How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Description of a typical attack by forces of a DPR company reinforced with tanks from Mashovets.

 

I will tell you the story of one battle...

Place of events - the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk, the area south of Avdiivka, the village of Oprosne.

Time - a couple of days ago (to be more precise - February 9).

10.05 - the assault group of the DPR from the 1st motorized rifle battalion of the 1st "Slavyanskaya" motorized rifle brigade from their positions in the village of Oprosna in the amount of a motorized rifle platoon, divided into "small infantry groups" of 8-10 people, begins advancing on foot in a northern direction through forest plantation with the clear goal of reaching the border of the village of Severnoye - the western outskirts of Avdiivka and gaining a foothold there. At the same time, a tank platoon (3 tanks of the T-72 type) from the tank battalion of the 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade is secretly (as it seems to them) advanced to the firing positions on the outskirts of Oprosnoye, and an armored group (up to a motorized rifle platoon) from that the same 1st MRBn of the 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade for 1 BMP-2 and 2 MT-LB ...

 

10.15 - The whole group begins to move in the general direction "to the north", having in front of them "small infantry groups", which on foot try to "infiltrate" as far as possible to the north, it must be understood as a "vanguard detachment". All this takes place under the cover of liquid and not very accurate enemy mortar and artillery fire. From the right flank, this movement is also covered by the intense fire of the ZU-23-2 from the side of the truck, hidden in the sparse bushes and woodlands.

10.35 - 10.40 - A unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine clearly establishes the direction of movement and combat order of the attacking motorized rifle company (MRC) of the enemy, reinforced by a tank platoon, and opens heavy fire on the enemy during his movement, including using anti-tank weapons ... Ukrainian mortars add fun , which, with the transfer of fire, sequentially, "along the lines", are trying to inflict a fire defeat on the attacking enemy unit ... The enemy slows down its movement, but still tries to continue it further, even under the fire of the defending Ukrainian unit.

Not later than 11.26 ... one of the enemy T-72s moving on the left flank of the attacking enemy motorized rifle company, hoping to bypass the main positions of the Ukrainian unit from the flank - gets stuck in a pit previously unnoticed by its crew, and then stalls there.

11.43 ... One of the ATGMs of the Ukrainian unit hits another T-72 not far from the one that got stuck, and makes it stop too ... After about 2 minutes, it becomes clear that some kind of "fire" has occurred in the engine compartment of the tank. The crew leaves the combat vehicle and informs their "bosses" that "the tank has been hit", and they are forced to return to their "starting positions". The third tank, at the same time, takes cover in the "folds of the terrain" and even from time to time fires at Ukrainian positions...

At the same time, the enemy motorized rifle platoon, operating "on the armor", tried to partially dismount and join the second motorized rifle platoon, which was walking in front of it on landing (as a "forward detachment"), was timely detected and, due to the fire of the Ukrainian unit, was forced to lie down there ...

Within 20-30 minutes, a very intense radio exchange takes place between all the actors from the enemy’s side, with a very frequent use of a variety of idiomatic and phraseological statements ... Moreover, after another 15 minutes of intense firefight between the “forward detachment”, the surviving tank , part of the "reserve armored group" of the enemy and the Ukrainian unit defending in this area, its key event takes place - the Ukrainians manage to hit 3 enemy combat vehicles at once - the tank that survived by this moment, 1 BMP-2 and 1 MT-LB.

All affected AFVs become "immobile", and in the damaged MT-LB, the main part of the ammunition load is also detonated, which, one must understand, she was carrying for the entire attacking MRC ...

Wow, that is an amazingly detailed description of this fight.  thx for sharing.  I suppose not all UKR sectors are so well coordinated for defense, but hopefully most of them are this good.

[Zeleban]

The climax is coming, fanfares are sounding ...

The commander of all this break-dance (he, it must be understood, is the commander of this motorized rifle company of the 1st battalion of the 1st motorized brigade) makes a "strong-willed decision" about the departure of the subordinate unit to the starting line in Oprosnoye, arguing this decision with the fact that " almost completely left without armor."

