How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Quick reminder Ukraine does suffer losses of western artillery, including SPGs. I hope NATO is prepped to keep increasing artillery shipments.

 

That is not a destroyed vehicle.  It might need 4th line refit and repair (can’t see the inside) but I have seen destroyed vehicles and this one is recoverable.

 

[Zeleban]

 

In 2022, Russia has significantly increased its purchases of microchips. China has completely replaced the main pre-war electronics suppliers - the countries of the European Union

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, JonS said:

It really isn't.

Classifying and responding to cyber attacks isn't "murky"?  Good to know.

Steve

[Combatintman]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

That is not a destroyed vehicle.  It might need 4th line refit and repair (can’t see the inside) but I have seen destroyed vehicles and this one is recoverable.

 

You obviously don't work in the vehicle insurance industry 

[FlemFire]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The other thing I found myself wondering was why they didn't pull back and use that RPG or something else once they figured out the defenders were in dug in good and weren't going to give up easily.  Putting even an AT round through one of those windows would have probably caused more damage than the hand grenades.

 

Same. The second they saw the windows already boarded with stones, they should have recognized it as virtually prefigured to be defended. But another red flag would be that if the enemy knows they're surrounded but are not surrendering then either they're going full seppuku or they've got a line of communication telling them to hold out. I have to imagine that's where the artillery strike came in at toward the end. These are things you learn from, I suppose, but to me CQB is so deadly I just don't see the point of physically entering a building you have surrounded. Pointmen definitely put all their nuts on the table walking into places like that. I can't even conceive of that level of courage.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Classifying and responding to cyber attacks isn't "murky"?  Good to know.

Steve

Oh, that's murky. But extra-judicial, extra-territorial murders aren't.

[The_Capt]

26 minutes ago, JonS said:

Oh, that's murky. But extra-judicial, extra-territorial murders aren't.

In the business we call these "Uh-Oh's!".  Actually there is a lot of disagreement on the whole thing.  Extra-judicial murder is illegal; however, lawful engagement of a combatant is not.  The problem lies in the definition of combatant.  Terrorists etc appear to exist in a legal loophole - depending on who one asks:

 https://www.corteidh.or.cr/tablas/a21908.pdf 

 

[kevinkin]

Gee, don't take this guy to look over a Chinese menu. They won't keep the light on for you.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-chancellor-olaf-scholz-doubles-down-on-refusal-of-fighter-jets-for-ukraine/

[akd]

Direct hit with an ATGM (looks like) or some sort of HEAT warhead:

 

[Bil Hardenberger]

14 minutes ago, akd said:

Direct hit with an ATGM (looks like) or some sort of HEAT warhead:

 

I guess that's the kind of war they are in where they attack a CASEVAC op... brutal stuff... Brimstone perhaps?

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Gee, don't take this guy to look over a Chinese menu. They won't keep the light on for you.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-chancellor-olaf-scholz-doubles-down-on-refusal-of-fighter-jets-for-ukraine/

I don't think he is the primary source for the aircraft. If he tries to really block something that is otherwise underway i expect he will by quietly ignored if possible, or run over noisily if he insists. He still thinks there is an acceptable outcome other than Russia just flat out losing. Twenty six or twenty seven members of NATO seem to be past that particular hang up.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

I guess that's the kind of war they are in where they attack a CASEVAC op... brutal stuff... Brimstone perhaps?

I think the Ukrainian position is that they can evacuate back to Russia any time they want. If they are in Ukraine, and not very actively waving a white flag, well that might be a poor choice.

[Zeleban]

7 minutes ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

I guess that's the kind of war they are in where they attack a CASEVAC op... brutal stuff... Brimstone perhaps?

 

the first hit was definitely an ATGM. You can clearly see the tracer member of a guided missile

[Bil Hardenberger]

2 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

the first hit was definitely an ATGM. You can clearly see the tracer member of a guided missile

The first hit looked like an RPG to me... you can clearly see the shell in flight prior to impact. The other two though... those definitely looked like something else.

[Yskonyn]

We have now reached page 1985 of this thread. Rather symbolic if you ask me.

Keep the great discussion/analyses and what not coming guys. I am not able to contribute much, but I learn lots every day and am amazed at the knowledge at display in this community. Truely something special and not something I’ve seen in any other gaming community.

For our Ukranian members; strength and courage! 

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

The first hit looked like an RPG to me... you can clearly see the shell in flight prior to impact. The other two though... those definitely looked like something else.

That second one looks like another RPG, you can see it come in from the right.  Those look like HEAT rounds with the slug flying off after the initial explosion.

Sucks to be them.  Don’t see any Red Crosses, so this is a righteous shoot, but still nasty.

[Yskonyn]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That second one looks like another RPG, you can see it come in from the right.  Those look like HEAT rounds with the slug flying off after the initial explosion.

Sucks to be them.  Don’t see any Red Crosses, so this is a righteous shoot, but still nasty.

Perhaps not a great place to discuss gory details, but the bodies look rather intact in the aftermath shots. Is this to be expected?

Is their gear keeping the fleshy bits in?

I’d expect serious dismemberment after such a hit.

If this is not the place to talk about this then that’s absolutely understood and I digress, but I cannot help being curious about the ‘(bio)technical’ side of this, for the lack of a better term. 

Edited January 30, 2023 by Yskonyn

[Bil Hardenberger]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That second one looks like another RPG, you can see it come in from the right.  Those look like HEAT rounds with the slug flying off after the initial explosion.

Sucks to be them.  Don’t see any Red Crosses, so this is a righteous shoot, but still nasty.

Upon further review.. I think you're right Warren.  Actually it looks like all three rounds may be coming from the same location.. so maybe only one weapon is involved.

