How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

26 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Is real?  as in not some older video?  Do you think it's recent?  

I can´t tell. Those are A6 and it is in Germany. But of course could be a random unit going to one the battleranges. I fetched it from twitter, so it must be true, innit?

Edit: Did some searching around. Last year in Thuringia. However it is the spirit that counts...

Quote

 

"Richtig ist: Es handelt sich hierbei um Kampfpanzer des thüringischen Panzerbataillon 393 aus Bad Frankenhausen. Die Panzer hatten planmäßig an der großen Truppenübung "Wettiner Schwert" im Gefechtsübungszentrum in der Altmark (Sachsen-Anhalt) teilgenommen und kehren nun in ihre Heimatkaserne zurück."

"It is correct: These are battle tanks from the Thuringian tank battalion 393 from Bad Frankenhausen. The tanks had taken part in the large military exercise "Wettiner Sword" in the combat training center in the Altmark (Saxony-Anhalt) and are now returning to their home barracks."

 

Panzervideo sorgt für Aufsehen - LandesWelle Thüringen

Edited January 24, 2023 by DesertFox

[Haiduk]

16 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

The result of the raid

Version of UKR SOF: despite river bank mining, UKR group successfuly crossed the river and destroyed command center (this was on territory or "Fishers hamlet" lodge in Dnipriany village near Nova Kakhovka), 12 Russian soldiers were killed, one captured, BTR-82A was destroyed. Russians thought, this was start of main forces crossing, so raised reserves, including aviation. The group spotted number of Russian reserves, which were raised and has withdrawn

Version of Russian milbloggers: UKR company, reinforced with heavy armor, landed on the left bamk near Nova Kakhovka, but was completely wiped out. Three of ten BMPs were destroyed. UKR artillry alsmost didn't support their troops, so they hadn't chances to survive %)

Edited January 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[Der Zeitgeist]

2 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Sad to see war taking such a toll on him. And this speech is... Sad. 

It will get even worse. The next few months will be hell for Ukraine. Russia can't wait, they'll have to throw everything in before any of the new western stuff becomes operational. 

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

It will get even worse. The next few months will be hell for Ukraine. Russia can't wait, they'll have to throw everything in before any of the new western stuff becomes operational. 

In Ukraine new mass mobilization wave has started since the end of December. Zelenskiy only yesterday made a statement he gave order to prepare reserve of servicemen. Some high-ranked military chiefs told new brigades will be established. Though one of these generals told these brigades will receive new westren weapon. If this not a "smoke screen" I don't understanf this. We already had some dissatified voices of veterans, about why Bradleys will get 47th assault brigade, which even didn't smell gunpowder   

Edited January 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

In Ukraine new mass mobilization wave has started since the end of December. Zelenskiy only yesterday made a statement he gave order to prepare reserve of servicemen. Some high-ranked military chiefs told new brigades will be established. Though one of these generals told these brigades will receive new westren weapon. If this not a "smoke screen" I don't understanf this. We already had some dissatified voices of veterans, about why Bradleys will get 47th assault brigade, which even didn't smell gunpowder   

I think the rate at which the western equipment will be  delivered will be really crucial. Today is a great day, no doubt - but 150 tanks, even with all the other equipment pledged at latest Ramstein is not enough to just win the war. This will have to be a recurring event to achieve the critical mass. Until it is done, I guess the plan might be to hold tight, defend and kill as many russians as possible without engaging the "New Army". 
Perhaps the aircraft, and/ or new artillery brigaded will enter the fray sooner to provide more firepower and not let the RU mass advance. Keep bleeding them out now, during winter and spring mud when attacking is hard anyway. Come next summer, there might again come moment for the offensive. That's how I see the events will unfold anyway

[Beleg85]

5 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Sad to see war taking such a toll on him. And this speech is... Sad. 

Yeah, Michael Tracey seen better days for sure...

[panzermartin]

Just now, Beleg85 said:

Yeah, Michael Tracey seen better days for sure...

Don't know him. I meant Zelensky 

[Fernando]

1 hour ago, womble said:

Well, Morocco has historical beef with Spain, and, unfortunately, the US sold 'em a passel of Abrams, so the Spaniards probably have as legitimate a need for their currrent-gen MBTs as Greece does.

That's correct. However some older Leopard 2A4 could be sent to Ukraine.

Spain has 237 Leopard 2E (the Spanish version of the Leopard 2A6) and 108 Leopard 2A4. The Leopard 2A4 were just an stopgap measure until the better Leopard 2E was available. The Leopard 2A4 were were rented in 1998 and Spain finally bought them in 2005.

OTOH Leopard 2E production started in Spain (about 60% is made or mounted in Spain) in 2003 and ended in 2008. When enough Leopard 2E were available for armor units, the Leopard 2A4 were sent to cavalry units, then the rest (about 50) were replaced and sent to storage. Some has been in storage since 2012.

