to fall down some stairs or out of a window. 

There are some downsides to running a government this way. 

H

[Taranis]

"Column of Ukrainian tanks towards Bakhmut, in southeastern Ukraine, on March 20, 2023. ARIS MESSINIS / AFP"
* Ukrainian T-64BV

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's take on Xi's meeting with Putin (March 20th report).  I've bolded the bits most relevant to our ongoing discussion.  The first line was already bolded:

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on March 20 and offered a more reserved vision for Russian-Chinese relations than what Putin was likely seeking. Xi and Putin touted the strength of Chinese-Russian relations in their meeting on March 20, but offered differing interpretations of the scale of future relations in articles they published on March 19.[8] Putin published an article in Chinese state media in which he argued that Russia and China are building a partnership for the formation of a multipolar world order in the face of the collective West’s seeking of domination and the United States pursuing a policy of dual containment against China and Russia.[9] Xi offered a less aggressive overarching goal for Russian-Chinese relations in his article published in Russian state media outlet Rossiskaya Gazeta, in which he noted that Russia and China are generally pursuing a multipolar world order but not specifically against an adversarial West.[10] Xi instead focused heavily on presenting China as a viable third-party mediator to the war in Ukraine whose plan for negotiations ”reflects the unity of views of the world community on overcoming the Ukrainian crisis.”[11] Putin wrote that Russia welcomes China’s willingness to ”play a constructive role in crisis management” regarding the war in Ukraine, but Putin likely was hoping for Xi to adopt a similarly aggressive rhetorical line against the West.[12]

Xi’s refusal to explicitly align China with Russia in Putin’s envisioned geopolitical conflict with the West is a notable departure from China’s declared “no limits partnership” with Russia preceding the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[13] Xi’s rhetoric suggests that he is not inclined to fully give Russia the economic and political support that Russia needs to reverse setbacks in Ukraine. Putin and Xi offered somewhat similar visions for increased Chinese-Russian economic partnership, and it is likely that the two will sign bilateral trade and economic agreements during Xi’s visit, some of which will likely aim to facilitate schemes for sanctions evasion.[14] Xi will also likely offer a more concrete proposal for a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine, although it remains unclear what his proposal will entail and how receptive the Kremlin will be to it. The prospects of China supplying Russia with military equipment also remain unclear.

[Beleg85]

54 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am still surprised/amused by Medvedev.  When he was temporarily keeping Putin's presidential seat warm I don't recall him being nutty in the least.  Granted there wasn't a lot going on at the time, but still my impression of him wasn't bad in that way.  I've had more reason to doubt the sanity of some Western leaders than Medvedev.  Now he has been turned loose as a rabid attack dog by Putin, because there's no way he could be like this without Putin's approval.

Steve

Add more than possible influence of alcohol- even for customs of his sorroundings, Dima reportedly tanks a lot. At this moment even Kadyrov is more serious politician than him.

Some of them seem to be covering, but admittedly a lot of soldiers in this sinle trench.

[sross112]

Looks like the M1's timetable has been pushed up a bit. Still not quick enough but will be refurbished A1's instead of new production A2's.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-abrams-tanks-94294a9c1e1acc50098afa440bcb4d40?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=TopNews&utm_campaign=position_03

Along with our China conversation, Japan has really been putting itself out there in support of Ukraine and polar opposite to China. Seems like they are coming out of their shell more and more on the international stage.

https://apnews.com/article/kishida-kyiv-xi-russia-putin-summit-575d4249f213f1ac0002344501c0239c?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=TopNews&utm_campaign=position_06

Haven't see anyone else link Perun's newest video of analysis on the RA winter offensive. Lots of points very similar to what has been said on here but also does a good job of showing each of the different areas. Worth the hour watching if you have the time.

Favorite quote from Perun:

9:21 "Generally speaking if the other side can't tell if your offensive has gone in or not, that's pretty embarrassing."

maybe @The_Capt can give us the military acronym for the age old question "Is it in yet?" 

Edited March 21, 2023 by sross112

[cesmonkey]

 

[billbindc]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's an important first... the EU has agreed to purchase 1m artillery rounds for Ukraine instead of cobbling together individual orders from individual member nations.  Such a "bulk purchase" has never been made before by the EU:

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-seals-deal-send-ukraine-1-million-ammo-rounds-shells-war/

Steve

This is one of those ho hum things that it actually kind of significant. It's the EU acting as a single entity in activity just adjacent to fighting a war. Imagine, if you will, a Russian negotiator's reaction working in that light on a final agreement to the idea that Ukraine will forego NATO but be in the European Community. That gives you a sense of the phase change that just occurred. 

Edited March 21, 2023 by billbindc

[cesmonkey]

In this video, they say these French shells are manufactured with powder sourced from Sweden. Production of powder will be done in France next year. Each shell is x-rayed as a quality control step. One week's production is 630 shells.

 

[Seminole]

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Chinas problem is that it is likely going to have to fight the next Cold/Tepid/Warm War shackled to a corpse.  It is trying to figure out what that looks like in a way where they get what they need to challenge the west but don’t let Russia drag them down with them.

The ‘corpse’ will be providing them resources at a market discount due to sanctions, an economic advantage not enjoyed by competitors in Europe. 
In what other sense does Russia have anything to offer China?

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

And we didn’t have to do anything, Putin put this mess in motion all on his lonesome.

The pols in Germany, France and other Western European countries that cautioned against expanding NATO into Ukraine (for some reason*) probably don’t look at it as ‘we didn’t do anything’ to get where we are today.  
 

* If their reason wasn’t genuine concern that Russia would launch this war in response, I’m curious what it was.