How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BlackMoria]

I found this interesting youtube video by Peter Zeihan about Russian overall motivations, economics and perhaps a view of what is to come.   I found it very interesting.  Zeihan sounds like knows what he is talking about, so I thought I would share.  

 

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

He just insulted one of the greatest wartime leaders in modern history, fighting against a murderous Fascist state.  Even if he is against the spending for the right reasons, just look at the scorn, the derision, the (dare I say) hatred that Carlson showed for Zelensky.  And if you don't think I've hit the nail on the head, look at the other things he said:

"The point of today's visit to Washington was not to make the world more stable or make wise decisions, much less to help America. That's always at the bottom of the list. The point was to fawn over the Ukrainian strip club manager and hand him billions more dollars from our own crumbling economy."

Here is conciliatory idea for this apparently extremely pressing issue with Zelensky's formal attire, that whould be a win-win situation for anyone:

https://pl.pinterest.com/pin/872642865279525916/?mt=login

Edited December 23, 2022 by Beleg85

[Vergeltungswaffe]

Nope, not worth it...nevermind

Edited December 23, 2022 by Vergeltungswaffe

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, LukeFF said:

Well, since you went there, Steve...

See, here's the problem.  I did not go to where you just went...

2 hours ago, LukeFF said:

What I am outraged about is that we continue to spend billions upon billions on a foreign war and that our duly elected representatives "agreed" on a 4155 page spending bill in the middle of the night, right before the Christmas recess that no one outside of the few who drafted up the monstrosity are ever going to read. All this while the economy, infrastructure, etc., here at home has ongoing serious problems, to say nothing of the way our own vets continue to be shafted by the utterly idiotic way the VA administration is run.

The horrible way Congress (both parties) handles national spending is a travesty EVERY year and has nothing to do with this war.  The VA has been a mess for decades.  The economy goes up and down for complex reasons.  Cutting out every penny of spending on Ukraine wouldn't fix any of this, because these problems have been around before the war and will be around after.  So how is this relevant to the war?

2 hours ago, LukeFF said:

Yes, but let's get all riled up over what someone said on Fox News! The horror! You know what I do when I see the same sort of nonsense on MSNBC, CNN, the NYT, or WaPo? I laugh and move on. It's not worth the time.

It isn't about Fox.  It's about the pro-Putin suckup they have spouting off on their airwaves.  If MSNBC, CNN, NYT, or WaPo had anybody similar, then I'd level the same criticism.  I haven't seen one there, so I guess I've missed something.

And I think powerful people that are working against America's and the West's interests should not be laughed at.  Criticizing a Russian propagandist shouldn't be taboo, no matter where he/she should appear.

Steve

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

I found this interesting youtube video by Peter Zeihan about Russian overall motivations, economics and perhaps a view of what is to come.   I found it very interesting.  Zeihan sounds like knows what he is talking about, so I thought I would share.  

It seems he has many facts not exactly straight. Not ignoring suffering any single one of them, but number of 250k Ukrainian civilians killed seems way too high, and info about AFU capturing more vehicles at Izyum than NATO supplied to them is also probably highly exaggarated. Zeihan is very talented speaker, but he has tendency to be charrypeaking info that supports his views.

However, his concern about environmental disaster cause of this fleet of Russian rusty tankers recargoing at sea to circumvent sanctions is very good point. As well as crude oil stopping in pipelines due to weather- it is curious if Russians can figure out response to this problem somehow, as they partially did with their fleet of transport civilian planes that theoretically should being already grounded yet are still largely flying. Many inventive ways they can circumvent sanctions would require separate long video on its own.

 

A thread for memory, capturing most iconic photos of this war. Worth to remember them especially by us, who have luck to live in countries untouched by war, while we will tomorrow sat at Christmas tables (note some are very brutal and unblurred):

 

Edited December 24, 2022 by Beleg85

[kevinkin]

Look, once again, prime time cable news is just entertainment TV. It has zero influence. It spews to people that liked to be spewed too, as long as they already agree with what is being spewed to them. ECHO ... ECHO ... ECHO

The corporate leaders of each network know that. Nothing like a captive audience that delivers sustained and predictable revenue. What TC said was as predicable as the sun rising and setting. Pro wrestling has more twists and turns than the prime time cable news shows. And we all know it's staged. 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Well here again, instead of spluttering in outrage, I just keep nosing through Their sources periodically. Just to see whether there's anything They are seeing that We have somehow missed.  They! They!

(and then post some memes)

...But nope, so far it all seems to trace back to the same claque of raving lunatics (Helmer), Hate America/The Empire Firsters (Moon of AL, Greenwald) and stubborn  permacontrarians (MacGregor), all cross-citing one another or 'citing' sources (e.g. Indian bloggers) that ultimately trace back to Russian pronouncements.

****

But where's our Collapse @The_Capt sir? You promised Collapse? You Promised!

