How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

20 minutes ago, dan/california said:

That is why Putin created both the Rosgvardviya, and the Federal Protection Service whose sole job is guarding him. If you need a fourth competing armed force your dictatorship isn't running very well.

 

On the contrary - every single Dictatorship that's ever been has had multiple armed forces within it, all competing for that greenback milk from the Dear Leader's teat.

The competing armed camps is a function not a flaw of every autocracy, as the point of a Dictatorship is to keep the Dictator in furs  and have everyone else watching each other,  while he remains "above the fray". 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Kinophile

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

On the contrary - every single Dictatorship that's ever been has had multiple armed forces within it, all competing for that greenback milk from the Dear Leader's teat.

The competing armed camps is a function not a flaw of every autocracy, as the point of a Dictatorship is to keep the Dictator in furs  and have everyone else watching each other,  while he remains "above the fray". 

exactamundo, as they say in Italian.  Or pig latin.  Or whatever.  Keep the underlings all vying w each other and they aren't working together to kill you.  They all have spies in each others' organizations watching for something to bring the others down -- like treason.

[TheVulture]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

On the contrary - every single Dictatorship that's ever been has had multiple armed forces within it, all competing for that greenback milk from the Dear Leader's teat.

The competing armed camps is a function not a flaw of every autocracy, as the point of a Dictatorship is to keep the Dictator in furs  and have everyone else watching each other,  while he remains "above the fray". 

The last Perun video was on exactly this. Dictators need to have multiple duplicate military groups in competition with each other to prevent any one group being in a position to overthrow the boss. And the leaders on these duplicate groups are chosen more for their loyalty than their ability. The groups then inevitably compete with each other for the same resources, trying to increase their own personal empires at the expense of the competition. 

[Zeleban]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks again for your translations.  You can guess I have it all saved on my harddrive for various future needs

Steve

Oh that's exactly what I was hoping for when I posted this.

[Huba]

There's Pistorius press confrence going:

- look how much we delivered, more than anyone except US, please like us!
- we allow you all to train Ukrainians already
- still no idea how many of DE tanks are operational, but counting is proceeding
- we are not isolated! Media, please don't say there's disunity 
It clearly look like the DE decision will be made soon and be positive, but a bit more theater has to happen before.

 

Meanwhile at Reinmetall:

Also, Poland is going to fill the official request to send the Leo2 today. And according to ABC news (so take with a grain of salt), there's already 100 pledged by different countries:

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Huba

[Zeleban]

32 minutes ago, Huba said:

Also, Poland is going to fill the official request to send the Leo2 today. And according to ABC news (so take with a grain of salt), there's already 100 pledged by different countries:

All labor is in vain. There will be new ridiculous excuses not to give permission for the supply of tanks to Ukraine

[Zeleban]

 

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Zeleban said:

All labor is in vain. There will be new ridiculous excuses not to give permission for the supply of tanks to Ukraine

I'm rather optimistic, though it will take some more time for the decisions to happen. I'd say it will be at the next Ramstein at the latest - but might be quite sooner with all the grilling that is going on. And the training has already started, that's the most important part. You guys can start preparing these ERA bricks to hang on your new vehicles

[Zeleban]

Drones finish off with F-1 grenades the attacking Russian motorized infantry that survived after the artillery shelling (second half of the video)

[Zeleban]

The anti-personnel mine PFM-1 "petal" is a very unpleasant thing; it does not give fragments, its charge is very weak. But it is enough to seriously injure a person's leg.

[Zeleban]

That's why Ukrainian FPV loitering munitions are so effective against armored vehicles

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[Zeleban]

7 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

 

 

I think another Scholz statement will soon appear that Germany allows Leopards to be prepared for shipment to Ukraine, but does not allow them to be sent

[Butschi]

11 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Second, “steep taxes on German cars” is known as increasing the Tariffs on a product if it is determined that the target Country is”dumping” products at artificially low prices to get a larger share of the market. This is common practice in the world markets, and have nothing to do with the Nord2 question.

German car manufacturers aren't known for selling their cars too cheap, though. On the contrary. Trump's strategy to strengthen US industry hadn't really worked that well and he wanted to show off what a great deal maker he is. Only EU didn't want to make unfavorable deals and so Trump tried blackmailing us by targeting EU key industries.

Coming back to why I actually wrote this. Things like these tariffs were seen in conjunction with Trumps sanctions against Nord Stream 2 which then, consequently, weren't seen as trying to protect European energy security but rather as another attempt at blackmailing.