I don't expect Leopard 2E be sent to Ukraine, but some Leopard 2A4 could. If the Spanish government finally sent Leopard 2E, it would be a political decision overruling military necessities, which is not rare in Spanish politics.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Fernando

[Beleg85]

Just now, panzermartin said:

Don't know him. I meant Zelensky 

 

Terminator near Kreminna. Heavy fights are reported there.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Russians are just at the start of Kubler-Ross cycle. And Soloviev, Skabaieva and other propagandists already used their best ammunition. We had nukes on Berlin, satanists in Salem, now topic of eugenic breedings and transhumanism is at work. Total craziness.

I think they subconciously know they are f...d.

That reminds me, I remember you were interested in examples of Russian propaganda relating to Satanism. Here is some new material from Solovyow himself.

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Beleg85]

19 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

That reminds me, I remember you were interested in examples of Russian propaganda relating to Satanism. Here is some new material from Solovyew himself.

Yup. Julie Davies only shows best 2-3 mins snippets, but they have entire segments dedicated  to various issues, with serious local experts, like religious ones, antropologists, sociologists discussing how to "desecularize" the West. It is like from niche Russian dystopian sci-fi literature from 90'ties, except real. They gone full medieval within a year, desperatelly trying to find any justification for this war that would keep track within population. Russia now is (formally at least) fully rejecting modernity in all its manifestation, except weapons of course. Total circus.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Russia now is (formally at least) fully rejecting modernity in all its manifestation, except weapons of course.

And cellphones!  Much easier to coordinate coke and hookers with modern communications.  Sending Sergei out on horseback to come back with a couple of grams of blow and a blond would just take too long.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Apparently it is now (almost) official... the US is sending Abrams.  This was posted to NY Times a few minutes ago.  It offers more details than the previous post about Biden considering the action:

Quote

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration plans to send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, U.S. officials said on Tuesday, in what would be a major step in arming Kyiv in its efforts to seize back its territory from Russia.

The White House is expected to announce a decision as early as Wednesday, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions. One official said the number of Abrams tanks could be between 30 and 50.

The plan to send the Abrams tanks comes after a testy confrontation last week during a NATO defense chiefs meeting over the refusal by Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, to send the Leopards, which many military experts believe could be a decisive weapon in Ukrainian hands.

German officials privately have insisted that they would only send the tanks, among the most advanced in the world, if the United States agreed to send its own M1 Abrams tanks. Publicly, American and German officials have denied that the two issues were linked.

Anticipation for a German announcement was high, as various German news outlets reported that Mr. Scholz had already decided to send the tanks. Attention was focused on the chancellor’s expected address to Parliament on Wednesday.

Many European countries use German-built Leopards. On Monday, Poland’s defense minister said his country had formally requested Germany’s permission to send Ukraine Leopard tanks from its own stocks, and other countries have indicated they would do the same if Germany agreed.

In Kyiv on Tuesday, Finland’s president, Sauli Niinisto, told reporters at a news conference that he had discussed the supply of Western tanks to Ukraine with President Zelensky, saying the country was considering various options for its participation.

Image

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz next to a Leopard 2 battle tank in Ostenholz, Germany, in October last year.Credit...David Hecker/Getty Images

Ukraine’s Western allies have provided increasingly sophisticated arms to help Kyiv defend against Russia’s invasion, but they have been reticent to send heavy offensive weapons for fear of provoking Moscow.

Ukraine has been begging for heavily armored Western tanks for months, with officials maintaining that the Soviet style tanks which Ukraine has now are not enough to help Kyiv take back its territory.

 

[Battlefront.com]

Long article from CNN about the US advising Ukraine to give up Bakhmut and focus on bigger actions.  This gets back to something I said pages ago which was I hope Ukraine is holding Bakhmut only to keep Russia distracted, not the other way around.  This could be a smokescreen for bigger things already in motion, or it could be that Ukraine has really been distracted by Russia's offensive there.  Either way, there does seem to be a legitimate message from the West which boils down to "we're giving you lots of expensive things with a wide array of capabilities.  Don't just use them for trench warfare".

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/politics/ukraine-shift-tactics-bakhmut/index.html

[DesertFox]

LOL! NATO mosquito training centre...

 

 

[JonS]

So, Bakhmut is irrelevant, and it doesnt really matter who holds the rubble, but what's the option? If Russia wants to advance there, and it appears they do, then presumably Ukraine wants to block them? Maybe not literally at Bakhmut, but if not there, then where? Ivanivske? Bohdanivka? Kalinina? Since Russia has the initiative there, Ukraine is effectively forced into continuing the fight there - or somewhere nearby.

The name of the place doesnt matter. What's going on there does.

[DesertFox]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 One official said the number of Abrams tanks could be between 30 and 50.

I guess for the logistic tail, a Btl. would make the most sense. Should be about 44 tanks. Add 3 Btl of Bradleys and hey presto let the Brigade do some nightfighting action with their thermals.

[kevinkin]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

without engaging the "New Army". 

