How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

12 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 

I am going to give RAND and the others who wildly overestimated Russia's capabilities prior to the war and guess the single biggest reason for their errors was adopting the "assume the worst case and plan accordingly" mentality rife within the defense industry. 

Even with this mindset people are running around with their hair on fire trying to find a few thousand more 155 shells  random countries might have bought and forgotten about thirty years ago.

 

Edited March 11, 2023 by dan/california

[Maciej Zwolinski]

Just now, Haiduk said:

Yes, full unit name: 30th mech.brigade named after kniaz' (prince) Kostiantyn Ostrozkyi

Good choice of patron! 

[sburke]

27 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Someone needs to sue him, and get discovery. Interesting question who would have standing to do that? Fox's epic mistake was to get in the legal version of a razor blade cage match with someone who had very clear and obvious standing to claim injury, and enough money for a real legal team. 

sue for what?  Dominion has a case because they feel they can prove Fox deliberately slandered them for financial gain.  Mcgregor can't be sued for being an idiot.  If he could we'd all be in a lot of trouble. 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Good choice of patron! 

Yeah, really famous historical person, not fully appreciated by Ukrainain history, so, alas he is not well-known in masses. Glorious knight age of Ukrianian lands in Grand Duchy of Lithuania still blank spot for many Ukrainans. This is because Soviet tradition, which partially transfered into Ukrainain historical science of 90th. When I studied in school in Soviet times, and we had lessons of history of Ukraine (thin book in comparison with a book of history of USSR) that developments were: Kyivan Rus' - > Mongol invasion -> Zaporozhian Sich. Whole age after Mongol invasion - about 300 years were just thrown out and were contained in several sentences in style "then Ukrainain lands grabbed Lithuanian feodals, which opressed peasants and then Ukraine was grabbed by Polish magnats". Ukraine and Belarus in GDL/PLC age just breaks Soviet historian conceptions about "leading role of Moscow and gathering of primordial Russian lands" and "declined wild lands, which could rise only after reunion with Russia" 

Ukrianian history also relativly long time didn't consider this age as "our", just because Ukraine wasn't formal sovereign state in that time. But soon great books of our medievist Natalia Yakovenko appeared about this period, about Ukrainian nobles in service of PLC, so we could discover more this terra incognita. Interesting that in 2010 pro-Russian fractions in Parliament blocked the bill of 600-year anniversary celebration of Grunwald battle, because "this wasn't Ukrainian history" %)          

Edited March 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, I really think the IRS and FBI should investigate his bank account.  Macgregor can not be THAT stupid and mentally ill, yet also be able to make cohesive sentences.  Most likely he is on a payroll.

"What is stopping Russia from rolling over the Dnepr, taking Kyiv, and going to the Polish border?" he asks.  Well, for starters, Russia is topping Russia.

Good lord.  There's one thing to play Devil's Advocate, it's another thing to be hopelessly bogged down by Cold War logic, but this?  Pure insanity or, as I posit, payment for services rendered.

Steve

I think a lot of these folks are on the payroll, though probably through multiple cut out lobbying firms & agencies.  The reason this is plausible to me is because of all the folks that actually were on Putin's payroll that we know about -- Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort, etc.  When I hear the words of Rand Paul, Tucker C, MacGregor, Greenwald, I have to believe that no one can be that stupid & evil w/o some incentive.  Putin is a straight up mass murdering, child stealing terrorist and they think he's the good guy in this????  

[Haiduk]

Despite Russian milbloggers and Prigozhyn complain about ammunition shortage, our soldiers don't confirm that intensity of Russian shellings around Bakhmut radically changed. 

More, this night and morning Russian long-range artillery and MLRS Uragan/Smerch/Tornado intensivly shelled towns Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kurakhove, several impacts were in cities Kramatorsk and Sloviansk

Sounds of night shelling in Kurakhove 

State Emergency Service extinguishes the fire during enemy shelling in Kostiantynivka

 

Edited March 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

Summary from this guy again today, has a couple videos I hadn't seen before.  At the bottom is a nice LOTR reference.  Some talk of Leo1, bradley delivery dates.  Supposedly AMX10s are already there, be interesting to see how they get used.  They are supposed to be infantry support, which could be quite handy in taking defensive positions -- I assume AMX10 type vehicles require significantly less training & maintenence than tanks -- y'all think that's correct? 

