How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

33 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok now I am confused.  Are we doing US or Euro bashing Day?  Or is this sarcastic old man Day?  Not that we cannot do them simultaneously.

You’re west of the pond, so you should bash Europe.  Those east of the pond should bash the US.

[Kinophile]

So east of Greenwich is +US/-EU,  West of Greenwich is -US/+EU

[Vacillator]

4 minutes ago, chrisl said:

west of the pond

or

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

West of Greenwich

I think the pond is the divider, not Greenwich?  Either way, we're all on the same side of the argument (I think).

[The_Capt]

39 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

For me it was just general frustration day.  It flows from my deep, unabiding love for all things 'tank'.  

My frontal lobe knows that for next ~6 months that arty tubes & shells & rockets, IFVs, AFVs, AD, all matter much more than tanks.  But reptile brain just wants pretty tank things whacking things, ASAP.  

Tank lust is a filthy habit.  Good thing the tank is dead.  Hah, Tank Bashing Day!  Then we can do US Tank Bashing Day and Euro Tank Bashing Day (the euro tanks have the bleach blonde tips and a false sense of superiority largely based on wide spread nudity and the metric system)

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Tank lust is a filthy habit.  Good thing the tank is dead.  Hah, Tank Bashing Day!  Then we can do US Tank Bashing Day and Euro Tank Bashing Day (the euro tanks have the bleach blonde tips and a false sense of superiority largely based on wide spread nudity and the metric system)

That's just hurtful and cruel.  And TankGod is listening to your blasphemies, so laugh while you can because one day you'll pay when you arrive at the pearly gates to see St Peter pop out of the turret of a sherman (he's very old school).

[Gpig]

when The_Capt arrives, I think St. Peter would stay buttoned up.

[Beleg85]

BPM-97, rare armoured car captured by AFU in Bakhmut. Reportedly these things belongs chiefly to Wagner group or Russian border guards. Typical dirt inside.

Article from FT about Russian and Ukrianian preparations for "spring offensive".

https://www.ft.com/content/164360c3-1b37-46c9-b26a-4444d2045eef

 

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Gpig said:

when The_Capt arrives, I think St. Peter would stay buttoned up.

Professional humor, well played Gpig.  

[The_Capt]

16 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

RUS artillery losses are steadily increasing and ramping up. In the past RUS artillery losses have correlated with ongoing UKR offensives and captured terrain. That is not the case this time. Do we see increasing efficiency of counter-battery operations now in effect?

 

We have been having a lot of laughs here today but I did not want to let this one slip by.  Been watching these summaries go by for about a week now and is it just me or are the Russians losing an increasing number of back-end equipment overall?  Guns, C2, trucks (especially fuel trucks) and even some engineering equipment.  That is 7 guns yesterday alone.  People keep focusing on the front end but the enablers in the RA are taking a beating by the looks of it.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

Bakhmut direction, first-person combat routine of the 3rd assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, part 1 "Repulse of the assault" (full video for 14+ minutes here https://youtube.com/watch?v=JHHVuxGoAbc)

Thank you for posting.  If you see Part 2 become available, please post here.

I am curious about the Claymore mine around the 4:40 mark.  What was the discussion about it?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

We have been having a lot of laughs here today but I did not want to let this one slip by.  Been watching these summaries go by for about a week now and is it just me or are the Russians losing an increasing number of back-end equipment overall?  Guns, C2, trucks (especially fuel trucks) and even some engineering equipment.  That is 7 guns yesterday alone.  People keep focusing on the front end but the enablers in the RA are taking a beating by the looks of it.

It is at least logical that this is happening.  This is a very narrow sector of front with very few places (relatively speaking) for artillery to be sited.  That increases the chances of Ukraine finding a gun to target when it goes out looking for them.  And one thing we have come to learn about Ukraine since the early days of the war, Ukraine is incredibly capable with counter battery fire.

We also know for sure Russia requires lots of guns to make any progress, so having quite a few pulled into this battle is inevitable.  It is also inevitable that as guns are knocked out that they are getting replaced, which then gives Ukrainians more opportunity to knock out more guns.  This process repeats over days, weeks, and even months leading to a lot of lost guns.

Put all this together and it's kinda like Russia needs fish to win, they have to put them in a barrel, Ukraine keeps shooting into the barrel killing the fish, so Russia restocks the barrel without addressing the problem of Ukraine shooting them.  And since Ukraine for some reason has some hair across it's arse about fish swimming in a barrel, it keeps shooting

Steve

[chuckdyke]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukraine is incredibly capable with counter battery fire.

Are we going to see this reflected in future games? artillery has a very charming life. In house rules we could permit short missions to consider repositioning. Happy gaming to everyone, I follow everything game related. Belated apologies for my previous posts. 

[sburke]

53 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

So east of Greenwich is +US/-EU,  West of Greenwich is -US/+EU

that is why it is called Greenwich be mean time.

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, JonS said:

"When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do?"

"Why, I dig in and read nonsense from questionable sources, of course!"

"Bill Gates (...), don't you know?"

Anyway they really made a mess of that here as in scientifically debating the facts but still go for the masks policy. I can't remember it exactly but even after the decision to go for the masks 'our Fauci' persisted the decision was motivated politically rather than on medical facts. Found it (translates fine should you care to read it):

https://nos.nl/artikel/2350709-van-dissel-blijft-erbij-gewone-mondkapjes-hebben-weinig-effect

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, chuckdyke said:

Are we going to see this reflected in future games?

