How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

4 hours ago, kevinkin said:

WSJ Headline today : Ukraine War Lands Europe’s Leaders in a Battle of Wills

I think it's more like "battle of lack of wills"

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

There's so much we don't see going on behind the scenes.  I think the US, UK, and some other countries learned a lot about Germany's reluctance of putting European and global interests ahead of its own economic self interests.  During the buildup to the war it is pretty clear that the US, in particular, used this knowledge to deliberately shape policies that Germany would find difficult to "squirm out of" once the shooting started.  It was designed in such a way as to remove debate from taking action, something that Germany has traditionally used to undermine meaningful actions which it views as harmful to its own economic interests.  Brilliant diplomacy.

There were numerous examples of this (i.e. committing to a pipeline measures if Russia invaded) where in retrospect the US ability to actually see what was happening versus the German desire to avoid seeing it could not have been more stark. It *possible* that part of Scholz's problem now is that the German gov't doesn't trust its own analysis. 

[kevinkin]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/22/vladimir-putin-ukraine-west-russia-president

More endgame yuck:

Even if Ukraine chases every last Russian soldier from its land, Russia’s aggression will not end. Russia will continue to make claims to Ukraine’s territory, and will back them up with threats, intermittent missile launches and border skirmishes. There is no such thing as a decisive victory for the defender. A decisive victory implies the destruction of the attacker, lest it come back after a brief reprieve. Destroying Russia’s will or long-term capacity to take its land is something that, for Ukraine, is not an option. With an aggressor impervious to international or domestic pressure, tenuous peace, backed by a state-of-the-art anti-missile defence system and a world-class military on standby, may just be the best outcome Ukraine can hope to achieve.

Ukraine knows this, even though its western supporters are still hoping for a good-faith negotiated settlement. What Ukraine needs is to prepare for the long haul, strengthen its relationships with additional potential allies, and further develop its own defence industry. The only way Ukraine can achieve lasting peace is by stockpiling the biggest guns it can find.

Writer never really get into the inner circle thing. 

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/22/vladimir-putin-ukraine-west-russia-president

More endgame yuck:

Even if Ukraine chases every last Russian soldier from its land, Russia’s aggression will not end. Russia will continue to make claims to Ukraine’s territory, and will back them up with threats, intermittent missile launches and border skirmishes. There is no such thing as a decisive victory for the defender. A decisive victory implies the destruction of the attacker, lest it come back after a brief reprieve. Destroying Russia’s will or long-term capacity to take its land is something that, for Ukraine, is not an option. With an aggressor impervious to international or domestic pressure, tenuous peace, backed by a state-of-the-art anti-missile defence system and a world-class military on standby, may just be the best outcome Ukraine can hope to achieve.

Ukraine knows this, even though its western supporters are still hoping for a good-faith negotiated settlement. What Ukraine needs is to prepare for the long haul, strengthen its relationships with additional potential allies, and further develop its own defence industry. The only way Ukraine can achieve lasting peace is by stockpiling the biggest guns it can find.

Writer never really get into the inner circle thing. 

Sure, that's one possible outcome, and it's on the negative side of outcomes.  There's also the outcome where RU leaders, whoever that is, decide that continuing to attack UKR et al out of spite is self defeating and they decide they want the sanctions to end.  Saying "what will happen" is just a guessing game at this point.  So the path forward is for UKR to get as much of its territory back as possible.  Meanwhile, the world can let RU know that the sanctions will continue until RU decides to show a long period of not being a terrorist state.

[Lethaface]

On 1/21/2023 at 3:49 PM, Huba said:

German-bashing mode on (well, not really, but there are few people in particular who deserve a good smacking): 

 

That's unfortunately how many ministries are often run. I like to hyperbole and it's not like there's nothing at all getting done in any ministry (although it often feels that way). But preventing the political representatives from getting into uncomfortable situations in the parliament/press/wherever and preventing them having to do things which later can be harmful (risk management), simply has the highest priority for the people working directly for those representatives. Which are usually the highest ranking officials working for the ministry. And the minister covers for the prime-minister/chancellor. 
That's how the game works, unfortunately.
Although dire times have been a catalyst for more business-minded governance in the past. Perhaps it will also in our times.
PS yes catching the posts up lol, I had weekend.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Lethaface

[Harmon Rabb]

For those who have the stomach to listen to these psychos for thirteen minutes, here is a recent example of how the "special military operation" is being discussed on Russian television these days.

