How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hmmm... maybe the speculation that these teeth aren't solid concrete is true.  A thin veneer over something else would do that.  At the very least it looks some were poorly mixed.  No way should concrete be flaking off like that.  The comparison picture to WW2 teeth makes that clear.

Steve

Looks weird to me.  It is harder to fake dragons teeth then it is to just pour dumb concrete and cure it properly.  I mean the dragons tooth is not the height of obstacle sophistication.

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Nah I suspect you're reading too much into the tea leaves, esp. Re Wagner/bakhmut. 

Opportunistic political land grab, motivated by cultural chauvinism and an unbridled ego seems more fitting.

If resources were the aim then by any measure Russian oligarchy would have economically raped the Donbass, hot cease fire or no. But they didn't, which implies that it was viewed as Putin's playground, his project and not for sharing. 

Putin has no interest in long term investment or economic exploitation of the Donbass - we know this because he has done othing to foster it. He views it as both a military and cultural front line, the bleeding edge of Ruski Mir,  not a plunderable national economic asset. 

I agree.  The reason Putin went into Ukraine in 2014 was for political reasons more than anything.  His goal was to destabilize and absorb Ukraine to keep a weak buffer between Russia and the EU.  Amongst other reasons   Grabbing resources while he was at it, for sure, was part of it.

I do not think Russia wants Ukraine's resources as much as it doesn't want Ukraine to have them.  In Russia's mind a prosperous neighbor is a dangerous neighbor.  Plain and simple.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Looks weird to me.  It is harder to fake dragons teeth then it is to just pour dumb concrete and cure it properly.  I mean the dragons tooth is not the height of obstacle sophistication.

I agree.  A foam filler is possible, but that probably involves injection molding and that's not cheap.  I don't think simple expanded foam would hold up to transport, not to mention deployment.  So they are probably concrete, but true to Russia's standard of quality control.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Yet said:

the strikes at Engels and Saratov hurt RU, domestic RU support and were sweet for UA morale, as was the attack on the Sebasfleet, mil.airport on Krim and on the Kerch bridge. 

the bridge unfolded as a serious hit, but i wonder why UA didnt wait with these surprise attacks untill they can totally destroy the target while still having the act of surprise. 

this hit also hurts, especially short term, but it isnt devastating for RU in terms that that all bombers and facilities are destroyed. And the same counts for the krim airfield and the fleet (and i think that the bridge attack turned out pretty lucky in terms of damage done and duration that it is out of order). 

Ukraine needs to make Russia think twice about continuing its terror attacks.  It also needs to keep domestic morale up.  These three attacks, and likely more to come, achieve that.

1 hour ago, Yet said:

also all these attacks have not been called by UA officials. Could it be that there is some kind of half-attached (UA?) team developing drones and hitting with them without direct command from the UA generals?

Highly unlikely.  These are big drones that likely came from military stocks with expensive modifications.  Not something that would be done outside of Ukraine's chain of command.

Steve

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Rokko said:

I remember a post by grigb where he translated something said by "civilian Girkin" (Neyman or something?) about another consequence of Western sanctions being a lack of modern seeds for planting and the Russians, having neglected to develop any on their own, now having to resort to older types of seed with less yield. Maybe related?

Production and distribution are two different issues. At the micro level Russia was a market economy with a very small safety net nine months ago. War and sanctions are degrading that market economy at a fast, and probably exponentially increasing rate. So they may have enough grain in silos somewhere, but they are going to have to revive a more or less Soviet system to get it baked into bread and distributed, or a bunch of people are going to get very hungry. And even the ongoing fiasco that is the Kremlin knows that it will be bad if there is no bread at the end of the bread line.

[womble]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

...they are going to have to revive a more or less Soviet system to get it baked into bread and distributed...

And they're going to have to find replacements for the civilian trucks we saw them dragoon into service once their military logistics started to crumble (that have since probably been abandoned in a muddy Ukrainian field, or been blessed by St Himars).

