How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Markus86]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

These trench videos are brutal.  If the defender has lost the ability to fire or retreat, they get slaughtered. 

Steve

Or if you focus too much in one direction. Apparantly a russian is sneaking into the trench, while ukrainian soldiers focus on what is in front of them. 

 

[kevinkin]

Happy St Paddy's Day

https://dnyuz.com/2023/03/17/russia-losing-troops-so-fast-they-may-collapse-by-years-end-ex-general/

“Russia is being attrited at such a rate that they may collapse before the end of this year, assuming the West delivers in time what we’ve promised. War is a test of will and a test of logistics,” Hodges tweeted in reference to an assessment by military expert Marcus M. Keupp, who leads the Department of Defense Economics at the Military Academy of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology.

During his interview with the German news outlet, Keupp agreed that the battle in Bakhmut illustrates the meaning of “war of attrition” in reality.

“The current situation in Bakhmut particularly symbolizes this fact. A look at the numbers makes this clear: In order to take the city, the Russian leadership sends out battalions in mindless frontal attacks, the units are quickly shot up. If they lose a battalion every day, they have to get replacements. But from where? So other parts of the front are being thinned out,” he said.

I would kiss that dirty old blarney stone if this could be made to happen. 

[Beleg85]

Short clip from Dmitri about one balsy Ukrainian soldier from 71st Brigade- interesting material about storming the trenches. Guy was hit in helmet, but survived, get back on his feet and shoot Russian defender of the trench:

https://twitter.com/Artur_Micek/status/1636823771708375040

More material:

 

Edited March 17, 2023 by Beleg85

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

While that is a very beautiful name, having deep cultural connotations with Polish history and culture, I cannot help but wonder how it sounds to English ears.

Like a dangerous lesbian with a long stick, of course. 

Edited March 17, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

38 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Happy St Paddy's Day

https://dnyuz.com/2023/03/17/russia-losing-troops-so-fast-they-may-collapse-by-years-end-ex-general/

“Russia is being attrited at such a rate that they may collapse before the end of this year, assuming the West delivers in time what we’ve promised. War is a test of will and a test of logistics,” Hodges tweeted in reference to an assessment by military expert Marcus M. Keupp, who leads the Department of Defense Economics at the Military Academy of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology.

During his interview with the German news outlet, Keupp agreed that the battle in Bakhmut illustrates the meaning of “war of attrition” in reality.

“The current situation in Bakhmut particularly symbolizes this fact. A look at the numbers makes this clear: In order to take the city, the Russian leadership sends out battalions in mindless frontal attacks, the units are quickly shot up. If they lose a battalion every day, they have to get replacements. But from where? So other parts of the front are being thinned out,” he said.

I would kiss that dirty old blarney stone if this could be made to happen. 

Oh its dirty,  I can assure you. I know for a fact the local kids have been pissing on that stone for decades. 

For a fact, ladies. 

[chuckdyke]

 

[chuckdyke]

Dead end of evolution I appreciate that description of the cannon fodder in trenches. Are Jaegers the equivalent of US Rangers? I don't speak Ukrainian but suspect it could be translated as hunters.

Edited March 17, 2023 by chuckdyke

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, Markus86 said:

Or if you focus too much in one direction. Apparantly a russian is sneaking into the trench, while ukrainian soldiers focus on what is in front of them. 

 

Damn... This war is just wrong, seeing your son, brother, friend, husband, father shot in HD. I think after WW1 this the most horrible war for the infantry man. It's just unfair to be infantry nowadays. It always has been, but now it's another level. 

[DesertFox]

44 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Dead end of evolution I appreciate that description of the cannon fodder in trenches. Are Jaegers the equivalent of US Rangers? I don't speak Ukrainian but suspect it could be translated as hunters.

Nope. Jaeger is the ordinary infantry man. A non mechanised, foot slogger. The poor bastards, who have to fight without IFVs like Marders, Pumas etc. If lucky they have a GTK Boxer available.