I mentioned this as one option since traditionally you would wait to develop that critical mass and then pick where best to strike and hold regained ground. That may not always be true when fighting in close terrain, but the tank country in Ukraine would seem to lend itself for the traditional approach. But again, outside considerations could come into play. For example, a moderate RA breakthrough might tempt the use of the new equipment in smallish packets to seal off the front. RA leadership is going to have to show a lot of though love with their junior front line troops who might begin to cry for NATOs mobile firepower as it's delivered. I think the last thing the UA wants is to have this hard won equipment picked off piecemeal. Not good militarily or for PR. 

[danfrodo]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Long article from CNN about the US advising Ukraine to give up Bakhmut and focus on bigger actions.  This gets back to something I said pages ago which was I hope Ukraine is holding Bakhmut only to keep Russia distracted, not the other way around.  This could be a smokescreen for bigger things already in motion, or it could be that Ukraine has really been distracted by Russia's offensive there.  Either way, there does seem to be a legitimate message from the West which boils down to "we're giving you lots of expensive things with a wide array of capabilities.  Don't just use them for trench warfare".

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/politics/ukraine-shift-tactics-bakhmut/index.html

I can picture an interesting debate on this.  One side says why fight bloody attritional battle here?  Other side says if we retreat we'll just be fighting same bloody attritional battle at the next town and there's too much mud for any major offensive right now and we're killing tons of RU guys.

[Bil Hardenberger]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Long article from CNN about the US advising Ukraine to give up Bakhmut and focus on bigger actions.  This gets back to something I said pages ago which was I hope Ukraine is holding Bakhmut only to keep Russia distracted, not the other way around.  This could be a smokescreen for bigger things already in motion, or it could be that Ukraine has really been distracted by Russia's offensive there.  Either way, there does seem to be a legitimate message from the West which boils down to "we're giving you lots of expensive things with a wide array of capabilities.  Don't just use them for trench warfare".

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/politics/ukraine-shift-tactics-bakhmut/index.html

Regarding the above, I agree with JonS's comments below...

3 minutes ago, JonS said:

So, Bakhmut is irrelevant, and it doesnt really matter who holds the rubble, but what's the option? If Russia wants to advance there, and it appears they do, then presumably Ukraine wants to block them? Maybe not literally at Bakhmut, but if not there, then where? Ivanivske? Bohdanivka? Kalinina? Since Russia has the initiative there, Ukraine is effectively forced into continuing the fight there - or somewhere nearby.

The name of the place doesnt matter. What's going on there does.

These actions are too small and localized to really have a lasting impact on this war. I expect these types of actions to continue until the ground conditions and the new Brigades are both ready... in the meantime it makes sense for the Ukrainians to block, delay, and cause as many Russian casualties that they can... I only hope they are able to rotate units as this type of warfare has to be a dreary and thankless job.

[Huba]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Long article from CNN about the US advising Ukraine to give up Bakhmut and focus on bigger actions.  This gets back to something I said pages ago which was I hope Ukraine is holding Bakhmut only to keep Russia distracted, not the other way around.  This could be a smokescreen for bigger things already in motion, or it could be that Ukraine has really been distracted by Russia's offensive there.  Either way, there does seem to be a legitimate message from the West which boils down to "we're giving you lots of expensive things with a wide array of capabilities.  Don't just use them for trench warfare".

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/politics/ukraine-shift-tactics-bakhmut/index.html

Can't upvote it unfortunately, this is definitely worth a read. Some major actions might indeed be imminent, but a scent of maskirovka in this article is definitely discernible.

Anyway, time to sleep, but let me end the day with a LOTR reference:

Edited January 24, 2023 by Huba

[DesertFox]

Nice gift from Sweden to Zelenskys 45th birthday...

 

 

[Lethaface]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The question is if the vehicles from the unit being rotated out will stay in Poland.  Seems like it would be a smart thing to do even if all they do is sit around as a ready reserve in case hostilities escalate.

Steve

As the video was from NL, this was announced not long ago: 1275 vehicles from a US army unit docking in Vlissingen and from there moving to Poland and Litouwen mostly via rail. Operation will take place until February, indeed specifies it's the rotation of 1st cav although it doesn't specify whether there's also vehicles shipped away again / no specifics about the brigade being rotated out.

https://www.defensie.nl/actueel/nieuws/2023/01/09/amerikaanse-landmachteenheid-met-zwaar-materieel-door-nederland

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, LukeFF said:

Somewhere Eisenhower is spinning in his grave right now. 

Do we have a source for this speech other than this idiot? he spent days arguing with ppl over the definition of a tank and insisting he was correct. If he told me the sky was blue, I would triple check him. 

 

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by FancyCat

[Beleg85]

39 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And cellphones!  Much easier to coordinate coke and hookers with modern communications.  Sending Sergei out on horseback to come back with a couple of grams of blow and a blond would just take too long.

Steve

Of course, like in  ISIS case reality is slightly different than theory. Jihadists could order entire trucks of favourite Mars candybars straight from Europe to feed their foreign fighters, Russians do sooo much more. Ability to somehow absorb all paradoxes and logical incosistencies into one ideological stance was always distinguishing feature of Russian official psyche. Hundreds years of training.