How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vanir Ausf B]

On 2/12/2023 at 12:06 PM, The_MonkeyKing said:

I wonder what it would take for UKR to say they have enough ammo.

But it does appear to be a real concern.

__________

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned Monday that Ukraine is using up ammunition far faster than its allies can provide it and putting pressure on Western defense industries, just as Russia ramps up its military offensive.

“The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions and depleting allied stockpiles,” Stoltenberg said. “The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defense industries under strain.”

According to some estimates, Ukraine is firing up to 6,000-7,000 artillery shells each day, around a third of the daily amount that Russia is using almost one year into the war.

Speaking on the eve of a two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers, Stoltenberg said the waiting time for the supply of “large-caliber ammunition has increased from 12 to 28 months,” and that “orders placed today would only be delivered two-and-a-half years later.”

__________

https://www.yahoo.com/news/nato-chief-says-ukraines-ammunition-160804274.html

 

[Bulletpoint]

The US has told Ukraine it will not send long-range missiles because it has too few to spare, according to a report.

US officials have said transferring Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to the battlefield in Ukraine would risk a shortage of its own stockpiles and damage its own readiness for any fight in the future, sources have told Politico.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/13/u-s-wont-send-long-range-missiles-ukraine-00082652

[Vanir Ausf B]

There is street fighting in some areas, but Ukrainian forces still hold the city - despite sub-zero temperatures and dwindling ammunition.

"We have some shortages of ammunition of all kinds, especially artillery rounds," says Capt Mykhailo from the 93rd Mechanised Brigade, whose call sign is 'Polyglot'. "We also need encrypted communication devices from our Western allies, and some armoured personnel carriers to move troops around. But we still manage. One of the main lessons of this war is how to fight with limited resources."

We get an insight into the ammunition problems as Ukrainian troops target a Russian position with 60mm mortars. The first mortar round flies from the tube with a loud bang. The second round doesn't eject.

There's a hiss of smoke and a shout of "misfire" sending the mortar unit scrambling for cover. Troops tell us the ammunition is old stock, sent from abroad.

Moscow now has effective control of both main roads into the city, leaving just one back route left - a slender supply line.

"They have been trying to take the city since July," says Iryna, press officer of the 93rd Brigade. "Little by little they are winning now. They have more resources, so if they play the long game they will win. I can't say how long it will take.

"Maybe they will run out of resources. I really hope so."

___________

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64596363

[Beleg85]

6 new Cesars to UA, while ramping up production to circa 6 per month.

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

I wonder of that unnamed Czech general is now going to be Czech president in few weeks.

Very possible, both gentlemen were from paratrooper/SOF branch and gen. Pavel served as NATO chief of military comitee.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

"Boris Pistorius said progress made by other countries in sending German-made Leopard tanks had “not been exactly breathtaking, to put it mildly”.

Berlin also announced last month that it would let allies re-export German-made tanks to Ukraine, and said it wanted to team up with its allies to create two tank battalions of Leopard 2s, equating to about 90 tanks.

But so far, apart from Germany only Poland has given the green light for substantial deliveries. Late last month, Canada announced it would send four Leopard 2 tanks and Norway said on Tuesday it was also providing eight.

Pistorius said Portugal had agreed to send three Leopard 2A6s — a commitment he described as an “appropriate contribution” for a relatively small country. But there were currently “no talks underway” on sending more A6s, he added.

He also said Poland would supply Leopard 2A4s but expressed doubt about their “condition and whether they are operational”. He said Canada had already delivered tanks to Poland together with their instructors and Warsaw was waiting for the tanks from Norway.

He added that Poland was also in “advanced talks” with Spain. Nato officials told the Financial Times that Berlin was waiting for a coalition of Leopard 2 donors to be formed before sending its own contingent, adding that the plan was to send the two battalions in one delivery."

EDIT: But I think Germany is bitching. They send about 3% of their fleet. If everyone does that we get nowhere. Portugal 10% and Norway 25-40% is the way to go. Poland is also 4% but they have already sent hundreds of T-72s and more are on the way so Poland doesn't count here.

Edited February 14, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[Vanir Ausf B]

24 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

EDIT: But I think Germany is bitching. They send about 3% of their fleet.

Depends on how you count. As of 2021 Germany only had 107 operational Leopard 2s.

