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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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Ukrainians are reportedly counterattacking across mos of the Bakhmut front, not only in the north, but also in Krasne and eastern part of the city itself. Reserves are being committed by the UA side. Caution is of course advised on these claims, but it looks quite good:

Also, to add an insult to the injury, the kessel that is being created is shaped just like a thingy:

 

Edited by Huba
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2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UPD about claimed explosions on Belaruisain airfield Machulishchi

Belarusian sourse "Belaruskiy Gayun" claims A-50 "AWACS" can be damaged because of ammunition was dropped from the air. Likely drone attack. Still no confirmations. If this true, this can interfere to coming missile strike, because A-50 on the eve of strikes and during first salvo usually try to detect our AD positions. 

Зображення

I really hope they got the A-50!

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Huba said:

Ukrainians are reportedly counterattacking across mos of the Bakhmut front, not only in the north, but also in Krasne and eastern part of the city itself. Reserves are being committed by the UA side. Caution is of course advised on these claims, but it looks quite good:

 

Hm... I wonder what sources he used? Last what I've seen on UKR publics was this 6 hours ago:

In area of Ivanivske the assult is repelled. Our forces counter-atatcked and have retaken several positions. North, East, South - all in stable form. Mother...kers are trying to launch unguided rockets from jets, this is rather unpleasant. But Bakhmut still holds!  

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5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

I really hope they got the A-50!

Fighter-Bomber TG confirmed the attack, but denied A-50 was hit

Зображення

...According to my information no A-50s were suffered anywhere. Hits on Machulishchi took place. And there were results. But for this result Belarusians will ask from khokhols. And we will help with all forces. 

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2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Hm... I wonder what sources he used? Last what I've seen on UKR publics was this 6 hours ago:

In area of Ivanivske the assult is repelled. Our forces counter-atatcked and have retaken several positions. North, East, South - all in stable form. Mother...kers are trying to launch unguided rockets from jets, this is rather unpleasant. But Bakhmut still holds!  

These are "twitter experts", there's no way they will link their sources 😕  But in general Artur Micek is quite reliable, and reportedly has some contacts on the ground. But given Wolski is also posting this, it has to be present on some more mainstream Telegram channels too.  This narrative seems to be picking up on the Twitter at the moment, I'll post the primary sources as soon as these are revealed there.

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Seems China doesn't really believe what it posted for a Ukraine proposal.  From the G20 meeting

G-20 meeting in India ends without consensus on Ukraine war (yahoo.com)

Quote

The second paragraph of the declaration, which is now unacceptable to Russia and China, said, "It is essential to uphold international law and the multilateral system that safeguards peace and stability. ... The use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible. The peaceful resolution of conflicts, efforts to address crises, as well as diplomacy and dialogue, are vital. Today’s era must not be of war."

Shocked I am!  :rolleyes:

Edited by sburke
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1 minute ago, Huba said:

These are "twitter experts", there's no way they will link their sources 😕  But in general Artur Micek is quite reliable, and reportedly has some contacts on the ground. But given Wolski is also posting this, it has to be present on some more mainstream Telegram channels too.  This narrative seems to be picking up on the Twitter at the moment, I'll post the primary sources as soon as these are revealed there.

He has drawn own blue arrows as if UKR forces already almost cutt off Wagners on the north. Let it be of course, but If it happened UA Twitter now would already be trumeting %) 

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2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ya not sure where this is coming from and why.  I mean the UA is holding on while the RA breaks itself (again), so it is logical that like last time they will follow up with an offensive - this cycle can repeat a few more times at least.  So I do not know where the crisis is in all this that would signal that Ukraine needs to sue for peace.  I am far more willing to believe that Russia is running to China for a solution as things on their end are more likely approaching breaking points.

NATO nations suddenly knocking knees does not track - sounds more like Russian wishful thinking to be honest. 

Yes, let’s hope so. The political stuff going on in NATO back rooms *might* be leaking a bit though. Talks about one (or two?) members unwilling to budge on admitting more new candidates, whether Sweden or Ukraine. So some members float an alternative way forward for Ukraine. And also as a kinda sorta semi-concession for Russian face-saving for a potential peace plan. I haven’t heard any talk at all for a very long time about NATO membership for Ukraine. So possibly some members are trying out compromise possibilities? 

I think we all agree that so long as the Western military aid continues to flow, Ukraine should be growing stronger, while Russia struggles to tread water. It’s that caveat about political will and how it varies in each country that is always a bit worrisome the longer the war continues. We all know that is the wild card, the only one that Russia can hope for to get something out of the deep mess it’s mired in.

