How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

Believe it or not, that instrument is the forerunner of today's PC. It had a lot in common with the punch cards from the earliest PCs.

[kevinkin]

Yuck

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-support-putin-war-ukraine-050033692.html

“If the current political system remains with the existing leaders for another 10 years or so, that’s a full school cycle for indoctrination,” said Ekaterina Schulmann, a Russian political scientist now based in Berlin. “And not so much in patriotism and this expansionist nonsense but in hypocrisy and getting used to lies.”

Perhaps the next cold war will not pit good vs evil, not free markets vs controlled economies, but winners vs losers. Losers of all kinds. Where ideology takes back seat to "if you can't beat em, keep trying until you do". Whack a mole on the global boardwalk. 

Well here is a move in no direction:

In a debate at the UN general assembly marking the anniversary of the invasion and seen as a key barometer of the state of world opinion, China intervened to present itself as above the conflict by proposing a catalogue of measures: a ceasefire, dialogue, security guarantees for Russia, protection of civilians and the upholding of territorial integrity.

The deputy Chinese envoy to the UN, Dai Bing, insisted the west was worsening the situation by arming Ukraine, saying: “Adding fuel to the fire will only exacerbate tensions”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/23/germany-and-china-clash-over-wests-supply-of-weapons-to-ukraine

More end game; new cold war stuff:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/how-and-when-the-war-in-ukraine-will-end/ar-AA17QYuc

Different analogs like Korea/cease-fire mediated by actors like the United Nations, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates discussed. 

To put a twist on an old Yiddish expression, people predict, and war laughs.

Bloomberg: How Biden’s Shock-and-Awe Tactic Is Failing to Stop Russia The economic punishment of Russia was touted as a game-changer. Instead it’s turned into a war of attrition — and a race against time.

Yuck, time always gets in the way: the world grows tired while it's taking a year to field M1A1s.

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/02/23/tanks-might-not-reach-ukraine-this-year-us-army-secretary-says/

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by kevinkin

[Seminole]

 

In October 2022, about eight months after the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the University of Cambridge in the UK harmonized surveys that asked the inhabitants of 137 countries about their views of the West, Russia, and China. The findings in the combined study are robust enough to demand our serious attention.

• Of the 6.3 billion people who live outside of the West, 66% feel positively towards Russia, and 70% feel positively towards China.

• 75% of respondents in South Asia, 68% of respondents  in Francophone Africa, and 62% of respondents in Southeast Asia report feeling positively toward Russia.

• Public opinion of Russia remains positive in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, India, Pakistan, and Vietnam.

…

Nelson Mandela often said that it was the Soviet Union’s support, both moral and material, that helped inspire South Africans to overthrow the Apartheid regime. Because of this, Russia is still viewed in a favorable light by many African countries. And once independence came for these countries, it was the Soviet Union that supported them, despite its own limited resources. Egypt’s Aswan Dam, completed in 1971, was designed by the Moscow-based Hydro Project Institute and financed in large part by the Soviet Union. The Bhilai Steel Plant, one of the first large infrastructure projects in newly independent India, was set up by the USSR in 1959.

Other countries also benefited from the political and economic support provided by the former Soviet Union, including Ghana, Mali, Sudan, Angola, Benin, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Mozambique. On February 18, 2023, at the African Union Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, the foreign minister of Uganda, Jeje Odongo, had this to say: “We were colonized and forgave those who colonized us. Now the colonizers are asking us to be enemies of Russia, who never colonized us. Is that fair? Not for us. Their enemies are their enemies. Our friends are our friends.”

[LongLeftFlank]

17 minutes ago, Seminole said:

 

and therefore.... what?

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Lol 

 

Man, I hate that bloody noise.

[Aragorn2002]

30 minutes ago, Seminole said:

 

In October 2022, about eight months after the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the University of Cambridge in the UK harmonized surveys that asked the inhabitants of 137 countries about their views of the West, Russia, and China. The findings in the combined study are robust enough to demand our serious attention.

• Of the 6.3 billion people who live outside of the West, 66% feel positively towards Russia, and 70% feel positively towards China.

• 75% of respondents in South Asia, 68% of respondents  in Francophone Africa, and 62% of respondents in Southeast Asia report feeling positively toward Russia.

• Public opinion of Russia remains positive in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, India, Pakistan, and Vietnam.

…

Nelson Mandela often said that it was the Soviet Union’s support, both moral and material, that helped inspire South Africans to overthrow the Apartheid regime. Because of this, Russia is still viewed in a favorable light by many African countries. And once independence came for these countries, it was the Soviet Union that supported them, despite its own limited resources. Egypt’s Aswan Dam, completed in 1971, was designed by the Moscow-based Hydro Project Institute and financed in large part by the Soviet Union. The Bhilai Steel Plant, one of the first large infrastructure projects in newly independent India, was set up by the USSR in 1959.