[FancyCat]

3 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

For those who have the stomach to listen to these psychos for thirteen minutes, here is a recent example of how the "special military operation" is being discussed on Russian television these days.

Just a reminder, Russian tv, like all tv, is full of hyperbole, lack of reality, and absurdities. Useful in some respects but also designed to muddy the water, act the extremist, etc.

[Der Zeitgeist]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, I completelly lost the track what is happening. Does our German friends here can tell more? Does Baerbock statements represent official stance or is part of some inside quarrels at the top?

Nobody knows what the official government stance is right now or if there even is an official government position. I watched the Bundespressekonferenz today and it was completely ridiculous. 

3 hours ago, Kraft said:

I'd pay good money just to get a hint as to why the SPD/Scholz behaves like this, at the expense of pretty much everyone except Russia.

My current theory is that it's mostly domestic intra-SPD pressures on Scholz. 

Scholz himself doesn't seem to have any problem with taking the international criticism and is happy to play the official European Anti-Tank villain, as this keeps him out of trouble with the SPD electorate and also nicely shuts up Mützenich and the rest of the left wing of his party. When Germany eventually does send Leopard 2s, not even the most pacifist SPD guys will say a word because Scholz was simply forced to do so by the warmongering Americans and Poles. Everyone's happy.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Audgisil said:

I guess things are getting pretty hot in Ukraine. In all seriousness though, these kinds of things really help with moral and continue to show the difference between how Russia and Ukraine treat their troops.

 

Very popular home-SPA recreation thing for tourists in Carpathian mountains ) 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

The merits of sending tanks or not to Ukraine aside, it's very clear that this German government is quite bad at the diplomacy and politics of the issue generally. Germany is now in a situation where when/if it relents, its doesn't get much credit and it has already deeply shaken the faith of previous buyers of its military products. Very strange.

 

 

Its almost like...there's a lack of Leadership...

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

I was reminded of this from before the war: 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/biden-says-nord-stream-2-wont-go-forward-if-russia-invades-ukraine-.html

Nord Stream 2 is a somewhat bad example. For the sake of brevity, let's ignore the question whether it was a good idea to build that pipeline in the first place. Before the war had started few believed that Putin would be so stupid to start a war (go back a few pages, even many here admit they were surprised). The USA had ... erred ... before with intelligence information and Biden had just made an enormous mess out of Afghanistan. What is more important, the Trump administration had tried to blackmail Germany several times, Nord Stream 2 being one of the targets. Several Republican Governors had threatened the mayor of the small town where Nord Stream 2 would reach Germany. Incidentally the Governors' states would be the ones to profit from selling LNG to Germany. Very, very few back then believed that the US pressure to stop Nord Stream 2 if Putin was to actually invade Ukraine was without a very great deal of self-interest.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Butschi

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

There's so much we don't see going on behind the scenes.  I think the US, UK, and some other countries learned a lot about Germany's reluctance of putting European and global interests ahead of its own economic self interests.  During the buildup to the war it is pretty clear that the US, in particular, used this knowledge to deliberately shape policies that Germany would find difficult to "squirm out of" once the shooting started.  It was designed in such a way as to remove debate from taking action, something that Germany has traditionally used to undermine meaningful actions which it views as harmful to its own economic interests.  Brilliant diplomacy.

Here's something fun to think about... yet another Putin blunder.  Picture this:

Germany is getting pulled into meetings by the US, UK, and EU as well as NATO.  There's all kinds of talk about Russia launching a massive war, so massive that the West will have to act swiftly and strongly.  German officials are not stupid, clearly they would have seen this. 

Correctly, Germany needed to know for themselves what the situation really is.  They use all their back channels to the Kremlin to determine what is really going on.  They are reassured by Russia in some way that the big invasion is just US fantasy.  Because Putin kept the war plans close to his chest, independent attempts to verify the plans likely turned up nothing.  This is what Germany wanted to hear, so they believed it.

When Germany went back to the negotiating rooms to case out possible responses to a full scale war, it agreed to a series of measures that would dramatically harm German business interests THINKING that they would never happen.  This way they seem "onboard" with the rest of Europe and the West, yet not thinking they would be called on to actually do any of this.