It should be noted that during the battle, the Ukrainian unit quite actively used tactical-level UAVs, electronic intelligence and various means of destruction, and in some moments of the battle even the firepower of the senior commander appeared.

Thus, a short attempt by the enemy to advance in the direction north of the village of Oprosnoye failed (in general terms, it was no more than 100-120 meters, from which he was forced to retreat anyway) ...

At the same time, the enemy probably lost up to 4-5 people killed and at least 7 wounded, and also lost 3 tanks and 2 armored combat vehicles ...

Subsequently, a unit of the 3rd motorized rifle battalion of the 1st motorized brigade, which was supposed to change the units of the 1st battalion in these positions, arbitrarily, without an order, withdrew. And therefore, by the evening of that day, in the infamous grove north of Poprosnoye, there were only up to 10-11 enemy servicemen from the 1st Battalion of the 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade with a minimum of ammunition and no heavy weapons.

During the evening hours, the enemy also tried to evacuate his wounded and the bodies of the dead from the landing, but could not do this because of the dense mortar fire that the Ukrainian Armed Forces unit fired ... in order to disrupt the movement of enemy reserve infantry groups to forward positions.

As a result of this "battle", on the same evening, in the radio network of the 1st battalion of the 1st brigade, a very lively exchange of opinions and value judgments took place between different representatives of the command level of the unit, and again - with the frequent use of various specific idioms and phrases

[Kinophile]

I suspect that the tank saga will go the way if Gepards,  AAs,  Caesars etc. Remember when they got,  what 4 Gepard and that was A Big Deal? 

Once the seal is broken (done) and tanks start arriving (not yet but soon)  the arms supply conveyor belt will shift into gear. This means contracts, future revenues, yearly margins will all be affected, ie increased.  That will add lubrication to the provision process (steadily more tanks arriving)  and conversely friction to cancelling the effort. 

For me, I don't care so deeply about tanks per se. It's more that they're almost yhe final hurdle -  almost everything else is relatively lightweight (relatively) but tanks are the heaviest and most serious ground component.  Once that link is made and the Tanks Flow a lot of linked economics become hard change. 

That will then help make other things,  like F16 or whatever more possible and likely. 

 

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I suspect that the tank saga will go the way if Gepards,  AAs,  Caesars etc. Remember when they got,  what 4 Gepard and that was A Big Deal? 

Once the seal is broken (done) and tanks start arriving (not yet but soon)  the arms supply conveyor belt will shift into gear. This means contracts, future revenues, yearly margins will all be affected, ie increased.  That will add lubrication to the provision process (steadily more tanks arriving)  and conversely friction to cancelling the effort. 

For me, I don't care so deeply about tanks per se. It's more that they're almost yhe final hurdle -  almost everything else is relatively lightweight (relatively) but tanks are the heaviest and most serious ground component.  Once that link is made and the Tanks Flow a lot of linked economics become hard change. 

That will then help make other things,  like F16 or whatever more possible and likely. 

 

In the short term I just want the IFVs & AFVs so the grunts in the trenches have some mobile firepower reserve they can call on when things get rough.  Yes, these will also be needed to build proper combined arms units for offensive action but right now UKR needs everything it can get to mow down the RU infantry.  Hopefully some of these vehicles also have ATGM attached.  I am not, of course, diminishing the need for lots of mortars & arty which are the main weapons. 

[The_Capt]

42 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

10.35 - 10.40 - A unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine clearly establishes the direction of movement and combat order of the attacking motorized rifle company (MRC) of the enemy, reinforced by a tank platoon, and opens heavy fire on the enemy during his movement, including using anti-tank weapons ... Ukrainian mortars add fun , which, with the transfer of fire, sequentially, "along the lines", are trying to inflict a fire defeat on the attacking enemy unit ... The enemy slows down its movement, but still tries to continue it further, even under the fire of the defending Ukrainian unit.