Other countries also benefited from the political and economic support provided by the former Soviet Union, including Ghana, Mali, Sudan, Angola, Benin, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Mozambique. On February 18, 2023, at the African Union Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, the foreign minister of Uganda, Jeje Odongo, had this to say: “We were colonized and forgave those who colonized us. Now the colonizers are asking us to be enemies of Russia, who never colonized us. Is that fair? Not for us. Their enemies are their enemies. Our friends are our friends.”

It is rather sobering, isn't it?

Doesn't change anything though. Just shows we should be grateful for our friends and careful where we send our money to.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[chuckdyke]

6 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Man, I hate that bloody noise.

Hope the Russians had the same sentiments.

[Dmytro Gadomskyi]

1 year of the war is passed. From the start of the invasion and to the huge count of air and missile strikes. One of my friends has been killed by wagner artillery in Bohorodichne village near Bakhumt. My father-in-law has been killed by storming the defensive enemy positions in the Kherson region 1st of October. I gave 3 of my salaries (all what I have)on the first day of the war on the military budget. Thanks to all of you, thanks for your help. Taking carry of our refugees, helping our soldiers to destroy enemy forces with AT weapons, artillery, APS, AFV, and Tanks, peoples who served in foreign legions. Thank you for giving billions of money to support our economy. Special thanks to battlefront for small support for me, when I asked about a discount, they gave me 2 games with all DLCs for free - I didn't expect this. Some of my relatives were in Kherson in occupation, and all high-value electronic and expensive things were looted from them by Russian forces. And now we don't fear rocket strikes (10 times they exploded 700-1000m from my house) we don't fear nuclear threat, we don't fear the second army in the world and you shouldnt. Sorry for we English would that what I want to say for all of you, I can tell you many things about the war but first i will try to improve my language knowlages.

[Aragorn2002]

Slava Ukraini! We will NEVER abandon you guys.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[chuckdyke]

Pity he is not alive today. Could be a T72 Song.

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by chuckdyke

[Butschi]

26 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

It is rather sobering, isn't it?

Doesn't change anything though. Just shows we should be grateful for our friends and careful where we send our money to.

Well, it tells us that the rest of the world doesn't buy our pretty Sunday speeches, and rightly so. Our precious western values apply mostly to ourselves and definitely only extend to other regions of the world as far as they don't interfere with our interests. Which usually means we don't give a f*** about autocrats as long they are "our" autocrats and we don't care about human rights when cheap resources and workforce are better accessible without them.

That's why it means nothing to quite a few countries that we are democracies and China and Russia are not. For them it matters how they are treated and as a matter of fact, so far we have a worse track record.

What we should learn from that is that we shouldn't take it for granted that we are seen as the good guys and everyone gathers under our banner. If this is to become a clash of systems then we better make sure to win the hearts and minds of the rest of the world through deeds not words.

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

 

In October 2022, about eight months after the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the University of Cambridge in the UK harmonized surveys that asked the inhabitants of 137 countries about their views of the West, Russia, and China. The findings in the combined study are robust enough to demand our serious attention.

• Of the 6.3 billion people who live outside of the West, 66% feel positively towards Russia, and 70% feel positively towards China.

• 75% of respondents in South Asia, 68% of respondents  in Francophone Africa, and 62% of respondents in Southeast Asia report feeling positively toward Russia.

• Public opinion of Russia remains positive in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, India, Pakistan, and Vietnam.

…

Nelson Mandela often said that it was the Soviet Union’s support, both moral and material, that helped inspire South Africans to overthrow the Apartheid regime. Because of this, Russia is still viewed in a favorable light by many African countries. And once independence came for these countries, it was the Soviet Union that supported them, despite its own limited resources. Egypt’s Aswan Dam, completed in 1971, was designed by the Moscow-based Hydro Project Institute and financed in large part by the Soviet Union. The Bhilai Steel Plant, one of the first large infrastructure projects in newly independent India, was set up by the USSR in 1959.

Other countries also benefited from the political and economic support provided by the former Soviet Union, including Ghana, Mali, Sudan, Angola, Benin, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Mozambique. On February 18, 2023, at the African Union Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, the foreign minister of Uganda, Jeje Odongo, had this to say: “We were colonized and forgave those who colonized us. Now the colonizers are asking us to be enemies of Russia, who never colonized us. Is that fair? Not for us. Their enemies are their enemies. Our friends are our friends.”

To my knowledge Ukraine never colonized Africa, nor Asia, nor South America. Instead, they got "colonized" by Russia.

I judge the actions of the nations that do not oppose Russia's war on Ukraine as pure self-interest.