[Beleg85]

33 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

"Boris Pistorius said progress made by other countries in sending German-made Leopard tanks had “not been exactly breathtaking, to put it mildly”.

Berlin also announced last month that it would let allies re-export German-made tanks to Ukraine, and said it wanted to team up with its allies to create two tank battalions of Leopard 2s, equating to about 90 tanks.

But so far, apart from Germany only Poland has given the green light for substantial deliveries. Late last month, Canada announced it would send four Leopard 2 tanks and Norway said on Tuesday it was also providing eight.

 

Definitelly Canadian instructors are playing their part on already ongoing trainings, on some photos and videos I also saw other uniforms from other countries but couldn't tell which (Germans?Norwegians?). Also worth to note it was opinion of several well-connected experts that Ukrainians were informally "accustomizing" themselves with equipment at least from Ramstein meeting if not earlier. Right now they seem to plan for 3-months preparations.

Which is interesting in the context of today's conference and Kofman's thesis that parts of new equipment will perhaps not be available for UA offensive. It seems Milley and Austin were very keen on seeing Ukrainian attacking in the spring (they tell about it several times).

Edited February 14, 2023 by Beleg85

[Zeleban]

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

7 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Depends on how you count. As of 2021 Germany only had 107 operational Leopard 2s.

German qualification of operational doesn't include ones with broken headlights if I recall right 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Jiggathebauce said:

I'm glad you read the articles and found them enlightening. And I agree, elites don't care about economic issues except to benefit themselves as a class. 

Yup.  Kinda built into the definition of "elite"   However, the left leaning elites (liberals and progressives) at least have a belief the less fortunate should have more opportunities to be more fortunate.  Sure, they might shout just as loudly for affordable housing as they do against it being in their backyards, but at least they acknowledge the need.  The right leaning elites philosophically believe the opposite, thinking the less fortunate either do not deserve better or they have everything they need to be better already.  The extreme end of the right thinks the less fortunate already have too much and should see reductions in their fortunes.  Oddly enough, that extreme counts many of the less fortunate as its strongest and most vocal supporters.

7 hours ago, Jiggathebauce said:

You'll find that the only thing I disagree  with you on is  the framing, and that's not your fault. The elites you're referring to who are screaming at the top of their lungs are liberals,not leftists.

...

 

Anyhow, outside of the opening you gave in your response there,  I will keep my politics at a minimum except where relevant to the discussion on the war.  Glad I can participate and add useful perspectives. 

It was directly relevant to this war and gave us our first detailed glimpse into the motivations of all those careless smokers in Russia So yes, thank you for bringing that article to our attention.

To further tie these concepts into this war, for Russia to truly change its ways it needs massive internal societal reform.  We've talked about this at length and have concluded Russian society is not well positioned to toss Putin out the door (or window). 

We've talked about the large numbers of Russians who have fled in the last 10 years, but in particular the large numbers that have left since the war started.  These are, in large part, the "liberals" of Russian society.  In theory they should be in Russia pressing for change, but in reality they departed because they don't feel any obligation to make Russia better.  They just want things to be better for themselves.  Which is understandable as individuals in a totalitarian system don't feel their personal contributions matter.  That is a sentiment that Putin has worked very hard to reinforce, BTW.

Yesterday there was a very informative piece in The Washington Post about who has fled Russia and where they have fled to.  The middle and lower class refugees have gone to a variety of different countries and are likely to integrate into those societies and not return to Russia.  The upper class refugees have gone to Dubai and are likely to return to Russia as soon as they feel it is advantageous to do so.  In other words, Russia's longstanding problem nurturing a middle class just took a huge hit, but its longstanding problem with financially exploitative elites has not.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/13/russia-diaspora-war-ukraine/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F391d5d7%2F63ea72b31b79c61f878f39d4%2F5b6a1f5bade4e277958a3cb5%2F13%2F70%2F63ea72b31b79c61f878f39d4&wp_cu=e17d566bfc90044414eb36edd5675ce3|72E0F70E3B4B42CEE0530100007F2E01

With the liberals gone, what we need is for the masses to realize that Putin's regime is no longer serving their interests (never was, but that's not how they see it).  Unfortunately, for that to happen they need to be unemployed and find the State not taking care of them.  All indications are that this war has greatly accelerated the existing trend towards exactly that outcome.