The Russians lost this fight in the first half hour, maybe less.  It wouldn't matter what vehicles or tanks the RA had at this point.  They were spotted and had beads all over them.  Local UA forces have time to shift and react...the rest is pretty much adjectives.

Now this is clearly a probing action, but an assault in many way would be worse as it is more vehicles and many of them specialized.  Which would bring down bigger and madder fires from the UA.

The the RA tries to manoeuvre, get watched while trying to do it...and gets killed.  Repeat this all along the line for days and we start to see a pattern.

[Battlefront.com]

59 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

I don't think that's the correct read on the situation.  Prepositioning these vehicles to save a few days or even weeks on delivery time doesn't make much sense since training will take months.  It is more likely these vehicles are part of normal rotations and/or a planned increase in US forces to be in position in the event NATO gets into a shooting war.  In that case a few days matters.

Steve

[JonS]

8 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

(O): It doesn’t matter, we will master any weapon and use it to destroy the enemy.

So, something that was drummed into me (occasionally literally) as a young soldier is that "the weapon of the artillery is the round." Fun saying. Pithy, like. But the point is that the gun - any gun - is just the delivery system. All the effects - neutralisation, destruction, harassment, obscuration, illumination, etc - are created by the rounds. From that it follows that delivery and placement of the rounds is the thing that matters, a bit like casting a fly when fishing.

What all this means is that new artillery is /relatively/ easy to integrate into an existing system and doctrine, since the FOs already know how to cast their flies to get the effects they need. There are still very definite logistic, comms, training, and maintenance challenges, of course, but applying the bangs in a useful way at the battlefront is relatively straightforward - the FO doesn't care^ whether the firing unit is a Caesar, a PzH2000, an M777, an M118, or a Pion, they just need to know they're getting 155mm PD, or 105mm prox, or 152mm delay, or 122mm smoke, or whatever.

All this to agree with that what the good Colonel is saying - more guns good.

Ukraine spokespeople do have a tendency to say "just give us the things. ALL the things" though, glossing over the real integration challenges.

 

^ they actually do care, because the guns all have slightly different characteristics which affect the way the rounds present at the terminal end, but in the grand scheme of things those are comparatively minor.

 

Edited February 14, 2023 by JonS

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/russia-ukraine-war-potemkin-occupation-murder-torture/672841/

 

Quote

The modern Russian occupation also belongs to the equally old, equally ugly traditions of Russian imperialism and Soviet genocide. Moscow wants to obliterate Ukraine as a separate country, and Ukrainian as a distinct identity. The occupiers thought that task would be easy, because, like Putin, they assumed that the Ukrainian state and Ukrainian society are weak. But they are not. That clash between assumption and reality has also forced the occupiers to broaden their use of violence. 

A long article, and nearly too awful to read. The Russian army, and the Russian STATE are a blight upon the world. They should be treated as such.

 

[DesertFox]

TOS-1A going BOOM. Enjoy the fireworks.

 

 

[Kinophile]

@JonS "naturalization"...? 

[JonS]

Derp. Sbellczech on phone .  Should be "neutralisation"

Edit: fixed

Edited February 14, 2023 by JonS

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

"Boris Pistorius said progress made by other countries in sending German-made Leopard tanks had “not been exactly breathtaking, to put it mildly”.

Berlin also announced last month that it would let allies re-export German-made tanks to Ukraine, and said it wanted to team up with its allies to create two tank battalions of Leopard 2s, equating to about 90 tanks.

But so far, apart from Germany only Poland has given the green light for substantial deliveries. Late last month, Canada announced it would send four Leopard 2 tanks and Norway said on Tuesday it was also providing eight.

Pistorius said Portugal had agreed to send three Leopard 2A6s — a commitment he described as an “appropriate contribution” for a relatively small country. But there were currently “no talks underway” on sending more A6s, he added.

He also said Poland would supply Leopard 2A4s but expressed doubt about their “condition and whether they are operational”. He said Canada had already delivered tanks to Poland together with their instructors and Warsaw was waiting for the tanks from Norway.

