How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

4 hours ago, Fenris said:

mean if RU's remaining best get bogged down in street to street city fighting and UKR pull off their own Op Uranus..

Surely it should be called Up Uranus then

[Maciej Zwolinski]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

UKR troops aren't waiting around firing positions. They typically return to underground "bunkers" to observe situations using cameras and drones. As a result, the time between detection and arty fire is critical. I read somewhere that some elite RU units were able to reduce the delay from hours to minutes. Looks like they revived old WW2 method - they assign guns to assault groups and link guns directly to the assault group leader. This is supposed to be part of the Storm tactic you've undoubtedly read about.

A "race to parapet". Not at all out of place at Somme or Passchendaele. The will probably discover sapping towards the enemy trenches next and will try to recreate the Brusilov's offensive or Viet Minh at Dien Bien Phu.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

9 hours ago, sross112 said:

First, we see a lot of figures up to 40,000 casualties for the RA in the fighting around Bahkmut. Even if you halve that number it is multiple brigades totally chewed to nothing. Yet we don't see or hear anything for months about this? Doesn't seem probable to me.

Well, there was talk of entire brigades being chewed up (46th) in Soledar in mid January. Not to nothing, but at the level of 30% casualties for the engaged battalions. Then there was a flood of very negative reports from the front in Bachmut before the rotation in last days of February (e.g. Magyar), similar in scale to what we had been hearing at the time of Soledar assault. So it is not inconceivable that roughly a brigade a month is beaten up to the extent it has to be reconstituted in the rear.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

15 hours ago, JonS said:

Or, for something completely different, only use indirect fires to engage the recon-by-death dudes, meaning your own front line guys don't suffer any cas (although level of alertness required is exhausting and manpower-intensive to sustain) which would in turn plausibly lead to an artillery duels, and I suspect the UKR forces would again welcome that developmen

Germans did that in WW2 and the Russians answer was infiltration through a denuded front by recon troops, then a mechanised assault. That is probably why Russians have to this day a ****ton of various razviedchiki. With drones in the air that obviously would have to somehow deal with the eyes in the sky . 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

18 hours ago, Grigb said:

Let us examine how fighting happens in urban areas (and why UKR are keen to hold them). The UKR defense is based on concealed firing positions with pre-planned killzones. Subterranean passageways link the fire positions through subterranean infrastructure. The Soviet-style buildings contain basement levels, which UKR soldiers connect to form a system of passageways to maneuver between fire positions.

A RU meat aka assault group advance until getting in to a killzone. Then it dies.

Or blast with high calibre artillery building after building,  Berlin-style or Grozny-style or Mariupol-style and move forward only in the smoke of collapsing builidings. Then bring in the guns forward and start again. That kind of combat is extremely material intensive and agonisingly slow, but it does protect lives. I remember the iconic pictures of 203 mm M 1931 howitzers firing over open sights into buildings on RUS WW2 and I am sure they remember it too. Now its probably ATGMs fired at buildings and thermobarics, TOS-1s, and Russian equivalent of MCLICs shot at buildings not minefields (saw that on a film from Mariupol at least once; it cracked open a big building)

In any event, AFAIK the real danger was not even this, but RUS cutting off the supply lines and just exchanging out RUS casualties on the frontline with mortared up UKR logistic assets, as well as turkey shoot when in such situation the cut off UKR units inevitably try to withdraw

 

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

18 hours ago, Grigb said:

This is my second problem the experts - they seems oblivious to the Ukrainian cultural thing.

What do you get when talking to two Ukrainians? Dozens stories about how everything is f*cked up. What do you get when talking with three Ukranians? Millions of stories about how everything is f*cked up.

This is how RU intelligence got messed up - RU cultural thing is exactly the opposite. Therefore, when RU operatives spoke with Ukrainian contacts, they heard true stories of how everything is f*cked up in Ukraine. Rest is  history.

