How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

These are all behind-the-curtain machinations of this fishy individual called Tom Bombadil. Probably a Mordor spy anyway.

Give us a song,  Tom!

-- 15 mins later - -

Lovely, thanks Tom, very ni-

-- 1 Hour Later - - 

...aaaand Thank you, that was unique and extensive. 26 verses long,  wow. Now,  wher-

-- 2 hours later --

Ok,  Tom,  that's very detailed,  lots of interesting and extremely unusual words there, lots to a so,  well we should be go-

-- 3 hours Later - - 

Tom.  TOM.  TOM!!  Stop,  stop STOP!!!!! 

-- 5 hours later - - 

Gimme a knife,  a spoon, quick Man,  quick,  anything! WTF do you mean, he's "immortal" !?? Why do this!? Who's bloody side is he on,  anyway!? 

 

Edited January 6, 2023 by Kinophile

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Twisk]

18 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Interesting quotations, albeit very hypothetical. And not counting lost territories and killed/translocated civilians, which USA in WW2 did not (or in fact, almost never from 1865 onward) endured.

I believe this counts U.S. civilian deaths from Japanese internment but yes.

Ukraine's east is likely to be both financial and population denuded (refugees, people caught under Russian occupation, people killed by Russians, etc...). But if the war continues for another 3 months or another 12 that is going to remain true so those losses are built in. The war ending sooner will allow those areas currently in the conflict zone to begin their recovery but it seems that most of the wars "optional" casualties are being drawn from unoccupied Ukraine.

Assuming Ukraine has lost U.S. WW2 equivalent KIA already of 130.000 over the last ~12 months they could sustain the same loss rate for nearly another 24 months before hitting the British WW2 equivalent KIA. I'm unfamiliar with British post-war culture but I suspect they are still far and away from the devastation that Italy, Germany, and the USSR experienced where 1% and greater losses were realized.

[The_Capt]

15 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I won't rehash the same peace negotiations discussed before, only point out the Ukrainian people have shown no indication of being the type to passively disagree with their government and Zelensky was by no means popular before the invasion.

Also, again considering Russia's current proposals around beginning talks is requiring the concession of lands currently occupied by Russia pretalks, any notion of trading away lands is gonna let Russia think that it has a chance of winning this conflict. We can harp all we want on sanctions and such destroying Russia as a country but clearly Russian pov is that the west is weak and will fold and beg for Russian gas and oil soon enough and since they will fold, conceding anything to Ukraine is premature and foolish.

I think one strategic aim must be that Russia does not gain one extra acre of Ukraine as a result of this war.  So pre-Feb 24 lines are critical as a minimum.  The reason for this is that Russia cannot be seen to gain/liberate/denazify/whatever-the-f@ck-they-are-going-on-about at all as a result of an illegal war. 

There was zero coherent or accepted self-defensive reason given for this war, which was pretty surprising.  The standard play is to blow something up in Russia and then stage manage the cause back to Ukraine, call "terrorism" and invade declaring right to self defence.  Putin and his gang were either too lazy or too far up their own asses to even make that effort.  They went from "field exercise" to  "right to protect from nazis" in a few weeks without bothering to cook up some sham evidence - hell a few old ladies weeping in the DNR after a "Ukrainian missile strike supported by NATO"?  How hard is it to do that?!

Russia basically declared rights of prima nocta on a nation that had been pretty much minding its own business and rolled in without even trying to make a case.  So this war is about as illegal as they get, I am talking Saddam Hussein illegal.  This was, and is, a big "F@ck you" to the international order, signaling that we are sliding back to Rule of the Gun.  This sets up every nation with a grudge and weapons to basically do whatever it wants, which will drive a lot of regional and bilateral alliances in reaction, and that is pretty much how WW1 started - but now with nukes!  

