How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

38 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Long article from CNN about the US advising Ukraine to give up Bakhmut and focus on bigger actions.  This gets back to something I said pages ago which was I hope Ukraine is holding Bakhmut only to keep Russia distracted, not the other way around.  This could be a smokescreen for bigger things already in motion, or it could be that Ukraine has really been distracted by Russia's offensive there.  Either way, there does seem to be a legitimate message from the West which boils down to "we're giving you lots of expensive things with a wide array of capabilities.  Don't just use them for trench warfare".

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/politics/ukraine-shift-tactics-bakhmut/index.html

While sure the Ukrainians are prone to mistakes like anyone else, we should recall the messaging before the Kharkiv offensive, which was pretty much very skeptical of any Ukrainian offensive potential and quite cautious about Kherson, much less two offensives at the same time.  

[panzermartin]

13 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Do we have a source for this speech other than this idiot? he spent days arguing with ppl over the definition of a tank and insisting he was correct. If he told me the sky was blue, I would triple check him. 

 

 

You mean it could be deep fake AI? 

[FancyCat]

3 hours ago, LukeFF said:

Somewhere Eisenhower is spinning in his grave right now. 

Yeah, I'm not finding any info about a U.S Chamber of Commerce meeting in Boca Raton, or that Zelensky was going to speak or has spoken to the U.S Chamber of Commerce. Unless another source can be uncovered, this is probably fake. 

[The_Capt]

42 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Long article from CNN about the US advising Ukraine to give up Bakhmut and focus on bigger actions.  This gets back to something I said pages ago which was I hope Ukraine is holding Bakhmut only to keep Russia distracted, not the other way around.  This could be a smokescreen for bigger things already in motion, or it could be that Ukraine has really been distracted by Russia's offensive there.  Either way, there does seem to be a legitimate message from the West which boils down to "we're giving you lots of expensive things with a wide array of capabilities.  Don't just use them for trench warfare".

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/politics/ukraine-shift-tactics-bakhmut/index.html

Hmm, well another spin on this is that the RA is effectively fixed (and fixated) at Bakhmut.  In order to sustain these grinding assaults the RA is pretty concentrated in supporting the effort.  Given UA ISR superiority (and if they don’t have it, why not?), then knowing where the RA is, and keeping them there is worth the effort, much as the battles around Severodonetsk were last summer.

None of the new kit everyone is howling about is going to be fed into Bakhmut anytime soon.  So long as the UA has ammo and ISR they should be able to concentrate and chew up RA assets at speed, which could very well make the next offensive more viable, just like exhausting RA at Severodonetsk made the Fall offensive more viable.

Probably a good sign that Ukraine is definitively winning, western powers are armchair quarterbacking.

[FancyCat]

4 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

You mean it could be deep fake AI? 

No sourcing of clip, no evidence of meeting exists, just this video clip, certainly, hes got a huge amount of speeches to get clips and audio from, i know its not to be trusted unless verified. 

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Lethaface said:

Some ex-general here has commented that UKR might be planning to use the Western MBTs as a mobile reserve to deal with any potential new Russian offensives. Not sure if that makes sense, he sometimes does and sometimes doesn't imho. 

Is the delta between capabilities that Abrams/Leo2 give versus the tanks UKR already have large enough to enable new type of operations we haven't really seen so far? 
But enough has been said already on the subject here by people more in the know so I'll just observe and draw conclusions when they are to be drawn.

I am curious if Ukraine can make (another) large move this winter. I had expected there to be some new developments. But the winter isn't over yet.

In terms of how things have developed this winter it is hard to overemphasize how much warmer it has been than normal, almost throughout eastern Ukraine.  Forecast for Luhansk is lows about -3 Celsius, and highs about 1-2 Celsius. That is not exactly a hard freeze. Even that is colder than it has been.

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Yeah, Michael Tracey seen better days for sure...

Micheal Tracey is the tankiest tankiie who ever carried vodka for the Kremlin. He couldn't tankie more if he had a one hour daily show on Russian state TV. I do hope he charged more for his soul than that fool from the FBI.