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/7/2156736/-Ukraine-update-Russia-s-big-winter-offensive-has-managed-zilch-gains

 

[dan/california]

31 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Yeah, really famous historical person, not fully appreciated by Ukrainain history, so, alas he is not well-known in masses. Glorious knight age of Ukrianian lands in Grand Duchy of Lithuania still blank spot for many Ukrainans. This is because Soviet tradition, which partially transfered into Ukrainain historical science of 90th. When I studied in school in Soviet times, and we had lessons of history of Ukraine (thin book in comparison with a book of history of USSR) that developments were: Kyivan Rus' - > Mongol invasion -> Zaporozhian Sich. Whole age after Mongol invasion - about 300 years were just thrown out and were contained in several sentences in style "then Ukrainain lands grabbed Lithuanian feodals, which opressed peasants and then Ukriane was grabbed by Polish magnats". Ukraine and Belarus in GDL/PLC age was just breaks Soviet historian conceptions about "leading role of Moscow and gathering of primordial Russian lands" and "declined wild lands, which could rise only after reunion with Russia" 

Ukrianian history also relativly long time didn't consider this age as "our", just because Ukraine wasn't formal sovereign state in that time. But soon great books of our medievist Natalia Yakovenko appeared about this period, about Ukrainian nobles in service of PLC, so we could discover more this terra incognita. Interesting that in 2010 pro-Russian fractions in Parliament blocked the bill of 600-year anniversary celebration of Grunwald battle, because "this wasn't Ukrianian history" %)          

The whole era needs a good historical novel or five. A ton of conflict and history that gets zero exposure in English, and apparently not enough in Ukrainian.

 

[sross112]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

What struck me is the underlying end-game dichotomy - “we know we will never dominate the world but we have to dominate something”.   There is a tone of insecurity and compensation for that throughout.  This is beyond all the social and physical metrics rubbed all over everything, it speaks to the Russian certainty.  It is too easy to simply write this off as “duh, see Russia”.  It speaks to something we spoke about earlier, the theory of Russian defeat.  So how do you get a nation that is built on that certainty to renegotiate with itself peacefully?

I don't want to be understood wrong or people think that I am equating these countries or their people to the cesspool that is Russia. It is just that the Russians once were one of the two super powers so there is a correlation between having been at the top and then not so much. Not trying to insult or ruffle feathers, just looking at a historical comparison to maybe get some insight into answers to @The_Capt 's question.

How did the UK, France and Spain renegotiate their role in the world with themselves? All were dominant powers at one time. Germany and Japan are different scenarios (defeated and occupied) so don't fit this category. The others were once THE major players and knew it. How did they cope with the transition to becoming 2nd or 3rd power tier countries?

[akd]

Ukrainian team and drone work together to ambush Russians in the fog:

Russian company eliminated:

 

Edited March 11, 2023 by akd

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, sross112 said:

I don't want to be understood wrong or people think that I am equating these countries or their people to the cesspool that is Russia. It is just that the Russians once were one of the two super powers so there is a correlation between having been at the top and then not so much. Not trying to insult or ruffle feathers, just looking at a historical comparison to maybe get some insight into answers to @The_Capt 's question.

How did the UK, France and Spain renegotiate their role in the world with themselves? All were dominant powers at one time. Germany and Japan are different scenarios (defeated and occupied) so don't fit this category. The others were once THE major players and knew it. How did they cope with the transition to becoming 2nd or 3rd power tier countries?

Britain and France basically learned that colonial wars were too expensive, and you usually lost anyway. They were democracies so the amount of pain they were willing to tolerate, was a fraction of what Putin is prepared to put Russia through. They cut bait...

Britain losing to the U.S. Colonies definitely changed the way it dealt with the other Colonies where the native population was mostly replaced. that is its own special case.

I am not sure that I understand the process in Spain all that well. But it is wroth pointing out Spain did most of its losing considerably earlier.

[Bulletpoint]

12 minutes ago, akd said:

Ukrainian team and drone work together to ambush Russians in the fog:

 

One of the Russians is armed with... a stick?

[akd]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

One of the Russians is armed with... a stick?

He appeared to be already wounded and using it as a cane / crutch.

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, akd said:

He appeared to be already wounded and using it as a cane / crutch.

You're right, I see that now. First time I watched the video, I didn't full screen it and skipped some of the first part.

Seems the other Russian was captured alive.

[JonS]

47 minutes ago, sross112 said:

How did the UK, France and Spain renegotiate their role in the world with themselves?

 

For the UK: while they 'won' a couple of world wars, the cumulative effect broke them financially. Also, as part of winning the second one they had to agree to letting India - 'the jewel in the crown' - go it's own way which non-violently began the process of dissolution of empire.