So Russia cannot gain from this war.  It cannot think it gained from this war.  And it cannot walk away thinking it was "ok" in anyway.  The punishment must be severe, not only to serve a level of justice, but to act as a deterrence to the next clown show that decides that just because they think they have a modern military does not mean they have full license to use it.  This is why I suspect the only way out of this is regime change in Russia itself (I will assess as HI probability - HI consequence).  We will never be able to renormalize with the current one, nor will it accept a zero-gain outcome.

The short term negotiation space is within the post 2014 territories to my eyes, but again this will ultimately be a pretty deeply debated and discussed issue both within Ukraine and amongst its partners.  And frankly that negotiation space is not even needed until the UA runs out of gas...and frankly I assess that as super-duper "LO" in the near future, quite the opposite.

We are starting to see western ground offensive equipment getting pushed in.  I have concerns over this which I have expressed before, but I suspect they could be indicators of advancing the timeline.  If the UA can integrate western equipped and trained units - so complete capability packages - that are designed for manoeuvre warfare, they are likely seeing opportunity to employ them this spring or summer.  I suspect we will see UA shaping operations to continue to corrode the RA and then maybe - and tank lovers will finally get their Xmas present late - we might see actual breakthrough battles, my money being on Melitopol.  E.G. I seriously doubt those 50 Bradleys are going to be penny packetted as glorified battle wagons for light infantry infiltration.

So What?  Well we are nowhere near Ukraine needed to concede or vie for peace on Russia terms.  This conflict is nowhere near frozen yet.

Edited January 6, 2023 by The_Capt

[Zeleban]

Message from Mashovets about Russian forces near Bakhmut

As of the evening of 01/05/2023, the grouping of enemy troops was deployed in the Bakhmut direction in the following composition:

- units and formations of the 2nd AK, including units of the mobilization reserve (MR) of this army corps (the main command post is deployed in the Slavyanoserbsk region)

- 2 MRBn 57th MRBr 5th CAA East MD

- 2 airborne battalion + 1 tactical artillery from the 51st, 137th infantry regiment and 1182nd artillery regiment of the 106th airborne division of the Airborne Forces

- consolidated detachments "BARS" (up to 5)

- assault squads of PMC "Wagner" (up to 4)

- consolidated tactical group op Special Forces "Akhmat" (up to 1.5 battalions)

The main effective force of the enemy in the Bakhmut direction remains the military formations of the 2nd AK, in particular:

 

- 2nd separate motorized rifle brigade (1,2,3 MRBn, 4 RBn, 11 separate territorial defense brigade of the 2224th and 2632nd rifle battalions of the mobilization reserve, Akhmat detachment (main unit), Wagner PMC, detachment "BARS" - 22)

- 7th separate motorized rifle brigade (1,2,3 MRBn, 4 RBn, 2736 RBn of the mobilization reserve, 12 and 16 separate brigade TrD, units of the 206th RR mobilization reserve, detachment "BARS" -6)

- 6th "named after Ataman Platov" Cossack separate motorized rifle regiment (1,2,3 MRBn, 4 RBn, 15 Br TrD, units of the 202nd RR mobilization reserve, PMC "Wagner / Liga", a separate detachment of Special Forces "Akhmat" (up to reinforced) company) from a separate regiment of Special Forces "Akhmat")

- units of the 208th regiment of the mobilization reserve, the 12th and 15th assault troops of the Wagner PMC operate as part of a separate tactical group

 

- direct artillery support for the actions of the army corps is carried out by up to 3-4 tactical groups of cannon and rocket artillery from the 10th abr of the 2nd AK

Also, it is worth noting that units of the 1st AK are also operating south of the Bakhmut direction (in the Zaitsevo-Shirokaya Balka section, units of the 3rd separate motorized rifle brigade of this corps operate).

[Huba]

51 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

We have about 15 IIRC 2A4s left, that's the most that can be reasonably expected. Rumors are though that the remaining ~200 PT91s went through overhauls and are ready to be sent.
In the meantime though, it looks like Finnish initiative is picking up pace:

 

[Zeleban]

In general, the enemy concentrated in the Bakhmut direction, in the sector from Belogorovka (upper) to the Kurdyumovka-Ozeryanovka area, up to 31-32 units of the BTG level battalion, of which at least 16-17 were deployed directly in the first line. Of course, almost half of them have a chronic understaffing of personnel, and the level of their combat capability, let's say, raises questions to a certain extent.