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34 minutes ago, Huba said:

Ukrainians are reportedly counterattacking across mos of the Bakhmut front, not only in the north, but also in Krasne and eastern part of the city itself. Reserves are being committed by the UA side. Caution is of course advised on these claims, but it looks quite good:

Also, to add an insult to the injury, the kessel that is being created is shaped just like a thingy:

 

Months of shaping operations by Ukraine to achieve this geometry and cut it off 3 days after the anniversary of the invasion.

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36 minutes ago, Huba said:

Ukrainians are reportedly counterattacking across mos of the Bakhmut front, not only in the north, but also in Krasne and eastern part of the city itself. Reserves are being committed by the UA side. Caution is of course advised on these claims, but it looks quite good:

Also, to add an insult to the injury, the kessel that is being created is shaped just like a thingy:

 

I've wondered about this too. Is it just  Wagner's thugs screwing up the RA's already shaky organisation?

 

 

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Today's evening "Madyar" report doesn't tell about any UKR counter-offensive on the north. He just tells about north - "changable situation", "despite tough enemy pressure we keep control over situation" and "I can't detalize it now". Also he told about a weather - a thaw came to Bakhmut, snow is melting, terrain is very muddy, fog around. 

Here is some skirmish from Bakhmut outskirts - water and mud in the trench 

 

Edited by Haiduk
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1 hour ago, Huba said:

Ukrainians are reportedly counterattacking across mos of the Bakhmut front, not only in the north, but also in Krasne and eastern part of the city itself. Reserves are being committed by the UA side. Caution is of course advised on these claims, but it looks quite good:

59 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Hm... I wonder what sources he used? Last what I've seen on UKR publics was this 6 hours ago:

In area of Ivanivske the assult is repelled. Our forces counter-atatcked and have retaken several positions. North, East, South - all in stable form. Mother...kers are trying to launch unguided rockets from jets, this is rather unpleasant. But Bakhmut still holds!  

Excellent news! Let's hope it is not temporary. Wolski has tendency to getting sensationalist, but Micek is better and have sources close to the fight. Let's wait for Lachowski, he is on the place so will probably know more.

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

This is Opytne settlement near Donetsk airfield.

Damn, they showed this clip in most evening news today saying it is now how Bakhmut looks like. Media-workers also should read this forum too.😉

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2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Excellent news! Let's hope it is not temporary. Wolski has tendency to getting sensationalist, but Micek is better and have sources close to the fight. Let's wait for Lachowski, he is on the place so will probably know more.

Lachowski is confirming that this is more or less what's going on, though he does not mention if he's on the spot, or just repeating other sources:

Also, it looks like there might be some connection between the reported counterattack and UA blowing a dam yesterday to flood the exact area through which RU have to move to/ from the cauldron:

 

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20 minutes ago, Huba said:

Lachowski is confirming that this is more or less what's going on, though he does not mention if he's on the spot, or just repeating other sources

Probably he is best souce of info on the ground, but he mainly hangs out with 93rd, 30th and some territorials + Azov. Given that 46 Brig. (that is supposed to leading the counterattack along 17th Thank) arrived later into  the area, he may have less contacts there as he stated once.

But we should wait, it seems as very risky move- Russians have a lot of firepower at hand there. But you are right attack seems to be connected to flooding- Ukrainians probably try to create some artificial barrier as next line of defence, NW of Bakhmut. Mud season is coming closer every day, which can turn part of this terrain into marsh and help stabilize the front. Interesting development.

EDIT: Hangs out, not hand out 🤦‍♂️

Edited by Beleg85
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4 hours ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

There must be a higher level HQ over these Battalion sized Assault Detachments... did I miss that somewhere in that link? Where are they getting their ISR from? Coordination with neighboring formations? Logistics coordination?

This was addressed as part of the discussion in the Twitter thread. As @Beleg85and @Haidukmention these are ad-hoc formations that seemingly can only be generated by "division-sized" organic formations. I think you may want to have a professional chat with this guy, btw.

As @chrisl

 

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1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yanqui go home lol

 

 

That made the cut.  It is now in my folder of humorous memes from this war :)

As funny as this is, it is a pretty good way to frame how badly the war is going for Russia because almost none of the things in the meme are exaggerated.  Instead, they are reasonable analogs to actual events in this war.

Very well done.

Steve

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