Jäger erhalten „Kampfboxer“ (esut.de)

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

"Happening in the fight now is that the attrition exchange rate is favorable to Ukraine but it's not nearly as favorable as it was before. The casualties on the Ukrainian side are rather significant and require a substantial amount of replacements on a regular basis,"

You know, no one was saying that Bakhmut was a cakewalk, but I honestly think the UA has been waging a corrosive campaign on the RA, but it was defensive at Bakhmut.  The UA lost things they can replace or know is coming on line, the RA lost things they cannot.

 

Pre war "trained" infantry might even be more important than the electronic warfare, the heavy MLRS, and the bleep ton of artillery they both actually losing and wearing out.

[Peregrine]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Oh its dirty,  I can assure you. I know for a fact the local kids have been pissing on that stone for decades. 

For a fact, ladies. 

I have been to Ireland (from Australia) and later when I started with a bunch of Irish guys told them about my trip the first thing the locals from County Cork said was "FFS, please tell me you didn't kiss the stone." for the above reasons.

Right of passage in the area apparently.

[LongLeftFlank]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukraine is going to have to attack Russia's entrenched forces this year regardless of the state of corrosion of Russian forces.  Therefore, Ukraine needs to figure out a way to blow open Russian defenses without expending its offensive strength in the process.  If it can do that I think deep scale exploitation is almost a given.  If it can't, then I'm not sure how much success Ukraine can hope to have this year.

Steve

Ha, you're sounding like me there, Steve.

I've never believed time especially favours one side over the other in this thing. And all this confident talk of waiting til summer still gives me the willies.

Western militaries are in love with the Big Buildup, followed by the Big Push. But that presupposes Very Large resource dominance (materiel AND manpower), which I do not concede is the case in this war (cuz RU:UKR population 3.5x, and cuz China/Iran).  Remember, the 'Yanks Aren't Coming' (just some of their stuff).

As time passes, capability gains on both sides aren't always linear or incremental. There are step function jumps that occur. Since Russia is slow, giving them ample time to faff around but eventually puzzle out those step-ups (e.g. drone warfare, higher tech mortars, Chinese Stugnas/Javs) carries a risk.  So what UKR is using the time to do better be worth it.

(Especially if the Russians regain the Oskil boundary, reach the outkirts of Siversk and wind down their mass attacks, then begin angling for a cease-fire. Another 200k+ mobiks are already being dragooned in to replace the dead meat. They're losing their habit of clustering around their AFVs and their fieldcraft is improving).

I still believe an overwhelming battlefield victory encompassing the destruction of an entire RU combined arms army in the land bridge is possible.

And fine, the black box of C4ISR could create a fatal imbalance that allows UA to hand-pick points of overwelming dominance and renders all Russian improvements moot.

....But as they say, don't make 'perfect' the enemy of 'good enough'.  Ukraine doesn't have that luxury.

P.S.  I am waiting for the latest smackdown from @The_Capt (if he hasn't hit Ignore already lol), but when you say 'Russia has lost [and continues to lose] things it cannot replace', can you please be more specific?

Edited March 18, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Ha, you're sounding like me there, Steve.

I've never believed time especially favours one side over the other in this thing. And all this confident talk of waiting til summer still gives me the willies.

Western militaries are in love with the Big Buildup, followed by the Big Push. But that presupposes Very Large resource dominance (materiel AND manpower), which I do not concede is the case in this war (cuz RU:UKR population 3.5x, and cuz China/Iran).  Remember, the 'Yanks Aren't Coming' (just some of their stuff).

As time passes, capability gains on both sides aren't always linear or incremental. There are step function jumps that occur. Since Russia is slow, giving them ample time to faff around but eventually puzzle out those step-ups (e.g. drone warfare, higher tech mortars, Chinese Stugnas/Javs) carries a risk.  So what UKR is using the time to do better be worth it.