Nevertheless, in the near future, in all likelihood, this enemy grouping will include at least another 4 BTGr from the 2nd CAA East VO, as well as up to 2 BTGr from the 20th Motor Rifle Division ( most likely, they will replace a certain part of the battalions of the 2nd AK, including its 4th MRBr, which will be transferred, in turn, to the Liman direction).

It should also be borne in mind that up to 10-11 divisions (including separate fire platoons and batteries) of enemy cannon and rocket artillery are involved here.

Of the most interesting events in the Bakhmut direction in the first days of the new year, I would note three, in particular:

- north of Bakhmut, a certain noise arose in the radio of the enemy. As it turned out, part of the personnel of the 2nd MRBn of the 7th MRBr of the 2nd AK, as well as a certain part of the "Lugandian mobiles" from the 206th RR mobilization reserve, left their positions and command of the enemy without an order during 04-05.01 .2023 made a titanic effort to return them to their place ...

- also quite a significant revival of the enemy was caused by some active actions of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the direction of Verkhnekamennoye - LNPZ. Allegedly, the Armed Forces of Ukraine went on the offensive and the LPR troops from the 1st Bn of the 6th MRR immediately asked the high command for "any possible help", which caused the latter frank irritation.

- well, it was this grouping of the enemy that attacked the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine northeast of Soledar in the direction of Yakovlevka by the forces of the assault detachment of the Wagner PMC, supported by 2 companies, and was able to take 2 positions in this direction, creating certain difficulties for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the city of Soledar itself.

Directly in Bakhmut itself and to the north, in the first days of the new year, the enemy tried to gain a foothold west of Podgorodny and "strongly cling" (c) in the urban areas of the city of Bakhmut, in its eastern and southeastern outskirts.

Tough and stubborn battles continue in the Kleshchievka area, the enemy is clearly trying at any cost to break through at once in 2 sectors - actually through Kleshchievka, as well as between it and the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal. Obviously, the goal is to reach the area of Ivanovsky and Chasovoy Yar ... The situation here is rather complicated, in fact the enemy has already entered the road between Kleshchievka and Bakhmut and has the opportunity to try to bypass the city from the south.

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

Comments on the Marder IFV.
 

Quote

 

The most relevant version for Ukraine is most certainly the A3 model. In order to keep the Marder in use until 2030, there is an increase in combat effectiveness, which is only just coming up for the Bundeswehr with new optronics and engine, among other things.

The Marder was developed to replace the failed HS 30 and to compete with the then new Leopard 1 in the terrain. Although his mobility has dropped over the years due to the increase in weight, it is still very good. Of particular note when compared to eastern tanks is the reverse speed, which is almost identical to the forward speed. As a result, the position can be changed more quickly in firefights or delayed more effectively

The Marder's armor has been upgraded with the A3 variant to withstand 30x165mm ammunition from, among others, BMP-2, BMP-3 and BTR-82 at certain distances. But there are also newer 30mm ammunition with more power. The side armor is not that strong.

The Marder in the A3 variant has an unstabilized (!) 20x139mm cannon, a MG3 in coaxial arrangement and can fire a MILAN anti-tank guided missile from the commander's hatch (this takes see below) to fight main battle tanks. Newer variants can fire the much better Israeli Spike LR/MELLS missile, but Israel does not authorize exports.

