How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

11 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Just a little military humor.

You understand folks that such little military humour makes no little harm to your cause, right?

Just like some military people openly parading with portraits of massive murderer Shuchevycz or those stupid songs about "our father Bandera" that even half-official Twitter accounts are absolutelly not shy of. I get it is very difficult to controll such big volunteer military, but I frankly heard several stories from our volunteers supplying soldiers at the front of some brigade commanders (chiefly 28th, but also 57th, 58th, 92nd + some at northern fronts) not giving a fook if they soldiers openly wear nazi, Wehrmacht, OUN/UPA or other ethnonationalistic symbolic. Russian propaganda aside, we already saw way too many examples of this **** during capture of Kherson and at Bakhmut.

 

Ok, to change the mood:

 

Edited December 17, 2022 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

6 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

This a good long read and worthwhile, thanks.

Surprising to me that Russian troop morale is holding up sufficiently to hold a front line of a few hundred kilometres and keep on attacking daily with heavy losses.  While propagandists in Moscow talk passionately about defending the motherland against Nato, surely the soldiers on the ground are able to see through the rhetoric.  Why should they continue to risk their lives for Putin’s mad dreams of conquest?

At the beginning of this war many people thought that Russian morale would not survive contact with reality, retreats would turn into routs, and surrenders would be large scale.  The Russian homefront would turn against the war and maybe, even, change might start in Russia itself.  It has not happened.

There is a worthwhile article in the UK Guardian today by Timothy Garton Ash

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/dec/17/ukraine-greatest-threat-russian-world-vladimir-putin

According to Timothy, Russia is disintegrating.

None of the neighbours, including Ukraine, will sleep soundly until Russian hearts and minds change, beginning with those soldiers in the front lines who are continuing to die rather than surrender.  I just don't get it.  If Ukraine can win over the Russians doing the fighting then the war will end quickly - forget Wagner, they are just there for the money ... 

There was a suggestion I read somewhere about the apologia for the Soviet Union reaching such levels and deeply in Russia that it has impacted Russian military and political thinking, including being fine with ideas such as the massed human wave tactics and loss of life that is popular perception of the early stages of the WW2 eastern front. 

Unnervingly it seems to be coming true than mere lies. Russia will lose but Ukrainians will die much more as well, and Russians too tho I have less sympathy for them.

 

[sburke]

Putin's vow to cut off Russian oil for G7 price-cap buyers is cracking, going by these 7 India-bound cargoes (yahoo.com)

[FancyCat]

33 minutes ago, sburke said:

Putin's vow to cut off Russian oil for G7 price-cap buyers is cracking, going by these 7 India-bound cargoes (yahoo.com)

Why wouldn’t buyers of Russian oil be unhappy forcing Russia to sell oil for cheaper, is something I don’t see critics of the oil cap addressing, absolute fools. It’s totally in China and India’s interest to get Russian oil as cheap as possible. 

[dan/california]

21 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

1. So about that upcoming winter offensive.

 

2. Mobiks gonna be mighty uncomfortable after sunset. And the Ukies may be able to smell them from a distance.

3. For the CMBS2 terrain files. Urban ground tiles gonna need a lot more ambient litter: paper, plastic, wood scrap.

 

The guy at 14 seconds into the second video will a weather casualty by morning. He looks like he is wearing some sort of cheap sweatpants. I am assuming they are spending the night in the open. It isn't AS bad if they have a half wrecked village to hide in. Absolutely none of their foot wear looks up to the task either.

[FancyCat]

Mind you, as painful as it is to see trade flowing and Russia benefiting, end of the day, it is vital that Russian oil and gas be exported, else it drives heavier inflation and instability for the world’s poorest countries. The key is to force Putin to sell gas and oil as cheaply as possible while ensuring that its worth it for Russia to export it lest they lose what vital foreign currency they get from the trade.

I’ve always been of the opinion, instead of stopping Russian exports, just give Ukraine more guns and equipment, as a apology for not stopping the trade.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

What we haven't seen is collapse on an operational or strategic scale. 

Minor quibble but I think we have seen two operational collapses - the first drive at Kyiv out of the North, and Kharkiv.  Kherson was not a collapse so much as a withdrawal.  The three of these combined could be taken as strategic collapse but I would want to see more stuff happening deeper in Russia to call it.  All them folks - most well educated and rich - running for the border is a pretty good sign that not everyone in Russia in on board.

[FancyCat]

 

[FancyCat]

 

[Huba]

9 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

General Gromadziński who I quoted in length a bit earlier, which spurred the recent discussion about tank, said also that he's not perfectly happy with PL introducing 8 (!!!) turreted 120mm mortars per mechanized battalion. He wants 12, 1 per platoon. We'll probably see AA radars being increasingly pushed down the land forced organization, to counter drones and such. Making them capable of counter-battery observation too does not seem to be a huge stretch, modern AESA types seem to be capable of that. Add one to another and you have the answer to that I guess.
Of course just being futuristic and having a swarm of drones in the air several kilometers before your positions all the time would counter that too...
 