Let me reitterate - my second concern is whether the experts used a cultural filter when listening to what their UKR contacts told them. Because it does not appear that they did.

Just in case - I've been reading straight from UKR sources about how everything is f*cked up with dead corpses everywhere, beginning from Severodonetsk (that when I started reading UKR sources), Lysichask, and then Pisky. A few weeks before Izum collapse, I read about how UKR is suffering on the frontlines at Izum.

Muzyka should have picked it up, as it is the same this side of the border. We bitch all the time, if anything UKR seem more relaxed. Maybe his Slavic spider sense was muted out by those crazy Westerners travelling with him.

[LongLeftFlank]

22 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

 

P.S.  Water-filled Huge Crater terrain object, s.v.p!   Place in Mud tile for full bogging effect.

P.P.S.  Prefab 6 man bunker. Once dug in and covered in 1.5m of packed earth, can shrug off all but a direct 152mm hit. (My grandparents in north London had an Anderson shelter in their garden, lightly used. Wouldn't have saved them from the V2 that landed at the bottom of the street, killing a schoolmate of my Dad).

(From Dmitri's feed) 

Edited March 14, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

Seems Wagner has a foothold in the 'Vostokmash' shops in the AZOM complex anchoring the north end of Bakhmut.

Suriyak, as noted, is fairly credible as pro-RU goes...

Video (no idea what feed this is, ACHTUNG)

 

 

Edited March 14, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Or blast with high calibre artillery building after building,  Berlin-style or Grozny-style or Mariupol-style and move forward only in the smoke of collapsing builidings. Then bring in the guns forward and start again. That kind of combat is extremely material intensive and agonisingly slow, but it does protect lives.

This does not seem to be an option for Russia any more as it lacks the artillery to accomplish massed destruction missions on urban terrain in any meaningful way.  And if it tried, then Ukrainian forces everywhere but that one point of interest would have the opportunity to sunbathe without fear of incoming artillery.

Russia has blown its opportunities to use mass effectively.  Whether we're talking armor, cruise missiles, aircraft, artillery, naval power, or even Human waves... they tried to do too much with too little and did it too ineffectively.  Mass is no longer a strategic advantage for Russia.

Steve

[Grigb]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

A "race to parapet". Not at all out of place at Somme or Passchendaele. The will probably discover sapping towards the enemy trenches next and will try to recreate the Brusilov's offensive or Viet Minh at Dien Bien Phu.

Khodakovsky (commander of RU infamous volunteer Vostok battalion) recently wrote a post about Brusilov offensive

Quote

...In the current demographic condition, repeating the Brusilov accomplishment means heroically destroying the life of the country with your own hands. On the contrary, as the table plainly shows, the enemy incurred substantially fewer casualties in high-quality defense, eliminating our great-great-grandfathers around four times more than he lost himself.

Given that he wrote in the context of the current RU offensive, I'd argue the RU is already duplicating the Brusilov offensive.

[kevinkin]

As the lines stabilized all the pundits are re-jockeying (is that a new phrase?) their positions at best, or pointing fingers at worst. One example:

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/03/14/is_the_very_existence_of_liberal_democracy_at_stake_in_ukraine_887081.html

Some use the past to explain the present. While others claim it can't or is irrelevant in the current situation. In the end, they will be on some talk show claiming they were at least half right, and the others half wrong. As the media mill churns. You will get more appearances staying on the fence and a pat on the back by a 30 something producer for a job well done. 

[Beleg85]

Interesting addendum to question of casevac. Situation described by one Russian milblogger, about 155 Naval Inf. attacking Vuhledar:

They attacked in BTR, which was blown off  on mines and 2 crewmembers killed. Gunner survived (wounded person in the clip). He crawled back into some ditch by his own, and waited there for evacuation. It was done thanks to drone spotting him moving. He was lucky, but there are very few skilled operators of drones who can monitor situation 24/7; other don't know how to use them. Also rants that Ukrainains are actively mining all the time around there, and even trained engineers have problems with breaching "deatch belt" as some mines are activated only on 3-4th vehicle in column.