 

[Battlefront.com]

45 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Look, once again, prime time cable news is just entertainment TV. It has zero influence. It spews to people that liked to be spewed too, as long as they already agree with what is being spewed to them. ECHO ... ECHO ... ECHO

I disagree.  It is an echo chamber, but there is no echo if there is no voice to get it started.

45 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

The corporate leaders of each network know that. Nothing like a captive audience that delivers sustained and predictable revenue. What TC said was as predicable as the sun rising and setting. Pro wrestling has more twists and turns than the prime time cable news shows. And we all know it's staged.

Yes, we (meaning us here) do.  I hope so anyway.  However, I can say that the people I've experienced spouting off these sorts of talking points to me, in person, don't seem to think it's staged.  They believe it to be true because they heard it on the radio or on TV.

In any case, I don't see why posting something on topic from Solovyov here gets one reaction while posting something on topic from Tucker Carlson gets a completely different one.  Especially since, not surprisingly, Carlson is now being rebroadcasted and congratulated on Russia TV for his insults against Zelensky:

War takes many forms and information is one of them.  Carlson is playing for the wrong team.

Steve

[FancyCat]

I was under the impression that the main reason stuff never gets fixed like economy or infrastructure is there isn't one agreed upon way to fix it and there isn't a majority enough to decide upon one way of attempting to resolve it.

Also it's really goddamn cheap all things considered. Consider if Russia had successfully annexed Ukraine? Not only would a emboldened Russia sit on NATO's eastern flank, China would undoubtedly be more confident of pressing against Taiwan. A U.S forced again to defend Europe and Asia is way more expensive than a scenario where Poland and Ukraine in the future could handle a Russian resurgence or flare up while the U.S focuses on Asia.

 

 

Edited December 24, 2022 by FancyCat

[Battlefront.com]

Listened to this today.  It's a very good overview of what's going on and some good analysis of what's going on with Putin specifically.  A lot of it has been discussed here already, so good to know that once again we have a high quality group.

https://www.mainepublic.org/show/2-pm-public-affairs-programs/2022-12-19/speaking-in-maine-mid-coast-forum-on-foreign-relations-putins-war-ramifications-and-response (WMEH - Permalink) 2

The presenter is Steven Pifer.  Interestingly he is one of the people that helped negotiate the Budapest Memorandum and he had some very interesting things to say about that.  Especially relevant given a few pages ago we were discussing what it is and isn't.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I was under the impression that the main reason stuff never gets fixed like economy or infrastructure is there isn't one agreed upon way to fix it and there isn't a majority enough to decide upon one way of attempting to resolve it.

Also it's really goddamn cheap all things considered. Consider if Russia had successfully annexed Ukraine? Not only would a emboldened Russia sit on NATO's eastern flank, China would undoubtedly be more confident of pressing against Taiwan. A U.S forced again to defend Europe and Asia is way more expensive than a scenario where Poland and Ukraine in the future could handle a Russian resurgence or flare up while the U.S focuses on Asia.

 

 

Yes, very cheap.  It also has cost the US nothing in terms of blood and much of the treasure is going into American companies producing things in the United States.  Therefore, quite a big chunk of the aid money is never leaving the boundaries of the US economy.

I also find it infuriating that some of the same people who say we shouldn't spend money on Ukraine because we have other economic priorities then say we should be doing everything we can to support Taiwan.  The same people also say we shouldn't do anything to piss off Russia lest he drops the bomb, but then say we should do everything in our power to confront the Chinese menace without even mentioning that they have the bomb as well.  Really isn't difficult to peel back the rhetoric and see that there's extremely different standards being applied.

BTW, the link I just posted to the Steven Pifer discussion starts out with him saying that China is the biggest long term threat to US national interests.  Then he goes on to explain why that shouldn't mean ignoring the single biggest short term and second biggest long term threat to US national interests.

Steve

[JonS]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Carlson is now being rebroadcasted and congratulated on Russia TV ...

... again.

His parents must be so proud of what they created.

[dan/california]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I disagree.  It is an echo chamber, but there is no echo if there is no voice to get it started.

Yes, we (meaning us here) do.  I hope so anyway.  However, I can say that the people I've experienced spouting off these sorts of talking points to me, in person, don't seem to think it's staged.  They believe it to be true because they heard it on the radio or on TV.

In any case, I don't see why posting something on topic from Solovyov here gets one reaction while posting something on topic from Tucker Carlson gets a completely different one.  Especially since, not surprisingly, Carlson is now being rebroadcasted and congratulated on Russia TV for his insults against Zelensky:

War takes many forms and information is one of them.  Carlson is playing for the wrong team.

Steve

Just remember that Carlson has a boss that could pull him off the air with a phone call, and hasn't.

[JonS]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I also find it infuriating that some of the same people who say we shouldn't spend money on Ukraine because we have other economic priorities then say we should be doing everything we can to support Taiwan. 