He added that Poland was also in “advanced talks” with Spain. Nato officials told the Financial Times that Berlin was waiting for a coalition of Leopard 2 donors to be formed before sending its own contingent, adding that the plan was to send the two battalions in one delivery."

EDIT: But I think Germany is bitching. They send about 3% of their fleet. If everyone does that we get nowhere. Portugal 10% and Norway 25-40% is the way to go. Poland is also 4% but they have already sent hundreds of T-72s and more are on the way so Poland doesn't count here.

I'd say he is 'on the money'. People were bitching Germany before and even demonstrations held about free the leopard, but so far the only thing countries are doing is cleaning out some olde stuff from the basement. And not even in numbers.

Who else is sending part of their actually modern (2A6/2A5/2PL/2A6E, etc), operational, fleet? Anyone? Ok, Portugal supposedly. 
Regarding 3%, does Germany have 467 operational Leo2A6 (14/0,03)? 

PS My country is also in the guilty corner imo. 

[akd]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't think that's the correct read on the situation.  Prepositioning these vehicles to save a few days or even weeks on delivery time doesn't make much sense since training will take months.  It is more likely these vehicles are part of normal rotations and/or a planned increase in US forces to be in position in the event NATO gets into a shooting war.  In that case a few days matters.

Steve

The M2A2 ODS-SAs are for Ukraine, and I'd be surprised if those older MRAPs are for an active-duty Army rotation.  Not sure about the Strykers.

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Unfortunately, a return to the chaos of the 1990s is likely going to produce a new and expedient social contract with someone similar to Putin.  In part because liberal elites are needed to counterbalance the autocratic aligned elites.  With the liberal elites largely outside of Russia and not likely to return, Russia's longstanding tendency towards brute force exploitation will likely continue in a different form.  Hopefully one that isn't as imperialistic as the current regime, but history doesn't favor being optimistic it will.

Steve

Putin 'rose' to power after the disastrous 1st Chechen war, cementing his position with the 'successful' 2nd Chechen war. Ironically he is setting up a likewise 'opportunity' for someone else to replace him in similar fashion.

As a 'progressive' optimist in theory (although probably somewhat pragmatic realist in practice/when necessary) I'm not too optimistic about a 'color revolution' happening in Russia anytime soon for the reasons you have, imo, nicely described.

[DesertFox]

21 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Regarding 3%, does Germany have 467 operational Leo2A6 (14/0,03)? 

Nope!

Laut der Liste verfügt die Bundeswehr insgesamt über 312 verschiedene Leopard-2-Panzer verschiedener Baureihen. Davon seien im Mai vergangenen Jahres allerdings 99 für Instandsetzungs- und Reparaturarbeiten bei der Rüstungsindustrie gewesen, einer bereits in der Aussonderung.

In der Liste seien daher unter der Überschrift "Bestand Truppe" 212 Leopard-2-Modelle aufgeführt. Unter diesen seien sowohl die verschiedenen Modelle 2A5, 2A6, 2A7 und 2A7V - die modernste Ausführung des Waffensystems, von der am Stichtag 22. Mai 53 Exemplare zur Verfügung standen.

According to the list, the Bundeswehr has a total of 312 different Leopard 2 tanks of different series. In May last year, however, 99 of them were for maintenance and repair work in the armaments industry, and one was already being sorted out.

The list therefore contains 212 Leopard 2 models under the heading "Stock Troops". Among these are the various models 2A5, 2A6, 2A7 and 2A7V - the most modern version of the weapon system, of which 53 copies were available on May 22nd.

Panzerdebatte: Bestand an "Leoparden" offenbar längst bekannt | BR24

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

I suspect that the tank saga will go the way if Gepards,  AAs,  Caesars etc. Remember when they got,  what 4 Gepard and that was A Big Deal? 

Once the seal is broken (done) and tanks start arriving (not yet but soon)  the arms supply conveyor belt will shift into gear. This means contracts, future revenues, yearly margins will all be affected, ie increased.  That will add lubrication to the provision process (steadily more tanks arriving)  and conversely friction to cancelling the effort. 