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Muzyka should have picked it up, as it is the same this side of the border. We bitch all the time, if anything UKR seem more relaxed. Maybe his Slavic spider sense was muted out by those crazy Westerners travelling with him.

Very much truth. Also Russian culture can be fully called "society of complainers" (but in much more brutal way); we saw mass of grudges from muscovite soldiers adressing their own hierarchy, Ukrainians or generally everyone else, and their milbloggers posts and channels are litrerally streams of swearwods. Ofc. not that Russian higher charges would care, it's Russian army after all; soldiers always complain and get drunk there to levels uncomprehensbile to Western militaries, even if on wining curve. Which is not the case here.

Edited March 14, 2023 by Beleg85

[Grigb]

20 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's not just ATGMs.  We've been noting for a while now the absence of any AT weaponry, even the ubiquitous RPG-7 or the common disposable RPGs.  In this last video we saw Ukrainian dismounts firing something like 3-5 LATWs from a SINGLE VEHICLE, whereas not a single one coming from the defender.  We've seen this in other videos as well and have commented on it before.  So while these videos are not statistically valid to base a hypothesis on, there does seem to be a hint Russian forces are short on AT weapons in some way.

Steve

Today agent Murz reported that apart from shortage of shells and tubes RU are experiencing shortage of ATGMs and their operators.

Quote

The length of trenches cannot compensate for the shortage of ATGMs with operators and ammo for artillery and mortars (as well as artillery and mortars themselves).

 

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Today agent Murz reported that apart from shortage of shells and tubes RU are experiencing shortage of ATGMs and their operators.

 

Interesting.  An example of why OSINT observations should not be dismissed as "anecdotal" and "statistically irrelevant".  Confirmation bias is a major thing to keep in mind, but it is clear that if you know what to look for it is possible to at least identify hints of something important.

I'll refer back to my previous post by hypothesizing that Russia simply sold off/used too much of their stocks of AT weapons over the past 8 years in particular.

Steve

[DesertFox]

25 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Today agent Murz reported that apart from shortage of shells and tubes RU are experiencing shortage of ATGMs and their operators.

 

That´s a good one. Lets hope the whole ****show is falling apart soon.

[danfrodo]

40 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Today agent Murz reported that apart from shortage of shells and tubes RU are experiencing shortage of ATGMs and their operators.

This bodes well for UKR offensive over dry ground, where RU has to cover huge stretches of trench lines.  As has been noted, mostly by TheCapt, corrosion will be first and then weak areas identified and infiltrated and attacked.  But if the defenders are short on ATGM/RPGs then the armor support can just waltz in and blast away.  This is my great hope.  

[Battlefront.com]

All of those trenches the Russians have and continue to build are made by machines.  Yet I can't remember seeing videos of equipment being targeted while exposed during operations.  Until now:

 

Operator got VERY lucky.  Seems the force of the grenade was partially blocked by the cab support column.  Glass and hydraulic lines and glass hit first shot, obviously second shot did the rest.

And another one:

And a bit of combat footage of artillery wrecking a VDV attack.  Knocked out a tank and sent two BMDs racing off the battlefield after dumping their infantry.  Some where hit, the rest had to jog back to friendly lines.

https://www.reddit.com/r/PNVmilitary_community/comments/11r65d8/ukrainian_military_successfully_repels_russian/

Steve

[Grigb]

9 hours ago, Vic4 said:

A seemingly comprehensive though pessimistic article that is relevant to the current conversation. Interview with a commander at the front... Hopefully these headlines will be eclipsed by a successful counteroffensive. 

Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow

Ukraine’s military has been degraded by a year of heavy casualties. Front-line units are now struggling with new, poorly trained troops and a shortage of ammunition.