Had Germany's contacts with Russia given a different impression, it is quite possible that Germany might have tried to scuttle/weaken the initial response because they would be more sure they would have to do what they agreed to do.  Therefore, Russia not tipping Germany off might have been the single most important factor in Germany agreeing to the strong response.

This is all theory, of course, but it does seem fairly reasonable.

Steve

Evil always contains the seeds of its own defeat....

[danfrodo]

18 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

For those who have the stomach to listen to these psychos for thirteen minutes, here is a recent example of how the "special military operation" is being discussed on Russian television these days.

And the elephant in the room, once again.  TC is not on some obscure channel, he's got a huge megaphone to spew dangerous nonsense that gets people killed.

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

I fully agree that Ukraine needs to press as hard as it possibly can, as soon as it can. Unfortunately there is ample video evidence all over the board that the ground simply hasn't frozen hard hard enough for large scale operations. That being the case Ukraine just needs to be as ready as it can be when the weather comes around. Attacking and failing when the ground won't support large scale operations doesn't help at all.

Yes, agreed. And all the bickering and fumbling about among the Allies wastes time now. Time for a more comprehensive systems and training plan and process to rebuild a more efficient and less piecemeal hodgepodge of kit. With nearly a year elapsed, the news instead suggests bizarre political arguments and obfuscation while each nation goes it alone in offering up what it may. Not saying all that hasn’t been essential and welcome. Rather, by now the rearming of Ukraine should be within a rational and shared framework. If that is hidden behind all the noise, terrific. And again, yes - I’ve wondered during this muddy season whether the AFU would pull a Muhammad Ali “Rope A Dope”. Waiting for Russians to exhaust themselves and then go for the knockdown.  

[poesel]

41 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/22/vladimir-putin-ukraine-west-russia-president

More endgame yuck:

Even if Ukraine chases every last Russian soldier from its land, Russia’s aggression will not end.

If Russia has been driven off Crimea, Mariupol, Donetsk & Luhansk - do you really think that the current Russian regime (including successor clones) would survive it? If that above had happened, anyone somehow connected to this war would be burned - politically or literally - at the stake.

Should Ukraine manage to achieve one or two of the above goals, the war is over. Russia has surprised with its stubbornness, but even that must have a limit.

[Lethaface]

On 1/21/2023 at 7:00 PM, dan/california said:

I agree this has been a problem throughout the entire third world essentially, and we ought to try to fix it. But the USSR/Russia really is a special case. Only Russia has built an army, and a nuclear arsenal, that threatens the entire world. Zaire/the Congo is an epically, biblically, miserable place, but can barely threaten a border village in a neighboring country. And I know I am cherry picking the example, but it really is mostly true.

Wrong, very.

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, poesel said:

If Russia has been driven off Crimea, Mariupol, Donetsk & Luhansk - do you really think that the current Russian regime (including successor clones) would survive it? If that above had happened, anyone somehow connected to this war would be burned - politically or literally - at the stake.

I like to think Putin would not survive even getting back to Feb22 borders, let alone complete loss of stolen territory.  But it's certainly possible.  He's built a world that seems to be very safe from coups so far despite him running RU over a cliff for basically nothing. So I think we have to envision a world where Putin loses and Putin still leads, sadly.  It's one of the possible outcomes, sadly. 

[Butschi]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I like to think Putin would not survive even getting back to Feb22 borders, let alone complete loss of stolen territory.  But it's certainly possible.  He's built a world that seems to be very safe from coups so far despite him running RU over a cliff for basically nothing. So I think we have to envision a world where Putin loses and Putin still leads, sadly.  It's one of the possible outcomes, sadly. 

And dictators have survived much worse defeats, I'm afraid.

[Vet 0369]

9 hours ago, Huba said:

Perhaps something will happen tomorrow already:

 

Well, I wouldn’t stand any closer to the bogged tank than the length of the cable they are using to pull it loose. If that cable snapped at almost any point except right at the bogged tank, they would have been cut in half by it.

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Butschi said:

And dictators have survived much worse defeats, I'm afraid.

for sure .   There were a lot of germans standing around in the rubble of their cities in winter of 44-45 still thinking "Hitler has a plan for final victory!", though I suspect most were no longer on the Hitler-is-a-genius bandwagon.   But he survived because he built a really good security apparatus around him, despite sa couple pretty good efforts at killing him w a bomb.