For me, I don't care so deeply about tanks per se. It's more that they're almost yhe final hurdle -  almost everything else is relatively lightweight (relatively) but tanks are the heaviest and most serious ground component.  Once that link is made and the Tanks Flow a lot of linked economics become hard change. 

That will then help make other things,  like F16 or whatever more possible and likely. 

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1. Unit deployments, Vuhledar (OSINT) 

2. Note the rail bridge is still out. 

3. Brain drain

4. ProRU Twitter having a sad 

 

 

 

Edited February 14, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Rokko]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

The Russians lost this fight in the first half hour, maybe less.  It wouldn't matter what vehicles or tanks the RA had at this point.  They were spotted and had beads all over them.  Local UA forces have time to shift and react...the rest is pretty much adjectives.

Now this is clearly a probing action, but an assault in many way would be worse as it is more vehicles and many of them specialized.  Which would bring down bigger and madder fires from the UA.

The the RA tries to manoeuvre, get watched while trying to do it...and gets killed.  Repeat this all along the line for days and we start to see a pattern.

There seems to be not much that can be realistically done to counter this, no? From here on out, preventing the enemy from having small observation drones in the air is going to be impossible. So any assault is going to be spotted beforehand, more often than not. Suppressing enemy mortar positions seems more plausible, but for that you need your own observation drones and precision artillery (so at least impossible for RU in this war, for now). That may not help against this relatively new form of ultra-mobile long range artillery, though. But the mortars seem the greatest danger, simply due to their much greater availability and local response times.

It looks like Russians actually did find a counter: Keep sending more waves until the enemy is through their mortar ammo. Although this clearly does not scale/is not sustainable.

BTW, I don't really get why UKR keeps asking for fighter jets, it seems several trainloads of mortars plus ammo would benefit them much more and would be infinitely easier to achieve.

[The_Capt]

So here we are coming up a year into this thing and I think it is fair to say that the impact of this war on a global scale has been significant and very likely permanent.  The fact that it came on the heels of a the worst global pandemic since 1918, and that on the heels of the end of the Cold War and 9/11 all speak to one helluva crazy ride...and I suspect we are just getting started. 

So I am seeing the same question, of variations thereof, being asked all over the internet as we come up on the 1st anniversary of this war:  When will this war end?

This is a reasonable and perfectly predictable question.  However, it is really not asking when this war will actually end, it is really asking "when will we go back to normal? The way things were?"

Well the short answer is that this war will likely not end, it will turn into the next one. 

For this war to end, Ukraine and Russia would have to accept a lasting peace between their two nation states - and I am pretty sure that ship has sailed for a few generations at least.  Watching the Ukrainian and Russian political levels, something has dawned on me - they have already figured this out and are waiting patiently for the rest of the world to catch up.

It would be a serious mistake to think that once the killing abates that we can all go back to whatever we were doing before this thing broke out.  Too many fundamentals have been impacted.  The power balance in Europe, the role of Russia and its orientation, some deeper elements of warfare itself.  We are off the cliff here and in freefall, so no point arguing about the upholstery.

We can debate when the RA will fold, or freeze or whatever.  But the reality is that after this conflict a second one between the West and Russia is waiting in the wings.  Or if Russia completely implodes, another major (and very dangerous) conflict there.  And all the while we have the escalating competition between the US and China.  My sense we are at the beginning of a global scale collision, but it will not likely be WW3 (at least not yet), nor will it be a rehash of the Cold War - although it will share elements of it.  No this will more likely be something else entirely, but in so many ways the same.  A Tepid War, a Hot Peace, an Impressionist War with Baroque outbreaks.  This might just be the first war for full control of the human race and building the edifice for what comes next.

Regardless, the violence and dying in Ukraine will end or taper off, and that is not small.  But all war is an irreconcilable collision of human certainty that contains an element of violence, and we are headed for a big one on many levels.  We have horizontal collisions between the people and the state, between people themselves and between states.  The war in Ukraine is a very real and brutal manifestation of things that have been simmering under the surface for years.