That's why, when the Biden administration wanted cancelling NS2 as part of possible sanctions, this was met with a great deal of suspicion.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Butschi

[Huba]

All right then, if that's settled, we can get back to arguing which tanks are to be sent and how many  So here are my guesses:

- Chally2 seems to be happening already, but a company is quite pointless. Either the numbers have to be increased so that a full battalion/ mech brigade can be equipped with it, or it will be used in some kinda of a ring exchange scheme with one of the smaller Leo2 operators.
- Leclerc and Ariete were not pledged at the moment, and seem quite unlikely. If FR and IT decide to jump on the tank bandwagon, the same principle as with Challenger applies.
- There seems to be around 100 Leo2 in the pool already, with perhaps at least 30 more available from DE. This should be enough for an armored brigade and then some, depending on how big the battalions are (31 or 44 vehicles). In the long term at least double that could probably be scrapped up when everyone starts fixing the available vehicles
- There's A LOT of Leo1 around too - if Greeks agree to participate, there can be a few hundred available. UA already have a lot of experience servicing the chassis/ drivetrain aspect of them, so that's a big plus.
- I guess Polish PT-91 are still on the table, perhaps in the second part of the year
- And this leaves the question of US participation. I don't buy the argument that M1 is not possible due to various technical reasons. It weighs the same as Leo2, the engine is harder to fix but reportedly more reliable, there are ways around that; fuel doesn't seem to be a problem, it's not like UA is having a shortage or there are 200km fuel runs to be made. We already heard the M1s are available for a swap exchange scheme and that is surely going to happen in my opinion.
 

[DesertFox]

Pistorius desperately tries to spin things...

 

 

[Zeleban]

As you can see in the video, in ground fire mode, Shilka can only use the two lower barrels. Shooting from the upper pair of barrels is blocked.  A special sight reticle with a distance scale designed for shooting at ground targets is zeroed only for the lower pair of barrels. The gunner can switch sight scales (there are 5 of them) for shooting at ground or air targets

(Although if you look closely, only one of the upper barrels is firing. At the same time, the gunner does not use an optical sight, but leaning halfway out of the tower, he corrects firing at the tracers of shots. It looks like he is firing in air-to-air mode, since the rest of the barrels are faulty or not loaded with projectiles)

Edited January 24, 2023 by Zeleban

[TheVulture]

24 minutes ago, Huba said:

- Chally2 seems to be happening already, but a company is quite pointless. Either the numbers have to be increased so that a full battalion/ mech brigade can be equipped with it, or it will be used in some kinda of a ring exchange scheme with one of the smaller Leo2 operators.

10 tanks, or whatever it was, is pretty pointless, and unlike with the Leo2, it's not like there are half a dozen countries that can also chip in a small number, making a battaltion's worth in total.

But politically it does have a use - mostly in breaking the taboo on providing modern western MBTs to Ukraine. It is militarily small enough to not provoke a meaningful reaction as a 'trial balloon', and once everyone (including Russia) is used to the idea, slowly ramping up the number of Leos being discussed is less of an issue.

No idea how much that was planned, versus the UK just being a bit half-assed with 'we can only spare this many' (rather than the more realistic: "this is the war they are designed to fight, so we can either win it now or fight it again later and closer to home").

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://warontherocks.com/2023/01/manpower-materiel-and-the-coming-decisive-phase-in-ukraine/

In his latest discussion with Ryan on the war in Ukraine, Mike Kofman explains why the coming spring and summer will be strategically decisive. He also offers his analysis on the Russian command reshuffle, new Western kit, and the grinding battle for Bakhmut.

Bulletpoints:

