How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukraine can afford to delay an offensive, Russia can not.  It does appear to be the smart thing to do.

Now we just have to convince  armchair generals around the world the military value of the defensive in these situations. But there is something in human nature that hates watching innocent civilians slaughtered and just wants the whole mess to go away. The bull has to disregard the matador's cloak. If I know these things and losing patience, what about the vast majority who can't find Kiev on a map? Not a new problem across generations, but it's our problem now. 

--------------

WSJ Headline today : Ukraine War Lands Europe’s Leaders in a Battle of Wills
Fear of receding U.S. support for Kyiv raises pressure in Europe for bolder action

Edited January 23, 2023 by kevinkin

[Kinophile]

16 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

As they should be! An intelligence “unit” is very adapt at developing “intentions” from what to many seem to be the most innocuous statements and releases. In fact, I don’t have a doubt that there are “Professional Agents” on this thread reading every word to try to determine the intentions of Ukraine, the EU, and the U.S.

One of the most widely used catch phrases during WWII was “Loose lips sink ships” it is still appropriate today, and members of this Forum really need to keep it in mind when asking “how many …” and “Are Ukrainians getting X and being trained on Y.” No competent military member or public official should be contributing to Russia’s “intelligence” by providing them with that type of data.

Nough said by this old Platoon Sgt.

Tbh, These days,  any digitally competent Russian employee of the GRU can find vastly more info about the current state of things than our mental fumblings here.  

[Bulletpoint]

I was just thinking the other day that it's been some time since I last read any accusations of "Russophobia", but apparently it's still a thing:

 

The Estonian ambassador in Russia has been ordered to leave the country by 7 February after the Kremlin accused the country of "Russophobia".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64372508

 

Hopefully, the ambassador and the Estonian people will receive psychiatric assistance to help overcome this completely irrational fear that Russia might suddenly attack them despite all assurances to the contrary.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[kevinkin]

Follow on to last night's earlier report:

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-politics-government-united-states-c9459e1bed9ad7358a59b541b3a5ae8c

Talk about chutzpah:

“Supplies of offensive weapons to the Kyiv regime would lead to a global catastrophe,” Volodin said. “If Washington and NATO supply weapons that would be used for striking peaceful cities and making attempts to seize our territory as they threaten to do, it would trigger a retaliation with more powerful weapons.”

Sense any fear or frustration?:

Medvedev, a former Russian president, warned that “in case of a protracted conflict,” Russia could seek to form a military alliance with “the nations that are fed up with the Americans and a pack of their castrated dogs.”

[Huba]

Circus continues:

 

[Beleg85]

27 minutes ago, Huba said:

Circus continues:

Ok, I completelly lost the track what is happening. Does our German friends here can tell more? Does Baerbock statements represent official stance or is part of some inside quarrels at the top?

 

Estonians jumping in (again) and virtually emptying themselves from artillery. A bold move:

https://twitter.com/WarNewsPL1/status/1617464560226652162

-dozens of 155mm and 122 mmpieces and thousands of ammo

-hundreds of "Carl-Gustavs"

-support vehicles etc.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Beleg85

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Circus continues:

 

The merits of sending tanks or not to Ukraine aside, it's very clear that this German government is quite bad at the diplomacy and politics of the issue generally. Germany is now in a situation where when/if it relents, its doesn't get much credit and it has already deeply shaken the faith of previous buyers of its military products. Very strange.

 

 

[Huba]

14 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The merits of sending tanks or not to Ukraine aside, it's very clear that this German government is quite bad at the diplomacy and politics of the issue generally. Germany is now in a situation where when/if it relents, its doesn't get much credit and it has already deeply shaken the faith of previous buyers of its military products. Very strange.

Obviously the reason for the DE gov apparent stalling is not related to interests of DE industry, it happens despite them. DE defense companies were quite vocal about sending armor to Ukraine since the debate started in April/ May, and had they had their way, the industry wouldn't be in the nasty situation it is now. 
In related news, Norwegian parliament will apparently discuss sending tanks and other heavy equipment to Ukraine:

 

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Circus continues:

 

This should burry the ridiculous goto excuse that Scholz doesnt block others from sending Leo2s and that this is all just evil Poland gov bashing poor German gov.

I'd pay good money just to get a hint as to why the SPD/Scholz behaves like this, at the expense of pretty much everyone except Russia.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Kraft

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

Obviously the reason for the DE gov apparent stalling is not related to interests of DE industry, it happens despite them.

