How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

7 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Good thread putting some context into the Leopard saga:

 

Recall the furor over the Marders, Dingos, etc, the thread just leaves out the context of the latest Rammstein conference. The inability of Scholz and his government to articulate German aid and unity with Ukraine is their own damn fault.

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Fair enough, although I think in terms of possible reserves, the MoD keeps an eye on industry stocks and I'm convinced both ministries talk to each other about that.

Well, lets hope they talk to each other. On the other hand, what we have seen in the last months...

[The_MonkeyKing]

7 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Good thread putting some context into the Leopard saga:

 

To me sound like he filling all the unknowns with his own oppinions. I could just as well fill those unknowns but with inverted conclusions.

Seems to be just a random dude with 500 followers.

[Der Zeitgeist]

9 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Nice try to construct a narrative,

I'll admit it's less exciting than the Kompromat narrative you guys here seem to prefer. 

[Huba]

11 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

To me sound like he filling all the unknowns with his own oppinions. I could just as well fill those unknowns but with inverted conclusions.

Seems to be just a random dude with 500 followers.

This thread is hardly about Leopards, it is about lashing out at Poland/ PiS/ Morawiecki boogeyman. 

[Butschi]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

This thread is hardly about Leopards, it is about lashing out at Poland/ PiS/ Morawiecki boogeyman. 

Maybe we can have a Poland-bashing day, too? I'll settle for bi-weekly.

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Maybe we can have a Poland-bashing day, too? I'll settle for bi-weekly.

Please let me know in advance, I'll clear my schedule and buy chips and beer  

But seriously, here are some points to this thread:

- it ignored the French status
- it ignored the "Baltic Pledge" conference
- it read Lloyd's statement as being firmly supportive for German position, which is a joke
- it omitted Błaszczak's remarks that we are getting closer to the solution, made after the Ramstein
- Morawiecki stated that "we'll go unilaterally if there isn't a solution soon". The fact that Poland didn't immediately follow with Leo delivery today being read as "backtracking" from this threat/promise is dishonest at best
- and so on and so forth, I could go on like this

Edited January 21, 2023 by Huba

[Kinophile]

Just now, Butschi said:

Maybe we can have a Poland-bashing day, too? I'll settle for bi-weekly.

Ho boy that way lies madness! 

 

[Artkin]

I also agree leopards doesn't really seem all that feasible. There are 2000 of them in Europe, but nobody really has enough to send a meaningful amount alone. 

Is the issue with abrams really in the powerpack? Or an issue of the ammunition? It's strange to me that we would send bradley alone. It was meant to fight alongside the abrams. I can't see bradleys or cv90s alone making a meaningful difference especially considering their (likely) offensive role on the battlefield. Without modern armor to go alongside the ifvs it seems sort of redundant to form a new unit around these if theyre just going to be equipped with soviet era armor. 

[Beleg85]

12 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

I'll admit it's less exciting than the Kompromat narrative you guys here seem to prefer. 

It was just a working hypothesis, but given wide business-political connections of last decades (if not earlier) and what we know about Russian services it is very plausible. If entire German foregin policy would pivot around it is where this explanation fails. But- still a possible factor.

Another UAV:

 

[FancyCat]

Again, it isn't like Germany is being surprised (hopefully) but as can be seen in past deliveries of aid, it seems pretty coordinated throughout NATO. Take a page out of Macron's book. Be first to deliver something to Ukraine. Even if first is by a couple of days, it matters. There hasn't been a issue negatively about any country upstaging another with announcements. In lagging behind, in projecting a image of only acting in full unity with the U.S (not even NATO at this point), it has rightly opened itself to criticism. If the German government wishes to project the image of restraint and cautiousness for domestic consumption, it walks into it knowing fully how it can be seen (distorted) internationally.

The Dingo was just embarrassing. In the span of one week, the German government had to reverse it's stance.