[rocketman]

Sweden has declared that we will send 10 or so Leopard 2 tanks as well as Iris T and Hawk AD systems.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/regeringen-presenterar-ytterligare-svenskt-stod-till-ukraina

 

[Aragorn2002]

27 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Well, it tells us that the rest of the world doesn't buy our pretty Sunday speeches, and rightly so. Our precious western values apply mostly to ourselves and definitely only extend to other regions of the world as far as they don't interfere with our interests. Which usually means we don't give a f*** about autocrats as long they are "our" autocrats and we don't care about human rights when cheap resources and workforce are better accessible without them.

That's why it means nothing to quite a few countries that we are democracies and China and Russia are not. For them it matters how they are treated and as a matter of fact, so far we have a worse track record.

What we should learn from that is that we shouldn't take it for granted that we are seen as the good guys and everyone gathers under our banner. If this is to become a clash of systems then we better make sure to win the hearts and minds of the rest of the world through deeds not words.

Ah yes, that good old Western self-hate. What would we do without it?

[Bearstronaut]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

 

In October 2022, about eight months after the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the University of Cambridge in the UK harmonized surveys that asked the inhabitants of 137 countries about their views of the West, Russia, and China. The findings in the combined study are robust enough to demand our serious attention.

• Of the 6.3 billion people who live outside of the West, 66% feel positively towards Russia, and 70% feel positively towards China.

• 75% of respondents in South Asia, 68% of respondents  in Francophone Africa, and 62% of respondents in Southeast Asia report feeling positively toward Russia.

• Public opinion of Russia remains positive in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, India, Pakistan, and Vietnam.

…

Nelson Mandela often said that it was the Soviet Union’s support, both moral and material, that helped inspire South Africans to overthrow the Apartheid regime. Because of this, Russia is still viewed in a favorable light by many African countries. And once independence came for these countries, it was the Soviet Union that supported them, despite its own limited resources. Egypt’s Aswan Dam, completed in 1971, was designed by the Moscow-based Hydro Project Institute and financed in large part by the Soviet Union. The Bhilai Steel Plant, one of the first large infrastructure projects in newly independent India, was set up by the USSR in 1959.

Other countries also benefited from the political and economic support provided by the former Soviet Union, including Ghana, Mali, Sudan, Angola, Benin, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Mozambique. On February 18, 2023, at the African Union Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, the foreign minister of Uganda, Jeje Odongo, had this to say: “We were colonized and forgave those who colonized us. Now the colonizers are asking us to be enemies of Russia, who never colonized us. Is that fair? Not for us. Their enemies are their enemies. Our friends are our friends.”

What's your point, dude? Just because countries in the global south were colonized and victimized in the past doesn't make them arbiters of morality and the common good forever. In fact, I think it's pretty disgusting that people from India, Vietnam, or South Africa can't empathize with the Ukranian people trying to fight off their historical colonial oppressor. You'd think those countries would understand it far better than those of us in the west.

[DesertFox]

18 minutes ago, rocketman said:

Sweden has declared that we will send 10 or so Leopard 2 tanks as well as Iris T and Hawk AD systems.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/regeringen-presenterar-ytterligare-svenskt-stod-till-ukraina

 

Very good!

[Seminole]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

and therefore.... what?

The western effort to ‘isolate’ Russia amounts to bifurcating the world economy as the ‘western’ share of the world economy continues to shrink in relative size.  
 

I forget the name of the agency created by the U.S. during WW2 to around the world and ‘buy up’ things that could be of value to the Axis powers.  We can’t really do a similar thing today.  
 

I was surprised to see that on GDP PPP basis the BRICS have overtaken the G7.  
 

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Butschi]

23 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

self-hate

Au contraire! During the last years China has been making offers to countries that did not just involve mining resources, flooding markets with subsidized products, giving "development aid" to autocrats and preaching. It is in our best interest to make better offers, that's it. After the end of the Cold War we somehow forgot there may be competition out there. Now, there definitely is and I'd rather not have China (or Russia) gather overly much support.

[cesmonkey]

Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine

Quote

Capabilities in this security assistance package include:

•    Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
•    Additional 155mm artillery rounds;
•    Munitions for laser-guided rocket systems;
•    CyberLux K8 UAS;
•    Switchblade 600 UAS;
•    Altius-600 UAS;
•    Jump 20 UAS;
•    Counter-UAS and electronic warfare detection equipment;
•    Mine clearing equipment;
•    Secure communications support equipment;
•    Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment.

Includes a bunch of UAS systems I hadn't heard of before.

