How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Offshoot]

25 minutes ago, akd said:

I’m beginning to think there might be something wrong with this country…

 

"this propaganda video tells Russian men the real reason why they should sign up to fight in Ukraine: so they can buy their teenage daughter a new smartphone"

What does he mean "buy"?

[sburke]

19 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Thanks! Those would be keyboard commands, yes? I’m using a tablet - no keyboard- which might be why the options are fewer. But thanks! Might be some alternative, although I can always just copy, paste and use quotes to indicate. Like I have been doing. But definitely not as slick looking.

I think that is why you see different tools as well.  Have heard that from another user.

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, sburke said:

I think that is why you see different tools as well.  Have heard that from another user.

I also lack the quote button, and I'm on a laptop.

Could swear I used to have that button though.

[NamEndedAllen]

5 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

Imagine how the Poles are angry with the words "Glory to Ukraine, glory to the heroes" After all, this is a greeting from the OUN-UPA. Moreover, these words are increasingly spoken by leading world politicians and international figures.

“The past is never dead. It isn’t even past.”

-Faulkner

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

I think that is why you see different tools as well.  Have heard that from another user.

Thanks! Somewhat better than even more evidence my brain is turning into grey goo and oatmeal. Or worse.

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, akd said:

I’m beginning to think there might be something wrong with this country…

 

Wait! His motivation is actually rather sane, at least it’s tied to reality!! Might not be the wisest decision with regard to a cost/benefit analysis, but still…assuming of course he HAS a daughter.

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Wait! His motivation is actually rather sane, at least it’s tied to reality!! Might not be the wisest decision with regard to a cost/benefit analysis, but still…assuming of course he HAS a daughter.

Worth pointing out that the Russians are desperate enough to actively recruit middle aged men with families. They always make the best soldiers right?

[Beleg85]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This sort of brazen disruption attack looks great because, as far as we can see, it went well.  But how many times have they tried this and done something like hit a mine or got whacked by an RPG or were surprised to find the defenders knew they were coming?  We've seen those videos too.

Steve

Definitelly the case here, and one of reasons why we need to supply Ukrainians with something better than old soviet crap or light Humvees. If tanks are not possible, at least fleet of modern APC's or IFV's is badly needed addition to their military. Recently I heared the story here of one Ukrainian medic who drove down into forward trenches in his unarmoured ambulance, collected, stabilized and transported several wounded soldiers and drove back. All while he was 50 m from Muscovites storming other side of the trench in the same bloody time. Not need to add they didn't care if he was a medic. Really harrowing stories.

Btw. Today Shoigu reportedly inspected his poor troops..from the helicopter.

This face...

Also tomorrow Putin is going to visit Minsk. Some Belarus observers suggest a lot of things may depend on this visit.

[sburke]

52 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Btw. Today Shoigu reportedly inspected his poor troops..from the helicopter.

This face...

Also tomorrow Putin is going to visit Minsk. Some Belarus observers suggest a lot of things may depend on this visit.

I seriously doubt he was in a helo anywhere near the frontlines.

[billbindc]

9 minutes ago, sburke said:

I seriously doubt he was in a helo anywhere near the frontlines.

Of course not. Not a single shell hole.

[LongLeftFlank]

Anime take on the drone p^rn.... 

 

 

[sburke]

59 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Of course not. Not a single shell hole.

didn't even watch the video.  I'd be surprised if Shoigu was even outside the Moscow city limits.  Flying over a conscript "recruitment" base is more like it.

[FancyCat]

 

 

[dan/california]

https://researchcentre.army.gov.au/sites/default/files/Spotlight_Brief_3_22_Russo-Ukraine Lessons Learnt_accessible_reduced.pdf

The style is a bit dry, but it is an excellent article. Has some excellent and detailed Russian TO&Es.

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Yes, they were, and some still cannot force themselves to reciprocate it- for example TV anchors here simply couldn't spell second part "glory to the heroes" for first months when interviewing their Ukrainian guests, who were probably blisfully unaware of the slogan's origin and what it means for Poles. Many here still can't, especially that ethnonationalistic cancer is unfortunatelly real, alive and growing among population of Western Ukraine. A lot of work need to be done on Ukrainian historical identity, and I am not sure if our current strategy of "leave it for later, now they suffer because of war and have other things than discussion about a past" is actually right one, given that this war is formative period for Ukraine state and society.