The defense industry is a subset of Germany's total industrial interests, and as our German posters have pointed out it's a very small percentage.  The Politico article that Maciej Zwolinski posted in the previous page makes the case that industry is playing a role in appeasement and is possibly the biggest reason:

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-strategic-timidity-olaf-scholz-us-washington-joe-biden/

What do we know of the German government's policies regarding its industrial interests generally as well as specifically towards Russia?  What do we know of the German industry's ties to Russia?  What do we know about Russia's policy to corrupt foreign influences and leadership with material benefits (mostly money, but likely other things)?  What do we know of Germany's ability to easily replace trade from Russia with trade from elsewhere in the world?

Looking at all of this there is nothing different going on now than we saw in 2014-2022 except that the government, under Scholz, is having a much more difficult time trying to "do the right thing" while also trying to minimize the damage done to its industrial relations with Russia so they can start up again quickly "this all blows over".

What we are seeing now is that Scholz has a much more difficult time of doing this than Merkel did.  Russia deliberately tried to settle things down after 2015 so that world would "forget and forgive" and in many significant ways that is exactly what happened.  Now?  There's really not much maneuver room for Scholz to continue the SDP's policy of putting its economic interests ahead of its responsibilities to punish Russian aggression.

Toss in bribes, kompromat, and utter incompetence of Scholz and the SDP's leadership to round out the picture of what we're watching unfold now.

Steve

P.S.  as a reminder, there's quite a bit of evidence that Germany was strong armed into agreeing to the initial raft of sanctions against Russia, including its removal from SWIFT, because a) it didn't think it would come to that and b) it likely didn't want to show its appeasement hand too soon.

[SteelRain]

16 hours ago, MikeyD said:

Yeh, for all we know the Pentagon may have simply looked at the bridge ratings across the country and said "Oh...lets not send them Abrams after all." I recall back in 1999 the US march into Kosovo turned into something of a farce as they struggled to get their heavy MBTs from point A to point B.

In 1999 the Bundeswehr had a Reserve Formation on Standby at the Bergen Training Range equipped with
Leopard 1's because the commanders feared that the Leo2 would be too heavy for the bridges in Kosovo.

Edited January 23, 2023 by SteelRain

[billbindc]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The defense industry is a subset of Germany's total industrial interests, and as our German posters have pointed out it's a very small percentage.  The Politico article that Maciej Zwolinski posted in the previous page makes the case that industry is playing a role in appeasement and is possibly the biggest reason:

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-strategic-timidity-olaf-scholz-us-washington-joe-biden/

What do we know of the German government's policies regarding its industrial interests generally as well as specifically towards Russia?  What do we know of the German industry's ties to Russia?  What do we know about Russia's policy to corrupt foreign influences and leadership with material benefits (mostly money, but likely other things)?  What do we know of Germany's ability to easily replace trade from Russia with trade from elsewhere in the world?

Looking at all of this there is nothing different going on now than we saw in 2014-2022 except that the government, under Scholz, is having a much more difficult time trying to "do the right thing" while also trying to minimize the damage done to its industrial relations with Russia so they can start up again quickly "this all blows over".

What we are seeing now is that Scholz has a much more difficult time of doing this than Merkel did.  Russia deliberately tried to settle things down after 2015 so that world would "forget and forgive" and in many significant ways that is exactly what happened.  Now?  There's really not much maneuver room for Scholz to continue the SDP's policy of putting its economic interests ahead of its responsibilities to punish Russian aggression.

Toss in bribes, kompromat, and utter incompetence of Scholz and the SDP's leadership to round out the picture of what we're watching unfold now.

Steve

P.S.  as a reminder, there's quite a bit of evidence that Germany was strong armed into agreeing to the initial raft of sanctions against Russia, including its removal from SWIFT, because a) it didn't think it would come to that and b) it likely didn't want to show its appeasement hand too soon.