34 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Hmm, well another spin on this is that the RA is effectively fixed (and fixated) at Bakhmut.  In order to sustain these grinding assaults the RA is pretty concentrated in supporting the effort.  Given UA ISR superiority (and if they don’t have it, why not?), then knowing where the RA is, and keeping them there is worth the effort, much as the battles around Severodonetsk were last summer.

None of the new kit everyone is howling about is going to be fed into Bakhmut anytime soon.  So long as the UA has ammo and ISR they should be able to concentrate and chew up RA assets at speed, which could very well make the next offensive more viable, just like exhausting RA at Severodonetsk made the Fall offensive more viable.

Probably a good sign that Ukraine is definitively winning, western powers are armchair quarterbacking.

Out of likes so will simply say I agree 100%.

 

Edited January 25, 2023 by dan/california

[FancyCat]

Found the source, Zelensky gave a speech to a meeting of the National Association of State Chambers, a organization to promote cooperation among state Chambers of Commerce. Half of the speech is going over the destruction of Ukraine by Russia, emphasizing U.S cooperation towards victory, the other half, urging U.S companies to invest and help rebuild Ukraine. 

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/3657831-zelensky-calls-on-american-businesses-to-cooperate-with-ukraine-now.html

Quote

He noted that occupying Ukrainian territories, Russia takes away equipment from local factories, the contents of warehouses and stores, and even people as a resource. According to him, the process of overcoming the consequences of Russia's "predatory policy" will begin after Ukraine's victory, as well as the process of rebuilding the country's infrastructure and economy, which will become the largest economic project of our time in Europe.

"It is obvious that American business can become the locomotive that will once again push forward global economic growth," he said.

For the sake of future high results "in all sectors – from weapons and defense to construction, from communications to agriculture, from transport to IT, from banks to medicine," Zelensky invited American businesses to work with Ukraine now.

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/videos/pislya-zavershennya-vijni-amerikanskij-biznes-mozhe-stati-lo-4077

https://www.statechambers.org/winter-meeting

Sounds fine to me, viewed in total context, just a appeal to U.S businesses to invest in Ukraine, mentioning those big businesses to advance that Ukraine is worth investing in. Tracey's framing is misleading to say the least, and the Abrams is mentioned as always, with a focus towards arming Ukraine. 

Edited January 25, 2023 by FancyCat

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Russia now is (formally at least) fully rejecting modernity in all its manifestation, except weapons of course.

Fear and hatred fuels so-called fundamentalism, revolt against modernity across the planet these days, not limited to Russia. So Russian continuing cyberwar using influencers and social media to spread this crapulence does find fertile ground in many nations.

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

his party (Sweden Democrats) wants Sweden to send 10-12 Stridsvagn 122 (a modernized version of Leopard 2A5) to Ukraine) 

Those play quite well against Russian armor in Steel Beasts Pro.

[Beleg85]

32 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Fear and hatred fuels so-called fundamentalism, revolt against modernity across the planet these days, not limited to Russia. So Russian continuing cyberwar using influencers and social media to spread this crapulence does find fertile ground in many nations.

There is also visible hand waived toward some countries of the Global South here, just as we saw at Valdai Club meeting. Note how many tours Lavrov did in Africa, Middle East and South America in last months. Behind this ideological facade of "spiritualism vs. secularism", Kremlin tries very activelly to gather some countries around antimperialistic flag, playing old greviances toward West. In some BRICS countries he seem to succeed somewhat.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64373448

Some people here specializing in those countries predict there is a lot of rivalry between western services and Russia ones for access to various weapons and ammo that are no longer produced and suddenly became valuable.

[Vet 0369]

15 hours ago, Huba said:

All right then, if that's settled, we can get back to arguing which tanks are to be sent and how many  So here are my guesses:

- Chally2 seems to be happening already, but a company is quite pointless. Either the numbers have to be increased so that a full battalion/ mech brigade can be equipped with it, or it will be used in some kinda of a ring exchange scheme with one of the smaller Leo2 operators.
- Leclerc and Ariete were not pledged at the moment, and seem quite unlikely. If FR and IT decide to jump on the tank bandwagon, the same principle as with Challenger applies.
- There seems to be around 100 Leo2 in the pool already, with perhaps at least 30 more available from DE. This should be enough for an armored brigade and then some, depending on how big the battalions are (31 or 44 vehicles). In the long term at least double that could probably be scrapped up when everyone starts fixing the available vehicles
- There's A LOT of Leo1 around too - if Greeks agree to participate, there can be a few hundred available. UA already have a lot of experience servicing the chassis/ drivetrain aspect of them, so that's a big plus.
- I guess Polish PT-91 are still on the table, perhaps in the second part of the year
- And this leaves the question of US participation. I don't buy the argument that M1 is not possible due to various technical reasons. It weighs the same as Leo2, the engine is harder to fix but reportedly more reliable, there are ways around that; fuel doesn't seem to be a problem, it's not like UA is having a shortage or there are 200km fuel runs to be made. We already heard the M1s are available for a swap exchange scheme and that is surely going to happen in my opinion.
 

As a Marine Grunt, about the only thing I know about armor is to stay the hell out of it’s way, but the Abrams question might simply be due to fear of the technology getting into the “wrong hands.” When I was a USMC F4 Phantom II mechanic in Japan in 1971 (I had two jobs in the USMC, Air Wing and Infantry) it was very safe duty because the U.S. Navy prohibited our F4-Js from being used in VietNam because they were too new and too technologically advanced. Perhaps it’s the same thought for the M1A1s or what ever they have. And yes, I have no idea about the configurations of the ones they “gave” to Iraq or Afghanistan. I’m pretty sure that we even “de-tech” platforms that we sell to our staunchest Alliies.

[JonS]

ISTR that export versions even have lower spec armor (fewer layers, different alloys, missing composites, etc), in addition to 'consumer grade' electronics.

[Vet 0369]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't think this one has been posted yet.  Another Pointer Of Doom video, this time with suicide drones:

Seems the Russians have either too little infantry in one spot or too much.

Steve

How does one say “Spread out, one grenade can get you all” In Russian?

[JonS]

держись рядом, так что одна граната может убить вас всех

derzhis' ryadom, tak chto odna granata mozhet ubit' vas vsekh

 

[Vet 0369]

5 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Yeah, I think so too. We have already seen their Bradleys on trains in Poland.

But there is some "other" activity going on in Germany:

 

 

I will always remember R. Lee Ermy’s term for the M1 Abrams “A can opener with an attitude!”

Rest in peace Gunny!

[sburke]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

No sourcing of clip, no evidence of meeting exists, just this video clip, certainly, hes got a huge amount of speeches to get clips and audio from, i know its not to be trusted unless verified. 

considering the only trip he has made out of country was to speak to a joint session of congress, i doubt he made the trip for some corporate folks.  If anything, he'd tell them to come to Kiev.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Lethaface said:

As the video was from NL,

As the guys in the video were swearing in a way only the Dutch could do, of course it was

Steve

[chuckdyke]

The town of 'Vlissingen' is known as Flushing in England. I didn't notice any swearing.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, JonS said:

So, Bakhmut is irrelevant, and it doesnt really matter who holds the rubble, but what's the option? If Russia wants to advance there, and it appears they do, then presumably Ukraine wants to block them? Maybe not literally at Bakhmut, but if not there, then where? Ivanivske? Bohdanivka? Kalinina? Since Russia has the initiative there, Ukraine is effectively forced into continuing the fight there - or somewhere nearby.

The name of the place doesnt matter. What's going on there does.

Yes, I agree this is a very tough spot for Ukraine to be in, especially because Russia doesn't care about losses while Ukraine very much does.  It is possible that this is the best Ukraine can do with the situation as it is instead of how they would like it to be.  But perhaps not.

Russia is able to focus on Bakhmut area in part because at the moment Ukraine is only actively fighting in one other spot, which is the small sector of front between Kreminna and Svatove.  And even then it's not clear how much Ukraine is investing there.  This means that part of the reason Russia can do the meat grinder in Bakhmut is because it isn't being obligated to do something else.

The apparent US position in the CNN article is that Ukraine should be hitting Russia somewhere else in order to disrupt its ability to focus on Bakhmut.  Similar to how Ukraine obligated Russia to draw forces away from Luhansk to Kherson, then from Kherson back to Luhansk.  Brilliant stuff.