You don't hear anyone complaining about France not giving MBTs, cause France can rightly point to the AMX and the Caesar earlier announcement. U.S? No Abrams for Ukraine? HIMARS.

Marders would have been a great one to go first on.

[Der Zeitgeist]

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Take a page out of Macron's book. Be first to deliver something to Ukraine. Even if first is by a couple of days, it matters.

Germany was first with IRIS-T. 

[dan/california]

8 hours ago, niall78 said:

Have to jump in on that one.

As the gas was sold on the world market the whole planet benefited from the Russian supplies dampening down the market price of such gas. When the Russian supply is cut Europe buys its gas elsewhere and the global price spirals effecting everyone. So everyone worldwide that uses gas helped build the Russian army.

Same way we are all still benefiting from Saudi oil worldwide and other nasty regimes even if our countries don't buy directly from them.  It's a pity that Western democratic countries are dependant on any crappy regime for any natural resource but we are. Fuel, rare earth metals, you name it we buy it and in the process support despotic countries that work to undermine us at any opportunity.

It's a problem all democracies have built up over decades and it really isn't the responsibility of one or two democracies to take all the flak for that situation developing.

Quote

Anyway, I spent most of my time in the office, crunching numbers. I did, however, sit in on a few cabinet-level meetings, and I recall in particular one involving European plans to build a pipeline that would greatly increase gas imports from the Soviet Union. Some officials were searching for ways to deter the project, but nobody had any good ideas.

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/26/opinion/russia-ukraine-oil-gas-prices.html

 

That meeting was 40 years ago.

I agree this has been a problem throughout the entire third world essentially, and we ought to try to fix it. But the USSR/Russia really is a special case. Only Russia has built an army, and a nuclear arsenal, that threatens the entire world. Zaire/the Congo is an epically, biblically, miserable place, but can barely threaten a border village in a neighboring country. And I know I am cherry picking the example, but it really is mostly true.

As a secondary issue I would argue that gas pipelines create more dependence than almost any other form of resource. Although the combination of global warming, and rather new LNG technology and capacity has pulled Europe through, just.

Above article is by Paul Krugman fyi. 

 

6 hours ago, hcrof said:

Following the excellent discussion about modern warfare on this thread, I have tried to condense my thoughts on what a "modern" army should look like based on the lessons from Ukraine. 

I would love to hear your thoughts and criticism. I not touching the whole tank thing directly though - I am not sure I am ready to go there yet!

 

 

I like it. I think the 120mm gun mortar makes a ton more sense than than the 105 mm high velocity gun they are actually going with.

 

Quote

https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2022/10/10/general-dynamics-to-begin-building-us-armys-new-light-tank-next-month/

This is the baby Abrams the U.S. actually buying, it seems to address the failures of the Stryker MGS without really rethinking the ROLE of the vehicle. The army seems to really like it because it uses the latest version of the Abrams FCS/thermals virtually without alteration, there are obvious logistical advantages for both crew training, and spares commonality in one of the most expensive bits of the system. However, I am not sure that something that has to show its entire turret to do anything in the modern environment is the best plan.The whole article is worth your time. I would REALLY like to compare to a 120mm gun mortar in the next version of of the game. Hey Steve, about that bone.....

 

Edited January 21, 2023 by dan/california

[chrisl]

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Sure but Enforceable,  how? 

 

That would have to be negotiated.

Maybe a peacekeeping force from the combined Baltic states?

[dan/california]

39 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Maybe we can have a Poland-bashing day, too? I'll settle for bi-weekly.

You have buy in, and the price is ............. 300 Leopard 2s.

[Butschi]

25 minutes ago, Artkin said:

I also agree leopards doesn't really seem all that feasible. There are 2000 of them in Europe, but nobody really has enough to send a meaningful amount alone. 