Read in The Washington Post: https://apple.news/ARmuLouubT82YY5BNmh8GKg

Very interesting article. Kupol story is a good example of the narrative I was talking about.

The important thing is - the narrative is not a lie; it is a very narrow point of view. You do not dismiss it; instead, you look at the reported facts using broader context without focusing too much on the opinion itself.

Kupol made two interesting statements:

1. He receives untrained or poorly trained replacements
2. UKR instructors failed their job

Quote

“I get 100 new soldiers,” Kupol said. “They don’t give me any time to prepare them. They say, ‘Take them into the battle.’ They just drop everything and run. That’s it. Do you understand why? Because the soldier doesn’t shoot. I ask him why, and he says, ‘I’m afraid of the sound of the shot.’ And for some reason, he has never thrown a grenade. … We need NATO instructors in all our training centers, and our instructors need to be sent over there into the trenches. Because they failed in their task.”

This is the core of the problem. UKR units receive extremely poorly trained replacements because UKR training system completely failed. 

Previously, UKR battalions had enough experienced men to keep going. The situation got serious with the winter offensive, heavy Bakhmut battles, and UKR preparation for the offensive. As a result, the UKR defense began to struggle against brutal, competent (enough) Wagnerites who have superior equipment.

Quote

His unit withdrew from Soledar in eastern Ukraine in the winter after being surrounded by Russian forces who later captured the city. Kupol recalled how hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers in units fighting alongside his battalion simply abandoned their positions, even as fighters for Russia’s Wagner mercenary group pressed ahead.

 

The problem is quite serious. It appears that AFU training schools were not reformed from RU practices. It's the same ineptitude caused by apathy and infantilism that plagues RU army. Following is a description of the UKR training problem given by UKR volunteer Roman Donik.

Quote

The sad fact is that I can't share images from sergeants' schools of Ground Forces training facilities. Because it's as bad as hell there. Nobody cares about anything there. Since they don't work towards a goal, they don't teach, they just spend time there. Because everyone on the training grounds believes that the war is far away and will never reach them. And lunch is more essential to them than the lesson schedule. Because they issue certifications to people but do not give knowledge or skills.

One of the [training] commands sent fifty drill sergeants to us [new local infantry school] to teach the first batch of riflemen. Those who were mobilized as sergeants and who have [necessary MOS] entries in the [personal] military book. With certifications and everything else as specified in the book. But we're not in a book; we're in a war. As a result, we are extremely picky about the instructors...

We're forcing everyone to go through target practice. Words are only words, but the [target] paper will reveal all. A4 sheet, 100 meters. 10 shots. That's it; nothing else is required. I won't go into specifics, but we didn't involve any of these guys in training. These guys had been sitting idle for two weeks, and when we offered to enhance them on our courses, just two people expressed an interest. They are now studying and doing well. And this is a common occurrence when people are sent to teach something they are unable to do themselves.

 

So, my opinion, UKR frontline non-elite units are now failing to hold Wagnerites for a variety of reasons (lack of mortars, night-fighting equipment, Wagnerites improved tactics), but primarily because they do not receive adequately trained replacements due to the critical failure of the UKR training system (which was not reformed from RU practices).

[Billy Ringo]

40 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

This bodes well for UKR offensive over dry ground, where RU has to cover huge stretches of trench lines.  As has been noted, mostly by TheCapt, corrosion will be first and then weak areas identified and infiltrated and attacked.  But if the defenders are short on ATGM/RPGs then the armor support can just waltz in and blast away.  This is my great hope.  

Or, expecting a Ukrainian spring offensive leveraging columns of newly delivered western tanks, Russia is saving ATGM/RPGs as much as possible to blunt the campaign.  To minimize the impact and value of the armor as quickly as possible.  To make those western donors question the value of their Ukrainian support. This is my great concern.

Hate to be a downer, but this has crossed my mind more than once with regards to so-called Russian shortages of ammo.