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukraine needs to make Russia think twice about continuing its terror attacks.  It also needs to keep domestic morale up.  These three attacks, and likely more to come, achieve that.

Highly unlikely.  These are big drones that likely came from military stocks with expensive modifications.  Not something that would be done outside of Ukraine's chain of command.

Steve

Two things about the airbase drone attacks. First they were fifty feet, and one sympathetic explosion away from doing a LOT more damage. Second, and perhaps in contradiction to my first point, maybe the U.S. asked them not to do an overwhelming strike the first time to allow for some diplomatic maneuvering. "Look Vlad, this is going very badly for you, but it can go much worse, on last chance to fold in a controlled way" or words to that effect.

[Billy Ringo]

Two questions to ponder:

1. Is there any semi-significant positives for Russia continuing this war outside of ego and pride?  Any material/financial resource benefits have and continue to be stripped and the cost of recouping those potential benefits goes up every day.   Ego and pride--that's all I got.  Virtually every other outcome gets worse the longer this continues--including their prospects for whatever they may consider a "victory."

2. Prigozhin's motives and actions intrigue me.  Yes, power corrupts.  But maybe there's more to it.  Could his time in prison resulting in him, supposedly, being labeled a "cock" be driving his actions?  Some type of retribution and proving himself to those in that community?  If his motives are primarily emotional then his actions would be more difficult to decipher and predict.  Maybe he's just bat**** crazy--which makes him dangerous to both the Ukrainians AND to anyone in the Russian prison system.

 

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, womble said:

And they're going to have to find replacements for the civilian trucks we saw them dragoon into service once their military logistics started to crumble (that have since probably been abandoned in a muddy Ukrainian field, or been blessed by St Himars).

So they will have to dragoon trucks from other parts of their economy for the aforementioned food distribution, and all their problems just spiral. A poorly planned reversion to  a semi communist economy is a bad thing. It would be a bad thing with competent administration, with the shambles that is Russia....

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Two things about the airbase drone attacks. First they were fifty feet, and one sympathetic explosion away from doing a LOT more damage. Second, and perhaps in contradiction to my first point, maybe the U.S. asked them not to do an overwhelming strike the first time to allow for some diplomatic maneuvering. "Look Vlad, this is going very badly for you, but it can go much worse, on last chance to fold in a controlled way" or words to that effect.

Sadly, the Rat Czar will not yield.  This war has continued for 9 months for only one reason -- Putin's survival (save face, etc).  He is completely tied to this war and cannot back out.  Putin's propaganda presents this war as existential for RU -- which is actually true but in the opposite way these clowns mean.  RU survival depends on getting out, not staying in.  The effect on this insanity on 144M russians (and 44M UKR) is irrelevant.  Putin must die.  He will never leave UKR territory unless forced out, like w Kiev, Kharkiv, and Kherson.  My hope for the attacks on RU is that it finally causes some faction in RU to kill Putin.  

[A Canadian Cat]

Reordered for my benefit

On 12/2/2022 at 10:57 PM, Battlefront.com said:

I could be wrong, but hey... even if I am, at least I'd feel better having a few million Russians freezing their butts off this winter

While a part of me would also feel good about a few million Russians feeling a part of what their government is dishing out...

 

On 12/2/2022 at 10:57 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Why do I think this might work to lessen Russian resolve when I do NOT think similar attacks will lessen Ukrainian resolve?  Because Ukrainians know this is about their survival and so they have to prevail.  I do not think the average Russian has the same belief. 

I think we can look back at history and see that this just does not happen. Has it ever? I am unaware of any time hitting civilian targets "weakened the resolve of the enemy". People throughout history have said those kinds of words and it just doesn't come true. Normally it strengthens the resolve of the enemy.

Don't forget the Russian people are not being told anything that resembles the truth so having the Ukrainians make their lives more miserable would feed into the propaganda that the Ukrainians are evil etc. It would also give Putin something to talk about to distract from the way the war is going inside Ukraine. So, yeah I am nearly certain that doing that would help Putin not hinder him.

