dan/california Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 The Pickle is profoundly unimpressed with the Russian MOD/army. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, dan/california said: The Pickle is profoundly unimpressed with the Russian MOD/army. https://cgrozev.wordpress.com/2014/05/31/putins-pickle/ (from 2014) ....More recent journalism (early Feb) on Girkin's monarchist sponsor, Konstantin Malofeev: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/11866 This source is definitely 'suss', but bio seems on target: https://news.russia.postsen.com/trends/192617.html 'The Grey Cardinal' (...I am not the biggest Harry Potter fan, but does this yarn diagram lead through House Slitherin to Lord Voldemort?) Edited February 20, 2023 by LongLeftFlank 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Weather shows Bakhmut having high temperatures well above freezing starting next saturday, with lows around freezing. So definitely the right time to start a big offensive. All the supply trucks stuck in mud while the advance troops start running out of ammo & fuel. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Muddy ground is an equal opportunity embuggerance. UKR attacking then would be negating one of their own relative advantages. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, JonS said: Muddy ground is an equal opportunity embuggerance. UKR attacking then would be negating one of their own relative advantages. But a nice time for some action at a distance on supplies that might be exposed and immobile. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 (edited) 12 minutes ago, JonS said: Muddy ground is an equal opportunity embuggerance. UKR attacking then would be negating one of their own relative advantages. UKR has almost certainly decided to wait for dry weather in late Spring for this very reason. There may be a lot of other reasons as well, but I two cents is that they never saw a weather forecast they like enough to pull the trigger. If the Russians want to be stupid Ukraine is happy to stack them like cordwood. The same warm winter in Europe that arguably broke Ukraines momentum on the battlefield also completely bleeped Putin's plan to freeze out the entire E.U.. I would argue Ukraine is better off on the whole, but it depends on what you think Ukraine could have done in December with a really hard and dependable freeze. I do give huge points to the AFU for taking the weather as it came, instead of sticking to a plan that would not have worked. Of course the existence of that plan is an assumption on my part. I am waiting for the after war books by the principles like everyone else. Edited February 20, 2023 by dan/california 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 49 minutes ago, JonS said: Muddy ground is an equal opportunity embuggerance. UKR attacking then would be negating one of their own relative advantages. Echoing DanCA above, I wasn't thinking that UKR would do much attacking except very local. RU needs a lot more than very local success and where they do advance I want their forward elements out of contact w supplies ASAP. Anyone putting their cards on the table for predictions about what Putin's anniversary mischief will be? I am betting on a massive drone & missile strike coupled with airplanes, all intended to overwhelm UKR AD and hit some things. I suppose those things should be something actually useful to the war effort, but instead I think it will just be aimed at murdering lots of people and cutting civilian infrastructure. Lots of videos for RU state TV to trumpet about RU military power. I also think US intel probably has a very good idea about what's coming and so does UKR. Meanwhile, it looks like RU decided to fire off all its artillery and attack heavily N & S of bakhmut today, via Denys Davydov latest video. Hopefully they run short on shells & men quickly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 5 hours ago, Fenris said: Short CM level 4/5 of UKR mech-infantry attack(?) looks like M113s Looks like training exercises (plural) for combined arms mounted assault. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 In Baltics, Poland, grassroots groups strive to help Ukraine (yahoo.com) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 hour ago, JonS said: Muddy ground is an equal opportunity embuggerance. UKR attacking then would be negating one of their own relative advantages. Yup. That and Russian attacks in Bakhmut area are largely dismounted infantry. Mud will cause them problems, but not right away and not as thoroughly as armored vehicles. I don't expect to see a letup in attacks there any time soon. Artillery will have some problems displacing as they are mostly moved around by truck. That means either firing from the same locations over and over again or firing less frequently due to slower displacement. Either way, since it appears Ukraine has a significant CB advantage, Russian artillery is likely to suffer once the ground softens up. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 US government has made a definitive statement about the Hesh allegation that Nord Stream was blown up by the US: Quote National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby repeatedly denied the United States was involved in explosions that damaged the Nord Stream pipelines, speaking Sunday on “Fox News Sunday.” “It’s a completely false story. There is no truth to it, Shannon,” Kirby told host Shannon Bream, when asked about an article by journalist Seymour Hersh alleging U.S. involvement. “Not a shred of it. It is not true. The United States, and no proxies of the United States had anything to do with that, nothing.” https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/19/john-kirby-nord-stream-seymour-hersh-00083589 That's about as clear cut of a denial as it can get. Kirby went even further than saying nobody associated with the US did it on the US' behalf. As a reminder: Quote Hersh wrote on Substack earlier this month, based on a single anonymous source, that the U.S. was involved in the sabotage of the pipelines. It could be that there's some gray area between these two statements, but I can't see what that might be. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Quote https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/19/world/europe/us-china-weapons-russia-ukraine.html U.S. seems pretty convinced China is going to start shipping Russia real military aid for use in Ukraine. The U.S.-Chinese trade relations are not going to hold if that happens. We really do need to put a division of Marines on Taiwan, and end this whole ambiguity thing once and for all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Lancelot Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 (edited) 6 hours ago, kevinkin said: Was about to post a link, so just a comment: It wasn't too long ago chatter at the water cooler was China would never back a loser like Putin. China is too smart for that. These reports requires more attention. The devil is in the details. We know what the West wants out of all this. But what about China? I think China is acting up now as a counterbalance because they see the West slowly introducing modern systems. Russia might fail, but on China's terms and in no way will they allow western democratic forces to emerge in Russia. In China's mindset, negotiations are long over due. So lethal support might just be a way to encourage talks. Russian is a PIA asset for China now. And maybe they want to make Russia less of a PIA and more of an asset. There is an ancient Chinese proverb — “Cold the teeth shalt be when the lips demise.” It means that when an ally is all that stands between you and a powerful foe, its demise will bring the flames of war to your lands and spell your own doom. This proverb is known to every Chinese because it was the reason that Mao famously gave for sending troops to fight in Korea. Xi and his cadre grew up with this proverb reverberating at their ears, and I’m certain that this is the chief reason on their mind for choosing to back Putin at this dire moment. Edited February 20, 2023 by Sir Lancelot 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 31 minutes ago, dan/california said: U.S. seems pretty convinced China is going to start shipping Russia real military aid for use in Ukraine. The U.S.-Chinese trade relations are not going to hold if that happens. We really do need to put a division of Marines on Taiwan, and end this whole ambiguity thing once and for all. It wouldn't surprise me if China has already started sending military aid to Russia some time ago. They are in a new Molotov-Ribbentrop pact together, as much as China tries to hide that fact in order to prevent sanctions from the West as long as possible. We're in a new Cold War with Russia/China. That's how I see it. So gloves off and masks away. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Lancelot Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 (edited) 38 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said: It wouldn't surprise me if China has already started sending military aid to Russia some time ago. They are in a new Molotov-Ribbentrop pact together, as much as China tries to hide that fact in order to prevent sanctions from the West as long as possible. We're in a new Cold War with Russia/China. That's how I see it. So gloves off and masks away. That’ll be the surest way to convince Xi that his head is next on the chopping block if Putin’s fall. It will dramatically escalate this war to no one’s benefit. Edited February 20, 2023 by Sir Lancelot 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 5:50 PM, Aragorn2002 said: Well, because one way or the other it would be the beginning of a Cold War and sanctions from the West. They fully expected the West to swallow it, just like Crimea and Donbass. And a bunch of other countries before that. I mean if you look at it from russian POV it should've been business as usual, especially if done in 3 days as per their wet crimson fantasies. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 5:52 PM, Artkin said: Oryx lists almost 500 Ukrainian tanks and almost 1800 Russian tanks so it's possible both of these numbers are the minimum. Oryx lists photographic evidence. Which wasn't done on purpose of course, e.g. no specially trained photographers running around making shots of every loss just to do correct count. It's mostly snippets from random related footage. Losses are, of course, much higher. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, Sir Lancelot said: That’ll be the surest way to convince Xi that his head is next on the chopping block if Putin’s fall. It will dramatically escalate this war to no one’s benefit. Not necessarily. It will convince China that we don't buy their 'neutrality' and show them that they can't do it the Chinese way, which can be summarized as 'it isn't there as long as you don't talk about it'. All that talk about escalation is completly unjustified, since Russia and China already chose that direction before the first Russian tank crossed the Ukrainian border and probably even a long time before that. It's the fear of escalation that brought us in this lousy situation in the first place. Yes, acknowledge Taiwan as a sovereign state, and let's see how brave Xi really is. Edited February 20, 2023 by Aragorn2002 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sekai Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 (edited) Biden is in Kyiv! Massive show of support just before one-year anniversary, Moscow must be on edge Edited February 20, 2023 by Sekai 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said: Yes, acknowledge Taiwan as a sovereign state, and let's see how brave Xi really is. Wow, I actually agree with @Aragorn2002 for 2 posts in a row. I hope it's not a sign of the End Times lol. ...Taking it further, preserving a free and independent Chinese democratic republic and indubitably Chinese culture that is un-gutted by Communism (and no, I don't idolize Chiang's rule, but in general he let his people live and trade the way they chose -- there is quite simply no comparison with Mao) would be the richest gift (or reparation, if you are really into colonial guilt and WW2 didn't settle the tab) the West could give the Chinese people and civilisation in general. **** Realistically, it's either Russians or Chinese who will dominate Siberia; there's no realistic way of projecting a third power in there (short of reuniting Korea next week). So the West were always natural allies of Russia, on that front anyway, for as long as the Red barbarians rule in Beijing. Putin could have aligned himself with the Germans, kept his interventionist habit within limits and done quite well out of it all, keeping Siberia as a dividend paying (and lootable) heritage asset for another generation of his Great Russian People (and varyag cronies) into the bargain. But noooo, his aging society of 145 million (oops, 144 million) is destined by Bog for far greater things. Thinking is for the Gloopy Ones.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grossman Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 5 hours ago, Sir Lancelot said: There is an ancient Chinese proverb — “Cold the teeth shalt be when the lips demise.” It means that when an ally is all that stands between you and a powerful foe, its demise will bring the flames of war to your lands and spell your own doom. This proverb is known to every Chinese because it was the reason that Mao famously gave for sending troops to fight in Korea. Xi and his cadre grew up with this proverb reverberating at their ears, and I’m certain that this is the chief reason on their mind for choosing to back Putin at this dire moment. It's a sign that the Chinese themselves reckon on a potential Russian collapse. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yet Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 (edited) Time to count down till we see Sachalin in the news. Contested by RU, JP and and maybe even China too, though that was long ago. Edited February 20, 2023 by Yet 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Sekai said: Biden is in Kyiv! No malarkey here. Frankly, some people suspected that his full 2-day visit to PL looked somewhat too fishy, so his trip to Ukraine could be planned beforehand. Other option (less likely, given how difficult it is to plan this)) is that it was unscheduled as ad hoc response to latest news about trying XI puting his fingers in the door. If true, it is disturbing news. Anyway, it is very strong sign of support, probably worth more than a military package in itself. Russian Propagandists will have another metdowns. Also, evidence of public humiliation of Prigozhin: Edited February 20, 2023 by Beleg85 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 13 hours ago, Fenris said: 13 hours ago, Fenris said: Short CM level 4/5 of UKR mech-infantry attack(?) looks like M113s This is how CM BS 2 clip will/should look like I guess. Soviet tanks mixed with Western APCs, white wash terrain with blackened blast marks and shellholes and later modules with Leopards and Abraams (and Armata). Apologies for thinking about wargaming these moments but it is just too obvious thought seeing all the action from drones, the RPG ambushes etc, that all this time CM was the closest (digital) thing to the reality of warfare. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Meanwile from Belarus airfield started on Mig31 with (proabably) a Kinjal rocket, which was supposedly a reason for siren alarm: https://www.unian.net/war/kinzhalonosec-ugrozhaet-ukraine-vsya-strana-pokrasnela-20-02-2023-karta-12152193.html They love to show off... One can only imagine what was (is) in the air durng the visit...AWACS were doing crazy circles here already from yesterday. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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