Still, some symbols change their meaning in time. People do not associate "heroiom slava" slogan with genocidal nationalisms anymore (usually narration of slogan as associated with Sicz's Rifles comes in handy), and they can even tolerate these "Blood and Soil" black-red flags if going to Ukraine with help. However, you can agree that supplying people at your own expense who venerate absolutelly genocidal morons who barely 80 years earlier would cut their throats for just being Poles (or Jews, Hungarians or any other) resonates with very strange vibes among people doing charity work?

Yup, some of historians here associate it with "Sicz Rifles" (not exactly correctly, but that is minor issue), just as famous Chervona Kalyna, which Russian trolls here also tried to sell as "UPA song", fortunatelly ineffectively.

Ok Haiduk it is not against you or other folks here, just a food for thought about future of your country and national identity. I am fully aware of many wrongdoings on Polish side in the past as well, I really attended several dozens conferences on these topics in my 12-year long historical career and heard zilion of arguments from both Polish and Ukrainian historians of the topic (even stopped two who wanted to smash each other faces in my student's years...), so believe me- I get basic facts around Ukrainian nationalism and there are probably not many things you can surprise me on it.

The question is if collectivelly Ukrainians really want this kind of hatred to be cherished for another generations- because that will be effect of tolerating OUN/UPA heritage in your public spaces. There will be some day when society will need to grasp bull by the horns and stand in truth about genocidal past of this organization (and large part of population in Western Ukraine, who were forced or otherwise encouraged by UPA to participate in it), without whitewashing, victim-blaming and doing endless circles around basic obvious facts (mirroring what Russians do with their own narrations), which is sadly situation now among many Ukrainian historians, with several exceptions (perhaps ironically- mostly from Eastern Ukraine, where they can approach topic without bias). And facts are indeed brutal- probably 50-80 k innocent people were ruthlessly murdered in one of worst cases of targeted genocide, in already harsh times of WWII. Rwanda style, with machette, axe and scythe- not some impersonal "industry of death" like projected by Germans for Jews. It was personal, it was long-planned, targeted and executed by the same people who are now fast becoming symbols of Ukrainian statehood. I really don't care what UPA become in Ukrainian national mythology after these events, because it will always inherently be bases on false premises. There is no place among civilized people for narrations supporting such guys.

I would even say in the future your attitude to OUN/UPA will be a major test if you really want to collectivelly be part of Western hemisphere or prefer to stay inside never-ending cycle of lies like Russians. We did our job on many unpleasant and shameful episodes from our collective past, still not enough of it, but I can wholeheartadly say it is always beneficial for society in long run. Germans serve great example here.

As a guy with a history degree and has spent most of my years studying the causes and results of conflict in modern Europe, I feel it is important to thank you for your contribution to this touchy subject.  Well informed and presented, but academically detached from the emotional aspects of the subject matter.  It's important and I appreciate your position, as an informed Pole and neighbor of Ukraine, that you see hope in the future instead of fear or worse. 

Watching your two countries work together has been one of the most inspiring parts of the international response in my view.  Patience and understanding will lead you to a better future for all.  I understand and practice this myself whenever I see a neighbor driving a truck or adorning his porch with the symbol of traitors who pursued a bloody insurrection in order to maintain slavery.  Only a few really support the values the symbol really represents, instead they have fallen victim to a deliberate century's long disinformation campaign that it represents "freedom". 

I don't expect Ukraine to get their history "right" all at once and all to the same degree in order to take a place amongst the countries of the West.  But I do expect them to move in that direction.  I have faith they will as I see yet more de-Sovietization happening as a result of this war.  If they can reject glorifying their recent horrors now that they know the truth, they have what it takes to reject their more distant horrors.

Steve

[dan/california]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/15/russia-ukraine-war-mobilization-putin-attack/

The author seems to think Russia can keep doing what it is doing for quite some time. Including further rounds of mobilization and 500 kia a day becoming the new minimum. There is going to be a little test of that theory this winter...

 

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

If this turns out to be true, Russian civil society will break down pretty quickly generally, though in different ways and to different degrees from place to place.  The previous mobilization already showed little-to-no attention paid to exemptions for critical workers, instead focusing on quotas and bribes to determine outcome.  Now they are thinking of getting rid of even the pretense of selective conscription?  Why?  Because they've run out of easy targets.