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, Yskonyn said:

Perhaps not a great place to discuss gory details, but the bodies look rather intact in the aftermath shots. Is this to be expected?

Is their gear keeping the fleshy bits in?

I’d expect serious dismemberment after such a hit.

If this is not the place to talk about this then that’s absolutely understood and I digress, but I cannot help being curious about the ‘(bio)technical’ side of this, for the lack of a better term. 

Well in the first hit there is clearly explosive trauma.  A HEAT round is not designed for AP.  As the name suggests it is designed to penetrate armor and then once behind it, spray hot metal and bounce all over the insides of a vehicle.  So hitting a person or group of people with a HEAT round is both sub-optimal and overkill at the same time.

The inverted cone of the HEAT round forms a hot very fast moving slug (you can actually see their contrails) after the initial explosion.  The explosion itself does create blast and frag, obviously but most of the energy is converted into that slug.  So what?  Well unless you are hit by that slug directly (and in the first hit it looks like someone’s head has been taken off by it), then you normally “only” get fragmentation from the casing.  This can still kill you but you are peppered to death vice blown apart, massive blood loss being the primary mechanism of mortality.  In most of these cases it looks like blast and frag got them while the slug flew off and away.

[pintere]

8 minutes ago, Yskonyn said:

Perhaps not a great place to discuss gory details, but the bodies look rather intact in the aftermath shots. Is this to be expected?

Is their gear keeping the fleshy bits in?

I’d expect serious dismemberment after such a hit.

Granted this is mostly speculation… but I’d assume that most of the dismembering in modern war comes from shrapnel rather than the actual blast of an explosion. That’s a big boom, of course, but I don’t think a HEAT round would generate that much shrapnel and so the blast (though plenty fatal) wouldn’t generate that kind of damage.

[Bufo]

Russian propaganda video, I wonder if it works with anybody:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/10p0wl5/russian_propaganda_video_oriented_specifically_to/

Edited January 30, 2023 by Bufo

[NamEndedAllen]

Opinion in the Wash Post, mirroring what many here have advocated for quite a while.  (Emphasis mine)

“Putin didn’t invade because he thought that Ukraine was going to join NATO. He always knew that was vanishingly unlikely. He attacked Ukraine because he believed — with abundant evidence — that we were not really serious about protecting Ukraine. He attacked because he wanted to rebuild the old Soviet imperium, and because he believed — foolishly — that he was going to win. If we had been brave and consistent enough to bring Ukraine into NATO — if we had actually meant what we said — then this utter catastrophe would have been averted. I know that, in some European capitals, this outcome will seem hard to digest. But the logic is inescapable. For the sake of stability and peace, Ukraine now needs clarity about its position in the Euro-Atlantic security architecture. All our dodging and weaving has ended in slaughter.
 

Ukrainians should be given everything they need to finish this war, as quickly as possible, and we should begin the process of admitting Ukraine to NATO, and begin it now. It would be no use if Moscow complains. They had a case once, and they were heard with respect. That case has been pulverized by the bombs and missiles of Putin.”

Opinion by Boris Johnson January 30, 2023 at 11:16 a.m. PT

Edited January 30, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[Zeleban]

31 minutes ago, Bufo said:

Russian propaganda video, I wonder if it works with anybody:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/10p0wl5/russian_propaganda_video_oriented_specifically_to/

The Russian propaganda machine is gaining momentum. There will be more videos like this in the future. Now America is invulnerable to Russian missiles because of the fear of retaliation. But propagandist "intercontinental missiles" will be launched regularly. I wonder how America will respond. In the 80s, I think Hollywood and pop music became one of the significant factors in the collapse of the USSR. Soviet people watched these films and they formed a positive perception of the West. Big beautiful houses, spectacular cars. They could compare their difficult gray life with life on the other side of the border. This greatly influenced the consciousness of these people. No wonder the KGB banned the distribution of such materials.

[Lethaface]

31 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Opinion in the Wash Post, mirroring what many here have advocated for quite a while.  (Emphasis mine)

“Putin didn’t invade because he thought that Ukraine was going to join NATO. He always knew that was vanishingly unlikely. He attacked Ukraine because he believed — with abundant evidence — that we were not really serious about protecting Ukraine. He attacked because he wanted to rebuild the old Soviet imperium, and because he believed — foolishly — that he was going to win. If we had been brave and consistent enough to bring Ukraine into NATO — if we had actually meant what we said — then this utter catastrophe would have been averted. I know that, in some European capitals, this outcome will seem hard to digest. But the logic is inescapable. For the sake of stability and peace, Ukraine now needs clarity about its position in the Euro-Atlantic security architecture. All our dodging and weaving has ended in slaughter.
 

Ukrainians should be given everything they need to finish this war, as quickly as possible, and we should begin the process of admitting Ukraine to NATO, and begin it now. It would be no use if Moscow complains. They had a case once, and they were heard with respect. That case has been pulverized by the bombs and missiles of Putin.”

Opinion by Boris Johnson January 30, 2023 at 11:16 a.m. PT

Old Boris feeling relevant again. It's mostly hindsight and calling for the obvious.

[Lethaface]

2 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

The Russian propaganda machine is gaining momentum. There will be more videos like this in the future. Now America is invulnerable to Russian missiles because of the fear of retaliation. But propagandist "intercontinental missiles" will be launched regularly. I wonder how America will respond. In the 80s, I think Hollywood and pop music became one of the significant factors in the collapse of the USSR. Soviet people watched these films and they formed a positive perception of the West. Big beautiful houses, spectacular cars. They could compare their difficult gray life with life on the other side of the border. This greatly influenced the consciousness of these people. No wonder the KGB banned the distribution of such materials.

I don't think this is one of the better examples of Russian propaganda. They seem to get worse at it lol. I chuckled at one of the comment 'new Command & Conquer trailer just dropped.'