Seminole Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 7 minutes ago, The_Capt said: This fall, or next spring after retaking a pre-2014 region - my money is on Crimea because it makes the most military sense White House messaging on this seems mixed. Blinken one month ago: A Ukrainian attempt to retake Crimea would be a red line for Vladimir Putin that could lead to a wider Russian response, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a Zoom call with a group of experts Wednesday. Two days after that: The U.S. supports Ukrainian strikes on military targets in the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula, said U.S. Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland. "Russia has turned Crimea into a massive military installation…those are legitimate targets, Ukraine is hitting them, and we are supporting that," Nuland told the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. "No matter what the Ukrainians decide about Crimea in terms of where they choose to fight, etcetera, Ukraine is not going to be safe unless Crimea is at a minimum demilitarised," she added. The Russians accepting to ‘demilitarize’ the home of the Black Sea Fleet? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said: Is this really Ukrainians attacking a Russian trench? Any info about where and when was it recorded? It's mostly the Russians who have been assaulting Ukrainian trenches throughout the winter, and it looks like this trench has been heavily but very inaccurately bombarded, like the Russians like to do. Maybe a local UKR counterattack to retake their old positions? Or a video with the roles switched around. Judging on subs, yes, UKR assaulted the trench. 92nd brigade - from north of Kharkiv oblast down to Svatove. At the end we can see writing "UKR troops seized "crossroad" of this position" Edited March 15, 2023 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sross112 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 54 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Follow up to my comment about how the attack on the drone can be spun to support US isolationists and pro-Russian lobbies... I was listening to the BBC today and they had a Russia academic and former advisor to Putin on the air. He stated very clearly, as in VERY CLEARLY, that the whole world knows that Ukraine isn't a country, that the Kyiv regime is a puppet of the US, and that the US drone was actively seeking information in order to kill Russians. The anchor, thankfully, called BS on all of this and focused on the neutrality of the airspace. The guy acknowledged this, then quickly went on to say that it didn't matter because Russia has a right to defend itself. When pressed about if the actions of the pilots was aggressive and irresponsible, he admitted that it wasn't really a good idea for them to have taken down the drone (he said clearly that it was deliberate, BTW), but because the US is insistent on killing Russians then what do you expect Russia to do? When asked what should be done about the situation, he said that both sides should descalate starting with the US withdrawing its aggressive military posture supporting the deaths of Russian soldiers. So there it is, the sort of talking points aimed squarely at elements in the US and elsewhere that are too confused to understand what is really going on. I expect to see the hard right and hard left in the US blathersphere repeating this sort of nonsense. Steve I was thinking about this incident last night. I'm wondering if Russia was escalating with the US and will continue to do so with the intent to instigate an actual exchange of shots. Maybe mess with unmanned a couple more times and then go after an AWACS or JSTARS or something with the same rationale as above (they are enabling the killing of Russians so we killed them). Hoping to provoke the US into a response of sinking the Black Sea Fleet or something similar. Russia could ratchet up the nuclear forces to pre-launch. Then having China with the UN standing up like the teacher over a playground brawl, "Enough!! EVERYBODY stop!!" Requiring everyone to stop fighting to make sure there is no nuclear exchange. Hoping to freeze the conflict where it is. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, sross112 said: I was thinking about this incident last night. I'm wondering if Russia was escalating with the US and will continue to do so with the intent to instigate an actual exchange of shots. Maybe mess with unmanned a couple more times and then go after an AWACS or JSTARS or something with the same rationale as above (they are enabling the killing of Russians so we killed them). Hoping to provoke the US into a response of sinking the Black Sea Fleet or something similar. Russia could ratchet up the nuclear forces to pre-launch. Then having China with the UN standing up like the teacher over a playground brawl, "Enough!! EVERYBODY stop!!" Requiring everyone to stop fighting to make sure there is no nuclear exchange. Hoping to freeze the conflict where it is. The AWACS and JSTARS seem to reliably fly over NATO countries, unless they're flying with their ADS-B turned off over the BS. So an attack on one of them by Russia would be a much more overt act of aggression and likely leave them with an undeclared no-fly zone. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 48 minutes ago, sross112 said: I was thinking about this incident last night. I'm wondering if Russia was escalating with the US and will continue to do so with the intent to instigate an actual exchange of shots. Maybe mess with unmanned a couple more times and then go after an AWACS or JSTARS or something with the same rationale as above (they are enabling the killing of Russians so we killed them). Hoping to provoke the US into a response of sinking the Black Sea Fleet or something similar. Russia could ratchet up the nuclear forces to pre-launch. Then having China with the UN standing up like the teacher over a playground brawl, "Enough!! EVERYBODY stop!!" Requiring everyone to stop fighting to make sure there is no nuclear exchange. Hoping to freeze the conflict where it is. Maybe you are right. I read somewhere that Russia has a philosophy of "escalate to de-escalate". Putin might realise that the best outcome he can hope for at this point is to hold on to what he already has grabbed. But he'd need a good political reason to stop the war. The Chinese probably also want the war to end before they lose Putin (and thereby Russia) as an ally. And China might be very happy to play the role of world police for once. "China - World Peacemaker" has a nice sound to it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: "China - World Peacemaker" has a nice sound to it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russian-jet-fires-missile-near-british-aircraft/ Quote Russia, astonishingly, said it was a “technical malfunction”, and Wallace said Britain has now resumed patrols. However, the patrols now have fighter aircraft escorts Pity we don't have a friendly NATO country nearby to help recover the lost drone and provide defensive air patrols over international airspace in which these incidents are