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Billy Ringo said:

Or, expecting a Ukrainian spring offensive leveraging columns of newly delivered western tanks, Russia is saving ATGM/RPGs as much as possible to blunt the campaign.  To minimize the impact and value of the armor as quickly as possible.  To make those western donors question the value of their Ukrainian support. This is my great concern.

Hate to be a downer, but this has crossed my mind more than once with regards to so-called Russian shortages of ammo.

Interesting thought.  But I wonder how likely this is given that RU is burning up every other kind of resource in the current attacks -- men, armor, shells, barrels; so why would ATGMs be spared?  A critical tool for defense of a very long line would be mobile reserve units and RU is burning up lots of the vehicles needed for that.

[Hapless]

Meanwhile...
 

Quote

Two Russian Su-27 aircraft conducted an unsafe and unprofessional intercept with a U.S. Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance unmanned MQ-9 aircraft that was operating within international airspace over the Black Sea today. 

At approximately 7:03 AM (CET), one of the Russian Su-27 aircraft struck the propeller of the MQ-9, causing U.S. forces to have to bring the MQ-9 down in international waters. Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner. This incident demonstrates a lack of competence in addition to being unsafe and unprofessional. 

“Our MQ-9 aircraft was conducting routine operations in international airspace when it was intercepted and hit by a Russian aircraft, resulting in a crash and complete loss of the MQ-9,” said U.S. Air Force Gen. James B. Hecker, commander, U.S. Air Forces Europe and Air Forces Africa. “In fact, this unsafe and unprofessional act by the Russians nearly caused both aircraft to crash.”

https://www.eucom.mil/pressrelease/42314/russian-aircraft-collides-into-us-unmanned-system-in-international-waters

Edited March 14, 2023 by Hapless

[Battlefront.com]

40 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

Or, expecting a Ukrainian spring offensive leveraging columns of newly delivered western tanks, Russia is saving ATGM/RPGs as much as possible to blunt the campaign.  To minimize the impact and value of the armor as quickly as possible.  To make those western donors question the value of their Ukrainian support. This is my great concern.

Hate to be a downer, but this has crossed my mind more than once with regards to so-called Russian shortages of ammo.

I don't see any evidence of Russia planning anything beyond its immediate needs.  Russia's planning and execution has been decidedly in pursuit of short term goals.  In fact, on any given topic someone in the West would say "here's how to do it right, for the long term" the Russians wind up doing exactly the opposite.  Which makes sense because Russia has always believed if it could just push a bit harder it would be enough to get Ukraine to collapse.  It's an all-or-nothing strategy for the most part.

I'm not at all worried about Russia having some secret stash of hundreds of thousands of shells and mountains of AT weaponry just waiting for the right moment.  That would be very, very un-Russian.  It would also be very un-Putin like to hold back while getting his arse handed to him.  He believes that the long term works itself out as long as you have control over the short term.

Steve

[Holien]

37 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

Hate to be a downer, but this has crossed my mind more than once with regards to so-called Russian shortages of ammo

Hmmm I wonder how effective Russian just in time logistics are to get these held back weapons to where they need them?

Also holding them back in weapons dumps could be a big loss when it goes ....

Just a thought...

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Meanwhile...
 

https://www.eucom.mil/pressrelease/42314/russian-aircraft-collides-into-us-unmanned-system-in-international-waters

Yeah, and it is also illegal.  Technically attacking an unmanned vehicle like this is an act of war.  It's not a good sign that Putin has revived doing stupid stunts like this after so much time spent avoiding them.

Steve

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Hapless said:

Meanwhile...
 

https://www.eucom.mil/pressrelease/42314/russian-aircraft-collides-into-us-unmanned-system-in-international-waters

Some days ago, RU Nats discussed the need for RU to begin crashing US intelligence drones to send a message to the US on intelligence assistance for UKR.

RU are very afraid of UKR offensive.