Unfortunately, a return to the chaos of the 1990s is likely going to produce a new and expedient social contract with someone similar to Putin.  In part because liberal elites are needed to counterbalance the autocratic aligned elites.  With the liberal elites largely outside of Russia and not likely to return, Russia's longstanding tendency towards brute force exploitation will likely continue in a different form.  Hopefully one that isn't as imperialistic as the current regime, but history doesn't favor being optimistic it will.

Steve

[Zeleban]

 

Magyar declares that on the southern flank of Bakhmut it was possible to push the enemy back from the road Konstantinivka - Bakhmut

[Butschi]

37 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

But I think Germany is bitching. They send about 3% of their fleet. If everyone does that we get nowhere. Portugal 10% and Norway 25-40% is the way to go. Poland is also 4% but they have already sent hundreds of T-72s and more are on the way so Poland doesn't count here.

But I don't see how that is really relevant? I mean, noone, well, at least not Germany, forced anyone to pledge their tanks. So if they put pressure on Germany to be allowed to send tanks because Ukraine will have to surrender yesterday if they can't and then, when allowed, don't send them or take their time... well I can understand Pistorius being mildly frustrated. How is that bitching?

[Harmon Rabb]

Gen. David Petraeus: How the war in Ukraine will end (CNN)

Good interview. I get the feeling David Petraeus would be right at home posting on this forum.

[Beleg85]

Interesting charts, trying to figure out how much heavy equipment was lost by both sides. Could be better if he also use LostArmour and other Russian sites.

[The_Capt]

25 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Gen. David Petraeus: How the war in Ukraine will end (CNN)

Good interview. I get the feeling David Petraeus would be right at home posting on this forum.

Are we sure he has not been lurking on this forum?  Again, these are not thing one can fix in even a year or two.

“Bergen: Is Russia failing because of failures of intelligence? Failures of its conscripts? Failures of Russian military culture? All the above? 

Petraeus: All of the above and more. The list is long, including poor campaign design; wholly inadequate training (what were they doing for all those months they were deployed on the northern, eastern, and southern borders of Ukraine?); poor command, control, and communications; inadequate discipline (and a culture that condones war crimes and abuse of local populations); poor equipment (exemplified by turrets blowing off of tanks when fires ignite in them); insufficient logistic capabilities; inability to achieve combined arms effects (to employ all ground and air capabilities effectively together); inadequate organizational architecture; lack of a professional noncommissioned officer corps; a top-down command system that does not promote initiative at lower levels and pervasive corruption that undermines every aspect of their military – and the supporting military-industrial complex.”

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Are we sure he has not been lurking on this forum?  Again, these are not thing one can fix in even a year or two.

“Bergen: Is Russia failing because of failures of intelligence? Failures of its conscripts? Failures of Russian military culture? All the above? 

Petraeus: All of the above and more. The list is long, including poor campaign design; wholly inadequate training (what were they doing for all those months they were deployed on the northern, eastern, and southern borders of Ukraine?); poor command, control, and communications; inadequate discipline (and a culture that condones war crimes and abuse of local populations); poor equipment (exemplified by turrets blowing off of tanks when fires ignite in them); insufficient logistic capabilities; inability to achieve combined arms effects (to employ all ground and air capabilities effectively together); inadequate organizational architecture; lack of a professional noncommissioned officer corps; a top-down command system that does not promote initiative at lower levels and pervasive corruption that undermines every aspect of their military – and the supporting military-industrial complex.”

I pinkie promise not to savage any potential Petraeus delurking on the subject of COIN. I'll really want to, to be clear but I'll resist the urge.

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I pinkie promise not to savage any potential Petraeus delurking on the subject of COIN. I'll really want to, to be clear but I'll resist the urge.

This is why we can't have nice things...

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

But it [ammo supplies] does appear to be a real concern.

__________

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned Monday that Ukraine is using up ammunition far faster than its allies can provide it and putting pressure on Western defense industries, just as Russia ramps up its military offensive.

“The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions and depleting allied stockpiles,” Stoltenberg said. “The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defense industries under strain.”

According to some estimates, Ukraine is firing up to 6,000-7,000 artillery shells each day, around a third of the daily amount that Russia is using almost one year into the war.

Speaking on the eve of a two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers, Stoltenberg said the waiting time for the supply of “large-caliber ammunition has increased from 12 to 28 months,” and that “orders placed today would only be delivered two-and-a-half years later.”