I was reminded of this from before the war: 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/biden-says-nord-stream-2-wont-go-forward-if-russia-invades-ukraine-.html

There's a strong pattern here for other nations announcing a decision and then the German government backing away after the meeting. That can only be a few things...1. Scholtz personally rules out decisions post facto or 2. coalition partners are unable to agree on the policy. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The defense industry is a subset of Germany's total industrial interests, and as our German posters have pointed out it's a very small percentage.  The Politico article that Maciej Zwolinski posted in the previous page makes the case that industry is playing a role in appeasement and is possibly the biggest reason:

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-strategic-timidity-olaf-scholz-us-washington-joe-biden/

What do we know of the German government's policies regarding its industrial interests generally as well as specifically towards Russia?  What do we know of the German industry's ties to Russia?  What do we know about Russia's policy to corrupt foreign influences and leadership with material benefits (mostly money, but likely other things)?  What do we know of Germany's ability to easily replace trade from Russia with trade from elsewhere in the world?

Looking at all of this there is nothing different going on now than we saw in 2014-2022 except that the government, under Scholz, is having a much more difficult time trying to "do the right thing" while also trying to minimize the damage done to its industrial relations with Russia so they can start up again quickly "this all blows over".

What we are seeing now is that Scholz has a much more difficult time of doing this than Merkel did.  Russia deliberately tried to settle things down after 2015 so that world would "forget and forgive" and in many significant ways that is exactly what happened.  Now?  There's really not much maneuver room for Scholz to continue the SDP's policy of putting its economic interests ahead of its responsibilities to punish Russian aggression.

Toss in bribes, kompromat, and utter incompetence of Scholz and the SDP's leadership to round out the picture of what we're watching unfold now.

Steve

P.S.  as a reminder, there's quite a bit of evidence that Germany was strong armed into agreeing to the initial raft of sanctions against Russia, including its removal from SWIFT, because a) it didn't think it would come to that and b) it likely didn't want to show its appeasement hand too soon.

Scholz is in a political vise, the screws are being turned, and he has neither the talent or the courage to escape it. His party, the SPD is essentially for peace at any price. Or something close to it, at any rate. The rest of his coalition, the political opposition, the German people at large, the rest of NATO, and the entire Western world disagree with this stance, albeit with varying degrees of vehemence. Scholz has been paralyzed by this, and just can't seem to make a decision and explain it. And there a very old saying about the worst decision is no decision. 

Yes, Butschi, I think the man should resign, he isn't up to the job. But if that isn't his decision, what is?

[dan/california]

10 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

I hope you are right and ISW is wrong. But one thing often described in past wars is that after a while, a larger percentage of the least experienced, least capable become the casualties; that however painful and slowly the remaining troops and leadership learn much more than what they began with. Russia in the past exhibited the ability to dig deep into its population and keep fighting despite massive setbacks. Yes, Ukraine’s matériel, inventory, training all are improving. At the same time Russia is getting something if a breather and the time to refocus its military leadership and approach to the war. I’m not suggesting they will be transformed overnight from the mess they’ve been. But it’s prudent to assume the professional military is not entirely and absolutely incapable of learning from its mistakes. Certainly under the thumb of the brutal WWII dictatorship, with all the purges and losses, Russia did learn a lot during that war. That was so despite its initial offensives not going well at all.

Russia won’t be able to keep up with Ukraine. But it may be improving enough to cause a lot more pain and suffering along the way. All the more reason for the Allies to buck up, and stop all the indecision and bickering. It gives Russia hope.  The piecemeal approach was understandable - unavoidable during the initial frantic months. Time now to have studied and agreed on a comprehensive and unified arming and training plan. Guys have already outlined the logic here in the forum. With each nation playing the part best suited for putting Ukraine’s military on the path to a rational outfitting in as short a timeframe as possible. With new NATO members in the offing, the exercise would be beneficial all around. Or else get out of the way of those who will.

I fully agree that Ukraine needs to press as hard as it possibly can, as soon as it can. Unfortunately there is ample video evidence all over the board that the ground simply hasn't frozen hard hard enough for large scale operations. That being the case Ukraine just needs to be as ready as it can be when the weather comes around. Attacking and failing when the ground won't support large scale operations doesn't help at all.

[Butschi]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

What do we know of the German government's policies regarding its industrial interests generally as well as specifically towards Russia?  What do we know of the German industry's ties to Russia? 

Generally, the our government is very much influenced by our industry. I haven't heard "Deutschland AG" (Germany Inc.) mentioned much in recent years but it used to be term describing the much too strong ties between politics and economy. Although frowned upon it is quite common for politicians to get well payed jobs in companies after they leave politics and much too often it is those same companies that received favorable legislation and things like that. Ironically, there is a lot of grumbling going on that politicians listen too much to those nasty NGOs and so politicians deliberately attempt to deindustrialize Germany. The contrary is usually what happens. Laws rarely pass that the industry isn't ok with and to noones surprise it politicians usually say things like "it is most important to fight climate change, we do everything towards that end" and then secretly do everything to weaken every initiative at EU level that would regulate car emission. Just as an example.