Set ahead of the Black Sea timeframe?  Absolutely.  I have a very long list of things to consider as a result of this war and many conversations going on in the background about them.  There is so much to learn amidst the tragedy of this war.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

I can't remember it exactly but even after the decision to go for the masks '

I had to wear masks when I was still working. The rules change every four hours otherwise they do more harm than good. If you feel sick stay home, the simple reason needs to cough if your body tells you. Otherwise, the germs or viruses will recycle straight in your lungs and could cause infection.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

"Bill Gates (...), don't you know?"

Anyway they really made a mess of that here as in scientifically debating the facts but still go for the masks policy. I can't remember it exactly but even after the decision to go for the masks 'our Fauci' persisted the decision was motivated politically rather than on medical facts. Found it (translates fine should you care to read it):

https://nos.nl/artikel/2350709-van-dissel-blijft-erbij-gewone-mondkapjes-hebben-weinig-effect

 

  

Just now, chuckdyke said:

I had to wear masks when I was still working. The rules change every four hours otherwise they do more harm than good. If you feel sick stay home, the simple reason needs to cough if your body tells you. Otherwise, the germs or viruses will recycle straight in your lungs and could cause infection.

 

OK... I know we've been veering off topic for the last day, but I have to say this is like swerving off the road, through a guardrail, over an embankment, and into a fast flowing river of sewage.  Let's not do that

Steve

[DesertFox]

Some tank figures according to IISS.org. That info doesn´t look so good for the orcs if combined with the daily human losses and their arty and logistic losses. Might as well be their last chance to do one last effort for offensive action, but we need to be cautious and wait how 2023 evolves.

 

 

[kevinkin]

Question: How are UA logistics organized in way that they are less vulnerable to RA aerial attacks? Is their supply chain just less rigid and more adaptable than Russia's? More dispersed. Better trained? I have seen articles on the young workers innovating with UAVs. But can't remember any report on how the UA supplies its troops vs Russia.  This is a similar question to the one on how Ukraine's medical system is dealing with the wounded. Supplies go in; the wounded go out. Ukraine is doing a better job in these areas and as Steve mentions above:  "There is so much to learn amidst the tragedy of this war."

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK... I know we've been veering off topic for the last day, but I have to say this is like swerving off the road, through a guardrail, over an embankment, and into a fast flowing river of sewage.  Let's not do that

Thank you, this was definitely headed off a cliff.

But really chiming to wonder about point made by TheCapt & you above.  For a long time we were hearing about RU tubes wearing out and the declining arty superiority that RU could expect plus burn rate of shells well above replacement rate.  We've seen that over time -- the RU artillery strikes last June were much greater than anything we see now, and over greater frontage. 

So  let's assume a couple things for argument: RU is in a shrinking arty situation (both guns & shells); arty is the only thing that keeps RU troops in the fight against UKR, whether on offense or defense.  This makes current RU offensive even more desperate than it already seems as they are burning up the things they actually can't replace and most need.  They can make more mobiks overnight (literally).  And if the rumored massive air strike happens in a week or so, then they'll probably lose a bunch of their air force which also can't be replaced.  Which all makes me wonder if Putin really is throwing all the dice?  Hello, Germany 1918?  Hello Germany Wacht am Rhein (the attacks right now) & Nordwind (the rumored attacks toward Kupyansk)?  

[Beleg85]

Daily summary- highly recommended.

https://threadreaderapp-com.translate.goog/thread/1625996617160486916.html?_x_tr_sl=pl&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp

It seems muscovites are trying to form several concentrations of troops to do the breakthroughs. This one near Gorlovka seems interesting, given they are hitting with their heads in Donetsk area for already 12 months. They may probably try attack in Konstantinovka direction from there?

There are also reports they group aircrafts in areas sorrounding Ukraine.

Edited February 15, 2023 by Beleg85

[G.I. Joe]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

And if the rumored massive air strike happens in a week or so, then they'll probably lose a bunch of their air force which also can't be replaced.

To continue your late-World War II German analogies, that could be their Bodenplatte...

[JonS]

17 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Question: How are UA logistics organized in way that they are less vulnerable to RA aerial attacks?

At a guess I would say it's because of:

* less own-side corruption, which means less wate and therefore less duplication required

* greater own side professionalism (which results in less exposure and therefore risk required to achieve objectives)

* lower overall log requirements (therefore fewer targets) because less artillery

And the really really big one

* not having the entire Western ISR infrastructure watching you night and day

Edited February 15, 2023 by JonS

[kevinkin]

11 minutes ago, JonS said:

* not having the entire Western ISR infrastructure watching you night and day

Good point. But established road and rail hubs don't need ISR to target. They don't move. If the UA is avoiding them opting for a less known routes, then that's an adaptation that Russia can't replicate to the same degree since any ill established supply lines are easy for the the west to uncover. Russia's ISR is not blanketing or agile at all. Plus their forces require more just to subsist which might mean secondary supply routes don't have sufficient through put and Russia is tied to well know avenues of logistics. Enter the almost real time delivery of HIMARS.  

[JonS]

5 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

But established road and rail hubs don't need ISR to target. They don't move.

True, but there's little point lobbing 'splodey love at a crossroads blind and /hoping/ there happens to be a truck there at the time. You might get lucky once, or twice, but then the xroads will just stop being used.