 

Edited December 17, 2022 by Huba

[Grossman]

An assessment. 

 

 

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, paxromana said:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html

Extensive and detailed report on just how downright bad the entire Russian side of the 'SMO' has been ... behind a paywall, unfortunately, but worth reading.

Times article has very little new to the board, but it is very well done. If are trying to persuade relatives at Christmas it would be the place to start.

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

The picture painted in the NYT article (it's very good detailed reading), is that of a Putin who if he orders a 2nd offensive on Kiyv, will get it. Of course, perception and reality are often different but certainly this invasion occurred with nearly no internal Russian pushback.

Also that hyperbole about Putin being a Tsar and the Russian people merely being serfs, well the article does not disspell that hyperbole.

No reason to hope internal issues will toss Russia out of the war.

There will be no hope, right up until the Russian army dissolves, when is a hard question, though.

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

You understand folks that such little military humour makes no little harm to your cause, right?

Just like some military people openly parading with portraits of massive murderer Shuchevycz or those stupid songs about "our father Bandera" that even half-official Twitter accounts are absolutelly not shy of. I get it is very difficult to controll such big volunteer military, but I frankly heard several stories from our volunteers supplying soldiers at the front of some brigade commanders (chiefly 28th, but also 57th, 58th, 92nd + some at northern fronts) not giving a fook if they soldiers openly wear nazi, Wehrmacht, OUN/UPA or other ethnonationalistic symbolic. Russian propaganda aside, we already saw way too many examples of this **** during capture of Kherson and at Bakhmut.

 

Ok, to change the mood:

 

People in combat for long enough literally go more than a little nuts. The was a scandal during the Korean war where U.S. soldiers had taken to putting the SKULLs of North Korean soldiers on their tanks, they were quite pleased with the effect. The Pentagon was much less so....

[FancyCat]

can’t find better sourcing, but notably, this tank has their own personal drone for recon. 

 

[Yet]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sooo... let's talk some more about the concern (certain concern in his mind) that General Zaluzhny expressed about a Russian winter offensive.  The man is certainly an authority to take seriously, so I do.

We've already theorized that a fairly large chunk of the partially mobilized men have not gone into Ukraine, but instead are in Belarus and other locations.  We've theorized that in part it's due to shortages of weaponry, which is what General Zaluzhny himself stated.  His thinking is that they've held back these guys to allow new production and scavenging (from Belarus, Iran, and elsewhere) to procure enough equipment to outfit these guys.  Then, in one move, they'll be committed to (probably) a single effort.  Taking on Kyiv again or trying to bust up Ukraine's positions in the south are his two guesses.

If Russia tries for Kyiv again they are going to run exactly the same risks they ran the first time, but much worse because Ukraine has already done this once successfully and Russia hasn't changed the variables in its favor for a second go around.  Even if somewhat successful, it should be clear to Russia that taking Kyiv will not stop the war.  That might have been possible in February 2022, but it won't be in 2023.  It will distract Ukraine, for sure, but the likely end result is Russia gets slaughtered in the north and the lines remain largely the same elsewhere.

On the other hand, Ukraine has made it clear that next year the emphasis will be on moving towards Crimea.  As General General Zaluzhny pointed out, they only need to get to Melitopol to effectively neutralize Russia's land bridge.  Pushing Ukraine further north along the Dnepr makes it less likely Ukraine will get within HIMARS range of Crimea in 2023.  Further, if things are wildly successful then the rest of Donetsk could be up for the taking.  This is not a realistic scenario, but I think it's more realistic than taking and holding Kyiv. 

Trying to retake Luhansk is also possible, but... it's not a big prize.  However, it could be more doable and therefore more attractive.

So if Russia is planning something (which they probably are), the rational bet is on an action in the south.  But this is Russia we're talking about, so if the last year is any indication of what is to come next, then it will be Kyiv again.  Because it is that stupid.

Steve

Id assume RA would go for Charkov-Dnipro. Short lines from RU, cutting off UA supply lines, encircle UA, and shortest route to Dnjepr river.

[benpark]

36 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

this tank has their own personal drone for recon

That is absolutely brilliant. I wonder how that could be accommodated in future designs.

[Bulletpoint]

26 minutes ago, benpark said:

That is absolutely brilliant. I wonder how that could be accommodated in future designs.

I remember seeing that idea first time in the computer game Command and Conquer: Generals (2003)

Edited December 17, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[dan/california]

25 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I remember seeing that idea first time in the computer game Command and Conquer: Generals (2003)

I really want to see it, and a lot of ideas like it in "Combat Mission: The Future of War"

 

[akd]

Speculation here that the cluster munition seen in video posted earlier might be 120mm M971:

Would be interesting as it would be the first confirmed use of foreign-supplied conventional cluster munitions (that bring with them UXO issues).