Is the issue with abrams really in the powerpack? Or an issue of the ammunition? It's strange to me that we would send bradley alone. It was meant to fight alongside the abrams. I can't see bradleys or cv90s alone making a meaningful difference especially considering their (likely) offensive role on the battlefield. Without modern armor to go alongside the ifvs it seems sort of redundant to form a new unit around these if theyre just going to be equipped with soviet era armor. 

Well, the other day Ben Hodges, former USAREUR said that, yes the M1 is more complicated and the Leopard would be better but still it would not be a problem to give the M1 to Ukraine and maintain it. Saying it was too complicated was just an excuse.

[cesmonkey]

13 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Well, the other day Ben Hodges, former USAREUR said that, yes the M1 is more complicated and the Leopard would be better but still it would not be a problem to give the M1 to Ukraine and maintain it. Saying it was too complicated was just an excuse.

Here's two perspectives I've found. It's probably not easy, but still possible. Seems contractors would help.

 

Edited January 21, 2023 by cesmonkey

[Haiduk]

First appearance of ex-UK "Sea King" in UKR service

 

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Here's too perspectives I've found. It's probably not easy, but still possible. Seems contractors would help.

 

I keep coming back to the fact that we gave some version of the Abrams to both the Egyptians and the Iraqis. The Ukrainians are a LOT, orders of magnitude LOT, better than the Egyptians or the Iraqis. So did we did we figure out a way for those two countries to make it work? Or was the entire idea that they couldn't make it work, and that the Israelis didn't need to worry about it BECAUSE they couldn't make it work? 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Artkin said:

I also agree leopards doesn't really seem all that feasible. There are 2000 of them in Europe, but nobody really has enough to send a meaningful amount alone. 

Is the issue with abrams really in the powerpack? Or an issue of the ammunition? It's strange to me that we would send bradley alone. It was meant to fight alongside the abrams. I can't see bradleys or cv90s alone making a meaningful difference especially considering their (likely) offensive role on the battlefield. Without modern armor to go alongside the ifvs it seems sort of redundant to form a new unit around these if theyre just going to be equipped with soviet era armor. 

by our doctrine yes,  Problem is the UA isn't using our doctrine.

[DesertFox]

21 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I keep coming back to the fact that we gave some version of the Abrams to both the Egyptians and the Iraqis. The Ukrainians are a LOT, orders of magnitude LOT, better than the Egyptians or the Iraqis. So did we did we figure out a way for those two countries to make it work? Or was the entire idea that they couldn't make it work, and that the Israelis didn't need to worry about it BECAUSE they couldn't make it work? 

True. Morokko is also Abrams user:

•  Morocco – Royal Moroccan Army: 222 M1A1 SA (situational awareness) tanks ordered in 2015.^[190][191] Deliveries under the contract started in July 2016^[192] with an estimated completion date of February 2018. The contract include 150 refurbished and upgraded tanks to the special armor configuration.^[193] Morocco took delivery of the first batch of M1A1SAs on 28 July 2016.^[194] A Foreign Military Sale for 162 M1A2Ms was approved by the U.S. Department of State in November 2018 and sent to Congress for final approval.^[195]

[Haiduk]

In last 3-4 days UKR artillery has struck some targets on left bank of Dnieper in Oleshky area and on "Nibulon" shipyard facilities near Hola Prystan'. According unconfirmed information large Russian column and ammo dump were destroyed. 

Also in last two days General Staff reported about strikes at Russian SAM positions

[Haiduk]

Old D-1 152 mm howitzer in Wagner service. Effective range 12,4 km.

[Haiduk]

Russian soldier asks in TG channel of some Russian volunteer, who cares about counter-sniper training and equipmnent either he has at least one sniper, because on their position UKR sniper in two days killed 16 men - 12 in one day and 4 in other. He got the answer, that no available sniper for now.

[JonS]

36 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I keep coming back to the fact that we gave some version of the Abrams to both the Egyptians and the Iraqis.

Tell me you didn't read the thread without telling me you didn't read the thread.