Edited February 24, 2023 by cesmonkey

[cesmonkey]

EXCLUSIVE: Seven Former NATO Supreme Allied Commanders Say U.S. ‘Must Do Everything We Can’ for a Ukrainian Victory

Quote

The authors each have served as NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR). Gen. Wesley K. Clark, USA, ret., served from 1997 to 2000. Gen. Joseph Ralston, USAF, ret., from 2000 to 2003. Gen. James L. Jones, USMC, ret., from 2003 to 2006. Adm. James Stavridis, USN ret., from 2009 to 2013. Gen. Phil Breedlove, USAF, ret., from 2013 to 2016. Gen. Curtis M. Scaparrotti, USA, ret., from 2016 to 2019. Gen. Tod Wolters, USAF, ret., from 2019 to 2022.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Dmytro Gadomskyi said:

1 year of the war is passed. From the start of the invasion and to the huge count of air and missile strikes. One of my friends has been killed by wagner artillery in Bohorodichne village near Bakhumt. My father-in-law has been killed by storming the defensive enemy positions in the Kherson region 1st of October. I gave 3 of my salaries (all what I have)on the first day of the war on the military budget. Thanks to all of you, thanks for your help. Taking carry of our refugees, helping our soldiers to destroy enemy forces with AT weapons, artillery, APS, AFV, and Tanks, peoples who served in foreign legions. Thank you for giving billions of money to support our economy. Special thanks to battlefront for small support for me, when I asked about a discount, they gave me 2 games with all DLCs for free - I didn't expect this. Some of my relatives were in Kherson in occupation, and all high-value electronic and expensive things were looted from them by Russian forces. And now we don't fear rocket strikes (10 times they exploded 700-1000m from my house) we don't fear nuclear threat, we don't fear the second army in the world and you shouldnt. Sorry for we English would that what I want to say for all of you, I can tell you many things about the war but first i will try to improve my language knowlages.

Thank you very much for this post.  It is a privilege to hear directly from someone who is living the experience of this war.  We are very fortunate to have several Ukrainians to help us understand what is going on and why it is so important that Ukraine wins and Russia loses.

Do not worry about your English skills.  It is better to have "broken English" from people with something interesting to say than to not have it at all.

Steve

[FancyCat]

Butschi is correct. Luckily, Russia tied itself as much to Europe as Europe to Russia, so damage can be done on that front. But its not totally clear that time is on Ukraine's side. Better to smash Russia and end the conflict before the calculus for other states to start supporting Russia goes up. Abandoning Ukraine will not rescue opinions of the West worldwide. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

14 hours ago, The_Capt said:

- The UA is a hybrid mix of Soviet and Western schools, and for them I think this was a major advantage.  It was not because we peppered them with western doctrine and training, it was because they had both worlds to pull from. 

There are many Ukrainian opinions, which are critical of this mix and think that the Soviet legacy drags the ZSU down. They cite lack of flexibility, overreliance on artillery, clinging to defensive positions instead of more mobilie defence, etc.. They certainly may be wrong in this, but the UKR themselves would like to be more Western than they currently are, which includes more MC command style.  Of course UKR cannot imitate NATO in reliance on airpower and aversion to casualties, but I would not necessarily call it Soviet legacy, just the obvious adaptation to the conditions of this war. Soviet legacy shows itself in having tons of military equipment and a very capable GBAD, and I am sure UKR are thankful for that. Not so much for the intellectual legacy.

 

15 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So was born the Great American Military Myth (and frankly almost every western nation jumped onboard).  We were a democratized military built on "good ol 'merican innovation and initiative." 

I think this is not only the propaganda of US military in the 1980s, but  one has to take into account some general cultural traits, which in my opinion make Ukrainans and Mission Command a perfect match. I know this is controversial as it resembles the perennial debate about national characteristics, which usually mean Germans get a +3 to everything. However, I do not think it makes sense to close your eyes to some really apparent stuff.  Ukrainians are an incredibly bottom-up society with huge amounts of individual and small-group initiative in civilian life. Admittedly, this is based on my personal pre-war experience, but I cannot think of a better confirmation than the tractor brigades which spontaneously organised to nick Russian tanks or those myriad volunteer organisations. It stands to reason that this tendency will show in how they fight in a war. Not to mention that the figure of UKR soldier in popular imagination is a guerrilla from the forest or equally irregular Cossack. If anything, I think they would have more of a problem with sticking to the Direct Command style, where lower echelons have to follow orders they do not understand or agree with.

By the way, I have also seen critiques of US army emphasis on maneuver warfare and mission command in the late 80's as more of superficial fashion while the culture of that army is attritional, its traditions are shaped by French methodical artillery tactics and it won WW 2 by moving artillery observes ever closer to Berlin rather than Patton's occasional armoured dashes.

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

46 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Munitions for laser-guided rocket systems;

And what could that be?