I have faith that Ukraine is making the right decisions here, but the Ukrainian body count at Bakhmut is terribly high in exchange for a bunch of dead untrained prisoners.  I am hoping they are able to do something sooner rather than later to shift the strategic initiative decidedly back to Ukraine's favor.

What follows is only me half kidding:

Russians have not shown particular brilliance in this war (understatement, ha-ha) and they are desperate for signs of progress.  REALLY desperate.  Why not let the Russians take Bakhmut and push westward from there.  I think Prizgozhin is dumb enough to do it recklessly, especially now that he's on the outs with Putin.  Then when it's clear they are over extended, smash into the flanks with coordinated force, pinch off whatever moved west, and destroy everything leaving the sector devoid of significant forces.

Yeah, yeah, yeah... risky and probably a lot of reasons why Ukraine couldn't pull this sort of thing off, but this is the sort of thinking that gives Ukraine options other than bleeding at a point of Russia's choosing.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

The town of 'Vlissingen' is known as Flushing in England. I didn't notice any swearing.

Well, most of the swear words I heard were in English with a distinct Dutch accent.  Which, as a native English potty mouth myself, I found rather amusing.

Steve

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The apparent US position in the CNN article is that Ukraine should be hitting Russia somewhere else in order to disrupt its ability to focus on Bakhmut.  Similar to how Ukraine obligated Russia to draw forces away from Luhansk to Kherson, then from Kherson back to Luhansk.  Brilliant stuff.

On UKR's lack of punching elsewhere, I am still thinking it's the dang mud?  Option B is that UKR is actually weaker than we think.  Option C is that UKR is waiting for RU to further degrade its artillery shell stockpiles?  I dunno.  I still think it's probably the mud.

[chuckdyke]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, most of the swear words I heard were in English with a distinct Dutch accent.  Which, as a native English potty mouth myself, I found rather amusing.

Steve

The F word is the first word one picks up abroad. The related word in Dutch is not a swear word at all. Like Anthony Fokker means actually  Anthony the Breeder ( Like a dog breeder.)

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

The F word is the first word one picks up abroad.

It's a good word, short and to the point with a wonderful second syllable for emphasis.  It can hardly be blamed for its popularity.

Steve

[cesmonkey]

Interesting update from this retired U.S. tanker general on the supply of Abrams tanks:
 

 

[Battlefront.com]

From ISW's Jan 24th report:

Quote

Russian sources widely claimed that Russian forces launched an offensive around Vuhledar (28km southwest of Donetsk City) on January 24. The claim was likely meant to generate positive narratives to distract from the lack of progress in Bakhmut. Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet broke through Ukrainian defenses in the Vuhledar area and advanced north of Pavlivka (32km southwest of Avdiivka) and west of Mykilske (27km southwest of Avdiivka).[43] Many Russian milbloggers amplified Vostok Battalion Commander Alexander Khodakovsky’s claim that the 155^th Naval Infantry Brigade took part in the operations, but Khodakovsky edited his initial post, removing references to specific Russian units.[44] DNR First Deputy Information Officer Danil Bezsonov claimed that the DNR "Kaskad" battalion also participated in offensive operations in the Vuhledar area.[45] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are continuing offensive operations towards Vuhledar and also near Velyka Novosilka (55km southwest of Donetsk City).[46] 

Seems very good news for Russians, except for this:

Quote

 ISW has not observed any footage indicating that Russian forces have launched a localized offensive in the Vuhledar area as of January 25. Russian sources likely intend to repeat a similar ongoing effort in Zaporizhia Oblast, where Russian sources have circulated claims of localized Russian advances without any confirmation to distract from the fact that Russian forces have not made any operationally significant gains around Bakhmut.[47] 

This is similar to what we saw back in the summer, in particular, when Russia's offensive operations were effectively ended through a combination of exhaustion and Ukrainian resistance.  All kinds of platoon and smaller attacks were conducted all over the place and the mil bloggers blew them all out of proportion day after day after day.

Not to say that this or that local attack isn't gaining this or that bit of terrain here and there, just that it's not meaningful in the way Russia wants it to be.

Steve