Also, in winning the second one they deliberately allied themselves with the US, then got to watch in detail as the US (and USSR) eclipsed them militarily over the course of a few years.

There were the occasional convulsive twitches (see: Suez) but the financial and military reality was a bit too hard to overlook. They also turned inward for a couple of decades to focus on the welfare state and a land fit for heroes, and when they looked outward again it was to the EU, which is inherently collaborative and peaceful.

(Typing on phone, so above is highly simplified. I'm well aware that in a number of colonies, including India, the fight for independence involved blood)

I'm not sure that offers any real useful lessons or guides for dealing with Russia, other than the need to involve them meaningfully in international collaborative organisations from which they gain value by collaborating - which is very different to how they have traditionally engaged with e.g. the UN.

Edited March 11, 2023 by JonS

[Fernando]

Spain lost a good part of its American empire in wars of independence (in a way they were civil wars) during the second and third decades of the 19th century. However she continued to hold Cuba, Puerto Rico, the Philippines, the Carolinas, Guam etc. Mentally it continued to consider itself an empire and for this reason it intervened in Morocco, Vietnam, annexed Santo Domingo between 1861 and 1865, etc.

Everything fell apart with the Spanish-American War of 1898. It lost the entire overseas empire. The country mentally fell into crisis (it is known as the crisis of 1898) and went from considering itself a power to considering itself ****. The Rif War (1911-1927), with the disasters at Barranco del Lobo and Annual, did not help either. This is one of the many reasons that Spain did not get involved in world wars. We went from being a proud country capable of everything (the Spanish of the 16th century said that they had achieved things that surpassed those of the Romans) to nothing. Since then, Spain has been fighting to recover its self-esteem.

By the way, the war of 1898 is the reason why the Spanish population is, in my opinion, predominantly anti-American (I'm talking about the American government, not the American population, which is well received here). Unlike other European countries, Spain owes nothing to the US. On the contrary, the US not only ended the remains of the Spanish empire in 1898 but also supported the Franco dictatorship. I am very pro-American, much more than the average in Spain, but sometimes that also hurts me.

In short, a few serious defeats go a long way in helping a country rethink things more realistically.

Edited March 11, 2023 by Fernando

[Battlefront.com]

48 minutes ago, JonS said:

 

For the UK: while they 'won' a couple of world wars, the cumulative effect broke them financially. Also, as part of winning the second one they had to agree to letting India - 'the jewel in the crown' - go it's own way which non-violently began the process of dissolution of empire.

Also, in winning the second one they deliberately allied themselves with the US, then got to watch in detail as the US (and USSR) eclipsed them militarily over the course of a few years.

There were the occasional convulsive twitches (see: Suez) but the financial and military reality was a bit too hard to overlook. They also turned inward for a couple of decades to focus on the welfare state and a land fit for heroes, and when they looked outward again it was to the EU, which is inherently collaborative and peaceful.

(Typing on phone, so above is highly simplified. I'm well aware that in a number of colonies, including India, the fight for independence involved blood)

I'm not sure that offers any real useful lessons or guides for dealing with Russia, other than the need to involve them meaningfully in international collaborative organisations from which they gain value by collaborating - which is very different to how they have traditionally engaged with e.g. the UN.

Basically, Britain was tired of trying to stay on top and decided it was better to be happy than ruler of the world.  Well, that's my boiling down of things The point is that Britain, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, The Netherlands, etc. all had to be humbled and pushed into economic distress multiple times before they finally decided that being a world power wasn't all that great after all.

If you note one common thing about all the previous empires that fell... the home country got trimmed down to what it started out as before imperial expansion.  A few territories here and there still under some degree of control, sure, but a shadow of the height of empire.  Russia has not gone through this phase.  Yet.

Russia hasn't been humbled enough.  This war is headed towards that end, but I think Russia needs to break apart before it will cease being an aggressive, negative influence on the world.

Steve

(Edit- Ninja'd by a Spaniard )

[Elmar Bijlsma]

The shocking aspect of the video of the two Russians caught out in the open is that they do so little to help themselves.  No attempt at fighting or running away and a very inept effort to surrender given where he has his rifle. The survivor owes his life to the drone operator taking pity and signalling to the infantry.

 

And not the first time we have seen this complete lack of a meaningful response to the situation they are in. I am generally not at home to pity for Russian soldiers but seeing such stuff comes awfully close.