The Marder fires sabot ammunition against armored targets and explosive incendiary against "soft targets". A double belt feeder allows you to quickly switch between the types of ammunition to always use the right type. However, the 20mm is very outdated and not stabilized, which means that fire from the move is an exception. Likewise, battle tanks cannot be fought head-on with this caliber, but armored personnel carriers, with the exception of the BMP-3, are no problem up to around 2,000m

The ergonomics are significantly better compared to Soviet armored personnel carriers and this means that you once again have the opportunity to fight through the hatches. So-called fight over the ship's side. This gives him a clear advantage in difficult terrain. Another benefit of ergonomics is faster dismounting (and generally a willingness to get into the vehicle and not ride behind or on top of it), which allows faster incursions into enemy positions.

Due to the short cannon, which does not protrude over the hull, it can be aimed freely in all directions even in narrow terrain without the risk of bumping into anything (in contrast to the Puma with the 30mm cough cough). So very well suited for local and forest combat

But the most important advantage is: It is delivered. The Bundeswehr and other countries still have a large number of Marders that can be supplied if necessary, in contrast to many other armored personnel carriers in Europe such as the Warrior and CV90. Since the Marder is still in use, there are still enough spare parts, ammunition, mechanics and trainers to take care of it. In the same way, the Bundeswehr has already introduced the successor and can therefore, as with the AMX-10 RC, deliver material if a replacement is procured.

The Marder impresses above all with its number, availability, mobility, armor and ergonomics. But has deficits in its main armament due to its age and in its anti-tank capability due to the blockade of Israel.

After almost half a century, the Marder is now being used for what it was developed and built for. Although the decision to deliver took far too long and wasted time, the first step has now been taken.

 

https://twitter.com/KampfmitKette/status/1611094917983490074

 

[Huba]

Looks like M109s will be part of the new arms package. Looking forward to the actual announcements:

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

Slightly less useful comments on the T-90M.

 

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Your faith in the intelligence community and scenario analysis is actually refreshing

Family values.

[The_MonkeyKing]

Germans are getting fast.

[Zeleban]

 

A very bold and senseless attack

[Zeleban]

A good demonstration of how effectively one sniper can suppress an entire squad

[Zeleban]

Soledar

[sburke]

15 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Soledar

was that "when the saints come marching in"?  

 

 

[Zeleban]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

was that "when the saints come marching in"?  

yes, but in a soldierly manner. He sings "When a Soldier Goes on the Campaign"

[cesmonkey]

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3261263/more-than-3-billion-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Quote

Capabilities in this package include:

• 50 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles with 500 TOW anti-tank missiles and 250,000 rounds of 25mm ammunition;
• 100 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
• 55 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPs);
• 138 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
• 18 155mm self-propelled Howitzers and 18 ammunition support vehicles;
• 70,000 155mm artillery rounds; 
• 500 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds;
• 1,200 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems;
• 36 105mm towed Howitzers and 95,000 105mm artillery rounds;
• 10,000 120mm mortar rounds;
• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• RIM-7 missiles for air defense;
• 4,000 Zuni aircraft rockets; 
• Approximately 2,000 anti-armor rockets;
• Sniper rifles, machine guns, and ammunition for grenade launchers and small arms;
• Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
• Night vision devices and optics;
• Spare parts and other field equipment. 

 

[MikeyD]

Poland has already received its first shipment of ten K2 Korean MBTs and 29 K9 mobile howitzers, part of a VERY large procurement order. One assumes they're replacement items to make up the difference for what's been donated to Ukraine. One could call K2 a western equivalent of T90, compact, 3 man crew with autoloader, all the bells-and-whistles.

[The_MonkeyKing]

19 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3261263/more-than-3-billion-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

 

I wonder what type are the 25mm APFSDS-T ammo. Does US even have non-uranium options in any quantity?

[Huba]

1 hour ago, MikeyD said:

Poland has already received its first shipment of ten K2 Korean MBTs and 29 K9 mobile howitzers, part of a VERY large procurement order. One assumes they're replacement items to make up the difference for what's been donated to Ukraine. One could call K2 a western equivalent of T90, compact, 3 man crew with autoloader, all the bells-and-whistles.