(Especially if the Russians regain the Oskil boundary, reach the outkirts of Siversk and wind down their mass attacks. Another 200k+ mobiks are already being dragooned in to replace the dead meat. They're losing their habit of clustering around their AFVs and their fieldcraft is improving).

I still believe an overwhelming battlefield victory encompassing the destruction of an entire RU combined arms army in the land bridge is possible.

And fine, the black box of C4ISR could create a fatal imbalance that allows UA to hand-pick points of overwelming dominance and renders all Russian improvements moot.

....But as they say, don't make 'perfect' the enemy of 'good enough'.  Ukraine doesn't have that luxury.

The thing I keep coming back too is the extent to which the entire Russian force is becoming almost completely composed of Mobiks with no training to speak of. If Ukraine can get a break through somewhere on the land bridge and force this utterly untrained mass to maneuver, there is real chance to make good things happen.

[sburke]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Oh its dirty,  I can assure you. I know for a fact the local kids have been pissing on that stone for decades. 

For a fact, ladies. 

speaking from personal experience?

[LongLeftFlank]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The thing I keep coming back too is the extent to which the entire Russian force is becoming almost completely composed of Mobiks with no training to speak of. If Ukraine can get a break through somewhere on the land bridge and force this utterly untrained mass to maneuver, there is real chance to make good things happen.

Yup, agree that could become decisive if the Big Push occurs in April or May.... yeah, that isn't too far from now.

By late July though, given that RU has stopped flinging men into attacks and has shifted to the operational defensive, 'mobik' may not mean quite what you think it means. If they don't stop, well that's great.

[The_Capt]

39 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

P.S.  I am waiting for the latest smackdown from @The_Capt (if he hasn't hit Ignore already lol), but when you say 'Russia has lost [and continues to lose] things it cannot replace', can you please be more specific?

C4ISR assets, logistics, engineering, EW, aircraft, guns/deep strike and specialists.  We are wailing at our industry for the lack of depth in the western magazines.  Russia had depth but found out it was largely filled with garbage.  Every time I see an Oryx report that shows a maint depot or SIGINT or very expensive AD assets, it is equipment that the RA will take years to get back (if ever), and it was low density to begin with.

These are the things that make the machine work.  Without them all those shiny new T62s are pretty much useless.  A military operational system is like a human body, it can take a beating but once critical organs start to fail it triggers follow on failures.

The UA loses stuff but it is backed by the deep pockets of the west (and yes, they are still deep in comparison to Russia if one takes into account quality).  China is the only life line for the RA on this sort of stuff as its own industry cannot keep up and is being hit by sanctions.  But China hasn’t shown it is going to jump into this with high end support yet, and it likely isn’t going to go “all in” considering it has its own region to worry about.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Markus86 said:

Or if you focus too much in one direction. Apparantly a russian is sneaking into the trench, while ukrainian soldiers focus on what is in front of them. 

 

Terrible, but it's not hard to see how that happened.  Situational awareness in trenches sucks.  The longer the trench, the more likely something like this is going to happen.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Oh its dirty,  I can assure you. I know for a fact the local kids have been pissing on that stone for decades. 

For a fact, ladies. 

I bent down, took one look at it, and thought "nope not going to do the kissing thing, good enough to see it".  It did not look nice!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Ha, you're sounding like me there, Steve.

Oh no, then I must have mistyped something   I'll clarify...

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I've never believed time especially favours one side over the other in this thing. And all this confident talk of waiting til summer still gives me the willies.

That shouldn't be the takeaway from my last post about how I view it at least.  There is a subtle, but critical, difference between "time is not on anybody's side" concept.  One is that it means time is equally bad for both sides in equal ways, the other is that it is equally bad for both sides but in unequal ways.