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, Fernando said:

Spain lost a good part of its American empire in wars of independence (in a way they were civil wars) during the second and third decades of the 19th century. However she continued to hold Cuba, Puerto Rico, the Philippines, the Carolinas, Guam etc. Mentally it continued to consider itself an empire and for this reason it intervened in Morocco, Vietnam, annexed Santo Domingo between 1861 and 1865, etc.

Everything fell apart with the Spanish-American War of 1898. It lost the entire overseas empire. The country mentally fell into crisis (it is known as the crisis of 1898) and went from considering itself a power to considering itself ****. The Rif War (1911-1927), with the disasters at Barranco del Lobo and Annual, did not help either. This is one of the many reasons that Spain did not get involved in world wars. We went from being a proud country capable of everything (the Spanish of the 16th century said that they had achieved things that surpassed those of the Romans) to nothing. Since then, Spain has been fighting to recover its self-esteem.

By the way, the war of 1898 is the reason why the Spanish population is, in my opinion, predominantly anti-American (I'm talking about the American government, not the American population, which is well received here). Unlike other European countries, Spain owes nothing to the US. On the contrary, the US not only ended the remains of the Spanish empire in 1898 but also supported the Franco dictatorship. I am very pro-American, much more than the average in Spain, but sometimes that also hurts me.

In short, a few serious defeats go a long way in helping a country rethink things more realistically.

A few minutes of googling has made it clear i know even less than I thought about Spanish history from 1815 until 1937...

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If you note one common thing about all the previous empires that fell... the home country got trimmed down to what it started out as before imperial expansion.

It is basically a question of which century and decade Russia has to be rolled back to to become a rational enterprise.

[Haiduk]

Meanwhile Russians gradually activate own actions on Kupiansk direction in Kharkiv oblast. Since 6th of February they began attacks on Hrianykivka village and at last about 17th of Feb could push off UKR trops from this villlage completely. After about three weeks pause, Russians, according to Mashovets, tried to push off UKR troops from positions around tiny village Masiutivka (22 inhabitants before a war). They attacked twice with platoon- size forces without armor support. First time that were elements of 138th motor-rifle brigade, attacked from Hrianykivka. In the second time these were elements of 25th motor-rifle brigade, attacked from positions south from Horobivka. Both attempts failed.

According to Mashovets, Russians probably have a plans of combined offensive operations in first order on Kupiansk direction with forces of Troops Groupment "Zapad" ("West") and in case of significant success, they can launch offensive on Vovchansk direction with forces of Operative Group "Belgorod" (about 7500-8000 troops) 

In recent days, Russians, probably preparing to offensive, began to make in hidden way passages in own minefields and to remove our minefields on section Dvorichna - Lyman Pershyi. For this were involved units of 30th engineer-sapper regiment of 6th CAA of Western military district. 

In area of Tavilzhanka village deployed 2 BTGs of 138th motor-rifle brigade, including assault units "Storm". In area of Vilshana village, were concentrated also 2 BTGs of 25th mech. brigade. Both 138th and 25th belong to 6th CAA of Western military district.

Edited March 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Fenris]

Defending from a trench whilst being fired upon.  I keep thinking someone should start mass producing those little one-eye pipe periscopes so these guys can see what's over the berm.

 

[sburke]

@Haiduk you hear anything on this topic?

Outskirts of Bakhmut littered with corpses of Russians, and collaborators are fleeing to Russia – Ukrainian official (yahoo.com)

Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC), has said that the outskirts of Bakhmut are littered with corpses of Russian invaders, and no one takes them away.

Quote

 

Danilov also noted that huge queues are recorded leaving the occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts for Russia.

Those collaborators who helped [the Russians] are now waiting in line to leave the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. They feel that soon, it may be "hot" there, and many things could happen… [Ukrainian troops are now] not so far from Donetsk, Luhansk, and our other glorious cities. They (collaborators – ed.) feel everything that happens there, and shortly, they will feel much more.

 

 

[Elmar Bijlsma]

27 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Defending from a trench whilst being fired upon.  I keep thinking someone should start mass producing those little one-eye pipe periscopes so these guys can see what's over the berm.

I am surprised we haven't seen some sort of camera/scope with a tablet or phone type display attached. Heck, you could get something pretty useful by duck taping a small drain camera to a rifle.

[sross112]

5 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

I am surprised we haven't seen some sort of camera/scope with a tablet or phone type display attached. Heck, you could get something pretty useful by duck taping a small drain camera to a rifle.

Or even 4" PVC through the berm for observation and shooting or modern day sandbag crenelle. 

I find the lack of firing steps, firing positions, and crew served positions in a lot of these videos disturbing. Without good observation and control of approaches with fire, a trench is a grave.