I have to say I'm quite frustrated by the lack of ammo stocks in the US.  When the US invaded Afghanistan and Iraq it ran down supplies of several calibers of ammo.  At the time I was in contact with someone high up in one of the suppliers of such ammo and he said several rounds they made were getting produced, crated, and loaded directly onto planes going to those two countries.  They were running their production 24/7 and getting mothballed equipment brought online.

These shortages happened when engaging fairly modest sized irregular forces.  WTF did they think would happen when engaging a nation state with hundreds of thousands of active military in the field?

My guess, and it is just that, is that the US did what all countries like to do... fix the immediate problem and kick the can for the bigger problem down the road as far as possible.  So yes, they did fix the supply situation for COIN type conflicts as I don't recall hearing about any shortages between the early days and the end of ISAF's mission in Afghanistan, but they took no meaningful action to address supplies for a full on conventional conflict.

Again, this is another reason why the Chinese should be swearing under their breath.  It is very likely that the US and others will now fix the shortcomings so that they are ready to handle the next conflict appropriately.  Since China is angling for that conflict to be with them, this is not going to make them happy.

Steve

[Billy Ringo]

42 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The right leaning elites philosophically believe the opposite, thinking the less fortunate either do not deserve better or they have everything they need to be better already.  The extreme end of the right thinks the less fortunate already have too much and should see reductions in their fortunes.  Oddly enough, that extreme counts many of the less fortunate as its strongest and most vocal supporters.

If this is solely about Russian elites, my perception is that this is a very valid statement. If it's about right leaning elites in North America and many parts of Europe, I think it's painting with a VERY broad brush as my personal experience indicates otherwise.  And much of that work is done quietly without the need to seek attention.  But---I'd rather not take this discussion further into unrelated topics so I will not reply further.

Maybe it's just me, but second guessing or questioning Poland's contribution to Ukraine over the past 12 months would put one on the deep side of a losing argument. But that's just me.

All the talk about the delay in getting weapons and training to Ukraine, shortages of ammunition and questioning whether Ukraine can hold the Russians off until the cavalry arrives late Spring or early Summer, makes me wonder whether the arms and ammunition are already in-country and ready to flatten a Russian advance.  It makes no sense to hear so much discussion about what Ukraine doesn't have, their weaknesses.  

Would Russia be able to accurately detect a large buildup of Ukrainian forces?  Tanks, new airplanes, additional long-range missiles, etc.   Is it possible that Ukraine is simply waiting for Russia to expose themselves by going on the offensive, then unleash holy Hell only on the Russians?  Is it possible to "hide" or conceal a significant amount of new military hardware?

[danfrodo]

7 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

I just will boycot this thread is I think the wisest I can do. 

Really ChuckDyke?  I see your posts complaining about lack of threads about the game -- so play the game and make posts on those threads.  I just did a little after action series on RT-BP1 fight (was f-ing epic!).

Also, IIRC, only BS new module is delayed due to the war?  Everything else is just delayed due to the usual reasons everything takes forever.  Steve being here doesn't delay anything IMO because he can walk and chew gum.  He spends some time here every day but it's not like he can't do his day job and this.  And given that this current war will be a whole series of BS modules (I am praying for this) then studying this war is actually part of his job.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

If this is solely about Russian elites, my perception is that this is a very valid statement. If it's about right leaning elites in North America and many parts of Europe, I think it's painting with a VERY broad brush as my personal experience indicates otherwise. 

Oh, for sure it is a broad brush.  We're talking about macro and that by definition means not getting into the micro nuances.  The importance of macro analysis is assessing the factors in play according to what is most influential.  Case in point is me saying that Russia Sucks At War™.  As a macro statement this is broad, but I think true.  However, micro examination will show that there's plenty of things that Russia does not suck at or sucks less than other things.  Nuance is important and it's why we discuss things in detail here.  However, macro analysis is still useful for predicting trends, such as Russia losing this war because it sucks more than it doesn't suck and/or sucks at the things that are critical.