So this war will not end, it will morph and evolve.  Everyone needs to get used to that idea because I suspect our grandkids will be still fighting it.  Everyone needs to start thinking about sacrifice - something we are not very good at doing in the west.  I mean we understand it on some level, and some have had to sacrifice everything in the last 30 years.  However, on a broad scale I think we will need to be ready to make a lot more sacrifices in order to keep a voice in what happens next, and Ukraine is just the opening shot.   

Edited February 14, 2023 by The_Capt

[sburke]

thanks for that uplifting positive message on Valentine's day.  Did you buy your wife dead flowers?

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

 

For this war to end, Ukraine and Russia would have to accept a lasting peace between their two nation states - and I am pretty sure that ship has sailed for a few generations at least.  Watching the Ukrainian and Russian political levels, something has dawned on me - they have already figured this out and are waiting patiently for the rest of the world to catch up.

 

Yep, also my prognosis. I guess we will see some kind of new "Iron Curtain" like we had in Europe until 1989 for the next few decades seperating the eastern EU/NATO border from Mordor (Russia and Bielorussia)

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Rokko said:

There seems to be not much that can be realistically done to counter this, no? From here on out, preventing the enemy from having small observation drones in the air is going to be impossible. So any assault is going to be spotted beforehand, more often than not. Suppressing enemy mortar positions seems more plausible, but for that you need your own observation drones and precision artillery (so at least impossible for RU in this war, for now). That may not help against this relatively new form of ultra-mobile long range artillery, though. But the mortars seem the greatest danger, simply due to their much greater availability and local response times.

It looks like Russians actually did find a counter: Keep sending more waves until the enemy is through their mortar ammo. Although this clearly does not scale/is not sustainable.

BTW, I don't really get why UKR keeps asking for fighter jets, it seems several trainloads of mortars plus ammo would benefit them much more and would be infinitely easier to achieve.

How to win based on what we have seen:

- Finding beats flanking.  Achieve C4ISR superiority - max yours out, connect it all and empower your people to lowest level.  Deny same to enemy.

- Erode opponents operational enablers - make them blinder, dumber and poorly supplied.  Prioritize C4ISR, logistics and guns.

- Start with firepower, not manoeuvre.  Hit them the entire length of their operational system - focus on infiltration for positioning, maximize the link between ISR, dispersed light infantry and precision fires. Isolate where you can and erode piecemeal in the front. 

- Induce internal stress.  By combining all three, along with clever operational emphasis you can get your opponent to be forced to shift and strain - double down on that until he starts to show cracks. 

- Only once you have done the above and have met your operational indicators do you try conventional manoeuvre.

- Rinse and repeat until they collapse under a combination of your pressure and their own weight.  Keep doing it until they run out of people, will or both, or you run out of ammo.

If you can get airpower to work in any of that, well you have cracked the code.

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

thanks for that uplifting positive message on Valentine's day.  Did you buy your wife dead flowers?

She is a full Colonel and already knows the score.  

[Beleg85]

Some of the debates and viewpoints mirroring those on this board:

 

[Battlefront.com]

49 minutes ago, akd said:

The M2A2 ODS-SAs are for Ukraine, and I'd be surprised if those older MRAPs are for an active-duty Army rotation.  Not sure about the Strykers.

The implication from the Tweet was that the US was proactively getting stuff ready for future deliveries that haven't yet been announced.  The Bradleys... I quick count looks to be 50, wasn't that the number already announced?  MRAPs were also announced, though don't remember a number.  Sustainment vehicles were also announced explicitly, IIRC, but generally they go along as the unsung heroes.

Now, if the Strykers are not intended for US Army purposes, then the author would be correct as those have only been "discussed".  I see some Avengers in there.  I don't remember if any of those have been promised yet.

Anyway, my point stands that due to training times shipping things ahead isn't a game changer.  Smart, of course, but not anything other than good logistics planning.  Having them there doesn't mean they are days away from getting into Ukrainian units.

Steve