1. Bakhmut, on the ground Russians have made progress. Difficult grinding fight. Odds about 50/50 that Russia takes Bakhmut in the coming weeks, BUT it doesn't matter which way it ends. What will matter are the casualties on both sides. We need to consider the risk UKR is losing higher quality troops while RUS is mostly using expendable troops.
2. Fighting in Bakhmut might indeed be the smartest thing to do for the Ukrainians. Is there a spot that is more advantageous? There is criticism of UKR accepting this grinding fight,  but Ukraine might not be able choose a better fight at the moment.
3. It is an important open question how much RUS is experiencing or going to experience shell hunger and its causes. We know the RUS shell usage has gone down but the reasons are unclear (smaller need now?, lack of supply lines?, lack of stockpiles? ...). We will know more when the fighting again widens and intensifies.
4. RUS primary goals remain in taking the Dombas
5. On the tank debate: The classifications of weapons (is it a tank or not or offensive weapon or not) depends on the needs of the policy. "It is what you make of it" It is a offensive weapon if the policies require it to be and it is not if the it needs to be policy constrained.
6. About the Challenger 2s actually the AS90 is way more important. Western country giving significant percentage if its modern system.
7. Heading to 2023 there is a quest to make Ukraine succeed in offensive operations under these new constraints. Constraints: RUS has the manpower advantage and next set of fights are going to be more difficult.
   1. Increase the qualitative advantage of Ukraine (better equipment and equipment for new formations)
   2. Equipment and manpower grind has to be avoided. RUS could sustain this for some time
   3. Develop and increase the UKR precision strike abilities. Shift
   4. Ukraine has mostly fought this as an artillery war. This is a costly and attrition approach as seen in Kherson. West is unlikely to be able to supply UKR with enough of overmatch of a fires advantage to win in this way. Even at this rate the ammunition and barrel consumption is hard to sustain.
   5. Combined arms training. The fix for the point above is to give UKR the skill and equipment to do mobile warfare. This is clearly now being pursued.
8. Spring and summer look to become decisive. Next offensive UKR has a good opportunity to show that it can still advance under these new conditions. There will be lots of people eager to call stalemate
   1. Unlike in Kherson&Harkiv now in the next offensive UKR has a very real risk of RUS counter offensive if they fail or fall short. RUS offensive capacity is constrained but now there is a real risk. Lets be frank the Kherson offensive didn't start off well, this time around there will be risks if that happens.
9. It is not clear what is happening with the forces. Have UKR managed to set aside enough units for offensive operations? What is going on with the RUS mobilization? Very little information on the Russian new forces, most like a lot of them are for rotational proposes. 
10. This war going nuclear is matter of two points:
    1. Cascading failure and collapse of the Russian force and the campaign. Koffman sees this as low probability event. 
    2. what Putin decides to do in the above situation. This probability is pretty hard to judge.
11. talk about internal struggle between the RUS war leadership
12. RUS
    1. In Bakhmut interesting to see the changed tactics of no armor, only infantry and artillery. Also the artillery ammo is being rationed or having shortages. They are clearly preserving their mech forces. 
    2. RUS is likely not going to announce 500k man mobilization . It never ended, it is going to keep happening in the background. Also there is no way of sustaining such force increase.
    3. The war aims are going to stay inside Donbass. So forget about these fanciful plans being talked about in the press.

[Bulletpoint]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

The anti-personnel mine PFM-1 "petal" is a very unpleasant thing; it does not give fragments, its charge is very weak. But it is enough to seriously injure a person's leg.

Looks like a very weak blast - he steps on it with his left foot, but it seems still intact as he rolls around. Could have lost his toes and broken maybe.

Since Ukraine is party to the land mine convention, I assume this mine was deployed by Russia, which makes it very fitting that a Russian would also step on it.

[Zeleban]

21 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Looks like a very weak blast - he steps on it with his left foot, but it seems still intact as he rolls around. Could have lost his toes and broken maybe.

Since Ukraine is party to the land mine convention, I assume this mine was deployed by Russia, which makes it very fitting that a Russian would also step on it.

 

Usually this type of mine causes a fracture of the bones of the foot (provided that the person who stepped on was wearing army shoes with a strong sole)

[Der Zeitgeist]

21 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Since Ukraine is party to the land mine convention, I assume this mine was deployed by Russia, which makes it very fitting that a Russian would also step on it.

Wait, are you claiming Ukraine doesn't use anti-personnel mines in the war?

[DesertFox]

3 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Wait, are you claiming Ukraine doesn't use anti-personnel mines in the war?

Background Briefing on Landmine Use in Ukraine | Human Rights Watch (hrw.org)

[Kraft]

55 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Looks like a very weak blast - he steps on it with his left foot, but it seems still intact as he rolls around. Could have lost his toes and broken maybe.

Probably PFM-1 mine with 40g of explosive, they are specifically designed to maim and cause wounded, not kill.

Definetly enough power to make him reconsider his life decisions. And if he is lucky, he gets to tell his grandchildren how he lost all his toes.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Kraft

[Huba]

Too lazy to dig up the original source, but reportedly according to UA Air Force spokesman Yuri Ignat, there's already a decision to supply UA with western aircraft and arrangements regarding training are being made:

Edit: Kherson Cat found the source:

Edited January 24, 2023 by Huba