Now Russia. Trade-wise, Russia is unimportant. But cheap energy isn't and gas for especially chemical industry isn't either. German over-dependence on Russian gas was not, as many think driven by politics. BASF was a real big player and driver, partnering with Russian companies to exploit new gas fields and all that. The same BASF is now complaining that German energy costs are too high and planning to move production to China.

The thing with energy is that the German government under Merkel has totally botched the transition to renewables. The CDU shut down the nuclear plants much earlier then planned by the Greens (another irony) and started to shut down coal plants but neglected to push renewables (and introduced new burocracy that made it much more difficult to build renewables). They said "we need gas to bridge the energy gap" but didn't push to close the gap. That was obviously done to keep energy prices low for the industry. 

To summarize, although publicly saying otherwise, German governments usually do everything in order to protect our industry.

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, I completelly lost the track what is happening. Does our German friends here can tell more? Does Baerbock statements represent official stance or is part of some inside quarrels at the top?

It looks like Baerbock had just given her own opinion or that of her party when she gave that interview yesterday. She was much more outspoken and supportive of arms deliveries than Scholz in the past. I guess she got a reprimand and now had to tell the official government line. But German media is demanding more and more loudly now that the chancellor make a decision (not necessarily which) and that he should explain his current policy.

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I was reminded of this from before the war: 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/biden-says-nord-stream-2-wont-go-forward-if-russia-invades-ukraine-.html

There's a strong pattern here for other nations announcing a decision and then the German government backing away after the meeting. That can only be a few things...1. Scholtz personally rules out decisions post facto or 2. coalition partners are unable to agree on the policy. 

There's so much we don't see going on behind the scenes.  I think the US, UK, and some other countries learned a lot about Germany's reluctance of putting European and global interests ahead of its own economic self interests.  During the buildup to the war it is pretty clear that the US, in particular, used this knowledge to deliberately shape policies that Germany would find difficult to "squirm out of" once the shooting started.  It was designed in such a way as to remove debate from taking action, something that Germany has traditionally used to undermine meaningful actions which it views as harmful to its own economic interests.  Brilliant diplomacy.

Here's something fun to think about... yet another Putin blunder.  Picture this:

Germany is getting pulled into meetings by the US, UK, and EU as well as NATO.  There's all kinds of talk about Russia launching a massive war, so massive that the West will have to act swiftly and strongly.  German officials are not stupid, clearly they would have seen this. 

Correctly, Germany needed to know for themselves what the situation really is.  They use all their back channels to the Kremlin to determine what is really going on.  They are reassured by Russia in some way that the big invasion is just US fantasy.  Because Putin kept the war plans close to his chest, independent attempts to verify the plans likely turned up nothing.  This is what Germany wanted to hear, so they believed it.

When Germany went back to the negotiating rooms to case out possible responses to a full scale war, it agreed to a series of measures that would dramatically harm German business interests THINKING that they would never happen.  This way they seem "onboard" with the rest of Europe and the West, yet not thinking they would be called on to actually do any of this.

Had Germany's contacts with Russia given a different impression, it is quite possible that Germany might have tried to scuttle/weaken the initial response because they would be more sure they would have to do what they agreed to do.  Therefore, Russia not tipping Germany off might have been the single most important factor in Germany agreeing to the strong response.

This is all theory, of course, but it does seem fairly reasonable.

Steve

[Huba]

51 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The defense industry is a subset of Germany's total industrial interests, and as our German posters have pointed out it's a very small percentage.

Fully agree, should've written it more clearly. I meant the armaments industry specifically - recently made argument that it is it's interests thad drive DE decisionmaking absolutely doesn't hold water. 

[Combatintman]

4 hours ago, kevinkin said:

But there is something in human nature that hates watching innocent civilians slaughtered and just wants the whole mess to go away. The bull has to disregard the matador's cloak. If I know these things and losing patience, what about the vast majority who can't find Kiev on a map? Not a new problem across generations, but it's our problem now. 