Edited December 17, 2022 by akd

[Bulletpoint]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I really want to see it, and a lot of ideas like it in "Combat Mission: The Future of War"

 

By the time they finish making that game, it will already be the past of war

I think drone technology will be developing very fast over the coming years. Maybe each armoured vehicle will have a "drone hive" with several drones to always keep one or more in the air while others return to recharge.

It's a bit like the way the tank in WW2 had already been around for many years, but it was only with the outbreak of the war that it really started to develop rapidly.

 

Edited December 17, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

can’t find better sourcing, but notably, this tank has their own personal drone for recon. 

 

Just a matter of time until the gunner has two joysticks - one for selecting the drone's view (with the drone flying automatically to provide the view) and the other to target what the drone sees.  If they're integrated and you have good local coordinate systems you can have tanks indirect firing AP over the horizon at other armored vehicles.  The advantage over rockets is velocity of the round making it harder to intercept, along with size and ROF, so a tank can carry more AP shells than ATGMs and put more of them over the horizon in less time.  Fancy versions might include having the drone paint over the horizon targets with a laser and rounds that look for the laser indicator.

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

People in combat for long enough literally go more than a little nuts. The was a scandal during the Korean war where U.S. soldiers had taken to putting the SKULLs of North Korean soldiers on their tanks, they were quite pleased with the effect. The Pentagon was much less so....

True, except these were individual cases and "a scandal", like you wrote, which were supressed by superiors and investigated. The level of this kind of sick esthetic circling among military in current conflict is too plentiful not to be widely tolerated by superiors/wider population in this case.

Btw. Americans in Korea or Vietnam were not forced to basically crowdsource their war effort- and well-being of entire society in fact- from donations from across the world, in the era of instant digital communication. This fact should switch additional red buttons among Ukrainian authorities for tolerance for such "pranks"- yet for some reason, it does not seem so.

 

https://nv.ua/ukr/world/geopolitics/putin-gotoviy-priynyati-vtrati-u-300-tis-soldativ-krajina-chlen-nato-u-povidomlenni-svojim-soyuznikam-50291645.html

This article cites NYT' source claiming that Putin is supposedly prepared to accept even lossess on level of 300k. Perhaps somebody read this piece? Valid work or another empty journalist scoup by "unnamed NATO official"?

[dan/california]

37 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

True, except these were individual cases and "a scandal", like you wrote, which were supressed by superiors and investigated. The level of this kind of sick esthetic circling among military in current conflict is too plentiful not to be widely tolerated by superiors/wider population in this case.

Btw. Americans in Korea or Vietnam were not forced to basically crowdsource their war effort- and well-being of entire society in fact- from donations from across the world, in the era of instant digital communication. This fact should switch additional red buttons among Ukrainian authorities for tolerance for such "pranks"- yet for some reason, it does not seem so.

 

https://nv.ua/ukr/world/geopolitics/putin-gotoviy-priynyati-vtrati-u-300-tis-soldativ-krajina-chlen-nato-u-povidomlenni-svojim-soyuznikam-50291645.html

This article cites NYT' source claiming that Putin is supposedly prepared to accept even lossess on level of 300k. Perhaps somebody read this piece? Valid work or another empty journalist scoup by "unnamed NATO official"?

I think the bigger problem is that EVERYBODY has camera. So all the stupids pranks, and even worse ideas get recorded. Since the worse the idea is the more likely it is to go viral, it is sort of a snowballing problem. Can Ukraine get a handle on the problem? I wouldn't want the job...

The NYT article is a huge rundown on the whole war with an emphasis on the legion of Russian mistakes that got us to this point. I suspect at least some Russian officials/apparatchiks gave reasonably honest backward looking commentary just to get that one line in about the Russians not quitting. We will be able to judge if Putin was happy with the Result by the prevalence of the that strange window falling virus in Moscow over the next few weeks. The information war is almost as important as counter battery in the war, and both sides are contesting it vigorously. I also suspect certain bits of the shambolic Russian state apparatus used it too communicate with other bits of the Russian Government. 

 

Edited December 17, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

The most disturbing bit of the article is that General Milley %100 bought the pre war analysis that Ukraine was going to get steamrolled. If he had been more perceptive a lot of things might have gotten done sooner.

[danfrodo]

50 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

This article cites NYT' source claiming that Putin is supposedly prepared to accept even lossess on level of 300k. Perhaps somebody read this piece? Valid work or another empty journalist scoup by "unnamed NATO official"?

I have no doubt that if it meant saving his own skin there's no amount of other dead people that would faze Putin.  And if it meant getting some kind of a win out of this war, I am sure he'd not blink at sacrificing several million russians, provided his own skin was also saved.

Hitler in the bunker didn't kill himself to save Germany more suffering.  He had simply run out of options.  If sacrificing another million germans to save his own skin for another year would've worked he would've chosen that without a second thought.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, benpark said:

That is absolutely brilliant. I wonder how that could be accommodated in future designs.

I don't.  Nor do I wonder how UAVs might be incorporated into UGVs.  Nope, I don't wonder at all

Steve