With that in mind, my broad brush about the basic stances of the various political forces was intended to represent the West as well as Russia.  How that manifests itself in the West, however, is very different than Russia.  Another broad brush, but that's all we should be doing here

Steve

[sburke]

GOP leaders start laying groundwork for more Ukraine aid (yahoo.com)

 

Ex-Gazprom official says decades of the Russian gas giant's work has been 'flushed down the toilet', with export revenues expected to halve this year (yahoo.com)

Edited February 14, 2023 by sburke

[danfrodo]

Summary today here, a lot of talk of tanks and he does some math to add up what UKR and RU probably have.  He repeats the ongoing rumor that RU is planning a massive air attack.  I suppose that attack would be a drone swarm + air craft to overwhelm AD.  Hopefully RU jets will be over aggressive & take huge losses -- which would be very uncharacteristic of Putin to spend gold assets to get pig iron return.

What I am wondering about more than the tanks right now is the delivery/training/deployment of IFVs -- where are those in the pipeline I wonder?

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/14/2152434/-Ukraine-update-Analysts-warn-that-Russia-is-preparing-to-launch-an-air-campaign

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Zeleban]

Description of a typical attack by forces of a DPR company reinforced with tanks from Mashovets.

 

I will tell you the story of one battle...

Place of events - the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk, the area south of Avdiivka, the village of Oprosne.

Time - a couple of days ago (to be more precise - February 9).

10.05 - the assault group of the DPR from the 1st motorized rifle battalion of the 1st "Slavyanskaya" motorized rifle brigade from their positions in the village of Oprosna in the amount of a motorized rifle platoon, divided into "small infantry groups" of 8-10 people, begins advancing on foot in a northern direction through forest plantation with the clear goal of reaching the border of the village of Severnoye - the western outskirts of Avdiivka and gaining a foothold there. At the same time, a tank platoon (3 tanks of the T-72 type) from the tank battalion of the 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade is secretly (as it seems to them) advanced to the firing positions on the outskirts of Oprosnoye, and an armored group (up to a motorized rifle platoon) from that the same 1st MRBn of the 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade for 1 BMP-2 and 2 MT-LB ...

 

10.15 - The whole group begins to move in the general direction "to the north", having in front of them "small infantry groups", which on foot try to "infiltrate" as far as possible to the north, it must be understood as a "vanguard detachment". All this takes place under the cover of liquid and not very accurate enemy mortar and artillery fire. From the right flank, this movement is also covered by the intense fire of the ZU-23-2 from the side of the truck, hidden in the sparse bushes and woodlands.

10.35 - 10.40 - A unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine clearly establishes the direction of movement and combat order of the attacking motorized rifle company (MRC) of the enemy, reinforced by a tank platoon, and opens heavy fire on the enemy during his movement, including using anti-tank weapons ... Ukrainian mortars add fun , which, with the transfer of fire, sequentially, "along the lines", are trying to inflict a fire defeat on the attacking enemy unit ... The enemy slows down its movement, but still tries to continue it further, even under the fire of the defending Ukrainian unit.

Not later than 11.26 ... one of the enemy T-72s moving on the left flank of the attacking enemy motorized rifle company, hoping to bypass the main positions of the Ukrainian unit from the flank - gets stuck in a pit previously unnoticed by its crew, and then stalls there.

11.43 ... One of the ATGMs of the Ukrainian unit hits another T-72 not far from the one that got stuck, and makes it stop too ... After about 2 minutes, it becomes clear that some kind of "fire" has occurred in the engine compartment of the tank. The crew leaves the combat vehicle and informs their "bosses" that "the tank has been hit", and they are forced to return to their "starting positions". The third tank, at the same time, takes cover in the "folds of the terrain" and even from time to time fires at Ukrainian positions...

At the same time, the enemy motorized rifle platoon, operating "on the armor", tried to partially dismount and join the second motorized rifle platoon, which was walking in front of it on landing (as a "forward detachment"), was timely detected and, due to the fire of the Ukrainian unit, was forced to lie down there ...

Within 20-30 minutes, a very intense radio exchange takes place between all the actors from the enemy’s side, with a very frequent use of a variety of idiomatic and phraseological statements ... Moreover, after another 15 minutes of intense firefight between the “forward detachment”, the surviving tank , part of the "reserve armored group" of the enemy and the Ukrainian unit defending in this area, its key event takes place - the Ukrainians manage to hit 3 enemy combat vehicles at once - the tank that survived by this moment, 1 BMP-2 and 1 MT-LB.

All affected AFVs become "immobile", and in the damaged MT-LB, the main part of the ammunition load is also detonated, which, one must understand, she was carrying for the entire attacking MRC ...