True, but it will take till 2025 to deliver all 180 - and it's still less than 240 Leo2 or PT91s. The only way to speed things up would be to acquire even more M1s, on to of the already ordered 360. 
There's a press conference of our PM and MoD scheduled for tomorrow in one of the air bases - everyone is expecting some rather big announcements, quite possibly we'll know then.

Edit: more probably, we'll learn that our Mig-29s (modernized during the last 6 months, probably integrated with JDAMs and some other goodies) will be handled to the Ukrainians.

Edited January 6, 2023 by Huba

[Huba]

New UA estimate of RU missile stocks. IF it is true, then they are practically out, having enough for maybe 2 more barrages, after which they will be literally empty. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

Confirmed ukr getting M2A2 Bradley and M109A6 Paladin.

Going to be trained with this equipment on battalion scale. Maybe the Leo2 will also show up as armored element for these formations.

 

Exact variant sources:

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1611447761966362624?s=20&t=uNG0t1RjLhdXzo-exQt-JA

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1611454946586812418?s=20&t=uNG0t1RjLhdXzo-exQt-JA

[FancyCat]

Hopefully, Ukraine can counterattack in Soledar, but how important can it be? Also, isn’t it like completely leveled? At some point it might be cost prohibitive to keep defending it. If a counterattack occurs, it would be once it gets colder right? 

Best of luck to all Ukrainians, I hope you get thru the cold as good as possible.

[Beleg85]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Dear gawd, if you take away the MacGuffin popular fiction will implode!  

Is Fundation that popular nowadays? I don't thnik so, it's one the books that is formally canonicall to every scifi fan but seem to be less read than people claim. Anyway, Asimov actually used real sub-humanistic scholarschip genre name to create his own McGuffin:

https://psychohistory.com/

This way of writing history spectacularly failed already at 70-80's, either. Due to inherent dynamism of human world. So not every McGuffin is worth another McGuffin

5 hours ago, Twisk said:

I believe this counts U.S. civilian deaths from Japanese internment but yes.

Ukraine's east is likely to be both financial and population denuded (refugees, people caught under Russian occupation, people killed by Russians, etc...). But if the war continues for another 3 months or another 12 that is going to remain true so those losses are built in. The war ending sooner will allow those areas currently in the conflict zone to begin their recovery but it seems that most of the wars "optional" casualties are being drawn from unoccupied Ukraine.

Assuming Ukraine has lost U.S. WW2 equivalent KIA already of 130.000 over the last ~12 months they could sustain the same loss rate for nearly another 24 months before hitting the British WW2 equivalent KIA. I'm unfamiliar with British post-war culture but I suspect they are still far and away from the devastation that Italy, Germany, and the USSR experienced where 1% and greater losses were realized.

There is fundamental material and psychological difference between countries waging wars on their own turf, and those who send expeditionary forces oversees, that's why I don't think comparisions to US in WWII are valid in any way for current conflict (even Civil War would actually serve us better here) nor afterwards- 1950's generation profited immensly from fantastic position US industry obtained after the war, which Ukraine will not have. UK example is more interesting, they were bombed by enemy airforce after all, but again- Wehrmacht boots never touched British soil, except Channel Islands. And they had entire might of British Commonwealth working for them, which is luxury very few states in era of Total Industrial warfare had.  Germany, Italy and USSR serve much better examples when comes to destruction, but every one is much different -they were totalitarian attackers and Empires, even fascist Italy- which Ukraine is neither.

But generally thinking about war in Atlantic world is different than in continental Europe, especially East of Odra river. War is considered absolute destruction, madness of absurd proportions taking crushing toll on material being and on broken societal relations here, not Machiavellic tool of politics, something that one can choose and end just like that. It's end of the world for entire generation (we had Lost Generation, like many neighours, not Greatest one), so even victorious conflict has extremelly bitter taste. Just look at the ruins and changed landscape. It's not even Polish thing, ask Balts, Czechs, Hungarians, Ukrainians or anybody else from the region and they will collectivelly have roughly similar image. Let's hope this one indeed will be perceived differently.

Edited January 6, 2023 by Beleg85