Think about it this way.  Let's say two guys fall overboard from a boat.  The water is cold.  Both have to keep their heads above water until the boat comes back.  If the boat doesn't come back soon enough, they will both drown.  But, if one is a better swimmer than the other and the boat is coming back, then it could be that one drowns and the other does not.  Time matters for both, but not equally so.

This is the situation of this war since the start.  Time is running out for both sides, but it is running out far faster for Russia than Ukraine.  It is important for Ukraine to understand that.  I think Russia knows this as well, which is why it is willing to trade 10s of thousands of lives and decades of war material to "buy time".

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Western militaries are in love with the Big Buildup, followed by the Big Push. But that presupposes Very Large resource dominance (materiel AND manpower), which I do not concede is the case in this war (cuz RU:UKR population 3.5x, and cuz China/Iran).  Remember, the 'Yanks Aren't Coming' (just some of their stuff).

Incorrect by a wide margin.  The evidence is clear to see from the first year of the war.  Even when Ukraine was dwarfed by Russia's resources it won battles and caused catastrophic losses on Russian forces.  Russia is weaker now than at any point in this war in everything other than bodies at the front.  Pretty much everything the Russians have is at the front and they are losing.

Ukraine doesn't have to have "Very Large resource dominance" to win big victories.  Has needed it so far, so why all of a sudden is this the deciding factor?  Especially when it is arguable that Ukraine is stronger in many ways than at any point in this war so far.

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

As time passes, capability gains on both sides aren't always linear or incremental. There are step function jumps that occur. Since Russia is slow, giving them ample time to faff around but eventually puzzle out those step-ups (e.g. drone warfare, higher tech mortars, Chinese Stugnas/Javs) carries a risk.  So what UKR is using the time to do better be worth it.

Yesh.  Way off the mark again.  If Russia was simply holding the line while it figured out how to smash Ukraine to pieces a different way, maybe.  Instead it is frittering away 10s of thousands of men every month and is now running out of equipment and munitions to fight with.  What's the good in learning how to win if you don't have anything left to win with?

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

(Especially if the Russians regain the Oskil boundary, reach the outkirts of Siversk and wind down their mass attacks, then begin angling for a cease-fire. Another 200k+ mobiks are already being dragooned in to replace the dead meat. They're losing their habit of clustering around their AFVs and their fieldcraft is improving).

They are losing their habit of clustering around their AFVs because they don't have hardly any AFVs left to cluster behind

Their fieldcraft isn't improving faster than capacity to use it is being lost.  Ukraine, on the other hand, is learning and has the ability to leverage what it is learning.  Seen plenty of that in the first year of this war.

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I still believe an overwhelming battlefield victory encompassing the destruction of an entire RU combined arms army in the land bridge is possible.

Sure doesn't sound like it

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

And fine, the black box of C4ISR could create a fatal imbalance that allows UA to hand-pick points of overwelming dominance and renders all Russian improvements moot.

....But as they say, don't make 'perfect' the enemy of 'good enough'.  Ukraine doesn't have that luxury.

And there is the one point, right down at the bottom, where my previous post and this post of yours is in agreement.  Ukraine doesn't have the luxury to hold off until next year, especially after Bakhmut's sacrifice.  It needs to rack up something significant this year.  It doesn't have to be perfect, and I expect it won't be, but it has to be substantial.  I have faith that this can be achieved even if I'm not certain of the outcome.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

55 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

C4ISR assets, logistics, engineering, EW, aircraft, guns/deep strike and specialists.  We are wailing at our industry for the lack of depth in the western magazines.  Russia had depth but found out it was largely filled with garbage.  Every time I see an Oryx report that shows a maint depot or SIGINT or very expensive AD assets, it is equipment that the RA will take years to get back (if ever), and it was low density to begin with.

These are the things that make the machine work.  Without them all those shiny new T62s are pretty much useless.  A military operational system is like a human body, it can take a beating but once critical organs start to fail it triggers follow on failures.