You know as well as I that were the US supporting Taiwan remotely in a hot war with China (that is, in the way Ukraine is being supported now), then those ... people would abruptly pivot and be screaming to cut Taiwan loose.

Edited December 24, 2022 by JonS

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Well here again, instead of spluttering in outrage, I just keep nosing through Their sources periodically. Just to see whether there's anything They are seeing that We have somehow missed.  They! They!

(and then post some memes)

...But nope, so far it all seems to trace back to the same claque of raving lunatics (Helmer), Hate America/The Empire Firsters (Moon of AL, Greenwald) and stubborn  permacontrarians (MacGregor), all cross-citing one another or 'citing' sources (e.g. Indian bloggers) that ultimately trace back to Russian pronouncements.

****

But where's our Collapse @The_Capt sir? You promised Collapse? You Promised!

 

Putin is has pulled levers we weren't even sure he had, and then pulled them again. This has forestalled collapse, but only forestalled it. Every one of those levers though make the eventual collapse worse. Every time those levers are pulled the inevitable collapse gets worse. Every former taxpayer turned into Ukrainian fertilizer, or a crippled lifetime drain on the Russian state, is one more brick pulled out of an already rickety wall. Every international economic and technical relationship that severed will take a generation to rebuild, and will have to be enticed back with massive discounts. We won't even discuss blowing up their own gas pipelines. When Putin finally pulls a lever and it comes off in his hand things are going to crash so hard there won't be anything left but powder.

Edited December 24, 2022 by dan/california

[LongLeftFlank]

Pat Lang, stalwart conservative and no fan of JRB 46 (albeit no fan of DJT 45 either), has been onside from the start.

https://turcopolier.com/the-story-of-carol-of-the-bells-a-christmas-classic-born-in-ukraine-ttg/

 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

 

I already used that meme in another thread,  you dastardly hound. Stay in thy lane,  suh! 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Well here again, instead of spluttering in outrage, I just keep nosing through Their sources periodically. Just to see whether there's anything They are seeing that We have somehow missed.  They! They!

(and then post some memes)

...But nope, so far it all seems to trace back to the same claque of raving lunatics (Helmer), Hate America/The Empire Firsters (Moon of AL, Greenwald) and stubborn  permacontrarians (MacGregor), all cross-citing one another or 'citing' sources (e.g. Indian bloggers) that ultimately trace back to Russian pronouncements.

****

But where's our Collapse @The_Capt sir? You promised Collapse? You Promised!

 

You greedy glutton, we have had three operational ones in 10 months, but your  bottomless gullets wants more?!

Things go slow, until they go fast.

[LongLeftFlank]

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You greedy glutton, we have had three operational ones in 10 months, but your  bottomless gullets wants more?!

Things go slow, until they go fast.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

I already used that meme in another thread, you dastardly hound. Stay in thy lane, suh!

 

Ho ho ho, Xmas memes for everybody!!!!

 

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

but there is no echo if there is no voice to get it started.

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

TC couldn't start a lawn mower. Russian TV pointing to him shows again how desperate their people are for self-vindication and a weird form of hope. Sort of like Americans who watch prime time CNN, MSNBC and Fox. TC is no Charles Lindbergh. At least Chuck had a resume.  

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

TC couldn't start a lawn mower.

Probably not, but then again he doesn't get paid $10m a year to mow lawns.

29 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Russian TV pointing to him shows again how desperate their people are for self-vindication and a weird form of hope. Sort of like Americans who watch prime time CNN, MSNBC and Fox. TC is no Charles Lindbergh. At least Chuck had a resume.  

No, but he has a much bigger megaphone.

As I said, it is worth noting what the propagandists are saying as it gives an indication as to what their followers are up to.  Looking at what the Russian clowns are saying is instructive.  The same goes for Western mouthpieces.  Even if you don't think the messenger is of particular concern, underestimating the effects of the message isn't a good idea.  Case in point... I used to think Q-Anon could be ignored or laughed off.  Then followers started getting elected into public offices.

Steve

[Simcoe]

26 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

TC couldn't start a lawn mower. Russian TV pointing to him shows again how desperate their people are for self-vindication and a weird form of hope. Sort of like Americans who watch prime time CNN, MSNBC and Fox. TC is no Charles Lindbergh. At least Chuck had a resume.  

Tired of this both sides nonsense. The sickness comes from one network, one party. One party is pushing Putin propaganda, one party tried to overthrow the government. It wasn't CNN, it wasn't the Democrats.

[MikeyD]

TC is no Charles Lindberg. Charles Lindberg never publicly agitated for the violent overthrow of the US government.

[kevinkin]

I don't watch much TV now (just sports), but did TC actually "publicly agitated for the violent overthrow of the US government." If so, was it just a bad joke. He is well known for them. Even if he was serious, his lawn mower brigade would never make it out of the garage. No threat to anything but the BMW parked in the driveway.