--------------

WSJ Headline today : Ukraine War Lands Europe’s Leaders in a Battle of Wills
Fear of receding U.S. support for Kyiv raises pressure in Europe for bolder action

The Former Yugoslavia eventually being one of those "Do Sumfink" moments on the back of bad stuff happening which was prominent in a media environment sans the interweb/Twitter etc for quite a while against a backdrop of a fair degree of political inertia for a fair few years.  Thankfully then the media had a vague idea of what its job was but then again that area of the world remains mired in dispute.

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Generally, the our government is very much influenced by our industry. I haven't heard "Deutschland AG" (Germany Inc.) mentioned much in recent years but it used to be term describing the much too strong ties between politics and economy.

Before the Euro there was also the statement "Deutschmark Über Alles"   I always thought that was a fun one!

14 minutes ago, Butschi said:

To summarize, although publicly saying otherwise, German governments usually do everything in order to protect our industry.

While this is true of most national governments, it does seem to be even more true of Germany's governments going back decades.  These roots go back even further than the BRD.  Historians do not forget that it was the German industrialists that put Hitler into power, not the people and not the ruthlessness of the NSDP.  

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/how-big-business-bailed-out-nazis

The point you make about government policy being tied to the petrochemical industry is not unique to Germany.  It is a massive problem for any country that has significant energy usage or exports.  In the case of the US, both.  Every time an American criticizes another nation for doing the wrong things for the wrong reasons, people point to Saudi Arabia and ask the same standards be applied there.

Just making sure as we continue to bash Germany that we keep things in perspective

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

The Former Yugoslavia eventually being one of those "Do Sumfink" moments on the back of bad stuff happening which was prominent in a media environment sans the interweb/Twitter etc for quite a while against a backdrop of a fair degree of political inertia for a fair few years.  Thankfully then the media had a vague idea of what its job was but then again that area of the world remains mired in dispute.

Yes.  This was a tragic example of Europe preferring to let the crisis resolve itself no matter how bloody and criminal it became.  Until it couldn't.

The US also learned from this.  Initially its position was to let Europe handle its own problems in its own way.  That was the correct thing to do, until it realized Europe wasn't either interested or capable of handling it.

The lesson all parties learned is that Europe needs the US to obligate it to do the right thing because it is too internally divided and disorganized.  This gets us right to the heart of the leadership problems within the EU that we discussed a dozen or two pages ago.  Consensus governance only works on a small scale between people/groups that are largely on the same page to start with.  This doesn't sound like the EU at all, does it?

Steve

[Butschi]

39 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Yes, Butschi, I think the man should resign, he isn't up to the job. But if that isn't his decision, what is?

I didn't vote for him. That said, I'd rather keep him and give him a hard knock on the head than get the alternative. Current polls see the CDU in front, the very party that meant 16 years of doing nothing. And we would get Friedricht Merz. Admittedly, he is more likely to give tanks to Ukraine but he is an asshole who spews resentments - and IMO not only to bait voters from the far right - and once said he isn't richt (he worked at BlackRock and has a private jet) just upper middle class.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I didn't vote for him. That said, I'd rather keep him and give him a hard knock on the head than get the alternative. Current polls see the CDU in front, the very party that meant 16 years of doing nothing. And we would get Friedricht Merz. Admittedly, he is more likely to give tanks to Ukraine but he is an asshole who spews resentments - and IMO not only to bait voters from the far right - and once said he isn't richt (he worked at BlackRock and has a private jet) just upper middle class.

Sometimes all the choices are poor, of course if Ukraine actually wins a lot of politics could hopefully move on...

You have to love people who feel underprivileged because because of the size of their plane. 

[Audgisil]

I guess things are getting pretty hot in Ukraine. In all seriousness though, these kinds of things really help with moral and continue to show the difference between how Russia and Ukraine treat their troops.

 

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Audgisil said:

I guess things are getting pretty hot in Ukraine. In all seriousness though, these kinds of things really help with moral and continue to show the difference between how Russia and Ukraine treat their troops.

 

Worth its weight in gold.  Soldiers unable to really get warm for weeks on end would benefit incredibly from this.  Western allies should earmark money specifically for these.  It's a war-winner!  Hopefully RU mobiks freezing w bad food & bad clothing in muddy trenches w guns at their backs will see these videos somehow.  Heck, UKR should advertise that all new RU prisoners get hot tub within 24 hours of surrendering.  There'd be a stampede of white flags.