happening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 (edited) Curious development- they just announced ABW (Polish counterservice) arrested 6 persons belonging to Russian network that observed and planned to sabotage communication lines, probably trains, and critical infrastructure. Special security alert was announced. Interesting, I don't remember something like this happening before. They placed cameras along railways leading to Ukraine and in vicinity of Jasionka airport. All 6 were Belarussians or Ukrainians- it was long time discussed that in such influx of unchecked refugees we may be 100% sure there will be some Russian assets. https://www.rmf24.pl/regiony/rzeszow/news-grozna-siatka-szpiegow-rosji-rozbita-sensacyjne-doniesienia-,nId,6656628#crp_state=1 Edited March 15, 2023 by Beleg85 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 20 minutes ago, Holien said: https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russian-jet-fires-missile-near-british-aircraft/ Pity we don't have a friendly NATO country nearby to help recover the lost drone and provide defensive air patrols over international airspace in which these incidents are happening. Romania? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 38 minutes ago, DesertFox said: Romania? Turkey? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrophel Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Chipping in. I live close to a Nato airfield which is shared with civilian traffic. These days it is mostly civilian. Normally the military element is very low key. However, right now we have AWACS practising low level take off and landing all day, and the same with transport aircraft. This is causing a lot of loud noises and exceeding all agreements with local residents. Last times this occurred were prior to engagements in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. My feeling is that tensions are very high at the moment and NATO preparedness at a high level. Something is about to happen. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 20 minutes ago, JonS said: Turkey? After Erdogan threatened to kick out US from Incirlik in 2019 the relations ar not exacly going smooth, aren´t they? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Nerves as steel... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, DesertFox said: Nerves as steel... can't he just wait for a Russian AFV to come trundling along? Safer (for UA) that way. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fernando Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 49 minutes ago, JonS said: Turkey? Bulgaria? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NamEndedAllen Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 3 hours ago, sross112 said: China with the UN standing up like the teacher over a playground brawl, "Enough!! EVERYBODY stop!!" Requiring everyone to stop fighting to make sure there is no nuclear exchange. Difficulty with this scenario is that there are no international means for China, the UN or any nation to require anyone to stop doing anything, short of war. If there were, this war would already be over. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 31 minutes ago, DesertFox said: the relations are not exacly going smooth, are they? I believe that was H's point? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 (edited) Pro-Russian propagandist Shariy claimed UKR troops conducted successful local assault operation on direction to Polohy, Zaporizhzhia oblast. As if participated about 50 men with support of 3 tanks and 3-4 IFVs ] Other Russian milblogger confirmed "activation" of Zaporizhzhia front, but says only about "there is a clashes near Polohy, UKR troops are using armor" Some UKR twitter accounts have written as if they have confirmations of success. Some of them tied this operation near Plohy with a post of Serhiy Filimonov - commander of "Honor" company in "Da Vinci wolfs" batatlion. Tranlastion: Guys had first assault without me. Successful. I almost died of nerves. To conrol over the battle, where your closest friends work - it's scarier, than to go forward personally. Today there were alot of dead moth....rs Probably Filimonov now is a comamnder of "Da Vinci wolfs", but there wasn't information they were moved so fast on other direction. Also interest thing for today UKR General Staff claimed two Russian radars and one SAM complex were hit. Edited March 15, 2023 by Haiduk 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 (edited) 15 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said: Difficulty with this scenario is that there are no international means for China, the UN or any nation to require anyone to stop doing anything, short of war. China is one of the few countries with sufficient individual heft that if they said "cut it out!", everyone involved would have to at least look up from what they're doing. Not military heft (at least not yet, due to a lack of expeditionary capability), but economic. It'll be ... an interesting inflection point if/when they start wielding that power, under the guise of peacemaker. Edited March 15, 2023 by JonS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 (edited) Upd. Looks like post of Filimonov didn't relate to Zaporizhzhia attack. The very grafic video was issued with dead Russians after "Honor" assault, but it's claimed happened near Bakhmut. Other details from Polohy area. Russian milblogger says from Russian side involved elements of 219th motor-rifle regiment of 42nd motor-rifle division, 58th CAA. He thinks this is just a probe, maybe first from many in future, which can be sign of UKR offensive or false attacks so Russian command thinks that the offensive will be here Edited March 15, 2023 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 (edited) - Edited March 15, 2023 by Bulletpoint 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 (edited) UKR 2S1 (former Polish) was resqued from Lancet attack by defensive netting Probably the same Lancet already disassembled. It's turned out, except main charge it has also second small charge in the tail part. Edited March 15, 2023 by Haiduk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yet Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 1 hour ago, DesertFox said: Romania? try to search 'US basis' on Google Maps around the Black Sea. I guess USA has it covered and a few boats around by themselves. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boche Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 These MTLB modifications are getting stranger by the second! (Parody) 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, DesertFox said: Nerves as steel... The crucial question is- from where this damn oar came from? Details of Ukrainian heli raids to Mariupol, not a professional newspaper ofc. but nice graph: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9cab48a4-c340-11ed-89bb-9ee8b04f3f4c?shareToken=4ab539d1363b19763ade2f2bf9656b92 Also, This Ukrainian soldier from video of New Zelander rescuing him; he spend a hell in captivity: Edited March 15, 2023 by Beleg85 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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