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

Is there any semi-significant positives for Russia continuing this war outside of ego and pride? 

The regime vs country dynamic is stark here. A perfectly executed three day takeover of Ukraine would have been a net negative for the Russian people. Every day of the current train wreck is beyond a disaster for Russia as a whole. But for the REGIME, a successful coup de main would have been a huge win, and admitting defeat now after so much blood and treasure has been expended is regarded as suicide. So it will go on, until it just CAN'T.

Edited December 6, 2022 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, IanL said:

I think we can look back at history and see that this just does not happen. Has it ever? I am unaware of any time hitting civilian targets "weakened the resolve of the enemy". People throughout history have said those kinds of words and it just doesn't come true. Normally it strengthens the resolve of the enemy

Fair point, but there's other things in the mix.  The level of dissatisfaction with Putin is significant and rising.  As amazing as the Russian citizen's capacity for putting up with ill treatment, historically they do have a breaking point.  While there might be a short term bump for support of the Russian state, it could be that they think a different leader might do better against Ukraine. 

The other thing to consider is how poorly the Russian state might handle the lights going out.  Patriotism and love of the glorious leader might wear thin when it's -20c and there's no heat or reliable food.  Unlike Ukraine, there's a sense amongst the people that such suffering is not in any way the fault of their government.  Russians might not be so sure.  Add this to the plethora of other problems Russians face and it might add up to something.

Steve

[MSBoxer]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Nah I suspect you're reading too much into the tea leaves, esp. Re Wagner/bakhmut. 

Opportunistic political land grab, motivated by cultural chauvinism and an unbridled ego seems more fitting.

If resources were the aim then by any measure Russian oligarchy would have economically raped the Donbass, hot cease fire or no. But they didn't, which implies that it was viewed as Putin's playground, his project and not for sharing. 

Putin has no interest in long term investment or economic exploitation of the Donbass - we know this because he has done othing to foster it. He views it as both a military and cultural front line, the bleeding edge of Ruski Mir,  not a plunderable national economic asset. 

Is it possible that RU is incapable of exploiting the resources without western support, be it financial or technical?  When the 2014 Donbass failed, and sanctions were put in place that western support was not forthcoming.  Perhaps Putin thought that if he were able to decisively control all of Ukraine without contention with a puppet govt then support would be more forthcoming.

Or could it be a denial of resources?  I would think that a strong successful Ukraine is a threat to Putin.  With so many familial connections between UK and RU it would be hard to hide.  Similar to how West Berlin was a beacon of success shining just a few yards away from the relatively depressed East Berlin.

Edited December 6, 2022 by MSBoxer

[FancyCat]

Eh, if we expand the term "resources", I think there's a great argument for the current invasion and annexation, had it been successful, maybe Russia would not have materially benefited, but the ego, prestige, the shattering of the international order, the marked decline of the west are all benefits for the regime, if not Russia as a whole.

Also, consider the Soviet Union. Took some time, but Ukraine eventually became a compliant integral part of the USSR. (Took a lot of genocide but Putin had plans for that as we know) Consider Chechnya, tho much smaller, no doubt a puppet regime woild have been installed with a long term plan at union state status akin to Belarus.

4 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

Is it possible that RU is incapable of exploiting the resources without western support, be it financial or technical?  When the 2014 Donbass failed, and sanctions were put in place that western support was not forthcoming.  Perhaps Putin thought that if he were able to decisively control all of Ukraine without contention with a puppet govt then support would be more forthcoming.

The Soviet Union was able to happily trade resources and profit for foreign companies to come in and invest expertise and money, no doubt had Ukraine folded, the same would have occurred eventually.

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Fair point, but there's other things in the mix.  The level of dissatisfaction with Putin is significant and rising.  As amazing as the Russian citizen's capacity for putting up with ill treatment, historically they do have a breaking point.  While there might be a short term bump for support of the Russian state, it could be that they think a different leader might do better against Ukraine. 

