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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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6 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

Here is the first official overtime view of RUS personal casualties. (that I have seen)

If those are KIA, it will be 3-4x injured - so say about 3200 cas per day.  Well the whole “Russians don’t lose wars of attrition” theory is going to be tested at those rates.

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5 hours ago, Huba said:

Fun with mines. Sorry if it's a repost, but definitely worth seeing:

This years Darwin's awards voting should put Oscars and Golden Globes to shame.So many worthy competitors.

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Here is my rough map - other directin of Russian attack was north from Mykilske. They tried to seiz UKR strongpoints at mine #1 workshops and air-feeding shaft of mine #!. And fight for latter was also fierce. There was a video of dozens bodies near treeplant - this is from this place. UKR had also main strongpoint on Pivdenno-Donbaska (Southern-Donbasian) coal mine #1, which keeps road Vuhledar-Maryinka. In firsr two days Russians could came almost to the road in the mine area, but soon vere thrown back. So, until they breakthrough line of strongholds NE from Vuhledar, they can't bypass the town. 

Thus, minimal dimension of battlefield from Pavlivka to air-feed shaft is approx 10 x 5 km. This is about proper CM map sizes for even not large-scale modern operations. And this is I don't take into account possible Russian attempts west from the town on the line Prechystivka-Vuhledar. But its took place, though initially were unsuccessful for Russians

PS. Mashovets wrote today, that UKR artillery destroyed Russian ammo supply convoy near Vuhledar, destroying dozen trucks and several armored vehicles. Looking for photos/videos.

Thanks for clarification Haiduk, excellent analysis. Judging by Russian telegrams, they give a lot importance to "liberating" the coalmine east of the town. You are right some of mechanized columns were massacred while probably trying to reach it.

Just the whole situation seems like strategic oddity. I get Vuhledar has a value, but whole southern front has something like 120km+ of largely open spaces, and Moskals are assaulting and losing heaps of their elite soldiers for this very one cluster of blocks.

Also judging by your map Ukrainians are still holding northern outskirts of Pavlivka, or just northern banks of Kashlahach river? Kudos to those brave folks.

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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

If those are KIA, it will be 3-4x injured - so say about 3200 cas per day.  Well the whole “Russians don’t lose wars of attrition” theory is going to be tested at those rates.

Yeah, just leaves me wondering what kind of loss ratio Ukraine is managing to pull off here. Even 1:3 is still horrible casualty amounts.

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1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Well here is the flip side of the coin for you:

https://asiatimes.com/2023/02/breaking-russia-more-like-breaking-ourselves/

A lot of parallel narratives with MacGregor, except for the somewhat meandering journey through Iraq.

- "Why can't win, we should stop trying.  We should have never have started."

And somehow this would make the world a better place?

The flip-side to the flip-side:

 - "We didn't start this, they can't win.  We should double down."

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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

If those are KIA, it will be 3-4x injured - so say about 3200 cas per day.  Well the whole “Russians don’t lose wars of attrition” theory is going to be tested at those rates.

British Intelligence say it is based on Ukrainian data which they cannot verify. Real number of casualties are likely much less (ofc. nobody knows how much they are buffed; we had here whole episodes of podcasts with analysts trying to solve this out; nobody convincingly did so far). However trends are clearly visible- a lot of heavy clashes last week.

Edited by Beleg85
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1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Well here is the flip side of the coin for you:

https://asiatimes.com/2023/02/breaking-russia-more-like-breaking-ourselves/

[...] Brandon lives by Herman Kahn's mantra that, "I'm against fashionable thinking." Therefore, his entire life's work has been predicated on challenging conventional wisdom and assumptions on a variety of matters, notably in national security.[...]
https://www.brandonweichert.com/

A person who likes to go against established thinking even if it is right, I am afraid.

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3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

British Intelligence say it is based on Ukrainian data which they cannot verify. Real number of casualties are likely much less (ofc. nobody knows how much they are buffed; we had here whole episodes of podcasts with analysts trying to solve this out; nobody convincingly did so far). However trends are clearly visible- a lot of heavy clashes last week.

Even at 50% of the declared number we are talking 2 BTGs per day (1600) - but I am not sure the BTG is even a formed unit anymore for the RA.  Have to wonder what the Russian medical system looks like at this point.

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1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Well here is the flip side of the coin for you:

https://asiatimes.com/2023/02/breaking-russia-more-like-breaking-ourselves/

Rubbish article.

Quote

Now with news breaking from the controversial investigative journalist, Seymour Hersh, that last September the Nordstream pipeline connecting bountiful and cheap Russian natural gas to Europe via Germany may have been sabotaged by the United States, an entirely new element of this slow-rolling disaster in Europe unfolds.

Hehe, good "source"

Quote

All that America’s intervention in Ukraine has thus far achieved is to totally militate Russia against Ukraine and the West–meaning that no deal to save the Ukrainians will be made anytime soon.

Another pacifist... Attempting to "rescue" Ukraine.
People like this frequently falter when asked what they would do if Russia launched another attack after annexing some territory.

Edited by Sekai
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45 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Also judging by your map Ukrainians are still holding northern outskirts of Pavlivka, or just northern banks of Kashlahach river? Kudos to those brave folks.