The UA loses stuff but it is backed by the deep pockets of the west (and yes, they are still deep in comparison to Russia if one takes into account quality).  China is the only life line for the RA on this sort of stuff as its own industry cannot keep up and is being hit by sanctions.  But China hasn’t shown it is going to jump into this with high end support yet, and it likely isn’t going to go “all in” considering it has its own region to worry about.

I've said it before and I'll say it again... lots of people are drawing conclusions from this war that can not be made with certainty.  They fail to keep in mind the knowns of wars past and are still trying to understand the war we are in now.

To me it seems few are remembering the lessons from both Iraq Wars.  Masses of weaponry were not needed by the Western forces because the war was over and done with because the qualitative difference decided the war, not quantitative.  The mistake many experts made going into this war is they thought Russia had both quantity and quality.  In fact, it was just about as capable as Saddam's military.  A little better, but a short person can't dunk a basketball much better than a dwarf even though he is a little taller.

What do people think would happen right now if NATO went "all in" and used its conventional forces against Russia?  Does anybody seriously think the Russian airforce would survive more than a couple of days, at most?  Does anybody think Russia's air defenses would hold up in any meaningful way?  How about Russia's naval forces?  Does anybody think a B2 Bomber wouldn't wipe out various strategic supply points on the first day?  How fast does anybody think Russia could adapt to ATACMS raining down on logistics and control points 100km+ in the rear?  What sort of artillery would Russia have left after the first week?  Would Russia's soldiers really want to sit there and have Western IFVs and MBTs slugging away at thier forward positions without much of anything to hit back?  And what of Russia's mobile assets trying to conduct supply or combat roles being exposed to NATO air attacks and artillery in one day worse than months of fighting with Ukraine?

The list goes on and on and on.  Russia would get slaughtered and fold up its tent in a very short period of time with plenty of munitions and platforms to spare. 

If NATO went into this from the beginning, it would be more costly for NATO but it would end up the same... Russia knocked out of the war before NATO's capacity was worn out.

Those who think it is different than what I just described are likely the same ones that didn't understand before this war started that Russia was going to lose and why.

Now, what we HAVE learned from this war is that if the West is going to let a proxy fight a war of attrition on its behalf, without direct intervention, and not run down its own stocks of weaponry and platforms to unacceptable levels, well then the West had better adjust its procurement strategy.  Because this is too close for comfort IMHO.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Drone footage of the two videos previously posted of Ukraine cleaning out a reinforced hide out in the woods:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Another sign of Russian problems with supplying its forces with current weaponry:

 

What air defense doing?  Underscores the problem of relying upon air defenses not designed to detect or engage small drones:

Another excellent use for small drones is micromanaging attacks on smaller assets that are important to a relatively small sector of frontage.  In this case a Russian remote sensor:

Murz (not sure which one) is not sounding very upbeat after the ICC announcement:

 

Steve

[Kinophile]

On 3/15/2023 at 1:05 AM, Battlefront.com said:

Some info fresh (i.e. Monday and Tuesday) from just west of Bakhmut and to the north.  About 4km away with units that were either rotating out or rotating in.  This is from a journalist I know who can be trusted with this sort of stuff because he's a CMer from the start.  There's a lot of info so I'm just going to cut and paste some of the stuff relevant to the discussions we've been having:

 

In all of our discussions about Bakhmut, casualty ratios, relative force capabilities, etc. that his first hand experiences are reasonably inline with what the more positive thinking we've expressed here.  I don't see the sort of pessimism and doom that Kofman et all got from their trip only a few days earlier.  I'll ask our friend about this and get back to you.

 

Steve

Superb info. 

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

speaking from personal experience?

No comment. 

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Peregrine said:

I have been to Ireland (from Australia) and later when I started with a bunch of Irish guys told them about my trip the first thing the locals from County Cork said was "FFS, please tell me you didn't kiss the stone." for the above reasons.

Right of passage in the area apparently.

We love our tourists,  and we also love "taking the piss"...