The other thing to consider is how poorly the Russian state might handle the lights going out.  Patriotism and love of the glorious leader might wear thin when it's -20c and there's no heat or reliable food.  Unlike Ukraine, there's a sense amongst the people that such suffering is not in any way the fault of their government.  Russians might not be so sure.  Add this to the plethora of other problems Russians face and it might add up to something.

Steve

I'd say the key here is whether the people in question believe they are in a war of choice or a war of survival.  If one believes they are in a war of survival, then bombing & terrorism won't break them.  If they view the war as a choice, then suffering can make a difference.  For UKR, giving in means losing huge territory and giving Putin time to rebuild and restart his war in a few years.  For Russians, giving in means their lives will improve over time, and dramatically -- relative to the cost of continuing the war.  Many (most) russians don't know this reality, but the key to getting folks to change their thinking might be to bring the war to them, to get them to start questioning.  In UKR questioning the war leads to "we're F-ed if we give in".  In RU questioning the war will lead to "this is insane!  Hang Putin!".

[Kinophile]

37 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I agree.  A foam filler is possible, but that probably involves injection molding and that's not cheap.  I don't think simple expanded foam would hold up to transport, not to mention deployment.  So they are probably concrete, but true to Russia's standard of quality control.

Steve

That looks like concrete plaster on a steel pyramidal box?

Maybe we should bear down on the endemic corruption aspect?

If we look at these through the eyes of an enterprising supply Col. General Korruptovich, well then:

• Don't pour full, proper re-barred concrete pyramids. They're heavy and awkward. Need numbers of Private Konskriptoviches. = costly. Bad, very bad.
• Instead use these...box things...with concrete cast over them - looks just like dragons teeth but lighter.
• Scale it up to thousands of them and transporting them now uses a lot less fuel than the heavier, fully concrete ones = savings (yay good)
• You can stack more on a truck, use less trucks and get them to the site quicker = savings (e.g if you charge for 10 trucks but use 6)
• You can also place them quicker, getting the job "done" with your reduced workforce and crucially photographed sooner. = kudos up the chain, make the bosses look good = CYA in advance
• Also use unpaid Mobiks so again = more savings

So if I wanted to make a tidy sum and I was in charge of making, transporting and placing these...things...then even just off my civvy head there are lots of opportunities to make money and superficially, on paper and in photographs, achieve the desired end result - long lines of "dragon teeth" snaking across the landscape. Everyone's happy, paid off, looks good, state media giving great play to your work, and because there's a war on, further contracts are pretty much a given.

Nice.

Oh and look, there's talk of doing this on the entire UKR/RUS border...time to do some measurements on ye fiendish Kapitalist google maps...

[MSBoxer]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

That looks like concrete plaster on a steel pyramidal box?

Maybe we should bear down on the endemic corruption aspect?

If we look at these through the eyes of an enterprising supply Col. General Korruptovich, well then:

• Don't pour full, proper re-barred concrete pyramids. They're heavy and awkward. Need numbers of Private Konskriptoviches. = costly. Bad, very bad.
• Instead use these...box things...with concrete cast over them - looks just like dragons teeth but lighter.
• Scale it up to thousands of them and transporting them now uses a lot less fuel than the heavier, fully concrete ones = savings (yay good)
• You can stack more on a truck, use less trucks and get them to the site quicker = savings (e.g if you charge for 10 trucks but use 6)
• You can also place them quicker, getting the job "done" with your reduced workforce and crucially photographed sooner. = kudos up the chain, make the bosses look good = CYA in advance
• Also use unpaid Mobiks so again = more savings

So if I wanted to make a tidy sum and I was in charge of making, transporting and placing these...things...then even just off my civvy head there are lots of opportunities to make money and superficially, on paper and in photographs, achieve the desired end result - long lines of "dragon teeth" snaking across the landscape. Everyone's happy, paid off, looks good, state media giving great play to your work, and because there's a war on, further contracts are pretty much a given.

Nice.

Oh and look, there's talk of doing this on the entire UKR/RUS border...time to do some measurements on ye fiendish Kapitalist google maps...