[FancyCat]

In addition to all the other excuses and cover Scholz is attempting to run with (lack of European cooperation, than lack of American cooperation) now we get this gem.

 

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

In addition to all the other excuses and cover Scholz is attempting to run with (lack of European cooperation, than lack of American cooperation) now we get this gem.

 

Yeah, if Putin gets angry he might start killing children.... oh wait, too late.  This sounds more & more like corruption to me every day.  So prove me wrong, Sholz, and do the right dang thing.  It's just tanks, it aint long range missiles striking Rostov.

[Lethaface]

On 1/21/2023 at 11:47 PM, Battlefront.com said:

I guess this is a part of the reason why there's so much being said about the German behavior (see Beleg85 post above).  The German posters here have done an excellent job explaining, though not trying to justify, how it is Germany is not behaving like other nations expect of it.  I have a pretty good understanding of Germany's situation, but now that understanding is much better.  Thank you all for that.

I think it is also very good to continually remind people that Scholz ≠ Germany.  He might be a reflection of a part, even a large part, of German citizens, but that isn't the same thing.  However, it is easily confused even by our German posters' here because at the same time they also speak of long standing policies and political views that are not specific to the Scholz government.  Which means it is not completely wrong to say "Germany" instead of Scholz in some circumstances.

While it is fine to say "well, this is the way Germany is" the next thing that should be said is "unfortunately, this is not the way Germany should be".  At least that is the way I see it.

Times of crisis help define a nation for years to come.  This is Germany's time to decide how much it wants to be involved in European leadership for decades to come.  Based on Germany's prewar importance to Europe, it should be doing a lot more than it is.  It is not "rising to the occasion" and this will not be forgotten by many within Europe and the US.

It is Germany's right to choose how it responds, but it is also the right of the others involved to have an opinion as well.  So far, I'd say it has been a major disappointment.

Steve

A good description of the 'German affair' on the thread. I'm not German and usually don't have the need to defend them, as I rather opt for Germany to take more responsibility on certain matters almost exactly like you describe in your post. But I don't fully agree that it's a major disappointment. Watching solely the facts of what's been delivered/done, including non-military (financial) support, Germany has 'showed the right colors' when it was required to show hand. It hasn't shown as much initiative as they could/should have, true. And PR-wise they're making a disaster sort of, at least for people 'invested' into media about the war. But I wouldn't call it a major disappointment, more like 'expected'. Major disappointment would be if they would have tried to go the neutral way like Switzerland, one could say Israel and some other countries I don't feel like naming. It is important that Germany keeps following along the rest of the herd. Not sure if playing hard ball by other countries is the best way, but what do I know. 
From my perspective there's quite a bit of evolution in the support delivered/promised to Ukraine. I understand Ukraine keeps making sure we don't lose interest but overall things could have been worse support wise, imo. Including ze Germans.

[Butschi]

7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

for sure .   There were a lot of germans standing around in the rubble of their cities in winter of 44-45 still thinking "Hitler has a plan for final victory!", though I suspect most were no longer on the Hitler-is-a-genius bandwagon.   But he survived because he built a really good security apparatus around him, despite sa couple pretty good efforts at killing him w a bomb.

Many Germans believed in Hitler right to the end. They blamed the party and all the, in their eyes, incompetent, corrupt and traitorous people around him said: "Poor Hitler, if only the people around him had supported him more."

[kevinkin]

44 minutes ago, poesel said:

that the current Russian regime (including successor clones) would survive it? If that above had happened, anyone somehow connected to this war would be burned - politically or literally - at the stake.

Maybe they would be. But the writer's point goes well beyond future clones that we know are in the wings. Conquest and glory at the expense of liberal societies is ingrained in Russia. Not the individual. But in the institutions and the means by which you can dream of a better future for your family. I believe the writer thinks those means will always be through corruption and organized criminal activities. Russia will remain a large nation with huge resources just waiting for thugs to grab for their own. If they can't carve out external empires, the crooks will just steal from each other and create their own kingdoms. All while having WMD and bad actors like Iran to keep sensible societies and international accountability at arms length. To truly change, Russia would require severe treatment almost in line with what Germany and Japan experienced post-war. But they did not have WMDs that now are driving western strategy related its own future well being.   

Edited January 23, 2023 by kevinkin