Yes, but on northern side of river there are only the farm, elevator and dachas of Pavlivka, whole settlement is on southern bank. 

50 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I get Vuhledar has a value, but whole southern front has something like 120km+ of largely open spaces, and Moskals are assaulting and losing heaps of their elite soldiers for this very one cluster of blocks.

 There was an opinion Russians want to eliminate potential threaten to their railroad and logistic ways around Volnovakha.

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2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

If those are KIA, it will be 3-4x injured - so say about 3200 cas per day.  Well the whole “Russians don’t lose wars of attrition” theory is going to be tested at those rates.

~800 KIA/day is a huge number.  For a WWII comparison, the allies had ~4400 KIA in the first 24 hours of D-day with a landing force of about 160K.

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Well, I've found source of information about "1:1 losses rate since January around Bakhmut", This is from interview with ArtyGreen - known figure of Debaltsevo battle in 2015, junior officer, who organized brilliant "horizontal" system of artillery support, targeting and info transmitting, which allowed to hold the town enough long time.

But as often happens, his words were took out of context and shared in twitter in biased sense. He told that 1:1  rate of losses was not in whole Bakhmut direction, but particularly in final stage of Soledar defense, when UKR troops withdrew from the town and often turned out in encirclement and when UKR comamnd decided to win some time for new defense lines establishing and threw in attack battalion of 46th air-assault brigade, which led to additional casualties, because we counter-attacked on the enemy who had advantage in infantry. 

Edited by Haiduk
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4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Well, I've found source of information about "1:1 losses rate since January around Bakhmut", This is from interview with ArtyGreen - known figure of Debaltsevo battle in 2015, junior officer, who organized brilliant "horizontal" system of artillery support, targeting and info transmitting, which allowed to hold the town enough long time.

But as often happens, his words were took out of context and shared in twitter in biased sense. He told that 1:1  rate of losses was not in whole Bakhmut direction, but particularly in final stage of Soledar defense, when UKR troops withdrew from the town and often turned out in encirclement and when UKR comamnd decided to win some time for new defense lines establishing and threw in attack battalion of 46th air-assault brigade, which led to additional casualties, because we counter-attacked on the enemy who had advantage in infantry. 

so pretty much the worst case situation in the battle was the only point Russia could achieve parity.  makes sense.

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9 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Ukrainian wounded are already treated all over Europe at this very moment.

Another example of the competitive advantage Ukraine has over Russia.  Ukraine has allies to help with medical care, while Russia has to do it all on its own.

Russia's healthcare system wasn't good before this war, imagine what it is like now that it has many thousands of wounded coming into the system every month.  Even treating the lightly wounded is difficult, but the longer term patients need beds and care.  There is no way this is happening without also affecting what care civilians receive.  And who knows how many people in health care (nurses, doctors, administrators, etc.) that fled the country or were stupidly mobilized.

Steve

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16 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Have to wonder what the Russian medical system looks like at this point.

I have been wondering about this side of the war for a while now. Is it too hard on the heart to cover? A few MBTs here, a few there. That gets covered. Meanwhile, Ukrainians are cast all over Europe. Some in horrible shape from wounds. The refugees last March obtained a lot of coverage off the bat. Is the media covering this side of the war adequately now? 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-this-may-be-russias-first-kamikaze-drone-boat-attack

Drone boat attack in the news. A relative pin prick compared to the humanitarian story. And humanitarian side of the war will have an important impact on the geopolitics moving forward. 

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41 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Even at 50% of the declared number we are talking 2 BTGs per day (1600) - but I am not sure the BTG is even a formed unit anymore for the RA.  Have to wonder what the Russian medical system looks like at this point.

Ukrainian official headcount is as much as I understand it, based on "eliminated", since they cannot precisely tell how many of them are KIA/WIA and state of their wounds. Adding 3xtimes more wounded, even after tapping down official data by 50%, is thus probably still exagarreted. Russian medical system...well we only know for sure Ukrainian one is better. But still both sides have problems with keeping "golden hour" from frontline to operations table, this was specifically stated by medical volunteers with experience from Iraq/Afghan. Nobody can realistically count on helicopter medevac, for example. On Russian side they may occassionally flow some sorties for very big fishes, like wounded colonels with favours in HighCommand, but that seems to be it.

K.Muzyka after journey with Kofman and several others prominent analytics to Ukraine in summer, in which they spoke with both local and central commanders, later remarked in one of his threads that in his view numbers reported by local UA commands do not match up with total headcount at all, i.e. somebody is doing creative accounting, probably on several levels. He was heavily criticized in our netsphere for it and refused to elaborate further on (it's still writing on the water anyway), but there are others too who have serious doubts about validity of these numbers. Judging by stories from Ukrainian and Polish hospitals, Ukrainian side carnage is also tragic. But again, this is all anecdotal and not quantitive.

Ofc. Russian data is pure circus, they already destroyed several Bradleys.

Edited by Beleg85
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5 hours ago, Huba said:

RAAM or similar mining systems + snowfall that quickly conceals the mines sounds like an especially nasty combination... 

That and it is difficult for drivers even under perfect conditions to spot things on the ground in front of them unless very obvious.  Going backwards?  Forget about it.

Steve

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