Build them with no bottom so you can nest the steel core for shipment, slap some concrete on them and drop in place.  
Instead of dragon's teeth you have Matryoshka teeth.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

44 minutes ago, IanL said:

Has it ever? I am unaware of any time hitting civilian targets "weakened the resolve of the enemy". People throughout history have said those kinds of words and it just doesn't come true.

Rotterdam 1940. Madrid underground terrorist bombing 2004. And, obviously, Hiroshima & Nagasaki 1945

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Yet said:

also all these attacks have not been called by UA officials. Could it be that there is some kind of half-attached (UA?) team developing drones and hitting with them without direct command from the UA generals?

Decisive NO. Just we also can play a game "It wasn't us"

[Bulletpoint]

About the dragon teeth, I think it's just that if the concrete is not properly mixed, it hardens with cracks going through it, and if rainwater enters those cracks, then the block cracks when the water freezes and expands.

Especially if it goes above freezing in the daytime and then below during the nights, you get multiple cycles of expansion and cracking.

The reason for not mixing the concrete is probably just that the Russians are in a big rush to produce as many of them as possible, and stirring the concrete mix takes time.

I'd expect the same to happen with a lot of those concrete pillboxes they are churning out.

[Kinophile]

29 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Rotterdam 1940.

Probably the greatest example, and somewhat the only major one. In many ways, it was the right call. The war was already lost, for Holland.

29 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Madrid underground terrorist bombing 2004

Sorta - there was already a very significant portion of the populace against the Iraq War and the Bush Admin in principle. The bombings horrified and shocked many Spanish but it was more within the context of confirmation of their fears against foreign adventures. If the Spanish were more unified in their support of the war then probably less effect. 

29 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Hiroshima & Nagasaki 1945

Sorta, again, I believe? From what I've read the Japanese high command was inhumanly disconnected to the suffering of their people. Any reading of their plans for homeland defense against Allied invasion immediately implies human suffering of their own people ona  truly gigantic, almost civilizational scale. IMSMR, there was even talk amongst the more extreme Generals that even if just 10% (I think) survived that the Japanese nation could continue on in the mountains and hills and that would count as a win.

Theres plenty of discussion that even though the bombs stunned the Japanese leadership, it wasnt from a human, moralistic aspect (the loss of life) but from a militaristic POV - that they had no counter to the weapon, that they themselves' did not have it, that battlefield defeat on the home islands was now far more likely. They would lose the battle and suffer dishonour as a nation was more horrifying than the loss of life. 

Even then, they were nonetheless still pulling the last of the Manchurian divisions home for defense - but the Soviet attack finally cut that off and worse, implied a communist invasion/takeover of the home islands. And Communism loomed larger in the hidebound Japnese elite's fears than an American superweapon. Only then did Hirohito throw in the towel.

Or so my understanding goes.

Edited December 6, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

About the dragon teeth, I think it's just that if the concrete is not properly mixed, it hardens with cracks going through it, and if rainwater enters those cracks, then the block cracks when the water freezes and expands.

Especially if it goes above freezing in the daytime and then below during the nights, you get multiple cycles of expansion and cracking.

The reason for not mixing the concrete is probably just that the Russians are in a big rush to produce as many of them as possible, and stirring the concrete mix takes time.

I'd expect the same to happen with a lot of those concrete pillboxes they are churning out.

Yes but look at Oryx's photo - there's visibly a base object that has a "skin" of concrete, no?

[Haiduk]

Konstantin Mashovets claimed UKR troops as far as on 4th Dec cut off the road between Svatove and Kreminna in Chervonopopivka area. He didn't confirm directly that village under UKR control, but likely it is already a grey zone. 

No official confirmations

Edited December 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Yes but look at Oryx's photo - there's visibly a base object that has a "skin" of concrete, no?

A bit difficult to see on the photo because of the lighting. Could just be a crack that splits off a very smooth piece.

But I guess it could also be some kind of internal metal pyramid with a concrete covering. I just think it would take way longer to produce large numbers of those. But they might be less heavy and easier to transport.