Russia is no different than any other industrialized country in terms of the redundancies in their workforce.  In fact, the demographics are even worse in Russia than many other countries.  The war has made this VASTLY worse by scaring away millions of foreign workers and educated/trained young people. 

What is going to happen when they take Yuri, the only guy who knows how the wastewater treatment pumps work, and get him killed in Ukraine?  The pumps will stop working, eventually, and Sergei (the guy who didn't get mobilized) will have to learn on the job how to fix them.  Provided there's a factory to make it and a driver to deliver it.

The partial mobilization and exodus we've seen so far has already created situations like I just described.  What will yanking another couple hundred thousands men out of their jobs look like?  Bad.  Really bad.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Lukashenko certainly doesn't sound like he's about to cave to Putin's desire to widen the war with Belarusian troops:

Quote

“I would like to emphasize this feature once again: no one, except us, governs Belarus,” Lukashenko said, according to remarks published by the presidential press service. “We must always proceed from the fact that we are a sovereign state and independent.”

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3780024-belarus-leader-says-situation-escalating-ahead-of-rare-putin-visit/

Steve

[Zeleban]

9 hours ago, FancyCat said:

I’m not worried about Ukraine, their civil society seems strong enough to keep pushing in the right direction, the EU is and will continue to be a powerful orientation point. The reproachment by both Poland and Ukraine will continue. S-300 destroyed in Kherson seemingly by Russian friendly fire, then became Russian properly destroying their equipment before leaving, more info uncovered in the tweet thread.

 

 

These are old Ukrainian S-300s captured by the Russians during the occupation of Crimea. This can be seen from the old faded camouflage. It is assumed that the Russians brought them from the Crimea as decoys. Or for shelling ground targets

[Bulletpoint]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

If this turns out to be true, Russian civil society will break down pretty quickly generally, though in different ways and to different degrees from place to place.  The previous mobilization already showed little-to-no attention paid to exemptions for critical workers, instead focusing on quotas and bribes to determine outcome.  Now they are thinking of getting rid of even the pretense of selective conscription?  Why?  Because they've run out of easy targets.

I'm puzzled why they would conscript firefighters etc. for the war. Surely they must still have vast resources when it comes to manpower at least. Even after the exodus.

I remember hearing recently that Russia has 450,000 inmates in their prison system - I doubt they are finished recruiting there yet?

And vast numbers of other poor and disadvantaged Russian men of various ages. I don't think Putin is going to limit himself to just the young, fit, healthy ones.

[Offshoot]

An article on the development of Delta software by the Ukrainians for visualizing the battle field alongside the development of the Ukrainian armed forces from it's Soviet beginnings.

"Delta software developed to help collect and disseminate information about enemy’s movements" - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/18/our-weapons-are-computers-ukrainian-coders-aim-to-gain-battlefield-edge

"That change has been a struggle. The Ukrainian army grew out of its Soviet predecessors, and many of its older officers have been shaped by that experience. In 2020, the generals even shut down the Aerorozvidka unit; it was only restored by the defence ministry as the innovation centre months before the Russian all-out invasion.

The Donbas front is the last to establish its own situational awareness centre, in part because of resistance within the army, and as a result it has suffered most from lack of coordination and friendly fire, officials from the innovation centre argued. “It’s been total chaos,” one official said.

“I don’t think they’re quite there yet,” said Nick Reynolds, a land warfare analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “There are some centres of excellence within the Ukrainian armed forces, but it’s not blanket. The military culture imposed under the Soviet Union casts a very long shadow.”

However, Reynolds said the Ukrainians were far ahead of Russian forces in making their forces more connected and agile. “Ultimately, the Russian side has not fundamentally changed their structures or practices. They have some level of technological enablement, but on the human level they are still very Soviet.”"

Edited December 19, 2022 by Offshoot

[FancyCat]

One of the 3 people arrested in Albania a few months ago, looks like she is a spy if Russia is making **** up to try and get her back.

 

 

[Kinophile]

12 hours ago, billbindc said:

Of course not. Not a single shell hole.

Exactly.  I wonder if anyone has geo located this flight yet... 

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Exactly.  I wonder if anyone has geo located this flight yet... 

There's nothing to geolocate there - the video is edited from separate shots of him in the cabin, and views of the ground. Not on one you can see Shoigu AND anything going on outside the cabin. This video is as fake as it can get.

[akd]

9 hours ago, dan/california said:

Has some excellent and detailed Russian TO&Es.

I wouldn’t call these excellent.